Bord Bia DAFM Live Exporters Meeting Joe Burke January 2018 AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009
Livestock Review and Outlook Export Performance 2017 Herd Profile / Calf Births Market Situation: Netherlands Italy Spain
2017 Live Exports reach 188,000 hd (+30%) 200,000 Finished/Adult Cattle 150,000 Weanlings/Stores 100,000 Calves 50,000 0 2015 2016 2017 Calf exports 40% higher, at 101,600 hd Weanlings & stores up 20%, to 59,200 hd Adult cattle grew by 17%, to 27,100 hd
Live Cattle Exports 2017 Distribution of Live Exports from Ireland to w/e. 30 th Dec. (head) 2016 2017 % change Total NI GB Italy Spain Netherlands Belgium Other EU Turkey Other int. mkt.s 145,437 24,531 6,785 18,558 37,008 27,041 432 9,212 19,269 2,601 187,870 26,073 5,851 19,441 50,451 41,848 5,525 5,709 30,562 2,410 +30% +6% -14% +5% +36% +55% +1500% -38% +60% -7%
Live Sheep Exports 2017 Distribution of Live Sheep Exports from Ireland 2016 vs 2017 (000 head) 2016 2017 % change Total Belgium France Germany Italy UK Netherlands Singapore 48,036 8,507 21,142 4,901 1,677 2,094 7,844 1,871 35,349 4,653 15,837 5,144 468 1,109 8,112 0-27% -45% -25% +5% -72% -47% +3% -100% 75% of live sheep exports (26,623) occurred in August Factory throughput of sheep reached a 10-year high of 2.95m.
Herd Profile / Calf Births AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009
000 head National Cattle Herd (2007 2017) 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Dairy Cows Suckler Cows
2,400,000 Calf Registrations up 1.3% in 2017 (w/e. 15/12) +30,000 2,000,000 1,600,000 1,200,000 800,000 400,000 +44,000 2016 2017-14,000 0 Source - ICBF / AIM Total Dairy Suckler
800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Source - AIM Calf Registrations by Breed Jan-Nov 2017 vs 16-6% +2% +11% -7% +18% 2016 2017 +2% -10% FR LM CH AA HE SIM BB
Male Cattle Numbers by Age Category on 1 st of November 1,200,000-9,000 1,000,000 +8,500 800,000 600,000 Source: AIM 2016 2017 400,000 200,000 0 +6,500 0-12 12-24 24-36
Female Beef Cattle No.s by Age Category on 1 st of November 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 +30,000 Source: AIM +5,500 2016 2017 +18,000 0-12 12-24 24-36
Average Prices: Weanling Bulls /kg LW Source - IFJ Martwatch Top 1/3 Average Bottom 1/3 2015 2.88 2.48 2.06 2016 2.75 2.35 1.82 2017 2.78 2.36 1.78 +1.1% +0.4% -2.2% Average Prices of male dairy calves /hd each spring Source - ICBF 2014 2015 2016 2017 95 123 97 106
The Netherlands AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009
Live Calf Imports NL (2012 2017) 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000-865,476 858,554 847,573 820,762 738,793 720,230 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 *2017 (up to week 49) (source: RVO)
Live Calf Imports NL (2016 2017) Origin Week 49 2016 Week 49 2017 %Change YOY Bel/Lux 44,995 59,830 +33% Germany 522,264 531,619 +2% Denmark 27,048 22,746-16% Ireland 2017 26,137 35,667 +36% Estonia 11,517 14,715 +28% Latvia 25,180 24,928-1% Lithuania 13,618 9,065-33% Poland 15,448 2,915-81% Czech Republic 14,905 17,042 +14% Slovakia 284 1,703 +500% Total 2017 701,396 720,230 +3% (source: RVO) Ireland is the third largest exporter of calves to NL after Germany and Bel/Lux
Dutch Calves (50+kg) Prices 2016-17 YEAR HIGH LOW 2017 225/head 123/head 2016 180/head 105/head (source: De Kalverhouder)
Dutch White Veal Prices 2016-17 YEAR HIGH LOW 2017 5.10/kg 4.05/kg 2016 5.05/kg 3.85/kg (source: De Kalverhouder)
Dutch Rosé Veal (<8 months) Prices 2016-17 YEAR HIGH LOW 2017 4.10/kg 3.38/kg 2016 4.03/kg 3.20/kg (source: De Kalverhouder
Dutch Rosé Veal (>8 months) Prices 2016-17 YEAR HIGH LOW 2017 3.75/kg 3.23/kg 2016 3.70/kg 3.05/kg (source: De Kalverhouder)
Dutch Milk Powder Prices 2016-17 YEAR HIGH LOW 2017 193/100kg 135/100kg 2016 198/100kg 131/100kg (source: De Kalverhouder)
Dutch Whey Powder Prices 2016-17 YEAR HIGH LOW 2017 97/100kg 57/100kg 2016 85/100kg 49/100kg (source: De Kalverhouder)
The Netherlands 2017 Strong increase in calf purchase prices: average of 165/head vs 136/hd (2016). Veal prices have recovered strongly since autumn. Over the same period, milk powder and whey prices have fallen steadily. Dutch dairy herd had to reduce by 200,000 cows, as a result of environmental regulations. Advertising in De Kalverhouder & other producer publications
Italy AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009
Italian Live Cattle Imports in 2017 million head 1.28 1.22 + 0.3% 1.15 1.16 1.14 1.11 1.15 1,153 1.03 1.03 0.9 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (E)
Irish Live Cattle Exports to Italy (2011 2017) 60,000 53,677 50,000 40,000 30,000 37,855 26,048 29,999 24,886 20,000 18,558 19,441 10,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Italian Live Cattle Imports by Country (Jan-Nov) 800,000 +5% 600,000 400,000 2016 2017 200,000 0-19% -38% +5% -14% +21% -48% France Austria Poland Ireland Germany Romania Czech Rep. -22% Other
Italian Live Cattle Imports - % Market Share 2017 82.61% 4.59% 1.31% 1.84% 2.14% 1.67% 0.32% 5.52% France Austria Poland Ireland Germany Romania Czech Rep.
800,000 Increase in Italian Cattle Slaughtering in 2017 600,000 400,000 + 2.44% + 2.10% + 7.50% 2016 Jan - Aug 2017 Jan - Aug 200,000 0 Young bulls Heifers Cows Source ISMEA
Italian Market Summary Marginal increase in cattle imports of about 0.3% Cattle imports from Ireland up 5% French weanlings continue to dominate, with >82% of imports Increase in Italian beef production (~5%), while consumption is showing signs of signs of recovery. Strong increase in finished cattle prices in late 17. (U grade bulls @ 4.42/kg in Dec. 17 vs. 4.15 in 16.) Italian livestock market outlook most positive in years
Spain AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009
Spanish Market Performance 2017 Spanish beef production very similar to 2016. Spanish retail data shows beef sales falling (-4%) Cattle imports increased by nearly 10% and exports by 59% Beef exports increased by 4.7% to 87,000t (Jan-Jun) Calves <80kg imports are becoming even more relevant >70% of imports Irish exports to Spain up to November increased by 36%, reaching a figure of 50,451 heads.
3,000,000 Slaughterings (hds) & Production (tn) 2,500,000 2,000,000 2,506,734 2,013,745 2,314,752 2,222,003 2,333,895 2,373,850 2,378,934 +0.2% 1,500,000 National Kill (Heads) 1,000,000 500,000 643,167 661,732 598,425 604,112 533,665 591,319 580,840 578,600 626,104 637,013 632,900 National Kill (tn) +0.6% - 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Imports by Origin
Spanish Exports to 3 rd Countries Jan-August (hds)
Crossed Male R-3 <331kg Carcass Weight Price Evolution 2013-2017 ( /kg carcass)
2018 Outlook Outlook for the Spanish finishing sector is positive. Continued strong demand for calves Spain is increasinly positioning itself as a serious supplier of livestock into 3rd countries
Live Bovine Imports in MENA 2017
Live bovine imports Live bovine imports in North Africa in million USD $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 $142 $141 $91 $96 $87 $58 $14 2015 2016 ALGERIA EGYPT LIBYA MOROCCO $33
Morocco livestock business Live bovine imports in Morocco by country in % 5% 2% 3% 44% 46% France Germany Spain Netherlands Others Source: Moroccan customs
Algeria livestock business Live bovine imports in Algeria by country in % 6% 5% 2% 2% France Germany Austria Spain Netherlands 85% Source: Algerian customs
Libya livestock business Live bovine imports in Libya by country in % 11% 3% 2% 13% 71% Spain Romania France Ireland Croatia Source: Libyan customs
Egypt livestock business Live bovine imports in Egypt by country in % 8% 5% 7% 19% Spain Brazil Sudan Hungary 14% 19% Ukraine Germany Uruguay 13% Others 17% Source: Egyptian customs
Summary AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009
Summary Live exports recovered by 30% in 2017. Exports increased to most markets. Dutch veal market looking more positive: fewer domestic supplies; milk powder, calf and veal prices French weanlings highly dominant in Italy. Spain remains a key market for quality calves. EU beef demand, and prices, increasing. Continued focus on international markets
Bord Bia DAFM Live Exporters Meeting Joe Burke January 2018 AIDAN COTTER CHIEF EXECUTIVE BORD BIA 28 JANUARY 2009