BASF our experience in China Joerg Wuttke, BASF China April 2005
BASF in Greater China BASF has been trading in China since 1885
Extensive Network Sales 2004 1.9bn Euro (2.5bn USD) Wholly-owned trading subsidiaries (6) Shenyang (viii) A. BASF China Ltd. (BCL) B. BASF East Asia Regional HQ Ltd. C. BASF (China) Co. Ltd. (BCH) D. BASF Trading (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. E. BASF Coatings International Trade (Shanghai) Co. Ltd. F. BASF Taiwan Ltd. Wholly-owned production facilities (4) Beijing (b) Jilin (vii) 1. BASF Colorants & Chemicals Co. Ltd. 2. BASF Chemicals Co. Ltd. 3. BASF Polyurethanes (China) Co. Ltd. 4. BASF Polyurethanes (Taiwan) Co. Ltd. Joint venture production facilities (9) Chengdu (g) Guangzhou(3,d) Hong Kong (A, B,c) Nanjing (e, i, iv) Shanghai (C, D, E, 1, 2, a, ii, iii, v, vi) Taipei (F,h) Hsinchu (4, ix) Qingdao (f) i. BASF-YPC Co. Ltd. ii. Shanghai BASF Polyurethane Co. Ltd iii. Shanghai Lianheng Isocyanate Co. Ltd iv. Yangzi-BASF Styrenics Co. Ltd. v. Shanghai Gaoqiao BASF Dispersions Co. Ltd. vi. BASF Shanghai Coatings Co. Ltd. vii. BASF-JCIC Neopentylglycol Co. Ltd. viii. BASF Vitamins Co. Ltd. ix. BASF Tai Ching Crop Protection Chemicals Corporation Offices (8) a. Shanghai b. Beijing c. Hong Kong d. Guangzhou e. Nanjing f. Qingdao g. Chengdu h. Taipei
Major Investment Projects in China Company Invest. [Mio. USD] Start up Under construction BYC Nanjing 2,900 * 2005 Beijing Under construction Isocyanates Caojing THF / PTHF Caojing 1,000* 300 * 2006 2005 Nanjing Caojing Verbund site Chemical site Site close to customers Hongkong * Total investment incl. utility / infrastructure
China s Changing Picture 1976 And 2004 975 million Population 1.3 billion Mao Zedong/Hua Guofeng Leader Hu Jintao 0 private sedans sold 3.3 million Jiang Qing Fashion icon Gong Li 0 Oil imports 3.4 million barrels a day $2.3 billion Annual U.S.-China trade $245 billion $1.1 billion surplus for U.S. Trade balance $175 billion deficit for U.S. Nonconvertible Currency convertible in trade None Stock trading Two exchanges Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, Unresolved territorial claims Taiwan, Soviet Border region, South China Sea islands South China Sea islands Source: AWSJ Feb 2004 and updated data
China s GDP as a share of world GDP 1750 - Today An early leader in technology, innovation, and the economy, China suffered a decline in global GDP generation and became increasingly marginalized by her Western competitors. % of World GDP At market prices % 40 30 20 10 0 First Opium War (1839-1842) Taiping Rebellion (1850-1865) Second Opium War (1856-1860) Sino-Japanese War (1894-1895) Boxer Rebellion (1900) 1700 1820 1890 1952 1978 1995 2002 Source: Angus Maddison, OECD 1913: China represents 15% of BASF s worldwide revenues 2003: China represents 5% of BASF s worldwide revenues
Size and growth of GDP segments 2000-2015 10 Services 8 Construction GDP: size 2000 = 1,169bn Euro growth = 6.5% p.a. Growth of segments 2000-2015 [% p.a.] 6 4 2 6.5 % Mining Agriculture Manufacturing GDP more driven by service sector and construction (infrastructure) Manufacturing and chemical demand expected to grow in line with GDP Combined growth rate of manufacturing, agriculture and construction below 6% p.a. 0 = Segment size 2015 0 200 400 600 Segment size 2000 [ bn]
SIMPLY PUT.CHINA IS GOING TO GROW FASTER THAN ANY OTHER ECONOMY (Urbanization of 10m people p.a.!!!!!) Real GDP development for selected economies CAGR 2003 US$ Billions (in 2002 US$) 2010F 03-10 2025F BASE CASE GDP at PPP CAGR 10-25 US 10,764 US 13,566 3.4% US 20,643 2.8% Japan 4,066 Japan 4,671 2.0% Japan 6,018 1.7% Germany 1,993 Germany 2,252 1.8% China** 5,598 23,031 6.4% U.K 1,602 China* 2,217 11,539 7.4% Germany 2,905 1.7% China 1,348 7,737 UK 1,921 2.6% UK 2,769 2.5% India 558 India 823 5.7% India 1,774 5.3% Korea 488 Korea 713 5.6% Korea 1,184 3.4% Brazil 453 Brazil 585 3.7% Brazil 1,062 4.1% Russia 370 Russia 498 4.3% Russia 834 3.5% Taiwan 292 Taiwan 415 5.2% Taiwan 686 3.4% * High case: real GDP of US$2.4 tri (8.6% CAGR) and GDP at PPP of US$11.4 tril (5.7% CAGR). Low case: real GDP of US$2.0 tri (5.9% CAGR) and GDP at PPP of US$11.7 tri (6.1% CAGR) ** High case: real GDP of US$7.2 tri (7.6% CAGR) and GDP at PPP of US$21.9 tri (4.4% CAGR). Low case: real GDP of US$3.7 tri (4.1% CAGR) and GDP at PPP of US$ 21.2 tri (4.1% CAGR) Source: WEFA-WMM; McKinsey analysis
Development of Chemical Markets in Asia Pacific 2002-2015 374 bn EUR +3.7% p.a. 598 bn EUR 15% 2002 1,210 bn EUR WE 25% SA 5% NAFTA 31% Asia Pacific 31% 2% 11% 4% 8% 11% 30% Other India ANZ Asean South Korea Greater China 4% 11% 11% 37% 2015 1,740 bn EUR Asia Pacific 34% SA 5% WE 23% NAFTA 29% 34% Japan 22% 2002 2015 1 Euro = 0.945 USD
Trade Flow of Chemicals in Greater China Export Import Local Production 36 40 Demand doubles between 2002 and 2015 Increase of local production from 72% to 80% Stable export ratio of 18% 18 28 160 Demand 200bn USD Demand 100bn USD 72 2002 2015 Source: BASF
Demand will Shift to Higher Value Chemicals Segmentation of the Chinese chemical market: 200 bn USD 35 % Consumer industries will shift to higher value products. This trend will be mirrored in the increased demand of specialty chemicals. Specialties Intermediates for Pharma Agricultural Products Base Chemicals 100 bn USD 21 % 15 % 6 % 58 % 18 % 7 % 40 % 2003 2015 (e) Source: A.T. Kearney, Frost & Sullivan, Henkel, DZ Bank
Plastics in Cars saves money and the environment Amount of Plastics used in sedans in China: Santana 50 kg, Audi 94kg, Cherokee Jeep 103kg Reducing the weight of a car by 100 kg saves about 3,5 liters fuel per 1000 km. Saving 150m liters fuel each year!
Competitive Environment Highly Fragmented Imports 33% Others MNC* 13% 20% 2002 2015 Others MNC* 1% 4% 12% 40% Local production 67% 10% Taiwan Sinopec / PetroChina Imports 24% Others Strong local companies MNC* 9% 15% 22% Others Korea 3% 3% 15% 15% Local production 76% 18% MNC* Taiwan Local fragmented companies Sinopec / PetroChina Source: BASF * MNC= Multinational Companies (e.g. Dow, DuPont, Bayer)
Additions of Local Cracker Capacities Cannot Catch up With Demand Growth Total Capacity [kt/a] Total Demand [kt/a] 2900 5100 2003 2010 5.500 16.000 15.500 28.500 Jilin 10000 North China Heilongjiang 6100 10000 Xinjiang Xizang Qinghai Inner Mongolia Ningxia Shanxi Hebei Tianjin Beijing Shandong Liaoning Gansu Henan Jiangsu 10000 Shaanxi Shanghai Anhui ChongqingHubei Sichuan Zhejiang Jiangxi Hunan Fujian Guizhou 0 1500 East China Source: BASF capacity [kt/a] 0 1800 450 West China Yunnan Guangxi Hainan Guangdong Hong Kong 0 2800 750 South China
Strong Shift of Chemical Demand Towards Asia Pacific Footwear Leather Textile Processing Appliances Packaging Furniture Automotive Manufact. Construction 80% 58% 58% 57% 45% 34% 35% 34% 74% 50% 53% 49% 37% 27% 31% 28% Source: PCI, Reed, FAO, DRI, Global Insight Asia Pacific 2002 Asia Pacific 2015
Consumers of Chemical Products* in 2001 United States 236 mill. Germany China 70 mill. 76 mill. Japan 110 mill. 10 million consumers 2001 = 1.1 billion consumers (17% world population) Source: World Bank, EIU, US Census Bureau * A potential consumer of chemical products is defined by an annual income of 10.000 USD in purchasing power parity
Consumers of Chemical Products* in 2015 United States 284 mill. Germany 76 mill. China 700 mill. Japan 112 mill. 10 million consumers 2015 = 2.0 billion consumers (29% world population) Source: World Bank, EIU, US Census Bureau * A potential consumer of chemical products is defined by an annual income of 10.000 USD in purchasing power parity
Imported Oil (including intermediates) 1995 Present (2005) 2015 0.4 million barrels/d 0.6% of world supply 3.4 million barrels/d - 2.5 crude - 0.9 refined 4.5% of world supply 6 million barrels/d 7% of world supply Source : James M. BROCK PE Independent Advisor to the Energy Industry in China