City of Cambridge Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Plan September 11, 2013 John Bolduc, Environmental Planner Project Manager, City of Cambridge Nathalie Beauvais, Int'l Assoc. AIA, AICP, LEED AP Project Manager, Kleinfelder This presentation or excerpts from the presentation cannot be used without the presenter s permission.
Agenda/ Items for Discussion Today s Agenda Why Is Cambridge Doing a Vulnerability Assessment? Concerns and awareness Methodology and Technical Approach to Complete the Vulnerability Assessment Stakeholder Engagement : Committee Roles and Public Contribution Design exploration: Climate Change potential impacts Closing statement / key findings 2
Project Approach Why Is Cambridge Doing a Vulnerability Assessment? 3
CLIMATE CHANGE PLANNING & ACTION IN CAMBRIDGE Joined ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability in 1999 Climate action plan approved by City Council in 2002 Formed Climate Protection Action Committee (CPAC) as standing advisory committee to City Manager in 2003 Focus on greenhouse gas emission mitigation; deliberately avoided adaptation CPAC recommended to City Manager in 2010 that the City conduct a climate change vulnerability assessment and begin planning for climate change 4
It s the Physics! Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide trap heat CO2 and other GHGs are long-lived and accumulate in the atmosphere GHG emissions are about double the capacity of the planet to absorb them It s a classic stocks and flows problem Stopping emissions at current levels does not stop climate change 5
Climate Change is Happening Rising average temperatures Rising sea level Shrinking Arctic ice cap Receding glaciers Migrating species Ocean acidification 6
Climate Change is Unavoidable IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, 2007 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level. National Academy of Sciences, 2010 Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems. 7
American Geophysical Union, 2013 Extensive, independent observations confirm the reality of global warming. These observations show large-scale increases in air and sea temperatures, sea level, and atmospheric water vapor; they document decreases in the extent of mountain glaciers, snow cover, permafrost, and Arctic sea ice. These changes are broadly consistent with long-understood physics and predictions of how the climate system is expected to respond to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases. The changes are inconsistent with explanations of climate change that rely on known natural influences. While important scientific uncertainties remain as to which particular impacts will be experienced where, no uncertainties are known that could make the impacts of climate change inconsequential. Furthermore, surprise outcomes, such as the unexpectedly rapid loss of Arctic summer sea ice, may entail even more dramatic changes than anticipated. National Climate Assessment (Draft), 2013 Global climate is changing now and this change is apparent across a wide range of observations. Much of the climate change of the past 50 years is due primarily to human activities. 8
Sea Level Rise Was Initial Motivation CLIMB (Climate s Longterm Impacts on Metro Boston) study, 2005 Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment, 2007 Moderate rise in sea level will make storm surge flooding more of a risk in Cambridge 9
CLIMB Storm Surge Images 2005 Charles River at Mass. Ave. Bridge Charles River at Longfellow Bridge 10
Storm Surge with 2 feet SLR & 100-Year Storm 11
If surge had hit at high tide Oct 29 th 12
Surge at high tide + 2.5 ft SLR 13
July 10, 2010 Storm 4 inches in 1 hour 14
CPAC Recommendation 2010 Climate Protection Action Committee (CPAC) is a standing advisory committee to the City Manager on climate change planning and action Following research and deliberation, CPAC developed a recommendation to the City Manager that the City conduct a vulnerability assessment and begin planning for climate change City Manager accepted the recommendation, directed City agencies to follow through, and budgeted City funds 15
Phase I: Vulnerability Assessment (2012-2014) Provide technical & scientific information for assessing risk & vulnerability Identify priority planning areas Establish stakeholder engagement processes Project Approach Climate Change Preparedness Project Phase II: Preparedness Planning (2014-2015) Identify measures to prepare for changes likely to occur from climate change Adopt implementation measures 16
Project Structure Interdepartmental steering committee (Public Works, Public Health, Community Development) Consultant team led by Kleinfelder Kleinfelder provides project management, engineering, hydrology, GIS, and analysis Subconsultants in climate science and modeling, public health, economic assessment, and community engagement Collaborating with MassDOT on coastal storm modeling using ADCIRC Expert Advisory Panel Technical Advisory Committee Community outreach & engagement 17
Climatic Parameters Primary Climate Change Effects of Concern to Cambridge Temperature Precipitation Sea level rise More extreme events 18
Items for discussion In 2014, post-sandy, can we proceed without having to discuss/convince if Climate Change is happening? Or This is unique to Cambridge? E.g. for architects, your clients are not convinced? 19
Project Approach Methodology and Technical Approach To Complete the Vulnerability Assessment 20
Climate Change Services Priorityplanning areas Step 1 Climate Projections Scenario Development Step 2 Vulnerability & Risk Assessment Step 3 Adaptation Planning and Design 21
Climate Change Projections Global Circulation Models (GCMs) Downscaling for local impacts Scenario Development Emission Scenarios Years of Analysis (2030 and 2070) Other socio-economic factors 22
Climate projections Figure 1. Future projections of climate change for Cambridge correspond to four scenarios: two higher scenarios (SRES A1fi and RCP 8.5), where human emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases continue to rise, and two lower scenarios (SRES B1 and RCP 4.5), where emissions peak and then begin to decline by mid-century. 23 Source: Katharine Hayhoe, ATMOS, September 2013
Climate projections Figure 7. Historical and projected future seasonal precipitation (in inches) for the 2030s and 2070s relative to 1971-2000. Light blue bars show projected changes under lower scenarios and dark blue bars, under higher. CMIP3 are the older generation of global climate models, and CMIP5 are the newer generation. The uncertainty bars, as indicated by the vertical lines above and below each bar, show the range of projections from all the different models in each group (4 models in CMIP3 and 9 models in CMIP5). 24 Source: Katharine Hayhoe, ATMOS, September 2013
Three-Step Ranking Process 1: Vulnerability Analysis Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity 2: Risk Assessment Probability of Occurrence Consequence of Event 3: Priority Planning Areas Most vulnerable and at-risk areas Informs focus for Adaptation Plan 25
Sensitivity Critical Elements Water Supply Reservoir Temperature Increase in yearly average temp by 2 degrees Example: ICLEI ranking of water system = degree to which built, natural or human system is directly or indirectly affected by changes in climate conditions (e.g., temperature) or specific impacts (e.g., sea level rise) more heat waves Projected Climate Changes for Scenario 1 (2030) Temp Ranking Precipitation S2 S3 Decrease in summer more frequent, intense rain events more icing in winter Precip Ranking Sea Level Rise SLR Ranking Overall Ranking S4 0.5 feet S0 6 S4 7 S1 1 26
Adaptive Capacity Critical Elements Temperature Example: ICLEI ranking of water system = ability of built, natural & human systems to accommodate changes in climate with minimal disruption or additional cost Projected Climate Changes for Scenario 1 (2030) Temp Ranking Precipitation Precip Ranking Sea Level Rise SLR Ranking Overall Ranking Water Supply Reservoir Increase in yearly average temp by 2 degrees AC1 Decrease in summer AC3 0.5 feet AC0 1 more heat waves AC3 more frequent, intense rain events more icing in winter AC3 6 AC1 1 27
High sensitivity plus low adaptive capacity results in high vulnerability 28
Linking GIS and Risk Hypothetical Area of Flooding in East Cambridge 29 Source: Kleinfelder, September 2013
Linking GIS and Risk V4 Hypothetical Vulnerability Ranking for Electric Substation 30 Source: Kleinfelder, September 2013
Identifying Vulnerabilities Vulnerability Score V4 Hypothetical Area Affected by Substation Failure 31 Source: Kleinfelder, September 2013
Existing Heat Wave Vulnerability By Census Block Group 32 Source: Kleinfelder, September 2013
Heat Impacts to Dallas 33 Source: Kleinfelder, September 2013
Existing Heat Island By Census Block Group 34 Source: Kleinfelder, September 2013
Existing Heat Wave Vulnerability By Census Block Group 35 Source: Kleinfelder, September 2013
Items for discussion Is the science of climate change relevant for architects? If relevant, what is critical: Sea Level Rise? Extreme events (precipitations, wind)? Temperature? 36
Project Approach Committee roles and contributions 37
Stakeholder Engagement Efforts Project Approach 1. Technical Advisory Committee 2. Expert Advisory Panel 3. Public Workshops 4. Community outreach & engagement 38
Project Approach Community Outreach & Engagement Direct outreach to community organizations including neighborhood associations, business organizations, and other groups Objectives: Make community aware of the project, reach beyond the usual suspects, collect early input for the assessment, generate interest for later project phases Min-presentations & survey Project webpage Listserv to receive updates & meeting announcements 39
Feedback from presentations & survey Is climate change (global warming) already affecting (or do you expect it will affect) Cambridge, your organization, and/or you personally? 17.4% Yes No 82.6% 40
Sea level rise Flooding Heat waves Extreme weather events Water quality Environmental justice Emergency response planning Urban heat island effect Energy supply Transit reliability Sustainable transportation What respondents want the City to account for What specific climate change effects, impacts, or factors would you like to see the City take into account in its planning? 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 41
Items for discussion Is it realistic to fold in already extensive design review process discussion on climate change? Note: Life is already too complicated for architects? 42
Project Approach Design exploration: Climate Change potential impacts 43
Note: Insurers are also expecting major shift in landuse strategies or hope that development in area most at risk will/could be precluded. 44
Proper elevation appears to have saved this home in Bay Head, New Jersey from Sandy s destruction. http://www.disastersafety.org/flood/sandy-recovery-resources/
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Using ring shank nails (shown above) will double the strength of a residential roof. http://www.disastersafety.org/topicbased/rebuilding-and-repairing-safer-andstronger-post-sandy/ http://www.greenmoisturebarrier.com/home 47
http://www.planning.org/planning/2013/mar/evergreen.htm 48
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FLOOD PROOFING INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS Industrial properties are particularly vulnerable to flood damage because they tend to be concentrated in coastal areas of the city. This vulnerability is heightened since many industrial businesses are located in 1- to 2-story structures and ordinarily store expensive equipment and inventory at ground level. This diagram illustrates how a building that has water tight doors and cover plates to create a water tight exterior in case of flood. The doors and covers can be deployed in anticipation of a severe storm. (Image: John Gravelin) 50
HARD INFRASTRUCTURE TO PREVENT FLOODING Many existing buildings located in flood zones have adjacent street grades with elevations below the Design Flood Elevation. Buildings often have exterior perimeter walls and egress doors at the property lines, presenting significant challenges to building owners that wish to voluntarily incorporate dry flood proofing (flood barriers and/or shields) around the building perimeter. Building Resiliency Task Group, p. 2 Barriers can be effective for re-directing flood waters around residential and industrial properties. (Image: Marcus Springer.) 51
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Sims Municipal recycling Facility, NYC, Selldorf Architects Lakeside Center, Brooklyn, NY by Tod Williams & Billie Tsien, Architects 55
Project Approach Closing statement / key findings 56
Project Approach Contacts: www.cambridgema.gov/climateprep jbolduc@cambridgema.gov nbeauvais@kleinfelder.com THANK YOU. 57