Renewables International - www.renewablesinternational.net Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of dynamic economies: South Korea, Iran, Thailand, Turkey Bernard CHABOT Sustainable Energy Expert and Trainer, Bernard_Chabot@yahoo.fr 1
Content Scope, main findings and conclusions: 3 References: 4 Back to basics: the Kaya identity and its ten indicators: 5-6 Population, primary energy and CO2 emissions 7-25 Comparisons of GDPppp, primary energy, CO2 emissions 26-35 Focus on electricity 36-43 Relative changes in energy, economy and carbon indicators 44-48 2
Scope, Main Findings and Conclusions This document presents a comparison of the parameters and indicators related to population, economy, energy and CO2 emissions of four selected countries that are within the 20 more CO2 emitting countries and are representative of historical and potential future tigers with growing economies: South Korea, Iran, Thailand, Turkey. Together they represent 268 million inhabitants (3.8 % of world population) and 2,114 MtCO2 or 6 % % of the 2014 CO2 emissions of 35.5 GtCO2 from fossil fuels combustion. Those CO2 emissions and their related ratios (CO2 per capita, carbon content of energy, carbon intensity of GDP) are either increasing too fast or are not sufficiently decreasing compared to the world average and many other developing and emerging countries. The 4 countries are very dependent from fossil fuels: 86 % in Korea, 98 % in Iran, 98 % in Thailand, and 90 % in Turkey. The only sensible historical renewables development was from large hydropower in Turkey with 7.3 % of primary energy supplies in 2014. Nuclear contribution is 13 % in South Korea and 0.4 % in Iran. South Korea is representative of the Asian tigers that developed strongly after WW2 like Japan, Taiwan, Hong-Kong and Singapore and that relied on fossil fuels and nuclear for their energy supplies. A challenge for future tigers is to avoid to base their development on fossil fuels by shifting directly to energy efficiency and modern renewables that are already less costly and of course more sustainable than post-fukushima nuclear energy. It will be important to analyse and to compare their 4 INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, to be published before the COP21 in December) and to assess if they will sufficiently contribute or not by their policies and measures to the expected Paris agreement to limit the global warming to less than 2 C in the century compared to the pre-industrial level. 3
References 2014 CO2 emissions and energy balances: BP Statistical Review 2015 (www.bp.com). 2012 CO2 and other detailed data: IEA (www.iea.org), «CO2 Emissions From Fuel Combustion - 2014». Refer to preceding analysis on CO2 downloadable as PDF from www.renewablesinternational.net: «Is it possible for developing countries to leapfrog to 100 % modern sustainable renewables? A serious proposal from Ethiopia», online August 19, 2015 Analysis of Total GHG Emissions of World, EU-28 and Selected Countries, With Reference to the Role of Sustainable Renewables, online August 12, 2015 Analysis of Primary Energy Consumption and of CO2 Emissions From Burning Coal, Oil and Gas in Main Emitting and Selected Areas and Countries, online July 27, 2015 «Analysis of the Global Electricity Production up to 2014 With a Focus on the Contribution From Renewables and on CO2 Emissions», online June 19, 2015 Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of Australia, Canada, Russia, Saudi Arabia, on line March2015. Analysis of ten population, energy, economy and CO2 emissions parameters and indicators of the twenty larger CO2 emitting countries in 2012, on line February 17, 2015. «Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of Japan, Germany, UK and France», on line January 7, 2015. «Comparing the main indicators for population, GDP, energy, CO2 and electricity of China, USA, European Union and India, on line December 17, 2014 Methodology and Case Study for Long Term Energy and CO2 Emissions Scenarios Based on the Kaya Identity, on line November 17, 2014, Analysis of Present CO2 Emissions, Primary Energy Consumption and GDPs of a Proposed Representative G30 Group of Countries, on line August 2, 2014. «Comparisons of CO2 emissions per capita on 1960 2010 with a focus on years 1990, 2000 and 2010, on line July 23 2014, Analysis of unsustainable inequalities of CO2 emissions from countries and per capita, on line July 16, 2014. The three Elephants in the Room : Coal, Oil and Gas in the Primary Energy Consumption (PEC) and their CO2 Emissions up to 2013, on line on July 9, 2014. 4
A precious tool for economic, energy and CO2 emissions analysis: the Kaya identity 5
CO2/capita The Kaya Identity: CO2 = (CO2/TPES) * (TPES/GDP) * (GDP/POP)*POP CO2 CO2 emissions ktco2/year POP Population Thousand TPES Total Prim. En. Supply Mtoe GDP Gross Dom. Product b$2005ppp Energy Intensity EI = TPES/GDP kgoe/$2005ppp Carbon Content CC = CO2/TPES tco2/toe Carbon Intensity CI = CO2/GDP kgco2/$2005ppp CO2 per capita CO2/POP tco2/capita GDP per capita GDP/POP $2005ppp/capita TPES per Capita TPES/POP toe/capita CO2 7 6 POP 1 2 TPES EI = Energy Intensity = TPES/GDP GDP 5 4 3 Bernard CHABOT - BCCONSULT 6
. South Korea, Iran, Thailand, Turkey: population, primary energy consumption and CO2 emissions from fossil fuels 7
Ranking of 2014 CO2 emissions for the 20 more emitting countries Source of data: BP Statistical Review, 2015 CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels (MtCO2/year) Total World on 2014 35 499 100,0% Of w hich: OECD 13 771 38,8% Non-OECD 21 728 61,2% European Union 3 705 10,4% 100,0% Rank Country MtCO2 % total Cum. % 1 China 9 761,1 27,5% 27,5% 2 US 5 994,6 16,9% 44,4% 3 India 2 088,0 5,9% 50,3% 4 Russia 1 657,2 4,7% 54,9% 5 Japan 1 343,1 3,8% 58,7% 6 Germany 798,6 2,2% 61,0% 7 South Korea 768,3 2,2% 63,1% 8 Saudi Arabia 665,0 1,9% 65,0% 9 Iran 650,4 1,8% 66,8% 10 Canada 620,5 1,7% 68,6% 11 Brazil 581,7 1,6% 70,2% 12 Indonesia 548,7 1,5% 71,8% 13 Mexico 499,9 1,4% 73,2% 14 United Kingdom 470,8 1,3% 74,5% 15 South Africa 452,2 1,3% 75,8% 16 Australia 374,9 1,1% 76,8% 17 Turkey 348,5 1,0% 77,8% 18 France 347,5 1,0% 78,8% 19 Italy 347,1 1,0% 79,8% 20 Thailand 346,9 1,0% 80,7% 8
With a total of 268 million people, the 4 countries represent 3.8 % of the 7.04 billion people in 2012. 9
South Korea: primary energy supply in 2014 Source of data: BP Statistical Review, 2015 10
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Iran: primary energy supplies in 2014 Source of data: BP Statistical Review, 2015 14
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Thailand: primary energy supplies in 2014 Source of data: BP Statistical Review, 2015 18
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Turkey: primary energy supplies in 2014 Source of data: BP Statistical Review, 2015 22
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South Korea, Iran, Thailand, Turkey: comparisons of GDPppp, energy and CO2 emissions parameters and indicators 26
Economic growth is very strong in the four countries. 27
Growth of GDPppp per capita is also strong in the 4 countries since 2000. 28
Growth of the total primary energy supplies (TPES) is also strong in the 4 countries. 29
Primary energy consumption per capita is lower than the world average in Thailand and Turkey but is increasing more than the world average in the 4 countries. 30
Primary energy intensity is worse than the world average in South Korea and Iran and is not decreasing since 1970 in the 4 countries as fast as in the world. 31
The four countries are within the 20 larger CO2 emissions countries, with fast annual increases. 32
CO2 emissions per people are increasing in the 4 countries and faster than the world average. 33
There is no sufficient decrease in the carbon content of primary energy in the 4 countries. 34
. Creating a $ of GDPppp requires less primary energy in Thailand and Turkey than in the world and more in South Korea and Iran. Except in South Korea, there is not a sufficient decrease since 1970 compared to the world average decrease 35
South Korea, Iran, Thailand, Turkey: Focus on electricity 36
As other countries with dynamic economies, there is an increase of electricity demand with a large difference within South Korea and the 3 other countries. 37
Electricity production per capita in Thailand is still lower than the world average, with a large difference within South Korea and the 3 other countries. 38
Creating a $2005ppp of GDP requires more electricity in South Korea than the world average, compared to less in the 3 other countries, but the ratio is increasing except recently in Thailand. 39
CO2 emissions for electricity production are increasing in the 4 countries. 40
CO2 emissions per capita from electricity production is increasing in the 4 countries, with a large difference within South Korea and the 3 other countries. 41
The carbon content of electricity is too high, including in South Korea that has developed nuclear energy and there is no or not sufficient decrease since 1990 42
Ex power carbon intensity of GDP is increasing in the 4 countries, with a large difference within South Korea and the 3 other countries. 43
Relative changes in energy and carbon parameters and indicators 44
. South Korea: changes of indicators Average yearly changes of strategic indicators (%/year) South Korea 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2012 Population 1,02% 0,84% 0,48% 0,54% GDPppp per people 6,80% 4,32% 4,00% 2,98% Energy Intensity (EI) 1,28% 0,19% -2,15% -0,26% Carbon Content (CC) 0,08% -1,25% -0,83% 0,13% CO2 from Fossil Fuels 9,36% 4,06% 1,40% 3,40% CO2 per people 8,26% 3,20% 0,91% 2,84% TPES 9,27% 5,38% 2,25% 3,27% TPES per people 8,17% 4,51% 1,76% 2,71% GDP M$2005ppp 7,89% 5,19% 4,49% 3,55% Carbon Intensity 1,36% -1,07% -2,96% -0,14% kwh electricity per capita 10,32% 8,85% 5,59% 4,02% Electricity production 11,44% 9,76% 6,10% 4,59% CO2 Content of electricity 1,26% -0,90% -1,64% 1,47% CO2 from electricity prod. 12,85% 8,77% 4,36% 6,13% Electricity Intensity of GDP 3,29% 4,34% 1,54% 1,01% CO2elec Intensity of GDP 4,60% 3,40% -0,13% 2,49% 45
. Iran: changes of indicators Average yearly changes of strategic indicators (%/year) Iran 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2012 Population 1,42% 1,74% 1,25% 1,23% GDPppp per people 1,95% 2,27% 4,28% 2,30% Energy Intensity (EI) 4,32% -0,06% 1,35% -0,06% Carbon Content (CC) -0,74% 0,62% -0,95% -0,11% CO2 from Fossil Fuels 7,06% 4,62% 6,00% 3,38% CO2 per people 5,57% 2,84% 4,68% 2,12% TPES 7,86% 3,98% 7,01% 3,49% TPES per people 6,35% 2,20% 5,69% 2,24% GDP M$2005ppp 3,40% 4,04% 5,59% 3,56% Carbon Intensity 3,55% 0,56% 0,38% -0,17% kwh electricity per capita 6,03% 5,55% 6,63% 3,94% Electricity production 7,53% 7,39% 7,97% 5,22% CO2 Content of electricity 0,09% -1,08% -1,16% 0,72% CO2 from electricity prod. 7,64% 6,23% 6,71% 5,98% Electricity Intensity of GDP 4,00% 3,21% 2,25% 1,61% CO2elec Intensity of GDP 4,10% 2,10% 1,06% 2,34% 46
. Thailand: changes of indicators Average yearly changes of strategic indicators (%/year) Thailand 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2012 Population 0,83% 1,11% 1,01% 0,27% GDPppp per people 7,72% -0,66% 4,05% 3,20% Energy Intensity (EI) -0,48% 2,68% 1,32% 0,10% Carbon Content (CC) 3,38% -1,11% -0,11% -0,69% CO2 from Fossil Fuels 11,76% 1,99% 6,38% 2,85% CO2 per people 10,83% 0,87% 5,31% 2,58% TPES 8,10% 3,14% 6,49% 3,57% TPES per people 7,21% 2,01% 5,43% 3,30% GDP M$2005ppp 8,62% 0,45% 5,10% 3,47% Carbon Intensity 2,89% 1,54% 1,21% -0,60% kwh electricity per capita 11,70% 2,55% 5,55% 3,09% Electricity production 12,63% 3,69% 6,61% 3,36% CO2 Content of electricity -0,68% -1,31% -1,14% -0,97% CO2 from electricity prod. 11,87% 2,33% 5,40% 2,35% Electricity Intensity of GDP 3,69% 3,22% 1,44% -0,11% CO2elec Intensity of GDP 2,99% 1,88% 0,28% -1,08% 47
. Turkey: changes of indicators Average yearly changes of strategic indicators (%/year) Turkey 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2012 Population 1,63% 1,46% 1,31% 1,27% GDPppp per people 1,56% 2,62% 3,20% 2,51% Energy Intensity (EI) -0,06% 0,16% -2,36% 0,94% Carbon Content (CC) 0,59% 1,27% -0,55% 0,10% CO2 from Fossil Fuels 3,76% 5,61% 1,53% 4,90% CO2 per people 2,10% 4,09% 0,22% 3,58% TPES 3,15% 4,29% 2,08% 4,80% TPES per people 1,50% 2,79% 0,77% 3,48% GDP M$2005ppp 3,21% 4,12% 4,55% 3,82% Carbon Intensity 0,54% 1,43% -2,89% 1,04% kwh electricity per capita 6,69% 6,14% 3,97% 4,42% Electricity production 8,43% 7,69% 5,33% 5,75% CO2 Content of electricity -2,05% 0,64% -3,69% 0,66% CO2 from electricity prod. 6,21% 8,38% 1,44% 6,45% Electricity Intensity of GDP 5,06% 3,43% 0,74% 1,86% CO2elec Intensity of GDP 2,90% 4,08% -2,97% 2,53% 48