Hydrological And Water Quality Modeling For Alternative Scenarios In A Semi-arid Catchment AZIZ ABOUABDILLAH, ANTONIO LO PORTO
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Outline Problem statement Study area Results & discussion Alternative scenarios conclusion
Introduction Problem statement Flow (m3/s) 25 20 15 10 5 0 01/01/19 METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 01/02/19 01/03/19 01/04/19 01/05/19 01/06/19 01/07/19 01/08/19 01/09/19 01/10/19 01/11/19 01/12/19 c Runoff less predictable Difficulty for the monitoring c Drought The Mediterranean basin has already been recognized as one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to climate change (IPCC, 2007).
Study area METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Tunisia Merguellil catchment
Study area: Soil & water conservation works (Reservoirs, Ponds, & contour ridges) Spatial repartition of water storage capacity (mm) of the contour ridges Contour ridges at the Hafouz region El Morra Dam El Maiz Pond
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 SWAT Model Water bodies SWAT Watershed System Pond or wetland Upland Processes Reservoir Pothole Channel/Flood Plain Processes
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 SWAT Model :Pothole as contour ridges Location of pothole and hydrologic response Unit in the landscape (Du et al., 2005) The runoff generated within these HRUs flows to the lowest portion of the pothole rather than contributing to flow in the main channel. If the area with the benches is bigger than the HRU considered as pothole, the water entering the pothole may be contributed from other HRUs in the subbasin.
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 SWAT Model : Model Input Digital Elevation Model DEM A Management practices E SWAT INPUT B Soil & Land use maps Reservoirs, Pond, Inlet & Outlet characteristics D C Weather data P, T, Sr, Ws, Rh
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 SWAT Result: Calibration & Validation Streamflow (m 3 s -1 ) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Calibration at Skhira station NSE= 0.6 R 2 = 0.7 Modeled Measured 5 Streamflow (m 3.s -1 ) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1/1/1992 2/1/1992 3/1/1992 4/1/1992 5/1/1992 6/1/1992 7/1/1992 8/1/1992 9/1/1992 10/1/19 11/1/19 12/1/19 1/1/1993 2/1/1993 3/1/1993 4/1/1993 5/1/1993 6/1/1993 7/1/1993 8/1/1993 9/1/1993 10/1/19 11/1/19 12/1/19 1/1/1994 Modeled 2/1/1994 3/1/1994 4/1/1994 5/1/1994 6/1/1994 7/1/1994 8/1/1994 9/1/1994 10/1/19 11/1/19 12/1/19 Measured Validation at Skhira station NSE= 0.6 R 2 = 0.7 0 1/1/1996 2/1/1996 3/1/1996 4/1/1996 5/1/1996 6/1/1996 7/1/1996 8/1/1996 9/1/1996 10/1/1996 11/1/1996 12/1/1996
Water balance METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 MON RAIN (MM) SURF Q (MM) LAT Q (MM) TWY (MM) ET (MM) PET (MM) 1 41.15 3.96 0.17 4.28 12.43 45.48 2 27.75 3.28 0.13 3.92 16.15 58.86 3 29.5 2.66 0.14 3.44 26.68 92.07 4% 4% 3% 7% 4 25.35 1.08 0.1 1.9 45.5 120.09 5 28.79 0.5 0.1 1.27 53.86 169.49 6 15.38 0.14 0.08 0.73 31.52 200.91 7 4.75 0.04 0.04 0.43 14.47 220.49 8 20.19 0.38 0.06 0.65 16.15 197.98 82% 9 49.28 0.7 0.13 0.98 22.31 134.78 10 33.47 0.97 0.13 1.28 18.62 96.13 11 27.54 0.74 0.09 1.06 12.7 57.07 12 26.33 1.85 0.1 2.22 11 43.08 Total 329.48 16.3 1.27 22.16 281.39 1436.43 Total Water Yield Evapotranspiration Percolation out of soil Total aquifer recharge Revap
Water quality simulation METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 (kg/ day) 1000 800 600 400 ORG_N (T/day) 800 600 400 SED 200 200 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (Kg/day) 150 100 50 ORG_P (Kg/day) 1000 800 600 400 200 MNP 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 5000 4000 N-NO3 3000 2000 1000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (Kg/day) Average monthly loads simulated at the outlet for the period (1990-2005)
Water quality simulation METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Measured virus simulated nutrients (Amoniac NH4 and minera phosphorus MNP at the Skhira (right) and kissra (left) stations.
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Scenario 1: 20% reduction of the fertilizer amount Estimated effects of reduction fertilizer application on the crop yield. CROP Yield (T/ha) Yield reduction Baseline Scenario 1 % Durum wheat 2.56 2.51 2.09 Olive 3.33 3.31 0.57 Almond 0.23 0.23 0.00
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Scenario 1: 20% reduction of the fertilizer amount Estimated effects of reduction fertilizer application on nutrient loads. N-NO3 (T/year) N total (T/year) P total (T/year) Baseline Scenario1 % reduction Baseline Scenario1 % reduction Baseline Scenario1 % reduction 1996 116 111 4 242 236 3 74 62 16 1997 183 176 4 361 352 3 85 74 13 1998 28 25 11 35 32 9 5 4 20 1999 167 157 6 364 353 3 109 94 14 2000 35 32 9 43 40 7 6.2 5.4 13 Mean 106 100 6 209 202 3 56 48 14
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Scenario 2:Impact of potholes on water balance and sediment loading Table: Impact of potholes on water balance and sediment loading Surface Q (mm) TWY (mm) Total AQR (mm) Volume (10 6 m 3 ) Sediment (T/ha) No pothole 23.93 27.94 10.19 26 96740 With Pothole 16.22 22.05 15.42 19 71430 Change (%) - 32-21 + 50-25 -26 Figure. Impact of potholes on total Surface runoff Figure. Impact of potholes on total water yield
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Scenario 2:Impact of potholes on water balance and sediment loading Impact of pothole on surface runoff reduction Impact of pothole on groundwater
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Scenario 2:Impact of potholes on water balance and sediment loading Impact of pothole on Sediment load Impact of potholes on sediment retention in the five reservoirs within the watershed
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Scenario 2: Crop yield change
Scenario 2: without pothole DWHT Yield (T/ha) 6 No Pothole Pothole 5 4 3 2 1 0 Yield (T/ha) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Olive 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 600 500 No Pothole Pothole 4 3.5 3 No Pothole Pothole ET (mm) 400 300 200 Yield (T/ha) 2.5 2 1.5 1 100 0.5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Scenario 3: Olive in potholes Yield (T/ha) 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Yield olive in potholes YLDth pothole _olive 4 13 28 38 58 63 77 85 101 109 122 130 148 151 160 170 189 197 213 230 248 251 262 275 286 292 Number of HRUs
Scenario 4: Climate change METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Canadian Global coupled model (CGCM3.1) version T63 Baseline 1961-2001 Future scenarios A2 A1B B1 Daily data 2010-2039 2070-2099 Statistical downscaling for different stations (Precipitation & temperature) linear and fourth degree non-linear regression were tested.
Scenario 4: Climate change Calibration (1990-2000) validation (1986-1989) METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Tmin ( c) Tmax ( c) Tmin ( c) Tmax ( c)
Scenario 4: Climate change METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 pcp 60 40 20 Calibration of PCP downscaled for September Observed (1990-2000) nlr Lr R 2 ln = 0.908 R 2 nl= 0.989 0 1 32 63 94 124 155 185 216 247 277 308 pcp 10 8 6 4 Validation of PCP downscaled for September 1986-1989 observed Lr nlr R 2 lr= 0.723 R 2 nlr = 0.975 2 0 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111
Scenario 4: Climate change METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Saisonnal change in temperature and precipitation for futue predicted scenarios.
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Scenario 4: Climate change Total water yield (mm/year) during the simulation period (1986-1990) (a) and the anomaly graphs for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios for periods 2014-2039 and 2074-2099.
Scenario 4: Climate change METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Figure 1. Mean monthly flow of the Merguellil River using simulated flows under current climate and downscaled GCM-generated stream flow. The hydrographs under predicted climate for 2054 2099 differed markedly from the current conditions. Monthly flows decreased considerably compared to current conditions and did not exceed 1 m 3 s -1. Except for scenario B1 and A2 where the discharge exceeds the current mean discharges respectively for the months of, September, November and November.
Scenario 4: Climate change METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Figure. One-, 3-, 7-, 30- and 90-day maxima flows for the Merguellil River, under current climate and downscaled GCM-predicted stream flows. using simulated flows There were significant changes in the magnitude of the 1-, 3-, 7-, 30- and 90-day maxima under predicted future climate compared to modeled current conditions. On average, the magnitude and duration of yearly floods under future climatic scenarios is expected to decrease comparing to current conditions The flow regime under predicted future climate scenarios will have an extended period of time with zero flow ( 247, 241, 242 days respectively for the scenario B1, A2, A1B) compared to current conditions (173 days).
Scenario 4: Climate change METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Coefficient of variation for mean monthly flow of the Merguellil River using simulated flows under current climate and downscaledgcm-generated streamflow. For the most part of the year, the predicted future coefficient of variation was greater than the current coefficient of variation. The exception was in March where the coefficient of variation was a little bit higher under current climate.
Conclusion METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 The SWAT model was rather successful in reproducing water flow. Soil and water conservation works (Potholes, Reservoirs, ponds) has changed the hydrological regime within the catchment. They have an important role of the retention of sediment and water harvesting. The use of these reservoirs remains modest. Further studies should investigate the water management in the reservoirs in order to increase the water use efficiency. A better use of the fertilizer, such as not over-applying it, could substantially reduce the amount of nutrients flowing down river without compromising crop yields This work has shown how a modeling tool can be used to study the response of hydrology and crop productivity to change in climate factors. The Merguellil watershed s water resources are highly vulnerable to change in rainfall and temperature, which affect the hydrologic regime of the catchment. This climate change analysis could be very useful in strategic planning of water resources management and crop production for the future years
METIER Final Conference: Brussels, Belgium-4-6 November 2009 Thank you for your attention