Water-related related Aspects of Adaptation to Variability and Climate Change Perspectives from South Asia Sanjay Pahuja SASSD
SAR: Two Different Climatic Sub-regions Arid/Semi-Arid Asia Tropical Asia
South Asia Region: Context 26% of world population Socioeconomic dependence on natural resources : water, cropland, forests, grassland, fisheries Natural resources already under stress, due to: poverty high population pressures poor institutions infrastructure constraints Resilience to climate risks is poor in most sectors
Water in South Asia Region Some of the world s s most water stressed countries Monsoonal, highly variable flows: hydraulic nations
Climate Change in South Asia Key Vulnerabilities IPCC Working Group II (on vulnerability and adaptation) Identification of vulnerable sectors : (based on degree of vulnerability and confidence level) (from IPCC/WG II : Climate Change 21 ) Agriculture Water Resources Coastal Ecosystems
Climate Change in South Asia Agriculture: Food security is the prime concern Thermal and water stresses => falling crop yields Rice yield decline more prominent than wheat Macro-economic impacts, due to tight global grain markets Deltas and Coastal Zones: Inundation by sea-level rise Loss and salinization of agricultural land Increasing frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones Loss of coastal ecosystems
Climate Change in South Asia Water Resources: Freshwater supplies are highly vulnerable Intensification of hydrological cycle: More frequent and more intense extreme events (floods and droughts) Increase 18 in geographical spread of vulnerable areas Change (%) in monthly water balance Precipitation Dramatic 16 for decrease Control and GHG in climate surface scenarios runoff in arid/semi-arid ET zones 14 Water Yield Changes in volume and temporal distribution of streamflows 12 Exacerbated 1 water quality due to higher water temperatures Overall 8 scarcity, particularly in countries where reservoir storage is low 6 4 Growing urban populations highly vulnerable to scarcity and 2 poor quality Severe water stress (during dry season) in countries where water -2 use is more than 2% of the total available resource Value (%) -4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Year Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (Gosain et al, 26)
Adaptation Strategies Macro Strategy: Rapid Development Increase income levels, education, technical skills, improve food supply, disaster preparedness and management Enhance human capital and reduce vulnerability Micro Strategy: Management of sensitive sectors Institutional development/reform to promote adaptation Modifications to climate-sensitive infrastructures and other long-term decisions Need to consider system vulnerability characteristics (coping ranges, thresholds, resilience): These are highly location-specific
Bank s s Engagement on Adaptation Adaptation as a cross-cutting cutting development issue: Growing adaptation-specific work in the region Adaptation as climate-risk management for our portfolio: Mainstreaming adaptation into vulnerable core sectors
Adaptation program in South Asia India ESW: Addressing Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Climate Change Through an Assessment of Adaptation issues and Options India - Andhra Pradesh Drought Study and Pilot Drought Adaptation Initiative Nepal ESW: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change (Inception stage)
Addressing Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Climate Change - Adaptation for India Objective: To enhance the consideration of climate and climate-related issues in India s development process Mahanadi basin in Orissa is projected to get hotter and wetter Annual RF Max Temp Min Temp A2 23% 3.8 4.2 B2 2% 2.4 2.9
Impact of climate change on Rice Yields A2 Scenario. 5 % d eclin e in y ield -2-4 -6-8 -1-12 -14 A2 B2 Rice Maize Gnut Sunf
Farm-level Behavior Modeling: Example from Ananthpur and Chittoor in Andhra Pradesh 6-25% income loss Farmers have already pre-adapted by growing 9 groundnut Survey Predicted 8 No further 7 diversification is possible. If irrigation water supplies fall by 5% 6 If irrigation water supplies fall by 5% 5 4 small farmers do not survive 3 2 Diminishing returns to water supply 1 Double water supply Rice Groundnut Rice Groundnut Ananthpur Chittoor Farming is largely unviable in these areas Crops Double water supply only 8% profit increase Need to promote diversification out of agriculture
Drought Adaptation Pilots in Andhra Pradesh (India) Community-driven approach to selection and design of adaptation measures Management of land and water is central groundwater management water productivity in agriculture rainfed livestock economic instruments strengthening capacity for dynamic adaptation. Implementation in two districts (as part of AP Rural Poverty Reduction Project)
Towards New Groundwater Strategies in India Groundwater is, and is going to be even more important, key resource provides buffering capacity against variability higher productivity than surface water What makes community groundwater management work?
Towards New Groundwater Strategies in India
PROJECT ACTIVITIES by farmers
Water levels monitored by farmers
Crop planning based on water balance Survey No Farmer Name 125/A 2 1 2 2 2 582/R 3 3 3 3 126/D.5.5 5.5 128/1E 1 1 1 1 1 1 126/8/E 3 1 3 1 3 126/E.5.5.5 129/P 2 2 2 2 2 2 126/Q 3 3 3 3 3 128/E 5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 185/N 5 7 5 5 586 1 1 2 1 2
What is happening in the Himalayas? the most critical region in which vanishing glaciers will negatively affect water supply in the next few decades (Barnett et al, Nature, 438-25)
Afghanistan Major need for water infrastructure development Multi-sectoral investments in Kabul River Basin addressing emergency needs for water supply, hydropower, irrigation S9 Salang R. S1A R1: Panjshir I (Gulbahar) R9: Barak Panjshir R. S1 C19 D23 C16 S8 R8: Totumdara Garband R. C2 D3 S1 R12: Haijan D7 D14 Kabul City U. Kabul/ Maidan R. A2 D3 C22 S3 D2 A3 C24 R1 Paghman R. S3a Barikow R. A4 D3a C23 C12 R1a Qargha R. A4a S11 C12a A1 C21 D11 C1 C9 Panjshir R. C8 R14: Maripur R11: Bagdara C7 Kabul R. S5 R2: Kajab Logar R. C1 D2 R3: Chak-e- Wardak C2 D4 R4: Tangi Wardak C3 R5: Karw an C4 C5 R7: Gat D5 R6: Surkhab C6 Butkhak R. R13: Amir Ghazi S12 E1 Charkh R. Surkhab R.
Pakistan Decade Decade Dialog on major reform and investments in Indus basin (Indus21 program)
India Plans for development of 15, MW hydro potential (3, MW over the next few years) Nathpa-Jhakri Power Project (approved 1989) Rampur (appraisal stage) and Vishnugad- Pipalkoti (preparation stage)
Nepal 83, MW of eco. feasible hydro potential, ~3 MW is developed Hydropower and tourism are key resources. Changes in dependability of flows, and in sediment loads. On Baghmati, more than 5% reduction in 9% dependable flows; 2% increase in sediment loads Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs( GLOFs)
Worsening flood situation (due to higher peak flows, rise in sea-level/ drainage congestion) Dhaka urban watershed: flood protection sewerage/drainage water quality groundwater Bangladesh
Summing-up: up: Adaptation Measures Improve water use efficiency and productivity of irrigated agriculture Conservation of freshwater supplies in arid areas Develop multi-purpose storage Support groundwater management Develop capacity for dynamic water resources management
Strengthening the Adaptation Agenda Climate change impacts are highly location- specific Only specific and high-resolution information is actionable Augment regional resources to support provision of the required information