WP2 VTT RESULTS OVERVIEW AND SUMMARY

WP2 VTT RESULTS OVERVIEW AND SUMMARY Researchers seminar 11.12.2017 Hannele Holttinen, Esa Pursiheimo, Jussi Ikäheimo, Juha Forsström, Juha Kiviluoma VTT

Research questions from the project plan Cost competitiveness of SNG, competitors, uncertainties? How PtG helps integration of wind/solar? How does energy system work, hourly basis, impact on stability?

CONTENTS - IMPROVING SIMULATION TOOLS - GLOBAL RENEWABLE FUTURE (TIMES) - MORE DETAIL FOR NORDIC COUNTRIES (BALMOREL/WILMAR) -ROBUST DECISION MAKING

WP2 model tool development TIMES-VTT add PtX processes, constrain fossils in 2050 Balmorel and WILMAR Added PtX processes, heat areas /detail, hourly resolution and water value model Add stability impact tool (post processing of WILMAR hourly dispatches) DHUC; CHP-integrated PtG at local level (integration with Wilmar via prices) New approach: Robust decision making

WILMAR Heat sector integration More district heating (DH) networks in WILMAR, for larger cities Previously Industrial and DH Coupling between heat and PtX Simulation of a single network in DHUC Ikäheimo J. 2017. Power-to-gas plants in a future Nordic District Heating System, Energy Procedia, 135, pp. 172-182; http://bit.ly/2zokrgg

Frequency response Reserve requireme nt FCR-D 1500 MW Plant scheduling and reserves allocation 1400 MW Dimensioning incident System set-up Unit commitment and economic dispatch (Wilmar JMM) generation MW 140 000 120 000 100 000 80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000 0 1 natural gas 2 coal 3 wood 4 water 5 sun 6 wind 7 nuclear Power system model (Simulink) Capacity expansion simulation Frequency rate of change Frequency nadir

Market price examples to other WPs: how much low prices in markets for PtX Cost optimal share and utilization of PtG at different cost levels of wind and solar Market price of electricity /MWh 250 200 150 100 50 0 VG1 VG2 VG3 Example. Too simplified hydro power impacts the prices

TIMES-VTT integration to a full year simulation with Balmorel/WILMAR TIMES-VTT Transport sector fuel production Sector electricity demand Number of electric vehicles Biomass potentials Ammonia production SNG demand Detailed simulation Capacities TIMES-VTT Balmorel Wilmar JMM Energy system model Pathway 2020 2050 Capacity expansion Power and heat For one future year More visibility of storages than TIMES Operational scheduling in multinational level Power and heat For one year 8760 hours More use of gas than Balmorel 3 weeks

PATH TOWARDS 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY - ANALYSIS ON SOLAR INTENSIVE GLOBAL ENERGY SYSTEM Esa Pursiheimo (VTT)

Getting the P2G use to the model Syngas produced by biogasification in Nordic countries LOBIO scenarios needed Syngas demand mainly in transport and industrial sectors 100% renewables /solar &wind based system to see P2G use

Path towards 100% RES analysis on solar intensive global energy system Expansion from Nordic to global Path towards 100 % renewable energy future and feasibility of power-to-gas technology in Nordic Countries, IET Renewable Power Generation Global manuscript in review process Scenario definitions RES Scenario targets global 100% renewable share of primary energy supply in year 2050 Non-renewable energy sources excluded from energy system in 2050 (use of existing nuclear capacity allowed) HI-ELC Share of electric vehicles set high in each model region Minimum share of electric vehicles from vehicle stock (all vehicle types) set to 80% in each region. LO-BIO Potential of forest biomass and field biomass constrained to significantly lower level Scenario is based on biomass utilisation levels of BASE scenario HI-ELC+LO-BIO = ALL Biomass potential reduction + high share of electric vehicles Combination of LO-BIO and HI-ELC Pursiheimo E., Holttinen H., Koljonen T., 2017. Path towards 100% renewable energy future and feasibility of power-to-gas technology in Nordic countries, IET Renewable Power Generation 11 (13), pp. 1695-1706. http://bit.ly/2blsduo

Solar power and P2X Solar and wind power capacities explode 2030-2050 Mostly centralised PV plants Large investments in P2X and electricity storages are required in solar intensive regions

Share of electricity and synthetic fuels increase Pursiheimo E., Holttinen H., Koljonen T., 2018 Global article submitted to Applied energy

Share of electricity and synthetic fuels increase

Conclusions Global renewable energy system by year 2050 is a feasible target Extensive electrification of energy system, especially due to production of synthetic fuels by electrolysis and power-to-gas Major changes in energy system required Renewable scenarios 11% higher in costs in 2050 Large volume utilisation of solar and wind power 48000 GW of solar equals 400km x 400km area (300 W/m2) 5000 GW of wind equals 1.67 million turbines (3 MW turbine) Effect of biomass potential is more significant than effect of electric cars Robust time slice structure of TIMES-VTT model poses issues concerning variable nature of renewable power generation, also issue of energy-topower ratio of electricity storages

POWER-TO-X IN THE FUTURE 100 % RENEWABLE NORTH EUROPEAN SYSTEM Jussi Ikäheimo, Juha Kiviluoma (VTT)

Balmorel capacity expansion model results, 3 example weeks P2G costs: 1000 /kw 350 Efficiency at 60 %, plus 25 % heat Gas value 43 /MWh or 62 /MWh, No O2 value SNG MH3 produced (TWh) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 24.8 28.3 31.8 35.4 38.9 Base 62 Base 43 Comp. 62 Comp. 43 /MWh for selling SNG Comp. - with competition from other flexibility sources Average PV/wind cost ( /MWh)

Cost reduction trends impact on building wind or solar dominated system Using Balmorel Case Nordic: wind will be used even at very low PV prices Kiviluoma, J. Azevedo, M. Rinne, E. Helistö, N. Cost optimal share of wind power, PV and batteries. 14th Wind Integraton Workshop WIW2015, 20-22 Oct 2015, Brussels. Share of wind power and PV 100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % 10 % 0 % 100 PV / Bat 50 Wind / Bat 50 PV / Bat 100 Wind / Bat 100 PV / Bat 150 Wind / Bat 150 PV / Bat 200 Wind / Bat 200 PV / Bat 300 Wind / Bat 300 80 60 40 Production cost of PV ( /MWh) 20

Results of first Nordic simulations Large scale implementation of P2G for energy arbitrage seems not to be realistic by 2030 in the Nordic system Even when shares of wind/pv higher than anticipated (<60 %) Cost competitive alternatives sources of flexibility P2G utilization (full load hours) not enough for cost efficient deployment in large scale PtG/ PtX is hardly used as seasonal storage BUT mainly as a sector bridging technology (transport sector needs fuels) Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J., 2016. Synthetic Natural Gas Production and Utilization in the North European Power System in 2050, Solar Integration Workshop, November 15-17, Vienna; http://bit.ly/2bmftno Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J., 2015. Operating P2G in a power system with large amounts of PV, wind power and hydro power, Solarzeitalter, 3/2015, http://bit.ly/2bvqk3t Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J., 2015. Operating P2G in a power system with large amounts of PV, wind power and hydro power, 9th International Renewable Energy Storage Conference (IRES 2015), Düsseldorf, http://bit.ly/2aiqcpo

Variation of investment costs 150 300 /kwh battery 500 1000 2000 2500 /kw PV Wind - onshore Wind - offshore

PtG results (Baltic Sea 2050) SNG production for energy sector Marginal cost of SNG Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J., Azevedo M., 2016. The role of P2G in a power system with large amounts of PV, wind power and hydro power, 10th International Renewable Energy Storage Conference (IRES 2016), Düsseldorf, March 15 17; http://bit.ly/2aihnw6 Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J., 2016. Synthetic Natural Gas Production and Utilization in the North European Power System in 2050, Solar Integration Workshop, November 15-17, Vienna; http://bit.ly/2bmftno

PtA results PtA production Marginal cost Synthetic NH 3 cost in 2050 remains on comparable level compared to recent market prices Germany exploits NH 3 as peak power fuel

Conclusions Power to gas seems to depend on the transport sector fuel needs expensive flexibility alternative for the power sector in the Nordic countries which have abundant reservoir hydro and potential flexibility in the district heating. Baltic Sea region: especially Germany as consumer of SNG Power to ammonia is a feasible concept at ammonia prices which are somewhat higher than recent prices Product is sent to fertilizer industry High cost of ammonia-fired plants prevented the use of ammonia as energy storage only when SNG was not available Biomass-CHP and SNG/ammonia condensing plants are both used to cover peak residual load; biomass availability is a constraint application of high-temperature electrolysis with heat integration may increase PtA efficiency considerably Production of large amounts of synthetic drop-in liquid fuels for transport sector is possible but inefficient and the cost of fuel is quite high Possibility for capital cost reduction (Capex 0 = 2290 /kw fuel )? Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J., manuscripts for 2 journal articles;

Frequency response in high renewable systems Jussi Ikäheimo, Juha Kiviluoma Ikäheimo J., Kiviluoma J. On Frequency Stability in the Future Renewable Nordic Power System with Gas Sector Integration, Solar Integration Workshop, October 24 25, 2017, Berlin http://bit.ly/2ajd1su Increased reserve allocation 1300 1500 MW Considerable drop in system kinetic energy minimum. Single fault (1400 MW) leads to violation of the lowest frequency bound (49.0Hz) 7 hours of the year Wind and solar power play only a small role in FCR-D more from electrolysis When synthetic wind inertia was included, no violation of the allowed frequency bound took place

Robust Decision Making, RDM Juha Forsström. Forsström, J. Björnberg, A. VTT reports Interesting new approach developed to tackle numerous uncertainties (demand, technology, price of electricity, price and availability of (bio)fuels) Case study Fortum District heating in Espoo, supporting choosing among various options in district heat production in Espoo Result Non-boiler options favored if feasible if not, heat-only boilers seem more competitive than CHP

Research questions from the project plan Cost competitiveness of SNG, competitors, uncertainties? How PtG helps integration of wind/solar? How does energy system work, hourly basis, impact on stability? Very high wind/pv scenarios needed for PtX usage. More seen as energy sector bridge than seasonal storage. Wind/PV and electrolysers add to freq stability.

Caveats in simulating close to 100% renewable systems Simulations show that hourly electricity and heat balances work 5..15 min time resolution will show differences in dispatch. Wind/solar short term forecast errors taken into account in some case studies (WILMAR simulations) Frequency stability of hydro dominated system checked with increased reserve allocation in a copperplate model small signal stability can remain an issue. Modelling framework uncertainties remain Capturing all operational constraints and flexibilities. Investment model considers e.g. reserves in a simplified manner. Operation of >80% wind/solar hours not know yet Frequency and voltage stability: ongoing research. Wind and PV, as well as electrolyzers, are faster to control than steam turbines.

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