Perspectives of the LNG spot Trade and Transport Market in East Asia in 2010~2015 Dr. Boyoung KIM Team Manager, Center for Gas Economics & Management Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS), Republic of Korea 1. Introduction The purpose of this paper is to research the LNG and pipeline gas in East Asia in 2010~2015 and then find the suggestions about LNG spot trade and Transport Market. For one example, did such a demand supply unbalance accident (surplus supply according to the demand insufficiency) happen in Taiwan seriously in 2001. Because the construction of IPPs was delayed and then expected gas demand was reduced. Therefore CPC agreed to swaps LNG cargoes with KOGAS and Chubu Electric power Co. Ins in 2001. By the way other companies in East Asia will be not exception in the future. Although it seems not to be serious in outward form, it will be also possible to happen in any countries as Taiwan. Without changing the current conditions of LNG Contract, it might be general still 2010 or 2015 In case of Korea, is it also very serious for TOP (take or pay) problem and will be also more deepened unless solving the problem of demand gap between summer and winter. But because there is a limitation to regulate the supplying pattern because of LNG Contract conditions, it is too hard to keep away such attacks (?) of LNG supply. On the contrary, Japan is relatively free from the problem of TOP(Take or Pay) or demand-supply unbalance. But Japan will also need help of other companies in East Asia countries before long. Because Triangle-Zone (Korea, China and Japan) Trade through Market system is more efficient and profitable than solving the problems within its own facilities, which are LNG ships or storage tanks. Under these circumstances, recently did China make a long term Contract of Guangdong project with NWS on August, 2002. This project has a plan starting to supply 3.3mtpa LNG to Guangdong Terminal from Australia in 2005/06. (China also imports 2.6mtpa to Fujian Terminal from Indonesia Tangguh project in 2006/07). LNG Trade among importing companies will also effect on cutting down the expenses of LNG spot cargo or storage tank construction costs. These changes and needs of each company will make a chance to establish the LNG spot trade and Transport Market in East Asia in days to come. Although it is barely made up of the name of swap between two companies nowadays, it will be extended eventually as an active Market activity among many companies. Furthermore might it also effect on opening the Market of LNG Storage tanks in East Asia. And it also has the power of influence to downstream domestic market. Therefore it will enlarge the Natural gas Market size itself eventually. According to the forecasting data, although the volume of the LNG demand was about 98.9bcm in 2000, it will increase from 120.2~140.2bcm in 2010 to 137.5~167.2bcm in 2015. Meanwhile the ratio
of LNG spot trade was about 8% in 2001, and FACTs expects that it will increased to 15-20% in 2010. Therefore if 15~20% of LNG were traded in spot market, it would be about 19.4~25.9bcm. This corresponds to the volume of 240~310 LNG (145,000m 2 ) vessels. By the way, Irkutzk or Sakhalin I might take concrete shape in 2010~2015. And these pipeline projects will effect on the LNG contract and market. As China takes part in LNG Trade, we can expect such an LNG trade market to be brought up rapidly in East Asia. And LNG vessels from Middle East Asia, Southeast Asia and Australia should get through Triangle-Zone, if they should arrive in Korea, Japan and China. This is one of the most important Market Conditions to East Asia countries. Therefore if we established the LNG spot Trade and Transport Market in East Asia, it would be very useful to East Asia companies. Because these trades will give a benefit to all together. So far, did swapping happen one to one, for example between CPC and Kogas, CPC and Chubu Electric Power Co Inc., Kogas and Osaka Gas etc. But if we set up the LNG spot Trade and Transport Market in East Asia in the future, it would be achieved not only between one and one but also among more than triple. And eventually will it stir up The Revolution of Transportation in LNG Market. Such a flexible market can solve the problem of rigidity in LNG supply and Transportation internalizing such a problem among LNG importers. These changes will have an effect on LNG contract conditions. 2. LNG outlook in East Asia 1) Korea Korea gas Industry grows up very rapidly till 2002. The average annual growth rate of gas consumption is more than 15% from 1986 to 2002. Korea consumed 18.2bcm of natural gas in 2000. And we expect that natural gas demand will be increased to 32.4~39.7bcm in 2015. Table 1 : Gas demand Forecast in Korea (unit : bcm) 2000 low base high low base high low base high 18.2 24.4 24.9 25.5 25.5 27.0 29.0 32.4 35.1 39.7 Source : Kogas On the contrary, the ratio of existing LNG contract in total consumption will be decreasing gradually. Because ArunIII project(2.3mtpa) will expire in 2007, BLNG project (0.7mtpa) in 2013, KoreaII project (2.0mtpa) in 2014, MLNGII (2.0mtpa) in 2015, BadakV (1.0mtpa) in 2017, Ras Gas (4.92mtpa) and OLNG project (4.06mtpa) in 2024. And [Figure 1] shows that the gap between forecasted demand and LNG supply is the volume to contract projects newly in Korea. The amount of new LNG projects will surpass that of existing ones after 2015.
Table 2 : Importing LNG Project of Korea (unit : mtpa) Nation Project name Quantity expiry year Distance(km) ArunIII 230 2007 5,700 Indonesia KoreaII 200 2014 5,100 BadakV 100 2017 4,500 Malaysia MLNGII 200 2015 4,140 Qatar Ras Gas 492 2024 11,400 Oman OLNG 406 2024 10,400 Brunei BLNG 70 2013 4,400 Source : Kogas Figure 1 : Forecasted demand and LNG supply in Korea 2) Taiwan Taiwan gas industry is very small size comparing with Korea or Japan. The quantity of gas consumption was about 6.4bcm in 2000. It is 35% of Korea gas consumption and 9% of Japanese. Table 3 : Gas demand Forecast in Taiwan (unit : bcm) 2000 low base high low base high low base high 6.4 7.3 9.6 10.2 12.1 13.2 16.4 15.4 16.8 18.6 Source : FACTs But LNG demand of Taiwan also increases more and more and it will reach about 15.4~18.6bcm in 2015. Taiwan imports LNG from 3 projects. They are Badak III(1.5mtpa), Badak IV(1.84mtpa), MLNG II(2.25mtpa) project. And BadakIII will expire in 2010, MLNG II in 2015, Badak IV in 2017. All of them are composed of the Ex-ship contract. And all of existing LNG contracts will expire before 2017. And [Figure 2] shows that the gap between forecasted demand and LNG supply is the volume to
contract projects newly in Taiwan. The amount of new LNG projects will surpass that of existing ones after 2010. Table 4 : Importing LNG Project of Taiwan (unit : mtpa) Nation Project name Quantity Expiry year Note Indonesia BadakIII 150 2010 BadakIV 184 2017 Malaysia MLNGII 225 2015 Ex-ship Source : LNG Express Figure 2 : Forecasted demand and LNG supply in Taiwan 3) Japan Japan occupies more than 70% share in LNG Market. It consumed 74.3bcm of natural gas in 2000. And Japanese gas consumption will be increased to 77.4~90.8bcm in 2015. Although the average annual growth rate of gas consumption is very low, Japan will be the biggest buyer of LNG in 2015. Table 5 : Gas demand Forecast in Japan (unit : bcm) 2000 low base high low base high low base high 74.3 70.0 73.0 73.7 76.1 79.9 85.2 77.4 86.3 90.8 Source : FACTs. As you see the <Table 6>, USA Kenal project (1.24mtpa) will expire in 2004, NWS project (7.33mtpa) in 2009, ArunII project (0.96mtpa) in 2010, Badak II project (3.62mtpa) in 2011, Brunei LNG project (6.01mtpa), BadakIII project(2.3mtpa), Malaysia II project(2.1mtpa), in 2013, BadakV project (0.4mtpa) in 2015 etc. Total amount of LNG project to expire before 2015 is about 23.96mtpa that is 43% of existing LNG contract volumes (55.28bcm). And [Figure 3] shows that the gap between forecasted demand and LNG supply is the volume to contract projects newly in Japan. We expect that The amount of new LNG projects also will surpass that of existing ones after 2015. We can see that the amount of existing LNG contracts in Japan will
expire very much between 2010 and 2015. Table 6 : Importing LNG Project of Japan (unit : mtpa) Project name 2001 ADGAS 4.30 4.30 4.30 4.30 ALNG/NWS 7.33 10.10 3.90 3.90 Bayu-Undan - - 3.00 3.00 Brunei LNG 6.01 6.01 6.01 - Pertamina 18.70 16.20 15.20 1.50 MLNG(I,II,III) 11.00 13.10 13.10 12.60 Oman LNG 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.70 Qatar Gas 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 USA Kenal 1.24 1.24 - - Source : FACTs Figure 3 : Forecasted demand and LNG supply in Japan 4) China China will be supplied LNG from oversea in 2005/06. But it is supplying its own gas to domestic area through pipeline. This situation is different from Korea, Japan and Taiwan that are consuming only LNG. And China will consume 9.2bcm of LNG (base case) in 2010 and 17.2bcm of LNG (base case) in 2015. Table 7 : Gas (only LNG) demand Forecast in China (unit : bcm) 2000 low base high low base high low base high - 3.8 4.2 4.8 6.5 9.2 9.6 12.3 17.2 17.9 Source : PetroChina, FACTs Because China starts importing LNG from 2005, there is still no project to expire before 2025. But it
needs to contract another new project for over-demand after 2006. And [Figure 4] shows that China also consumes very large volume of LNG after 2010. Therefore it will be the strongest competitor in East Asia to procure the LNG spot cargoes in the future. Table 8 : Importing LNG Project of China (unit : mtpa) Nation Project name Australia NWS 330 330 330 Indonesia Tangguh - 260 260 Source : FACTs Figure 4 : Forecasted demand and LNG supply in China 3. Recent tendency of LNG contract 1) Buyers directly take part in the sharing of investment in LNG Project In case of Korea, Korea consortium held a 5% share in OLNG and Ras Gas Project. It is importing LNG of 4.06mtpa and 4.92mtpa from OLNG and Ras Gas since 2000. In case of Spain, Union Fenosa held a 8% share in Oman the 3rd train Project investment in 2000. And It also has a plan to import half of LNG produced. In case of China, CNOOC will hold a about 5-6% share in Australia NWS Project, CNOOC advances into Australia s upstream. China will import LNG of 3.3mtpa from Australia in 2005/06. In case of Japan, so far did the general trading companies (as an agent) contract LNG project with suppliers, therefore city gas company (Tokyo Gas) or power generation company (TEPCO), real buyers, had not taken part in sharing investment in LNG Project directly. But Tokyo Gas and TEPCO held a 10.1% share in Bayu-Undan project directly. 2) Change of the traditional trading practice (1) One seller vs. buyers This is one of swap case occurred in East Asia during last two years. And it is still going on. Korea, Taiwan and Japan commonly import LNG from Southeast countries. Therefore in the winter season,
they can swap LNG cargoes (from Indonesia or Malaysia)with each other or through triple trade. Taiwan had a big problem of demand-supply unbalance in 2001. Because the expected demand of gas for power generation did not increase. And Korea always meets face to face with seasonality problem in the midst of winter. (2) Sellers vs. one buyer Indonesia has some technical problem in supply pipeline infrastructure. It was hard to supply LNG to Korea or Japan as schedule. Then southeast supplying countries - Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei - made a conclusion of a treaty of alliance to supply LNG without any break down. (3) Sellers vs. buyers Sellers are MLNG and OLNG, buyers are Kogas and European companies. MLNG supplied LNG (which was going to supply from OLNG to Kogas by Korea National LNG vessel) through OLNG to Europe company. On the contrary Kogas imported LNG (which was going to import from OLNG) through MLNG. They all got the gains through shortening the transportation term. 3) Destination Clause and Open ended contract TEPCO and Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd contracted Bayu-Undan Project in March, 2002. At that time they put in new contract clause that was the revised destination clause. when they want to re-sell Bayu- Undan project LNG to any other companies within Japan, they need not to confer beforehand. But in case of re-selling it to other countries, they have to confer beforehand and share in the profit with LNG seller. This means that existing rigid Destination clause will be changed toward more flexibly. And an example of open ended contract is that between the Trinidad expansion project and Spanish buyers, in which the destination of 20% of the volume will be determined by price and logistics.. 4) Activation of LNG spot Trades Historically, new projects were planned to balance LNG contract demand with LNG carrier supply. However, a situation of excess product supply came about in the late 1980s. Liquefaction facilities were operating at greater capacity and reliability than estimated and an economic downturn caused Japan to reduce its imports. Both eventualities released excess product onto the market. (Refer to [LNG Trade and Transport 2002, Clarkson Research Studies]) And the cost to build one LNG vessel fell from a peak of $280m in early 1992 to $150m in the second half of 1999, an absolute decline of 40%. This will make LNG spot trade easy through market. Decreasing of LNG ship building cost let LNG spot trades actively. Recently do LNG vessels unrelated Long-term contracts to be ordered to build. The share of spot cargoes was about 8% of total LNG trade in 2001, but FACTs expect it will be about 15~20% of that in 2010. According to the <Table 9>, total trade of LNG is about 129.3bcm (base) in 2010. Therefore if 15~20% of LNG were traded in spot market, it would be about 19.4~25.9bcm. This corresponds to the volume of 240~310 LNG (145,000m 2 ) vessels. Table 9 : LNG demand Forecast in East Asia
(unit : bcm) 2000 low base high low base high low base high Korea 18.2 24.4 24.9 25.5 25.5 27.0 29.0 32.4 35.1 39.7 Taiwan 6.4 7.3 9.6 10.2 12.1 13.2 16.4 15.4 16.8 18.6 Japan 74.3 70.0 73.0 73.7 76.1 79.9 85.2 77.4 86.3 90.8 China - 3.8 4.2 4.8 6.5 9.2 9.6 12.3 17.2 17.9 Total 98.9 105.5 111.7 114.2 120.2 129.3 140.2 137.5 155.4 167.2 Source : Kogas, FACTs, PetroChina In case of 2002/03 winter season, there were so many complex factors to occur the LNG spot War (?). They were unexpected cold weather, defect of TEPCO s nuclear generators, and energy price competition between LNG and heavy oil etc. It needed more and more spare LNG spot cargoes in North-East Asia at that time. Anyway, since then LNG carrier fleet has grown to 131 vessels(as at 1 st September 2002). It grew very rapidly up to the early 80 s with the orderbook reaching 49 vessels in 1975. However current optimism about the future of LNG shipping is reflected in the fact that the largest ordering for new ships has taken place over the last three years; 19 vessels in 1999, 24 in 2001 and 20 up to September during 2002. The present outlook is for the fleet to grow by over 40% by end 2004. Ultimately Increasing demand of LNG spot will effect the order of building LNG vessels which are not related with Long-term contract. 4. North-East Asia Gas Network: North-pipeline gas, South-LNG 1) Perspectives of LNG spot Trade Market in Triangle Zone(Korea-Japan-China) There are many common specifications among LNG importing countries - Korea, Japan and China. One of them is that they have the similar LNG transportation line. Most of all LNG ships have to pass through the triangle-zone in order to access to their LNG terminals. This is a very important and beneficial factor to establish a LNG spot Trade market in North-East Asia. Although it does not look as being related with LNG spot Trading now, it will be a good trading condition. If other conditions were satisfied before LNG spot trading, it would be possible and easy to turn LNG ship from Japan to Korea or China as passing through the Triangle-Zone. 2) Pipeline Gas (Irkutzk and Sakhalin I Project etc.) There may be one of two Russia pipelines in 2010 or 2015. And there will be also huge pipeline network in China. They will be composing half of North-east Asia pipeline gas network. Another half of that means the LNG trading network. Profile of Irkutzk project is like these. Reserve is about 1,400bcm. The length of pipeline (distance) is about 4,100km. Gas demand countries are Korea(10bcm) and
China(20bcm). On the contrary, in case of Sakhalin project, Reserves is about 450bcm. The length of pipeline (distance) is about 3,000km. Gas demand countries are S. Korea(8.5bcm), N. Korea(1.5bcm) and Russia(14.6bcm). And quantity of Chinese domestic gas supply through pipeline will be about 74.7bcm in 2010. Therefore if one of upper 2 international pipeline projects would be developed successfully, quantity of pipeline gas trade will be about 10~30bcm and total quantity of that will be about 84.7~104.7bcm in North-east Asia in 2010. 3) Inter-connectors in North east Asia If North-East Asia gas Network were completed, Inter-connectors which are those of between Korea-Japan and Korea-China would be also constructed. Although it is hart to construct the Korea- Japan Inter-connector for many reasons, sometime will it be connected under the North-east Asia gas network. 4) Korea as the Hub terminal of North-East Asia Gas Network Pipeline gas will be supplied from north and LNG will be supplied from south. And they compose the East Asia Gas Network. And Korea exists in the center of that network. Therefore Korea may play a role of Hub Terminal geologically. The gas demand of North-east Asia (Korea, Japan and China) will be about 213.7bcm in 2010. Demand of LNG will be about 106.1bcm, and that of pipeline gas will be about 107.6bcm in 2010. They will take part with almost similar market share in North east Asia in 2010. Table 10 : Gas (LNG & Pipeline gas) demand Forecast in North-east Asia (unit : bcm) Korea 24.9 27.0 35.1 Japan 73.0 79.9 86.3 China 63.7 106.8 153.4 Total 161.6 213.7 273.0 5. Gas Market in East Asia 1) Competition Market between LNG and LNG Asia, North America and EU Gas Market were divided respectively. The price gap among them shows such a market situation. That means that price did not operate as a signal between supply and demand. But there are occurring some changes in each market since the letter half of the 90 s. Each market price of gas came close in 2001. (Shows <Table 11>) Table 11 : Gas price Index in Asia, North America and EU
(unit : $/MMBtu) 1990 1997 2001 Japan(cif) 3.64 3.91 4.64 U.S.A(Henry Hub) 1.64 2.53 4.07 EU(cif) 2.82 2.65 4.19 Source : BP Statistical review of world energy June 2002 And at one time, did Henry Hub gas price surpass the Asia LNG cif price in 2002 winter. This shows the start of competition among Asia, North America and EU gas market. Henceforth should they do not only inner-area competition but inter-area one. Inter-area competition will be more important to Asian countries in the future. Because America and EU gas market have more powerful sucking force toward Asia gas Market. <Table 12> shows the distance between gas producing field and LNG terminal in Asia-Pacific. According to the data, LNG transportation cost will be almost indifferent between Korea/Japan Oman/Qatar and Indonesia West Coast of U.S.A or Malaysia West Coast of U.S.A. And LNG transportation cost of Sakhalin West Coast of U.S.A will be more profitable than that of Korea/Japan Oman/Qatar. Table 12 : Distance between gas producing field and LNG terminal in Asia-Pacific (unit : miles) Korea/Japan Oman/Qatar 6,800 Australia West Coast of U.S.A 8,100 Korea/Japan Indonesia 3,200 Indonesia West Coast of U.S.A 6,600 Korea/Japan Malaysia 2,600 Malaysia West Coast of U.S.A 7,300 Korea/Japan Sakhalin 1,900 Sakhalin West Coast of U.S.A 4,500 Therefore if LNG terminals were constructed in west coast of U.S.A, such a competition will appears actually. Asia and North America gas market will be fastened together by one. There is almost no difference of transportation cost between importing LNG from Oman/Qatar to Korea/Japan and from Indonesia/Malaysia to west coast of U.S.A. 2) Competition Market between LNG and Pipeline Gas Next is competition between LNG and pipeline gas. As you see the <Table 13>, it is not serious in China by 2015. But in case of Korea, if one of Irkutzk and Sakhalin project or two all were succeeded to introduce toward Korea, the market share of pipeline gas in total demand would reach about minimum 28%~maximum 57% in 2015. At that time, market share between LNG and pipeline gas in North-east Asia (Korea, Japan and China) will be almost similar. And when North-east Asia gas network is completed, it will start competition between LNG and pipeline gas regularly. 6. Conclusion
I expect that the LNG spot Trade and Transport Market will get born in East Asia in 2010 or 2015. But if other conditions were filled previously, it might be open advanced before 2010 or 2015. Therefore I think that it is desirable to consider such a LNG contract condition with these viewpoints when we should make new LNG project contracts or extend existing contracts. Market share of LNG Spot trade was only 8% in 2001. But according to forecasted data, total volume of LNG Trade will be about 129.3bcm (base) in North east Asia in 2010. And the volume of LNG Spot Trade will be about 19.4~25.9bcm that is 15~20% of total LNG trade and this corresponds to the volume of 240~310 LNG (45,000m 2 ) vessels. It will increase more rapidly than that of 90 s Such a dynamic movement in LNG spot Market will have an important effect upon LNG long-term Contract. LNG long-term Contract has been reflected in recent new contract clauses as contract terms, resale options, destination clause, open ended contract etc which are already revealed. But there may be something that we did not think yet. Therefore we should prepare and watch the future LNG Market changes more carefully. REFERENCES 1. CLARKSON Research Studies, A comprehensive overview of the ships, trades and markets for LNG. LNG TRADE & TRANSPORT 2002. September, 2002. 2. FACTs Inc. PACIFIC GAS INSIDERS 2002. December, 2002. 3. FACTs Inc. A Strategic Briefing on the LNG and Natural Gas Markets & Pipeline Developments in Asia-Pacific Region. In-House Training. June, 2002. 4. GAS TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE. WORLD LNG SOURCE BOOK 2001. 5. G.I.I.G.N.L. Consequences of the Opening of Gas Markets on Long Term LNG Purchase Contracts. Working Group Final Report. General Assembly Meeting, 2000 6. IEA. NATURAL GAS INFORMATION 2002. 7. M. J. Madden & N. F. White. A review of the New Gas Trading Arrangements. NETWORK 2000. Financial Times Energy. 8. TEXTREPORT. THE GAS YEARBOOK IN JAPAN (2001). June, 2002.