Michigan s Dairy Industry Ken Nobis, MMPA President
ONE CENTURY STRONG 1,200 DAIRY FARMS 5 Billion LBS. OF MILK Quality Integrity Leadership Progressive Community
MMPA Locations Products made at Ovid & Constantine Plants: Butter, Cream, Condensed Milk, Dry Milk Powders, and Specialty Blends. Middlebury Plant: Colby, Monterey-jack and Cheddar type cheeses.
Milk Production and Market Outlook
Top Ten Dairy States 1. California 40.8 billion lbs -3.4% 2. Wisconsin 29.0 +4.4 3. Idaho 14.2 +1.7 4. New York 14.1 +2.7 5. Pennsylvania 10.8 +1.3 6. Texas 10.3-0.1 7. Michigan 10.2 +6.7 8. Minnesota 9.4 +3.7 9. New Mexico 7.8-3.4 10. Washington 6.6 +0.5
Thousand 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Number of Dairy Cows & Total Annual Production Michigan 2000-2015 Milk production in Michigan has increased 80% since 2000 while cow numbers have increased 36% during this time. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Dairy Cows Annual Milk Production Million pounds 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000
Milk Production Per Cow- Top 10 States - 2015 State Milk Produced Per Cow 1. Colorado 25,685 pounds 2. Michigan 25,130 pounds 3. Arizona 24,477 pounds 4. New Mexico 24,245 pounds 5. Idaho 24,126 pounds 6. Washington 23,848 pounds 7. Utah 23,146 pounds 8. Nevada 23,069 pounds 9. California 23,002 pounds 10. Iowa 22,943 pounds
The Michigan Advantage Agricultural Land Climate Water Infrastructure Access to Population Centers
The Michigan Advantage Advances in genetics, nutrition, herd management, and technology innovation have led to greater efficiency in the dairy industry.
U.S. MILK PRODUCTION (adjusted for leap year) 19.00 18.50 18.00 December = +2.2% Calendar YTD = +1.6% 17.50 Billion Lbs. 17.00 16.50 16.00 15.50 15.00 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2013 2014 2015 2016
U.S. Production: A Tale of Two Milksheds 2015 Total U.S. = 208.6 Billion Pounds (+1.3% YoY) Upper Midwest +2.8 billion lbs Northeast +0.5 billion lbs California -1.4 billion lbs Source: USDA NASS
STATE MILK PRODUCTION (adjusted for leap year) 1,000 950 December = +3.9% Calendar YTD = +5.8% Million Lbs. 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2013 2014 2015 2016 Four states represents 52% of U.S. YTD increase in milk production.
U.S. Exports and Imports as % of Milk Production 2012 2016
Milk Production Summary for Major Exporters
It s a Changing Dairy Trade Environment 2003-14 2015-20 the new normal 1. EU quotas constrain supply Unrestricted EU production, but with government assistance 2. Returns from world market attractive Returns from world market less attractive 3. U.S. support program serves as price floor U.S. safety net is now margin insurance 4. Weak U.S. dollar Stronger U.S. dollar 5. Strong commodity cycle Weak commodity cycle 6. Strong China and Asian economic growth Lower Asian growth with some stress 7. Growing wealth in oil-producing countries Economic pressure on oil-producing countries 8. Free Trade Agreements (FTA s) pursued by most dairy exporters NZ, AU and EU have finished many FTA s while U.S. struggles with TPP and TTIP Source: USDEC
Production Correction is Building 2015-16 milk production volume change from prior year Top 5 Global Suppliers India Sub- Sahar. Africa
Michigan's Dairy Industry Dairy farmers facing economic challenges in 2016. Farm milk prices have dropped over 40% since 2014. Price outlook for 2017 shows some improvement.
Price ($/cwt) Changes in Milk Prices in Michigan, Dec. 2012 Nov. 2016 $25.00 $24.73/cwt. Sept. 2014 $20.00 $15.00 $13.98/cwt. Nov. 2016 $12.11/cwt. May 2016 $10.00 Dec. 1, 12 Jun. 1, 13 Dec. 1, 13 Jun. 1, 14 Dec. 1, 14 Jun. 1, 15 Dec. 1, 15 Jun. 1, 16 Dec. 1, 16
Michigan's Dairy Industry Current processing capacity will need to be expanded to accommodate milk production growth. MMPA members have invested over $100 million over the last seven years to expand MMPA processing facilities. Evaluation of further dairy expansion opportunities underway.
Cheese Plant Exploration of Joint Ownership of Cheese Plant
Deutsch Käse Haus, Middlebury, IN MMPA assumed ownership Nov. 1, 2016 Processes around 400,000 pounds of milk/day Allows MMPA to diversify its product portfolio Provides opportunities for expansion Located in close proximity to MMPA Constantine Plant Produces Colby cheese, a softer, milder flavored cheddar cheese, in addition to Colby-jack, Monterey-jack, Cheddar, pepper-jack cheese and other flavors.
Increased Demand for Milkfat Revised views on impact of dietary fat consumption on cardiovascular health and obesity has led to growth in consumption of milkfat in the U.S. domestic market Butter Fluid whole milk Yogurt Cheese Other products
Growth of the Middle Class The middle class is projected to grow by over 170% or more than 3 billion people from 2009 to 2030 Millions 6,000 5,000 4.9 Billion 4,000 3.2 Billion 3,000 2,000 1.8 Billion 1,000 0 World Population 2009 2020 2030
How the ARMS Survey Information Helps the Dairy Industry Understanding of Dairy Farm Trends farm sizes, cost of production, farm practices, farm finances, etc. Assists with U.S. Dairy Policy Discussions ex. 2018 Farm Bill Evaluate Impacts and Opportunities in Export market Information is used in discussions with Legislators, Regulatory Agency and University representatives.