NCHRP PROJECT 03-110: ESTIMATING THE LIFE-CYCLE COST OF INTERSECTION DESIGNS Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
NCHRP Project 03-110 2 Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions
Life-Cycle Costs in Practice 3 Current intersection evaluation practices vary widely by jurisdiction. Nearly all agencies consider the upfront initial capital improvement costs. Operation and maintenance costs are difficult for agencies to quantify. Some agencies consider the societal costs of crashes in evaluating alternatives, though these costs are typically used as informative values. Overall a desire to better compare life-cycle costs but no clear direction or established procedure.
NCHRP Project 03-110: Project 4 Objective Develop a spreadsheet-based tool for comparing life-cycle costs of alternative designs for new and existing intersections Demonstrate the application of the tool to range of options: Stop-controlled Traffic signal Roundabout Innovative designs
Project Team 5 Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Lee Rodegerdts, P.E., Principal Investigator Team: Wayne Kittelson, David Reinke, Joe Bessman, Matt Kittelson & Julia Knudsen ECONorthwest Carl Batten and Mike Wilkerson Write Rhetoric Technical Editing Danica Rhoades
NCHRP Project Panel and Staff 6 Rick Collins Panel Chair Gilbert Chlewicki Matthew Enders Jason Firman William Lambert John Powell Edward James Smaglik Jin Wang Richard Cunard, TRB Hilary Isebrands, FHWA Ray Derr, NCHRP staff
Products Available Online 7 TRB website http://www.trb.org/main/blurbs/173928.aspx Contents Final Report Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Six Case Studies Overview presentation (similar to this webinar)
NCHRP Project 03-110 8 Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions
Why B-C Analysis? 9 Consistent framework for comparing outcomes Assign dollar values to monetizable outcomes Values of outcomes based on market values Estimate present value of project costs over entire project lifetime Compare outcomes over time by discounting future costs Results are understandable Decision-makers General public
How to Do B-C Analysis 10 Select a base case For base case and alternatives: Calculate cost streams by year over life of alternative Convert costs to present value using discount rate Compute results Net present value Benefit-cost ratio Rate of return (seldom used)
Benefit-Cost Analysis 11 All alternatives are referenced to base case Benefits = reduction in user & nonuser costs compared to base case; e.g.: Travel time savings Crash reductions Emission reductions
Computing Outcomes 12 Net present value (NPV) = PV Benefits PV Costs + PV Salvage Benefit-cost ratio = PV Benefits PV Costs - PV Salvage
Computing Net Present Value 13 Future year costs converted to equivalent present year costs using a discount rate Discount rate reflects tradeoffs between current and future costs and benefits Discount rate = marginal productivity of capital + risk factor Typical discount rate for long-term public projects: ~4%
Compare Different Alternatives 14 Compare Types of transportation alternatives Scale Lifetime Types of policies Examples Supply-side vs demand side Capacity expansion vs operations management Single intersection vs corridor Short-term quick-fix vs intersection redesign Transportation vs other societal investments
Costing Outcomes: Costs 15 Outcome Planning & construction Operations & Maintenance Examples Planning cost Engineering cost Right of way Equipment Lighting Repaving Utility costs
Costs 16 Agency costs Agency costs should be familiar and relatively easy for agencies to estimate Unit costs may vary considerably between regions. We supply defaults based on national averages, but agencies likely may want to override. Guidance is focused on definitions and what to include/exclude
Costing Outcomes: Benefits 17 Outcome Examples Travel time Cost per hour by user type Reliability Safety Emissions Cost per standard deviation in travel time (σσ TT ); options pricing Cost/crash by type Cost/ton of pollutant by type Criteria pollutants Greenhouse gases
NCHRP Project 03-110 18 Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions
LCCET Overview 19 Travel demand model Link volumes Vehicles Passengers Operations analysis Travel time/delay Post processing Reliability Emissions Crashes LCCET Calculations User inputs Calculate benefits & costs Outputs NPV, B/C PV by category Costs & lifetime Capital O&M Lifetime of each alt. Analysis parameters Value of time Emissions costs Unit crash costs Discount rate
Addressing Different Lifespans - 20 Overview The LCCET treats life cycle as a variable to provide flexibility to adapt to the intersection and analysis context and analysis needs. Common analysis life cycle is likely to range between 20 and 40 years. Consider terminal and salvage values, when analysis period is shorter than the useful intersection life.
Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes 21 Identify the spatial and geometric layout of each alternative. Identify influence limits for each of the concepts. Back of queue Start of deceleration Overlay these influence limits, and establish a cordon line based on the most distant influence limit of the alternatives being considered. Record performance metrics for all vehicles from the time they enter to the time they exit this cordon limit for each of the concepts.
Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes 22 Unsaturated Conditions
Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes 23 Unsaturated Conditions
Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes 24 Unsaturated Conditions Cordon line
Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes 25 Oversaturated Conditions Cordon line must encompass network area where queuing exists or traffic volume/pattern changes occur. Microsimulation may be required. Separate consideration of Cordon Area and Modeling Area. System and Context Considerations Consider the area beyond the study intersection (e.g. land use, signal coordination, nearby failing intersections, etc.)
Addressing New Intersection Types 26 Use of the cordon methodology allows the LCCET to address new intersection types Assumes that all significant differences among alternatives are captured within the cordon and can be estimated within the cordon Life-cycle costs for new intersection types may be constrained by available capital and maintenance cost estimates or crash predictions
NCHRP Project 03-110 27 Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions
Case Study Overview 28 Case Study Location/Agency Base Case Alternatives 1 2 3 4 5 Eagle Road/State Street Ada County Highway District Eagle, Idaho Powell Butte Hwy/Neff Road Deschutes County Bend, Oregon Jackson School Road/Scotch Church Road/Meek Road Washington County Hillsboro, Oregon SR-123 (San Pablo Ave)/Bancroft Way Caltrans Alameda County, California US 40/MD 213 Maryland State Highway Administration Cecil County, Maryland Existing Signalized Intersection Existing Two-Way Stop Controlled Existing Offset Sidestreet Stop Controlled Existing Two-Way Stop Controlled Existing Signalized Intersection 6 Hypothetical Example All-Way Stop Controlled Multilane Roundabout Enhanced Signal Two Offset Intersections Single-lane Roundabout Single-lane Roundabout Signalized Intersection Signalized Intersection Median U-Turn Intersection Signalized Intersection Single-lane Roundabout
29 Example Case Study #1 Intersection Alternatives Evaluation Eagle Road/State Street intersection Ada County Highway District (ACHD) Eagle, Idaho Purpose: Develop a prioritized implementation plan identifying a preferred configuration and concept design for the Eagle Road/State Street intersection. Intersection alternatives considered Alternative 0: Base case (existing signalized intersection) Alternative 1: Roundabout (construction of a multilane roundabout) Alternative 2: Enhanced signalized intersection (expansion of the intersection as a signalized intersection)
Example Case Study #1 30 Alternative 1: Multilane Roundabout Alternative 2: Enhanced signalized intersection
Example Case Study #1 31 Alternative: Base Case Roundabout Enhanced Signal Base Analysis Year 2014 Future Analysis Year 2035 Average Annual Base 38,000 Daily Traffic (veh/d) Future 67,000 Total Entering Volume (Base) (veh/h) Total Entering Volume (Future) (veh/h) Annual Trucks Transit/Bicycles/Pedestrians Delay (Base) (s/veh) Delay (Future) (s/veh) Base Year Safety Performance AM 1,553 PM 2,117 Midday 2,164 AM 2,671 PM 3,535 Midday 3,484 Base 2% Future 4% Not considered AM 25 5 25 PM 27 30 27 Midday 26 28 26 AM 43 11 77 PM 93 49 77 Midday 93 45 72 PDO Crashes 5 7 5 Injury Crashes 2 1 2 Fatal Crashes 0 0 0 PDO Crashes 10 11 9 Future Year Safety Injury Crashes 4 1 4 Performance Fatal Crashes 0 0 0 Planning/Engineering Costs $0 $622,819 $687,714 Right-of-Way Costs $0 $811,000 $474,554 Construction Costs $0 $3,111,000 $3,438,572 Net Present Value $131,724,932 $76,412,191 $131,099,984 Benefits/Costs n/a 13.03 1.14
Example Case Study #1 32 Roundabout alternative results in the least cost. Enhanced signalized intersection alternative results in relatively small savings. An increased likelihood of crashes Modest savings in delay.
Example Case Study #5 33 Conceptual Design and Analysis US 40/MD 213 Maryland State Highway Administration (SHA) Elkton, Maryland Purpose Relieve congestion and improve intersection safety Candidate Safety Improvement Location Substantial number of crashes
Example Case Study #5 34 Intersection Alternatives Alternative 0: Base case (existing offset T-intersections) Alternative 1: Median U-turn intersection
Example Case Study #5 35 Determining the Delay at a Traditional Intersection
Example Case Study #5 36 Determining the Delay at a MUT Intersection
Example Case Study #5 37 Three components make up a vehicle s travel time within the cordon line. Running time Geometric delay Control delay Vehicles must be tracked between the same entry and exit points on the cordon line. TTTTTTTTTTTT tttttttt = rrrrrrrrrrrrrr tttttttt + gggggggggggggggggg dddddddddd + cccccccccccccc dddddddddd
Example Case Study #5 38 Comparison of Travel Time Movement PM Volume (vph) Running Time (s) Existing Median U-turn Geometric Delay (s) Existing Median U-turn Control Delay (s) Existing Median U-turn Travel Time (s) Existing Median U-turn EBL 147 34 77 8.9 21.9 62 41 105 140 EBT 698 45 45 0.0 0.0 31 23 76 67 EBR 390 34 34 8.5 8.5 115 21 158 63 WBL 114 28 77 8.9 21.9 42 60 79 159 WBT 1060 43 43 0.0 0.0 36 43 79 87 WBR 199 28 28 8.5 8.5 6 18 42 54 NBL 338 35 74 8.9 21.9 58 43 101 139 NBT 418 20 20 0.0 0.0 245 32 264 52 NBR 48 30 30 8.5 8.5 50 32 89 71 SBL 206 30 59 8.9 21.9 50 70 89 150 SBT 382 20 20 0.0 0.0 80 39 99 58 SBR 130 35 35 8.5 8.5 0 42 43 85 Weighted Average 35 42 3.3 5.8 69 36 107 85
Example Case Study #5 39 Alternative: Base Case Median U-Turn Base Analysis Year 2008 Future Analysis Year 2035 Average Annual Base 40,045 Daily Traffic (veh/d) Future 48,054 Total Entering AM 3,304 Vehicles (Base) PM 4,130 (veh/h) Midday n/a Total Entering AM n/a Vehicles (Future) PM 4,956 (veh/h) Midday n/a Annual Trucks Base 5% Future 5% Transit/Bicycles/Pedestrians Delay (Base) (s/veh) Delay (Future) (s/veh) Base Year Safety Performance Future Year Safety Performance n/a AM n/a n/a PM 107 85 Midday n/a n/a AM n/a n/a PM 131 104 Midday n/a n/a PDO Crashes n/a n/a Injury Crashes n/a n/a Fatal Crashes n/a n/a PDO Crashes n/a n/a Injury Crashes n/a n/a Fatal Crashes n/a n/a Planning/Engineering Costs n/a n/a Right-of-way Costs n/a n/a Construction Costs n/a n/a Net Present Value $5,560,511 $4,527,909 Benefits/Costs Estimated capital costs not included in analysis
Example Case Study #5 40 Median U-turn intersection alternative would cost nearly $1 million less than the existing base alternative over the life of the intersection. Auto passenger time cost parameter
NCHRP Project 03-110 41 Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions
Conclusions 42 Converts units of various metrics into Net Present Value Provide the user with national average values for various costs while allowing calibration Uses cordon concept Allows maximum flexibility to analyze a range of conditions: Single intersection Complex intersection or interchange Series of intersections Subarea or area Assumes that all significant differences among alternatives are captured within the cordon and can be estimated within the cordon
Conclusions (cont.) 43 LCCET Potential Applications Analysis of alternative designs for a single intersection/interchange or set of intersections/interchanges Programming/prioritizing/funding decisions across a large area Alternatives evaluations for corridors and subareas Signal retiming study along corridor Intersection maintenance/replacement/upgrade
NCHRP Project 03-110 44 Questions?