Climate Change and Global Food Security Philip Pardey Mark Seeley University of Minnesota The 25th Anniversary Nobel Peace Prize Forum March 9, 2013 Minneapolis, MN
Climate and Agriculture Climate matters through interactions with the Location of production Timing of production Other production choices of farmers Outputs Inputs Technology (research and development, R&D) 2
Long-term World Population 10,000 BC to 2100 10.00 2012 7.1 billion 2100 10.1 billion 8.00 1960 3.02 billion Billions 6.00 1930 2.07 billion Eve of Green Revolution 4.00 2.00 10,000 BC 1-10 million Invention of agriculture Hybrid corn 0-10,000 1850BC 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Source: United Nations (n.d. and 2012)
A Truly Dismal Tally Poverty (Developing world population living below $1.25 per day, 2005 PPP) 1981 : 52.2% (1.94 billion) 2008 : 22.4% (1.29 billion, around 70% live in rural areas) Malnutrition (In the developing world) 1969-71: 26% undernourished (878 million) 2006 08: 13% undernourished (850 million) (worldwide 1.4 billion overweight in 2008, doubled since 1980) Source: Chen and Ravallion (2012), FAO (2012), IFAD (2010) and WHO (2013)
Agricultural Land, Production & Population 8.0 1961 2.5 Population 3.1 bil Ag Land 4.5 bil ha VOP $746 bil billion 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Arable & permanent cropland (right-hand axis) Agricultural area Population VOP 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2004-06 trillion international $ Population 6.8 bil Ag Land 4.9 bil ha VOP $2.26 tril billion 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Arable & permanent cropland 2009 (right-hand axis) Agricultural area Population VOP 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2004-06 trillion international $
Global Crop Yields Averages, 1890-2008 (beta) 6 Yield (MT/Ha.) 5 4 3 2 1 Maize Wheat Rice Soybeans Millet 0 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Barley Maize Millet Rice, paddy Soybeans Wheat Source: Pardey et al. (forthcoming)
National Trends, Corn Production Bushels (millio Bushels (million) Acres (millions) Acres (million) 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 100 80 60 40 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year Yield (Bu/Ac) Yield (bu/ac) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Source: Created using data from USDA-NASS (2011). 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year 7
Climate Changes but Agriculture also Moves
Source: Beddow and Pardey (2013) U.S. Corn Shares by County
Source: Beddow and Pardey (2013) U.S. Corn Shares by County
Change in the Area Centroid: 1879-2007 Net Movement: West: 343 km North: 278 km Total: 441 km Source: Beddow and Pardey (2013)
Global Cropland Centroid Movements: 1700-2000 Source: Beddow et al. (2012) using data described in Ramankutty and Foley (1999).
Location, Climate and Other Agricultural Inputs
Corn Technology Adoption in the US 100 180 160 80 140 60 40 120 100 80 60 Yield (bu/ac) 20 40 20 0 0 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Beddow and Pardey (2013)
100 Corn Technology Adoption in the US 180 160 Adoption (percent of acres) 80 60 40 Nitrogen (adoption) Herbicide (adoption) 140 120 100 80 60 Yield (bu/ac) 20 40 20 0 0 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Beddow and Pardey (2013)
Location, Climate and Crop Yields Farmers change what they grow, when, where and how in response to changes in climate, technology, and markets (careful of the dumb farmer assumption) Crops move Spatial reallocation accounts for about 16-21 percent of the increase in U.S. corn output since 1909 U.S. corn is now grown in a climate that is 0.8 to 4.5 o C colder than in 1909 had it not moved (depending on the month)
Climate and Crop Pests
Wheat Rusts!
U.S. Wheat Losses Attributed to Stem Rust, 1918 to 2010 Source: Pardey et al. (2013)
Climate and Stem Rust Dry Stress Cold Stress Heat Stress Hot-Wet Stress Source: Beddow et al. (2013)
Global Occurrence and Persistence of Stem Rust Source: Pardey et al. (2013)
The Status of the Agricultural Sciences Globally
Global Public Agricultural R&D Pie, 1960 and 2009 Brazil 3% Other Asia&Pacific 5% Other LAC 7% India 2% 13% China 12% SSA 9% MENA 3% USA 22% 21% Other High Income 37% 1960 $5.5 billion (2005 PPP) Other LAC Brazil 5% 5% SSA 6% MENA 5% USA 14% 13% 2009 $33.5 billion (2005 PPP) 6% Other Asia&Pacific 5% India 6% Source: Pardey et al. (2013) China 19% Other High Income 35%
Top 10 Countries Country 1960-62 Country 2007-09 million 2005 PPP$ million 2005 PPP$ United States 1,214 China 5,767 China 433 United States 4,446 Germany 378 Japan 3,202 United Kingdom 294 India 1,837 Japan 290 Brazil 1,480 Canada 224 Germany 969 South Africa 205 Canada 872 Australia 161 France 868 Argentina 137 Spain 793 Brazil 135 South Korea 792 Source: Pardey et al. (2013)
Slowing Growth in U.S. Agricultural R&D Spending Percent per year (2009 prices) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1950-60s 1970-80s 1990-2000s Source: Pardey et al. (2013)
CGIAR IFPRI Food policy Washington, D.C., USA CIMMYT Maize and wheat Mexico City, Mexico IPGRI Agricultural biodiversity Rome, Italy WARDA Rice in West Africa Bouaké, Côte d Ivoire ICARDA Agriculture in the dry areas Aleppo, Syria ICRISAT Semi-arid tropical agriculture Patancheru, India ICLARM Fisheries Penang, Malaysia CIAT Tropical agriculture Cali, Colombia IRRI Rice Los Baños, Philippines CIP Roots and tubers Lima, Peru IITA Tropical agriculture Ibadan, Nigeria ICRAF Agroforestry and ILRI Livestock Nairobi,Kenya IWMI Water resources Colombo, Sri Lanka CIFOR Forestry Bogor, Indonesia CGIAR 15 Future Harvest research centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR).
Saving Seeds (in Genebanks) Corn CYMMIT, El Batan, Mexico Cow Peas IITA, Ibadan, Nigeria Cassava-- In Vitro Tissue Culture Collection at CIAT, Cali, Colombia Rice Active Collection at IRRI, Los Baños Philippines
Punch Line(s) Assuring affordable access to food is still a big problem Adapting to climate (and other, e.g., economic) change is a big challenge Investment in science is critical to dealing with climate change Decisions taken now affect agriculture for decades to come
The People Most Affected
Thank You! www.instepp.umn.edu www.harvestchoice.org