EWG 53 / Singapore Shinji ISHII Agency for Natural Resources and Energy Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) Japan
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Agency for Natural Resources and Energy Contents 1. Toward Long term Energy Supply and Demand Outlook Renewable energy: New FIT scheme Energy efficiency: Expansion of Item of Top Runner Program Nuclear Power Plant: Latest situation 2. Energy Market Reform Liberalization of Gas market 3. LNG Producer Consumer Conference 2016 2017 1
1-1. Energy demand and primary energy supply Energy demand Primary energy supply 361 million kl Economic growth 1.7%/year Thorough energy efficiency and conservation 50.3 million kl 13% lower than before the implementation of the energy conservation measures 489 million kl Renewable energy 13 to 14% Nuclear power 10 to 11% Selfsufficiency rate 24.3% Electric power 25% Final energy consumption 326 million kl Electric power 28% Natural gas 18% Coal 25% Heat, gasoline, town gas, etc. 75% Heat, gasoline, town gas, etc. 72% LPG 3% Petroleum 30% 2013 (Actual result) 2030 (After energy conservation measures) 2030 * Values are approximate. 2
1-2. Power demand and power source composition Power demand Economic growth 1.7%/year Thorough energy efficiency and conservation 196.1 billion kwh 17% lower than before the implementation of the energy conservation measures (Power transmission /distribution loss, etc.) Energy conservation + renewable energy account for 40%. (Total generated energy) 1,278 billion kwh Energy conservation 17% Renewable energy 19 to 20% Power source composition (Total generated energy) 1,065 billion kwh Renewable energy 22 to 24% Geothermal 1.0 to 1.1% Biomass 3.7 to 4.6% Wind power 1.7% Solar power 7.0% Nuclear power 17 to 18% Nuclear power 20 to 22% Hydroelectric 8.8 to 9.2% Electric power 966.6 billion kwh Electric power 980.8 billion kwh LNG 22% LNG 27% 2013 (Actual result) Coal 22% Petroleum 2% 2030 2030 Coal 26% Petroleum 3% Base load ratio: 56% * Values are approximate. 3
GW 1-3. Deployment of RE and Amendment of FIT Rapid spread of RE under FIT scheme raises some challenges such as cost effectiveness. Amendment of FIT in place from April 2017 will balance between spread of RE and cost allocation. Amendment of Feed in Tarif(FIT) Capacity of Renewable Energy without large hydro pump July, 2012 FIT starts (RE capacity increased to 2.5 times in 3.5 years) 4 Annual average ratio +5% Annual average ratio +9% Annual average ratio+29% Challenges Partial to PV PV occupied 90% of RE capacity 310 thousand PV cases are authorized, but not operated Market mechanism 1)Additional Conditions Focused on O&M Cost Effectiveness Total tariff of 2300 Bill. yen in 2016. In 2030, tariff should be 3700-4000 Bill. yen Mechanism changing such as liberalization and unbundling New FIT scheme starts in Apr. 2017 4)Measures for Industrial sector 2) Cost Effectiveness Mega-solar auction Mid-term target of purchase price 5) TSO/DSO Purchase Flexible wide area power pool increase RE. RPS FIT (only for Surplus residential PV) FIT 3) Wind Farm, Geothermal Power etc The price along several years provided previously. Spreading RE and cost allocation should be balanced Energy mixture target:re 22-24% on 2030 4
1-4. Deployment of RE and Amendment of FIT Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Agency for Natural Resources and Energy Energy conservation standards according to the Top Runner Program have been implemented for automobiles and household electrical appliances according to Act on the Rational Use of Energy as amended in 1998. 31 equipment and materials are subject to these standards. <Equipment subject to Top Runner Program according to Act on the Rational Use of Energy> Fuel economy (km/l) 16 Example of Top Runner Program 15km/L 14km/L 13km/L 12km/L 19km/L 18km/L 17km/L 15km/L Judgment made with weighted average for each product category. When standards are set Target fiscal year Energy Conservation Standards according to Top Runner Program 1. Passenger vehicles 2. Air conditioners 3. Lighting equipment (Using only fluorescent lamps as main light source) 4. TV sets 5. Copying machines 6. Computers 7. Magnetic disk units 8. Freight Vehicles 9. Video cassette recorders 10. Electrical refrigerators 31equipment and materials 11. Electrical freezers 22. Routers 12. Space heaters 23. Switching unitts 13. Gas cooking appliances 24. Multifunction devices 14. Gas water heaters 25. Printers 15. Oil water heaters 26. Electric water heaters 16. Electric toilet seats 27. AC motors 17. Vending machines 28. Self-ballasted LED lamps 18. Transformers 29. Insulation materials 19. Electric rice cookers 30. Sashes 20. Microwave ovens 31. Multi-paned glazing 21. DVD recorders Building materials 5
Kashiwazaki Kariwa Shika Nuclear Power Plants in Japan (As of March 31, 2017) 31 26 23 22 26 20 19 27 25 6 Tomari Ohma Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Agency for Natural Resources and Energy Tsuruga Mihama Ohi Takahama Shimane Genkai Sendai 29 23 10 40 37 36 24 23 42 41 31 31 (Unit 3) Restarted in Jan. 2016 (Unit 4) Restarted in Feb. 2016 (Unit 3,4) Lifted provisional injunction in Mar. 2017 27 35 22 19 32 31 (Unit 1) Restarted in Aug. 2015 (Unit 2) Restarted in Oct. 2015 Ikata 38 34 21 Hamaoka (Unit 3) Restarted in Aug. 2016 Tokai Tokai Daini 29 38 23 11 Reactor-type ABWR BWR PWR 10 Higashidori(Tokyo) Higashidori(Tohoku) Onagawa 32 21 14 Fukushima Daiichi Age Fukushima Daini 34 32 31 29 Decided to be permanent shutdown (Total 15 Units) Under NRA Review (Total 21 Units) Restarted (Total 5Units) * Takahama 3,4 are temporally shutdown due to provisional injunction lifted on Mar. 2017. Not Start Operation 6
2. Energy Market Reform April 2016 - market liberalization for electricity retail April 2017 - market liberalization for gas retail Next step should be unbundling between generators and DSO/TSOs. Policies will be discussed, such as activation of the wholesale electricity business market, capacity market, zero-emission value market and so on. Schedule for market liberalization April 2015 April 2016 April 2017 April 2020 April 2022 Electricity Gas Phase1: Organization for Crossregional Coordination of Transmission Operators Market monitoring Committee Establishment of Committee for electricity market monitoring (Sep.2015) Phase2: Market liberalization for electricity retail Start of monitoring for gas market Soft landing term Market liberalization for gas retail Phase3: Unbundling for DSO/TSO After April 2020, we can lift the restriction of fees for each company depending on business situation Unbundling pipe line business After April 2017, we can lift the restriction of fees for each company depending on business situation 7
3. LNG Producer Consumer Conference 2016 Held every year since 2012 as a platform to exchange ideas and enhance cooperation among producers, consumers and all the other key players. At the 6 th Conference held in November 2016, participants shared their perspectives on the LNG market outlook, with a focus on key themes: i) Pathways to Develop Flexible and Liquid LNG Market; ii) Opportunities in Emerging LNG Markets in Asia; and iii) LNG Price Assessment towards Global LNG Market Development The 6 th LNG Producer Consumer Conference 2016 Held on November 24 th 2016, Tokyo Hosted by Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry (METI) and Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) Participated by over 1,000 people from 32 countries and regions Key Speakers include: H.E. Hiroshige Seko, Minister of Economy, Trade & Industry, Japan (host) Ministers from Qatar, Brunei, Nigeria, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines and Thailand Heads of international organizations (IEA, IEF, Energy Charter, ERIA) Business Executives, including Anadarko, BP, CPC, GAIL, JBIC, JERA, Novatek, Pavilion, Pertamina, Petronas, Shell, Tokyo Gas, Total, Trafigura, Woodside, PRAs Argus, ICIS, Rim, Platts, SGX We will hold the 7th Conference in Tokyo on October,2017 8
Thank you for attention! 9