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The methodology used for assessing recent occupational labour market conditions relies on information from three primary labour market indicators (unemployment rate, wages and employment), as well as information from additional indicators (such as job vacancies, overtime and EI information), and involves a careful analysis of that information. If the indicators in a particular occupation (or skill level) behave similarly to all occupations, no signs of broad imbalances are said to be found. However, if the indicators are significantly different than the average for all occupations, it would suggest the presence of imbalanced (shortage or surplus) labour markets. Once the analysis of the recent occupational labour market conditions is done, COPS estimates the projected number of job openings and job seekers over the period of 2015 to 2024. Job openings can result from employment growth (or expansion demand) and replacement of workers (retirements, deaths and emigration). On the other hand, the sources of new job seekers include full time students leaving the school system as graduates or drop outs to join the labour market (school leavers), new immigrants and net re entrants. In addition to job seekers and job openings, COPS takes into account changes in the labour market composition through occupational mobility. Finally, the assessment of recent labour market conditions and the projections of job openings and job seekers are combined together to produce the final assessment of future labour market conditions. By looking at prospective changes in both the demand and supply sides of the labour market, COPS allows for identifying occupations where potential labour market imbalances are expected to persist or develop. 2
For more information on the 292 occupational grouping used in COPS, please visit: http://occupations.esdc.gc.ca/sppc cops/l.3bd.2t.1ilshtml@ eng.jsp?lid=59&fid=1&lang=en 3
This table summarizes the results of the assessment of occupational labour market conditions over 2012 to 2014. The assessment found 17 occupations showing signs of labour shortage. They represent about 6% of the occupations analyzed, and about 6% of the 2014 Canadian employment. Most of them typically require some form of post secondary education or apprenticeship training and are predominantly in health, skilled trades related professions and occupational groupings related to applied sciences. On the other hand, 18 occupations where found to show signs of labour surplus. They represent about 6% of the occupations analyzed, and about 4% of the 2014 employment. Most of them typically require only a high school diploma or on the job training and are predominantly in the sales and services occupations. 4
Once the analysis of the recent occupational labour market conditions is done, COPS estimates the projected number of job openings and job seekers over the period of 2015 to 2024. This is done in order to identify if recent labour market imbalances are expected to persist or if new imbalances are expected to develop over the projection period. Projections of job openings and job seekers are conducted at the occupational level and results are then aggregated by skill level. Skill levels are generally defined as the amount and type of education and training required to enter and perform the duties of an occupation. There are five broad skill level categories: 1) management occupations; 2) skill level A, which includes occupations usually requiring university education; 3) skill level B which includes occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training; 4) skill level C which includes occupations usually requiring secondary school and/or occupation specific training; and 5) skill level D which includes occupations for which on the job training is usually provided. For more information on the occupational analysis, please see the documents titled Job Openings and Job Seekers. 5
The projections show that a total of 5.95 million job openings (those due to economic growth plus those due to replacement needs) are expected over the period 2015 to 2024. Two thirds (65.9%) of these are in occupations that usually require post secondary education (college, university or vocational) or in management occupations. More specifically: 71.0% of jobs created by economic expansion are expected to be in occupations generally requiring post secondary education or in management. Similarly 64.3% of job openings due to replacement are in these skill levels, for a combined average of 65.9% (around 3.93 million). High skill and management occupations accounted for 61.5% of total employment in 2014. On the other hand, about one third of job openings (around 2.02 million) over the projection period are expected to be in occupations requiring high school education or only on the job training. 6
It is projected that a total of 5.83 million job seekers (from the school system, immigration or other sources) will enter the labour market over the period 2015 to 2024. About two thirds (64.8% around 3.81 million individuals) of these entrants are anticipated to be in occupations that usually require post secondary education (college, university or vocational) or in management occupations. More specifically: More than half of new immigrants (55.6%) are expected to seek work in occupations generally requiring post secondary education (PSE) or in management. Although 73.3% of school leavers will have PSE, only 77.6% of them are expected to seek or find work in occupations usually requiring university or college education. Historically, about 81% of school leavers with PSE have found work in occupations directly related to their level of education. Occupational mobility is also expected to add job seekers to high skill occupations from lowerskill ones. This upward mobility is the result of high skilled/educated workers in low skill occupations seeking work in occupations that better match their skills, as well as career promotion paths into high skill and management occupations. Occupations usually requiring PSE and management occupations accounted for 61.5% of total employment in 2014. By contrast, over the period 2015 to 2024, one third of job seekers (around 2.02 million) are expected to look for work in occupations requiring high school education or only on the job training. 7
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By skill level, the indicators used to assess recent labour market conditions did not behave in a substantially different way from the average of all occupations, suggesting little or no evidence of labour market imbalances by broad skill level in recent years. 9
This chart shows, for each skill level, the projected ratios average of job openings (vertical axis) and job seekers (horizontal axis) as a annual percentage of their respective employment level in 2014. For example, a ratio of job openings to employment of 4% indicates that the average annual number of job openings (from expansion and replacement demand) in a given skill level over the projection period represents 4% of its employment level in 2014. For points close to the 45 line, the expected ratios of job openings and job seekers to employment are relatively similar. That is, no major imbalances between the number of job openings and job seekers are expected. On the other hand, any point markedly away from the 45 line would signal potential labour market imbalances. Towards the upper left (green) corner, the signals would be of excess demand. Towards the lower right (red) corner, the signals would be of excess supply conditions. Overall, all skill groupings fall close to the 45 line, which means that job openings (demand) and job seekers (supply) by skill level are projected to be broadly in balance over the period 2015 to 2024. With limited or no evidence of imbalances between labour demand and supply in recent years, and with the projections showing a similar number of job openings and job seekers for each broad skill level over the period 2015 to 2024, no major pressures by skill level are expected over the period 2015 to 2024. 10
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Even when labour market conditions are broadly in balance for an aggregate skill level, imbalances (excess demand or supply) can exist in many occupations within that skill level. This chart shows, for each of the 292 occupations analyzed, the projected annual average of job openings (vertical axis) and job seekers (horizontal axis) as a percentage share of their respective employment level in 2014. Occupations are colour coded according to their NOC skill level. For points close to the 45 line, the expected ratios of job openings and job seekers to employment are relatively similar. That is, no major imbalance between new job openings and job seekers are expected. On the other hand, any point substantially further from the boundary lines (dotted lines) would signal potential imbalances between the number of job openings and the number of job seekers. Towards the lower right corner, it signals that the occupation has a higher rate of job seekers than of job openings (excess supply). Towards the upper left corner, it signals that the occupation has a higher rate of job openings than of job seekers (excess demand). The overall distribution of the growth in the supply and demand of labour determines the position of those boundaries. The majority of the 292 occupations are in proximity of the 45⁰ line, indicating an expectation of overall balance situation over the period 2015 to 2024. However, some occupations, mainly highskill, are expected to have ratios of job openings to employment that exceed those from job seekers (excess demand). On the other hand, some other occupations mostly requiring secondary schooling and some requiring college education or apprenticeship training are projected to have ratios of job seekers to employment that exceed those from job openings (excess supply). However, these results only show us the expected imbalances between the projected number of job openings and job seekers. 12
The table above presents a summary of the projected labour market conditions at the occupational level. The rows present the occupational split between occupations showing signs of shortage, surplus or balanced conditions in recent years. The columns show the distribution of occupations with projected gaps between job openings and job seekers over the period 2015 to 2024. The intersection of rows and columns shows the final projected labour market conditions. For example, occupations that were first found to show signs of shortage in recent years (first row) and whose projected job openings are substantially higher than job seekers (first column), are expected to face shortage conditions over the projection period. Hence, all occupations in the green cells are expected to face shortage conditions over the projection period. This is because their shortage conditions in recent years are not expected to be eliminated over the projection period, or because those that were found to be in balance in recent years are expected to have a shortfall of their projected number of job seekers in comparison to job openings. On the other hand, occupations in the red cells display a certain level of surplus pressures. The occupations in the white cell in the middle of the table are occupations expected to be balanced over the projection period. Note: In a diversified economy such as Canada s, with different regions having quite different industrial mixes and demographics, a national level assessment of pressures in occupational labour markets could easily mask major differences across regions. Some parts of the country may be facing a labour shortfall in an occupation while other regions may have excess supply in that same occupation. Also, it is important to remember that the analysis is based on broad occupational groupings. Therefore, although the projections show balance conditions for all university professors, there might be some particular fields of study facing shortage or surplus conditions. For example, there might be a sufficient number of mathematics professors but a shortage of engineering professors. 13
The table above presents the projected labour market conditions for all 292 occupations (4 digit or occupational groupings). The large majority of the occupations (216, those in the white cell) are expected to have a balanced outlook. These occupations represented about 77.9% of the employment in 2014. Occupations expected to face shortage conditions (30, in the green cells) represented about 9.4% of the 2014 employment, while occupations expected to face surplus conditions (46, those in the red cells) represented about 12.6% of the 2014 employment. 14
A large number of occupations that are expected to face labour shortage (excess labour demand) over the projection period are in health, natural and applied sciences, trades, transport and equipment. They are almost all high skilled occupations (occupations usually requiring a college or a university education, or management occupations). The analysis of recent labour market conditions suggests that all the occupations projected to be in excess demand over the medium term were already in that situation or in balance in recent years. For instance, higher health care needs due to population ageing will increase demand for several health care occupations. Over the medium term, additional pressures will come from retirements in the health occupations. The number of job openings resulting from retirements will surpass those from new job creation. Therefore, despite the increase in the supply of new workers, the strong labour demand in health occupations is expected to exceed markedly the expected supply over the projection period. Men are more represented than women in most occupations projected to face shortage conditions, with the exception of occupations in health and in the social science, education, government service and religion sectors. All occupations in trades, transport and equipment or manufacturing and utilities projected to face shortage conditions are male dominated. Althoughtheshareofwomeninnaturalandappliedsciencesandrelatedoccupationshasincreased over the last two decades, all occupations facing shortage conditions in this sector employed more men than women in 2014. 15
Over the 2012 to 2014 period, employment growth in this occupational group was below the average of all occupations. The unemployment rate remained relatively stable and very low at 1.3% in 2014, well below the national average of 6.9%. The increase in the average hourly wage was at par with the average of all occupations. Hence, analysis of key labour market indicators suggests that the number of job seekers was sufficient to fill the job openings in this occupational group. Over the period 2015 to 2024, for Psychologists, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 10,000 while job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to total 8,800, which means that over 1,000 jobs would remain unfilled. Based on the analysis of recent labour market conditions and the projections, it is expected that this occupation will face a labour shortage over the 2015 to 2024 period. Job openings are projected to arise mainly from retirements but also from a strong expansion demand. Although employment growth is expected to be much stronger than the economic average, it is projected to be substantially weaker than what was recorded over the 2005 2014 period. Employment growth in this occupation will be fuelled by the public s greater awareness to social needs such attributable to the aging population, mentalhealth, violence and others. However, this strong growth is expected to slow down over the projection period because demand for psychologists also depends on the level of governments spending, which will be restrained due to deficit reduction commitments made by many governments. Positions left vacant because of retirement are expected to account for nearly 55% of available jobs. The retirement rate is expected to be similar to the average of all occupations. With regard to labour supply, occupational movers are projected to account for the majority of job seekers. Most of them will come from being university professors and lecturers (NOC 4011) or post secondary teaching and research assistants (NOC 4012) in the psychology field and will decide to start or resume practicing. School leavers and new immigrants are expected to represent about 45% of job seekers. This relatively low number is notably due to the fact that a doctoral degree in psychology is required to use the designation psychologist in many provinces. Moreover, the successful completion of the written Examination for Professional Practice in Psychology (EPPP) and the registration with the regulatory body required in all provinces is also expected to limit the number of individuals seeking employment in this occupational group. 16
There are also several occupations that are projected to face labour surplus conditions over the projection period. Surplus conditions are projected to be more evenly distributed across high (usually requiring post secondary or more) and low skill (usually requiring high school diploma or less) occupations than occupations with shortage conditions. Some of the occupations facing surplus conditions are related to administrative and clerical work, such as office equipment operators, secretaries and clerks. For some time now, the nature of clerical and office work has been changing as tasks have become increasingly specialized. In addition, following the introduction of new technologies, the productivity in clerical and administrative occupations has increased, reducing the number of workers needed to do the same quantity of work. Some computer related occupations are also in the list. Although employment growth is expected to be strong for these occupations, the relative contribution of retirements to job openings is anticipated to be below the national average as workers in these occupations are typically younger. Furthermore, the projections show a large pool of students registering in related fields of study, which will seek employment opportunities in these occupations. These occupations are also amongst the ones receiving the highest proportion of immigrants. There are also some occupations specific to the primary, and processing, manufacturing and utilities sectors, where employment growth (expansion demand) is not projected to be as strong as in the rest of the economy. For instance, a large number of occupationsin the processing and manufacturing industries are expecting to face limited or declining employment growth due to the intensification of international competition, especially from low cost countries. Also, gains in productivity in those sectors will limit employment growth over the projection period. 17
Over the period 2012 2014, employment in this occupation declined at a faster rate than the average for all occupations. The unemployment rate slightly increased to 11.2%, well above the national average of 6.9% in 2014. The average hourly wage decreased by 1.1% over the projection period. These key labour market indicators suggest that the number of job seekers was greater than the number of job openings in recent years. Over the period 2014 2025, for Data entry clerks & Desktop publishing operators and related occupations, job openings (arising from expansion demand and replacement demand) are expected to total 9,900 while job seekers (arising from school leavers, immigration and mobility) are expected to total 12,100. Based on the analysis of recent labour market conditions and the projections, it is expected that the labour surplus will continue over the period 2015-2024. All of the job openings are expected to result from replacement demand, specifically the need to replace individuals who will retire. As a result of technological advances, employment is expected to continue decreasing over the projection period. The retirement rate will be at par with the average of all occupations. With regard to labour supply, most job seekers will come directly from the school system. Immigration will also account for a sizeable number of job seekers over the projection period. However, because of the low wages and poor job prospects, many workers are expected to leave this occupation over the next few years, primarily for other clerical or administrative occupations. This will likely eliminate part, but not all of the labour surplus in this occupation. 18
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Overall, the management skill level is projected to be in balance over the period 2015 to 2024 period. In 2014, this skill level, which includes 29 occupations, employed about 1.6 million workers (9.2% of total employment). Over the projection period, about 660,000 job openings and 622,000 job seekers are expected in this skill level. The main source of job seekers for these occupations is vertical mobility (58%) as experienced workers from other skill levels seek to fill vacant management positions. The majority of the occupations (28 out of 29) within this skill level are expected to face balanced conditions over the projection period. Those occupations employed about 1.6 million workers in 2014 (9.1% of total employment). However, imbalances are projected for one occupation within this skill level. Indeed, over the period 2015 to 2024, only Managers in communication except broadcasting. Indeed, this occupation, accounting for 12,000 workers in 2014, is expected to face surplus conditions over the 2015 to 2024 period. Employment in this occupation represented only 0.1% of total employment in 2014. No occupations are expected to face shortage conditions over the projection period. 20
Overall, skill level A (occupations usually requiring university education) is projected to be in balance over the period 2015 to 2024. In 2014, this skill level, which includes 59 occupations, employed about 3.4 million workers (19% of total employment). Over the projection period, we expect about 1,318,000 job openings and 1,235,000 job seekers in this skill level. Despite an apparent excess demand, this difference is not sufficient to conclude to a broad shortage of workers in occupations usually requiring university education. The majority of the occupations (41 out of 59) within this skill level are expected to face balanced conditions over the projection period. Those occupations employed 2.3 million workers in 2014 (13.0% of total employment). However, imbalances are projected for several occupations within this skill level. Over the period 2015 to 2024, fifteen occupations are projected to face shortage conditions. Employment in those occupations represented 865,000 workers in 2014 (4.9% of total employment). On the other hand, three occupations in this skill level, accounting for 209,000 workers in 2014, are expected to face surplus conditions over the projection period. Employment in these occupations represented 1.2% of total employment in 2014. 21
Overall, skill level B (occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training) is projected to be in balance over the period 2015 to 2024. In 2014, this skill level, which includes 120 occupations, employed about 5.9 million workers (33.4% of total employment). Over the projection period, we expect similar number of job openings and job seekers (1.95 million) in this skill level. The majority of the occupations (86 out of 118) within this skill level are expected to face balanced conditions over the projection period. Those occupations employed 4.4 million workers in 2014 (24.8% of total employment). However, imbalances are projected for several occupations within this skill level. Over the period 2015 to 2024, fourteen occupations are projected to face shortage conditions. Employment in those occupations represented 497,000 workers in 2014 (2.8% of total employment). On the other hand, twenty occupations in this skill level, accounting for 1,026,000 workers in 2014, are expected to face surplus conditions over the projection period. Employment in these occupations represented 5.8% of total employment in 2014. 22
Overall, skill level C (occupations usually requiring secondary school) is projected to be in balance over the period 2015 to 2024. In 2014, this skill level, which includes 64 occupations, employed about 4.9 million workers (27.6% of total employment). Over the projection period, we expect similar number of job openings and job seekers (1.5 million) in this skill level. The majority of the occupations (49 out of 64) within this skill level are expected to face balanced conditions over the projection period. Those occupations employed about 4.0 million workers in 2012 (22.3% of total employment). However, imbalances are projected for several occupations within this skill level. Over the period 2015 to 2024, one occupations is projected to face shortage conditions. Employment in this occupation represented 317,000 workers in 2014 (1.8% of total employment). On the other hand, fourteen occupations in this skill level, accounting for about 616,000 workers in 2014, are expected to face surplus conditions over the projection period. Employment in these occupations represented 3.5% of total employment in 2014. 23
Overall, skill level D (occupations usually requiring on the job training) is projected to be in balance over the period 2015 to 2024. In 2014, this skill level, which includes 20 occupations, employed about 2.0 million workers (11.0% of total employment). Over the projection period, we expect about 526,000 job openings and about 555,000 job seekers in this skill level. Despite an apparent excess supply, this difference is not sufficient to conclude to a broad surplus of workers in occupations usually requiring on the job training. Over the period 2015 to 2024, twelve out of 20 occupation in this skill level, are expected to face balanced conditions. Employment in these occupations represented 1.6 million workers (8.9% of total employment) in 2014. No occupation in this skill level is projected to face shortage conditions. On the other hand, eight occupations within this skill level are expected to face surplus conditions. Those occupations employed 382,000 workers in 2014 (2.1% of total employment). 24