North American Supply Chain What s in it for Canada? By Bill Luttrell Werner Enterprises, Inc. Toronto, Canada October 31, 2016
Werner Enterprises, Inc. and Werner Logistics 2
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT & INTERNATIONAL TRADE In the history of Mankind, no other activities on Earth have lifted so many people from the throngs of dire poverty than global direct investment and international trade. Paul lwlf Wolfensohn, former President of the World ldbank 4
Global Shifts in Logistics Globalization moving toward Regionalization Advances in Communications and Transportation helped accelerate Globalization Hyper competition in International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Developed (OECD) and Developing Countries in all major geographical regions Growing consumer markets, especially in Emerging Countries (ECs) Wage parity gap is closing Decoupling of the US consumer market and its influence on global economics 5
Global Shifts in Logistics Globalization moving toward Regionalization (Continued) Sourcing has become relatively balanced in all of the Regions Low cost manufacturing becoming more geographically remote Supply side of the Supply Chain becoming more complex & expensive Demand side of Supply Chain focused on Fulfillment Excellence Nearshoring, Reshoring: shorter lead times enables local customization Manufacturing and Retail both focusing on Logistics Excellence Location dictating Logistics Logistics dictating Location 6
International Trade Volumes Down Worldwide Since 2014 G20 total International Trade has continued to contract Imports and Exports. Imports up, Exports down in the US Exports did pick up in Canada while Imports contracted. Trade accounts for over half of Canada s GDP Canada dependent on Trade In Mexico both Imports and Exports grew. Exports and Imports by the European Union (EU28) continue to fall except for Germany where Exports and Imports grew for the first time since the second quarter of 2014. 7 7
Prolonged slow recovery of Developed (OECD) Countries Europe especially recovering very slowly, EU in turmoil Ai Asia Pacific OECD members Japan, Korea, Australia, and Singapore are flat The United States recovering slowly, Mexico Near Shoring Decoupling from US Consumption driven global growth OECD member Wages have stalled Political and Social Volatility are hitting Developed Countries Terrorism, Immigration and other large issues are looming 8
FDI Capital Flows are turning back to safety of Developed Countries Inbound Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 9
FDI Greenfield and M&A Investments 10
GLOBAL COMMODITIES 11
Apparent end to the Commodity Super Cycle 1990 s to 2000 was a Commodity Super Cycle (Oil, Copper, etc.) China s growth in particular fueled Commodity demand and pricing Global recession in 2008, Over production of Commodities in Emerging Markets peak in 2013 Since 2014 collapse in Commodity demand & prices especially oil Currencies weaken against the US$ Commodity heavy ECs have growing ginflation 58% of Canada s Exports are Commodities (Coal, Oil, Gas, Potash, Lumber, Iron Ore, Agriculture, Fishing, Fertilizers) 12
Apparent end to the Commodity Super Cycle The World Bank latest Commodity Markets Report for 2016 predicts a downward trajectory across all main commodity price indices in 2016 and beyond, especially in the cases of Industrial Commodities (Metals & Energy), but also in Ag and Mining. The prices of 37 out of 46 commodities are expected to drop further in 2016. 13 13
Emerging Markets seeing a Reversal of Capital Flows (FDI) and Trade Especially EM countries with sizable current account deficits Growing FX exposure, especially if US Fed raise interest rates / inflation EM growth forecasts are cut financing of investment & trade down Both banks & institutional investors are cutting lending & investment EM Sovereign & Corporate Debt are rising / $4 T in 2004 $18T in 2014 Emerging Market growth is tailing off, changing economic models dl China devalues Renmimbi (CNY/CNH), Russia hit hard with sanctions 14
Setting the Global Stage GDP Growth Rates 2005 2020 (*F) GDP Growth Percent Change Developed (Advanced) Countries vs. Emerging Market & Developing Economies Advanced Economies Prolonged Slow Recovery Emerging Market Economies Reversal on Investment and Trade 15
LOGISTICS OVERVIEW 16
North American Logistics Shifts 70% of shippers think a chance for a mild recession in North America in 4 12 mo. Factory output soft, but capacity utilization i is improving i in both the US U.S. & Canada Consumer demand down overall, labor market slowdown Mexico Nearshoring is exploding with activity, 80% of goods cross at Laredo, Texas Canada slowly moving away from being a Capital rich nation, Diversification needed! Retail Sales booming (helped by e Commerce: 2000 = 1%, 2016 = 7% in the US) Panama Canal expansion complete Suez Canal expansion also complete 17
Global Logistics Shifts Global Maritime Trade Routes 18
North America Logistics Shifts Prince Rupert Vancouver Halifax 19
Mexico and Caribbean Logistics Shifts Panama Canal and Mexican Landbridge 20
Canadian Railroads Slow but Steady Recovery 21 21
Canadian Railroads Slow but Steady Recovery 22 22
23 Trucking in Canada
Canadian Highway System 20 24
Crossborder Trucking Issues US carriers without Canadian licenses cannot move loads domestically within Canada (cabotage), and vice versa. Pending Canadian Legislation on Regulations Caution! Currency Exchange has flipped Head-Haul / Back-Haul Customs Issues are coordinated with US / NAFTA Limited border crossings and congestion are concerns (Detroit Montreal corridor). 6 Million truck border crossings annually No TOFC in Canada, only in US and Mexico 80% of truck traffic is in Ontario and Quebec 16% shipping price uptick in Logistics from the US to Canada 21 25
Future Issues??? US Elections? US Canadian Border Security Issues? Mexico Nearshoring Boom? International Trade Agreements (TPP, CETA, NAFTA)? Future US Port Slowdowns or Strikes? Possible breaking with historical US Truck Regulations / Coordination? 22 26
Thank You For more information visit: www.werner.com Follow us on Facebook and Twitter For more information please contact: Bill Luttrell Senior Locations Strategist Office: 402.895.6640 ext. 4420 Cell: 402.578.3414 E mail: bluttrell@wernervas.com