PAST,PRESENT & FUTURE ANIL SHAH PRESIDENT NI-MET METALS INC. SMR STAINLESS STEEL CONFERENCE 27-28 TH OCTOBER, 2015, CHICAGO
SMR STAINLESS STEEL CONFERENCE 27-28 TH OCTOBER,2015 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 01 2013 2014 2015
02 ABOUT NI-MET METALS INC. WHY INDIA IS SO IMPORTANT INDIA S INFRASTRUCTURE PAST- PRESENT- FUTURE VARIOUS FORMS OF NICKEL AS A RAW MATERIAL INDIA S IMPORT DUTY STRUCTURE INDIA S IMPORT STATASTICS STAINLESS RAW MATERIAL INDIA S STAINLESS PRODUCTION CONCLUSION
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04 WHY INDIA IS SO IMPORTANT?
05 IT IS IMPORTANT HOW WE VIEW THE YOUTH OF OUR NATION. TO SIMPLY CONSIDER THEM AS NEW AGE VOTERS WILL BE A BIG MISTAKE. THEY ARE THE NEW AGE POWER
WHY INDIA IS SO IMPORTANT? PAST 2010 PRESENT 2015 FUTURE 2018 POPULATION <800 MILLION >1.2 BILLION >1.4 BILLION 06 MIDDLE CLASS 100 M 250-300 M 400-600 M AGE GROUP 30-40 50 M 250 M 400 M YEARLY INCOME <2,000 >3,000 >5,000 S/S PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION KGS <1.5 2.1 >2.8 TOTAL STAINLESS MELT CAPACITY (KT) 3847 5867 5867 STAINLESS PRODUCTION 2.17 M 3.04 M 4.80 M
POPULATION 07 GLOBAL INVESTIGATIVE JOURNALISM NETWORK
POPULATION 08 Mc.KINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE, The RISE OF INDIA CONSUMER MARKET MAY 2007, UNITED NATION WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS MAY 2011.
POPULATION 09 FAO CORPORATE DOCUMENT REPOSITRY POPULATION PROJECTION FOR INDIA 1996-2016
10 INDIA S INFRASTRUCTURE PAST- PRESENT -FUTURE
STAINLESS CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN VARIOUS SECTORS 000 MT PROCESS INDUSTRY & POWER PAST 2010 PRESENT 2015 FUTURE 2018 113 439 571 11 ENGINEERING 58 195 244 ELECTRO MECHANICAL INDUSTRIES 17 24 RAILWAYS & TRANSPORT 23 218 30 294 COOKWARE & DURABLES 868 1259 1574 ARCHITECTURE BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION 28 152 AEROSPACE & OTHERS 46 133 205 462 TOTAL 1153 2420 3380
OPPORTUNITIES IN INDIAN INFRASTRUCTURE STRUCTURE 12 INDIA PLANS TO SPEND US$1 TRILLIONS ON INFRASTRUCTURE IN NEXT FIVE YEARS. INDIAN AIRPORTS REQUIRE INVESTMENTS WORTH US$13 BILLION IN NEXT FIVE YEARS; PRIVATE SECTOR TO CONTRIBUTE US$10 BILLION. HIGHWAYS SECTOR WILL ATTRACT INVESTMENTS WORTH US$123 BILLIONS IN NEXT 5 YEARS. US$300 BILLION PLANNED TO BE SPENT ON UPGRADING RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE (INCLUDING NEW RAIL LINES, DOUBLE.MULTIPLE LINES, HIGH-SPEED RAIL) BY 2020. AROUND $55 BILLION WORTH INVESTMENTS PLANNED IN MAJOR AND NON-MAJOR PORTS BY 2020.
ALL INDIA CONSUMPTION TREND OF SS BY GRADES % 13 2010 2015 2018 72% 1% 10% 17% 400 SERIES 300 SERIES 200 SERIES OTHERS 65% 1% 12% 22% 400 SERIES 300 SERIES 200 SERIES OTHERS 63% 1% 12% 24% 400 SERIES 300 SERIES 200 SERIES OTHERS PAST PRESENT FUTURE
BUILDINGS - PAST 14 APARTMENTS IN MUMBAI POLICE HEAD QUARTERS IN MUMBAI PARLIAMENT HOUSE DELHI APARTMENTS IN MUMBAI TAJ MAHAL - AGRA MAHARSHTRA SECRRETARIAT - MUMBAI
BUILDINGS - PRESENT 15 MOSQUE IN 2009-6000 MT REINFORCED STAINLESS STAINLESS PANELS STAINLESS INDOOR RAILINGS MILLENNIAL PROJECT STAINLESS RE- BARS STAINLESS INDOOR RAILINGS ON STAIRS STAINLESS CANOPY UB CITY MALL BANGALORE DB CITY MALL BHOPAL
BUILDINGS - FUTURE 16 FUTURISTIC OFFICE BUILDING THE BANDRA OHM RESIDENTIAL TOWER IN INDIA THE BANDRA OHM RESIDENTIAL TOWER IN INDIA FUTURISTIC DESIGN CONCEPTS SHREEPATI GARDENS DLF BUILDING, CYBER CITY GURGOAN
AIRPORTS 17 OLD MUMBAI AIRPORT CURRENT MUMBAI AIRPORT FUTURE HYDERABAD AIRPORT MUMBAI AIRPORT INDIRA GANDHI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT - DELHI FUTURE AIRPORT OF MUMBAI, DELHI, CHENNAI
RAILWAYS 18 OLD INDIAN RAILWAYS MUMBAI METRO RAILWAYS BULLET TRAIN INDIAN RAILWAYS L & T METRO RAIL - HYDERABAD FUTURE OF INDIAN RAILWAYS
RAILWAYS STATIONS 19 OLD DELHI RAILWAY STATION CURRENT DELHI METRO RAILWAY STATION FUTURE RAILWAY STATION OF NEW DELHI PAST MUMBAI RAILWAY STATION CURRENT MUMBAI METRO RAILWAY STATION L&T REALTY-SEAWOOD RAILWAY STATION NAVI MUMBAI
ROADS 20 NAVI MUMBAI ROADS IN PAST CURRENT AHMEDABAD-MUMBAI HIGHWAY ROADS WILL SHAPE INDIA S FUTURE POTHOLE ROAD IN CHENNAI IN PAST MUMBAI TO PUNE CURRENT HIGHWAY MUMBAI-DELHI-BANGALORE FUTURE HIGHWAY
INDIAN SPACE RESEARCH ORGANISATION 21 ARYABHATA SATELLITE - APRIL1975 (SOVIET LAUNCH) THE CHANDRAYAAN-1 (2008) - MOON INDIGENOUS CRYOGENIC ENGINE GSLV-D5 LAUNCH OF GSAT-14 ROHINI SATELLITE RS-1 (OCTOBER-1980) MARS ORBITER MISSION (NOVEMBER 2013) FUTURE PLAN - DEVELOPMENT OF GSLV MK III ( FOR LAUNCH OF HEAVIER SATELLITE)
INDIAN NUCLEAR POWER CAPACITY 22 35000 30000 25000 20000 30280 60 70 60 50 40 15000 10000 21 25 8680 30 20 5000 5780 10 0 PAST PRESENT FUTURE 0 TOTAL CAPACITY (MW) PLANTS
RENEWABLE ENERGY GIGA WATT 23 PAST 2010 PRESENT 2015 FUTURE 2018 WIND POWER CAPACITY 20 22 37 SOLAR POWER CAPACITY 2 4 14 BIOMASS POWER CAPACITY 1.20 1.30 4.30 BAGASSE COGENERATION 2.50 2.80 9.26 SMALL HYDRO CAPACITY 3.70 4 6.10
TRANSPORTATION PAST 24
TRANSPORTATION PRESENT 25
TRANSPORTATION FUTURE 26
12 MAJOR PORTS 27 Vizag Port - Andhra Pradesh Kandla Port Gujarat Mumbai Port Marmagao Port - Goa Chennai Port Panambur Port Karnataka Cochin Port Kerala Port Blair Andaman Haldia Port West Bengal Paradip Port - Orissa Nhava Sheva- Maharashtra Tuticorin Port Tamil Nadu
DEVELOPING MUNDRA PORT 28
UPCOMING PORTS KRISHNAPATAM PORTS 29
UPCOMING PORTS PIPAVA PORTS 30
31 VARIOUS FORMS OF NICKEL AS A RAW MATERIAL
PRIMARY NICKEL AS A RAW MATERIAL FOR STAINLESS STEEL PRODUCTION 32 FULL PLATES CATHODES CUT 4 X 4 CATHODES BRIQUETTES
FERRO NICKEL AS A RAW MATERIAL FOR STAINLESS STEEL PRODUCTION 33 GRANULES INGOTS
NICKEL AS A RAW MATERIAL FOR STAINLESS STEEL PRODUCTION 34 STAINLESS 304/316 MELTING GRADE SOLIDS HRB BALES LOOSE BRIQUETTES
NICKEL AS A RAW MATERIAL FOR STAINLESS STEEL PRODUCTION 35 STAINLESS 304/316 MELTING GRADE TURNINGS LOOSE BRIQUETTES
INDIA S IMPORT DUTY STRUCTURE 36 PAST PRIOR TO MAY 2013 PRESENT 2013-15 FUTURE 2016-18 EFFECTIVE IMPORT DUTY ON SCRAP WAS ZERO & ON FERRO NICKEL & PRIMARY NICKEL WAS 2.99% NET CURRENT EFFECTIVE IMPORT DUTY ON SCRAP, FERRO NICKEL & PRIMARY NICKEL IS SAME FOR ALL I.E. 2.99% NET IT WAS EXPECTED THAT DURING CURRENT YEAR BUDGET THE DUTY ON SCRAP WOULD BE ZERO SO HOPES ARE IN FUTURE IT WOULD BE ZERO ON ALL ITEMS
37 INDIA S IMPORT OF STAINLESS RAW MATERIALS
19% 44% 2010-12 11% TOTAL: 26,096 MT 1% AVERAGE OF IMPORTS NICKEL CATHODES - TOP 10 COUNTRIES 7% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% Russian Fed. Australia Norway Canada Finland U.K. Japan South Africa China, P.R. Singapore 17% 17% 2013-15 13% 10% TOTAL: 51,607MT 18% 10% 6% 4% 3% 2% Malaysia Singapore Russian Fed. Australia China, P.R. Norway Canada U.A.E Japan Netherlands 23% 9% 6% 2016-18 13% TOTAL: 63,804 MT 23% 9% 5% 6% 3% 3% 38 Malaysia Singapore Russian Fed. Australia China, P.R. Norway Canada U.A.E Japan Netherlands PAST PRESENT FUTURE
AVERAGE OF IMPORTS FERRO NICKEL - TOP 10 COUNTRIES 39 2010-12 2013-15 2016-18 11% 12% 7% 13% 6% 3% 1% 1% TOTAL: 12,859 MT PAST 17% 29% Japan Greece Brazil Colombia New Caledonia Macedonia Korea, Rep. Venezuela U.A.E Other 11% 16% 9% 4% 3% 1% 0.6% TOTAL: 23,567 MT 20% PRESENT 35% Japan Greece Venezuela New Caledonia Colombia Brazil Macedonia U.A.E Dominican Rep. Indonesia 11% 7% 29% 6% 2%1%1% 0.3% TOTAL: 24,971 MT FUTURE 16% 27% Japan Greece Venezuela New Caledonia Colombia Brazil Macedonia U.A.E Indonesia Dominican Rep.
AVERAGE IMPORTS OF SS SCRAP - TOP 10 COUNTRIES 40 2010-12 2013-15 2016-18 7% 8% 6% 9% 6% 5% Netherlands TOTAL: 290,474 MT 10% PAST 10% 28% 11% U.S. Malaysia U.K U.A.E Korea, Rep. Thailand Singapore South Africa Germany 7% 10% 6% 11% 5% 5% 15% Netherlands Thailand TOTAL: 479,127 MT 13% PRESENT 13% 15% Malaysia U.A.E U.K U.S Korea, Rep. Singapore Australia South Africa 7% 8% 5% 5% Netherlands 14% Thailand 7% Malaysia 11% TOTAL: 569,313 MT 13% FUTURE 14% 16% U.A.E U.K U.S Korea, Rep. Singapore Australia South Africa
41 INDIA S STAINLESS PRODUCTION
INDIA S STAINLESS MELT OUTPUT (IN KT) - OLD 3000 2470 2950 42 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1980 1,652 1557 1650 1433 1385 1389 1415 1370 1327 1321 1262 1225 384 720 349 346 944 842 143 67 95 128 158 170 239 295 569 601 124 138 215 263 359 396 450 532 495 511 543 590 692 779 915 27 31 44 44 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 OLD CrMn (200 Series) Ferritic (400 Series) Austenitic (300 Series)
43 INDIA S STAINLESS MELT OUTPUT (IN KT) 4,500 4500 4,500 4279 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500-2005 2010 2012 2470 1,433 1,389 1,262 346 239 95 396 543 692 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 3040 1,652 1,702 1557 349 384 395 779 915 942 2013 2014 2015 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500-2,443 2,201 1,808 452 513 578 1,088 1,084 1,258 2016 2017 2018 PAST PRESENT FUTURE CrMn (200 Series) Ferritic (400 Series) Austenitic (300 Series) CrMn (200 Series) Ferritic (400 Series) Austenitic (300 Series) CrMn (200 Series) Ferritic (400 Series) Austenitic (300 Series)
APPARENT NICKEL UNITS CONSUMPTION 44 114 141 * Year 2015 : First 5 month actual balance proportionated INDIA S NICKEL & STAINLESS NICKEL UNITS IN 000 PAST 2010 PRESENT 2015 FUTURE 2018 NICKEL IN SCRAP 46 68 93 44 SCRAP RATIO 73.7% 76.1% NICKEL IN SCRAP IMPORTS 20 57* 75.6% 66 PRIMARY NICKEL IMPORTS 24 61* 71 NICKEL IN FERRO IMPORTS 10 20* 27 TOTAL NICKEL UNITS IMPORT 54 138 164 PRIMARY NICKEL PRODUCED IN INDIA 2 3 5 PRIMARY NICKEL EXPORTS FROM INDIA 12 27 28
CONCLUSION 45 INDIA S S/S PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION TO GROW FROM 2.1 TO MORE THAN 2.8 KG 0.7 KG/CAPITA MEANS INCREASE OF APPROXIMATE 1 MILLION TONNES OF S/S SCRAP REQUIREMENTS IN INDIA - BOUND TO GROW WITH INCREASED SCRAP UTILIZATION RATIO Ni UNITS IMPORTS WILL GROW FROM CURRENT 138 K TO 164K BY 2018 PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF S/S IS IN PLACE. SAME PRODUCERS ARE CURRENTLY PRODUCING STEEL INSTEAD OF STAINLESS INDIA S INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE COMING YEARS WILL PROPEL STAINLESS STEEL DEMAND STAINLESS RAW MATERIALS WILL REMAIN ESSENTIAL IMPORT COMMODITIES FOR GROWING INDIAN MARKET
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