A NEW PARADIGM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION Dr. Graeme Sweeney Executive Vice President CO2 10 th October 2011 1 DISCLAIMER STATEMENT The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly or indirectly owns investments are separate entities. In this presentation the expressions Shell, Group and Shell Group are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Group companies in general. Likewise the words we, us and our are also used to refer to Group companies in general or those who work for them. The expressions are also used where there is no purpose in identifying specific companies. The information contained in this presentation contains forward-looking statements, that are subject to risk factors which may affect the outcome of the matters covered. None of Shell International B.V., any other Shell company and their respective officers, employees and agents represents the accuracy or completeness of the information set forth in this presentation and none of the foregoing shall be liable for any loss, cost, expense or damage (whether arising from negligence or otherwise) relating to the use of such information. All copyright and other (intellectual property) rights in all text, images and other information contained in this presentation are the property of Shell International B.V. or other Shell companies. Permission should be sought from Shell International B.V. before any part of this presentation is reproduced, stored or transmitted by any means. 2
WORLD DEMAND FOR ENERGY IS GROWING FAST 17 October 2011 3 MORE REALISM IS NEEDED Fossil fuels will provide most of our energy in the coming decades. Economic pressures should drive CO2 mitigation solutions which are fast, workable and value for money. Global energy production, mtoe. 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydro electricity Other Renewables Nuclear Overall Total 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Data: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 17 October 2011 4
MOVING TO A LOWER CARBON WORLD In an ideal world, global carbon market mechanisms drive the transition towards a lower carbon economy. In an imperfect world we still need to take action. 17 October 2011 5 NEED FOR OUTCOME BASED POLICIES A global agreement on a well organised, well funded and quickly implemented action plan remains far away. Hope and enthusiasm are not enough. The UNFCCC will continue to play an important role. 17 October 2011 6
DELIVERING CLIMATE ACTION Working together reduces costs and accelerates progress to mitigate CO2 emissions. More technology platforms are required and these need to be well connected. The focus must be on doing the doable today. 17 October 2011 7 NATURAL GAS FOR ELECTRICITY One third of energy CO2 emissions come from electricity generation Replacing coal-fired power with natural gas will cut greenhouse gas emissions now Together with carbon capture and storage (CCS), natural gas can play a significant role in the low CO2 energy system beyond 2030 Natural gas will complement the intermittency of 17 October 2011 8
CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE CCS is the only way to cut CO2 from large-scale fossil fuel use and could account for 19% of the CO2 reductions needed by 2050 Prompt deployment of demonstration projects is essential Without CCS the cost of meeting CO2 emissions targets could be 70% higher Government support will be needed to help industry build experience, share knowledge Copyright and of Royal reduce Dutch Shell Plc costs 17 October 2011 9 BIOFUELS FOR ROAD TRANSPORT 17 October 2011 10
SUPPORTIVE POLICIES ENABLE PROGRESS A patchwork of regional, national and local policies is emerging. Policies must be outcome based. Existing frameworks and institutions need to be maintained and have their applicability extended. A reformed CDM will support carbon markets by taking a more programmatic approach and including value for the NAMA crediting process. 17 October 2011 11 CONCLUSION We need more realism in tackling climate change. The focus must be on doing the doable today. We must move away from process discussions and focus on action. Fragmented policy initiatives need to be linked together. A collaborative approach will be faster and lower cost. We need to support market based mechanisms such as the CDM And ETS. 17 October 2011 12