Government of Newfoundland Labrador Canada-NL Labour Market Development Agreement (LMDA) Annual Plan 2013-2014
Purpose This annual plan defines the priorities, objectives and program and service investments under the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Labour Market Development Agreement (CA-NL LMDA), for the 2013-14, fiscal year. Programs and services offered under the CA-NL LMDA in 2013-14 are designed to: Increase participation and labour force attachment among unemployed and low-skilled employed individuals; Enhance recruitment, retention and development of a skilled workforce to improve competitiveness; Strengthen human resource development and planning capacity among employers and partners; Assist individuals impacted by the recent economic downturn in accessing supports they need to successfully transition into new jobs, occupations and industries; and, Support employers and communities in responding to downward industry adjustments and emerging opportunities. These programs and services will build on existing provincial resources, supports and strategic directions to increase access to a comprehensive, integrated and effective suite of labour market and training programs that will: Assist to improve employment and training outcomes for individuals; Increase access to the skilled, innovative workforce required to meet current and future labour demands; and Assist to ensure Newfoundlanders and Labradorians have full opportunity to participate in, and contribute to, a prosperous economy and society. Planning Process The 2013-14 Labour Market Development Agreement (LMDA) annual planning process was informed by an environmental scan, LMDA program outcomes in previous years, and consultations with partners as described in Appendix A: Consultation Processes. Environmental Scan: Between 2011 and 2012, the provincial labour force increased 2.1 per cent to 263,300, and employment increased 2.3 per cent to 230,500 (with a corresponding increase in participation rate and employment rate to 61.6 per cent and 53.9 per cent, respectively). In 2012, Newfoundland and Labrador ranked first in the country for year-over-year labour force growth and second for employment growth. The number of unemployed people remained relatively constant between 2011 and 2012 (only a slight increase from 32,700 to 32,800). The 2012 unemployment rate of 12.5 per cent; however, represents the lowest annual unemployment rate since Statistics Canada began recording data for the province in 1976. 1 According to the latest forecasts from the Department of Finance (March 2013), employment in this province is expected to increase by 2.8 per cent in 2013. Newfoundland and Labrador Labour Market Outlook 2020 (released by the Department of Advanced Education and Skills in 1 Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada (CANSIM) 2
2011) projects that employment will grow by 8.2 per cent to reach a peak of 302,173 people in 2015, followed by a decline of 5.1 per cent from 2016 to 2020. The peak employment in 2015 reflects the impacts of major project developments while subsequent losses are the result of these projects ramping down after construction. Overall, it is projected that there will be net employment growth of 2.8 per cent (or 7,700 new jobs) in the ten-year period between 2010 and 2020. New job growth only presents a partial picture of future job opportunities in the province. It will be retirements that present the greatest employment opportunities in the years ahead. Outlook 2020 projects that almost 90 per cent of all job openings in Newfoundland and Labrador between 2011 and 2020 will result from attrition (approximately 62,000). Outlook 2020, for example, projects that 66.7 per cent of all job openings between 2011 and 2020 will be in management occupations or will require some form of post-secondary education. The Department of Finance s 2013 Economy in March of this year forecasts the following: Real GDP growth of 6.8 per cent Personal income growth of 7.3 per cent Disposable income growth of 7.1 per cent Retail sales growth of 4.2 per cent Population growth of 0.3 per cent (mainly due to positive net migration) Capital investment growth of 17.4 per cent (to $11.8 billion) Housing starts decrease (from 3,885 in 2012 to 3,520 in 2013) Growth in value of mineral shipments by 23 per cent (to $4.7 billion) Provincial Labour Market Challenges Labour Shortages The provincial working-age population (15-64 years old) is projected to decline by 13.0 per cent (over 46,000 people) between 2012 and 2026. Furthermore, by 2026, there will potentially be five new labour force entrants (15-24 years old) for every eight potential retirees (55-64 years old), and almost 1/3 of the provincial population will be 60 years old or older. 2 Historical inter-provincial migration and immigration trends are additional significant factors impacting population in Newfoundland and Labrador. In particular: The province has traditionally had a high rate of interprovincial out-migration, especially among youth. Over the past 20 years, the province has experienced a net loss of over 73,000 people; 80 per cent of these interprovincial out-migrants have been young people 15 to 29 years old. There have been demonstrated increases in the number of immigrants moving to the province. The province has experienced successes with respect to the retention of newcomers nominated under its Provincial Nominee Program (PNP): o In 2012, 751 newcomers settled in Newfoundland and Labrador, an increase of 39 per cent from the number of newcomers settling in 2 Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada (CANSIM) 3
Newfoundland and Labrador in 2007, the year the Provincial Immigration Strategy was launched. Of these newcomers, 365 individuals immigrated via the PNP, an increase of 445 per cent since 2007 when 67 individuals immigrated via the PNP. o A 2010 survey of Provincial Nominees who received their permanent residency prior to September 30, 2010 indicated that 81per cent remained in the province. Increasing Skills and Changing Job Demands A rapidly changing and increasingly competitive global marketplace, combined with the rapid pace of technological advancement, will continue to increase skill demands and contribute to changing job duties in the near to medium-term. It is projected that over 65 per cent of all new jobs will require some form of post-secondary education (Outlook 2020, Department of Advanced Education and Skills). 3 Labour Force Adjustments Newfoundland and Labrador has a relatively higher dependency on traditional, primary resource-based industries. Over the past decade, several of these industries including forestry and fishery, have undergone significant adjustments in order to compete within an increasingly global marketplace. Compared to the rest of Canada, Newfoundland and Labrador has: Among the highest proportion of its labour force living in rural areas of the province (47 per cent versus 16 per cent in Canada) Among the highest proportion of seasonal/part-year workers in the country who tend to be older and have lower levels of formal education than the provincial workforce overall; and, Correspondingly lower average participation rates in rural regions. Limited Human Resource Planning Capacity Among Employers Most of the province s businesses consist of small employers - those with fewer than 100 employees comprise 98 per cent of all employers in the province. These employers are dispersed throughout the province, and many are currently experiencing labour and skill shortages, skills gaps and workforce recruitment/retention challenges. Yet these firms often have limited human resource capacity, especially in the area of workforce-workplace training that limits their ability to address these concerns and subsequently their capacity to find, keep and develop the skilled workers they need to increase productivity and maintain competitiveness. 3 Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada (CANSIM) 4
Under-Represented Groups Newfoundland and Labrador has a high proportion of under-represented or under-utilized workers. Many of these workers - including women, Aboriginal people, persons with disabilities, displaced workers, low-skilled workers, immigrants and older workers - often face employment barriers that limit their full participation. Other workers, including new graduates and apprentices, can face significant challenges (result of high student debt loads) establishing their first attachment to the labour market that they need to acquire further experience and certification. Together, these groups constitute a valuable but often untapped source of skilled labour. Investment Priorities Provincial investment priorities for the Newfoundland and Labrador Benefits and Measures for the fiscal year include: 1) Maintaining Quality Services: The province will work toward ensuring quality services for clients accessing Newfoundland and Labrador Benefits and Measures. This includes meeting and maintaining 2013-14 commitments levels to clients and organizations and setting targets. 2) Aligning Current Funding with Provincial Priorities: The province will work toward ensuring Labour Market Development Agreement (LMDA) investments complement, strengthen and are integrated with provincial labour market priorities and programs and services for fiscal year 2013-14. This includes initiatives such as the Apprenticeship Wage Subsidy program, which provides enhanced supports and services for apprentices and the employers who hire them; the provision of supports for employers to meet human resource requirements, for example wage subsidies and workplace training; and the provision of supports to older workers to increase participation in the labour force, including training and work experience opportunities. 3) Strengthening regional and local labour market development: The province will continue to work with partners and stakeholders at the regional and local levels to support and strengthen labour market development planning throughout the province. Newfoundland and Labrador Benefits and Measures During fiscal year 2013-14, Newfoundland and Labrador will deliver the following Employment Benefits and Support Measures: Newfoundland and Labrador Wage Subsidies: Newfoundland and Labrador will provide funding to employers to encourage them to hire EI clients whom they would not normally hire in the absence of a subsidy. This will include the continuation of enhanced supports and services to encourage employers to hire first and 5
second year apprentices. Newfoundland and Labrador may also provide related employment supports to eligible individuals, including tools, equipment and short-term training. Newfoundland and Labrador Job Creation Partnerships: Newfoundland and Labrador will provide financial support, in partnership with employers and/or community organizations, to projects that provide EI clients with work experience and skills to achieve ongoing labour market attachment. Newfoundland and Labrador Self-Employment Assistance: Newfoundland and Labrador will assist EI clients in establishing their own businesses and becoming self-employed by providing self-employment services, such as entrepreneurship training, customized coaching, and ongoing advice and client supports. Newfoundland and Labrador Skills Development: Newfoundland and Labrador will provide a benefit for the education and training of EI clients so they can obtain the skills necessary for employment. Under this benefit, EI clients will be expected to share the cost of training where appropriate. This benefit will include the costs ordinarily paid by Newfoundland and Labrador over and above the amounts recovered through tuition fees, with respect to each EI client receiving financial assistance under Newfoundland and Labrador Skills Development and attending a publicly funded training institution. Newfoundland and Labrador Employment Assistance Services: Employment Assistance Services will be provided to help clients obtain employment. Services may include needs determination, employment counseling, job search training, and provision of labour market information. Employment Assistance Services will be available to unemployed persons and job seekers. Newfoundland and Labrador Labour Market Partnerships: Newfoundland and Labrador will provide funding to support employers, employer or employee associations, community groups and communities in developing and implementing labour market strategies and activities for dealing with labour force adjustments and meeting human resource requirements. Labour Market Partnerships may be used to provide assistance for employed persons who are facing loss of employment. 6
Financial Investment Levels for Employment Benefits and Support Measures in Newfoundland and Labrador for 2013-14 Benefits and Measures Planned Investment 2013-14 Skills Development $90,272,046 Labour Market Partnerships $8,000,000 Wage Subsidies $10,620,000 Self-Employment Assistance $4,800,000 Job Creation Partnerships $7,000,000 Employment Assistance Services $6,000,000 Other (WHSCC, Third Party, etc.) $2,436,746 Total $129,128,792 7
2013-2014 Canada/Newfoundland and Labrador LMDA Annual Annex 1.0 Targets and Target Setting for Newfoundland and Labrador Benefits and Measures In 2013-2014 NL has set the following targets: Results Indicator Targets for Fiscal Year 2013-14 (a) The number of active EI claimants who have accessed benefits and measures (b) The number of EI clients who have returned to employment (c) Savings to the Employment Insurance Account 9,600 5,740 $24,250,000 2.0 Funding Projection Canada s annual allocations for contributions towards the costs of the Newfoundland and Labrador Benefits and Measures for 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 have been as follows: $146,012,000 for 2010-11 $131,944,000 for 2011-12 $130,405,000 for 2012-13 Canada makes advance payments of its annual contribution towards the cost of Newfoundland and Labrador Benefits and Measures, as per section 16 of the LMDA. The advances are made on a monthly basis and will be based upon a forecast of cash flow requirements furnished by Newfoundland and Labrador. The three-year projection of Canada s annual allocations for contributions towards the costs of the Newfoundland and Labrador Benefits and Measures are as follows: Fiscal Year Projection 2013-14 $129,219,000 2014-15 $127,979,000* 8
2015-16 $126,945,008* * These notional allocations are as per the letter from Senior Assistance Deputy Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, Frank Vermaeten, to then Advanced Education and Skills Deputy Minister, Darrin Pike, received on November 28, 2012. 9