2 Population and Land Use Population and land use information was utilized to analyze existing wastewater flows and to estimate future flows. The population and land use data were obtained from the following: United States Census Bureau San Bernardino Associated Governments (SANBAG) San Bernardino County County of San Bernardino City of Highland Additional details on land use and population projections are included in Appendix B. 2.1 LAND USE The District is comprised of the City of Highland, unincorporated areas of San Bernardino County, and portions of the City of San Bernardino. Existing land use information was provided by SANBAG. Future land use was developed from information provided by: SANBAG, City of San Bernardino Planning Division (including the 2005 San Bernardino General Plan and 2012 General Plan Update), and the City of Highland Planning Division (including the 2006 General Plan, Harmony Specific Plan, Greenspot Village & Market Place Specific Plan, and known development projects). Figure 2-1 shows existing land use in the District and the locations of the major planned developments. 2.2 POPULATION Population data, both existing and projected, was obtained primarily from the 2008 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) and SANBAG s associated Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) data. The RTP is a 25-year plan that provides population projections through 2035. 2.2.1 Existing Population and Large Users As a result of the economic downturn and subsequent stagnant growth from 2008 to 2012, it was assumed that the existing population in 2008 is equivalent to the 2012 population. The existing population projections in the District were estimated using TAZ data, which provided population by class including single-family residential, multi-family residential, retail employment, non-retail employment, and students. The TAZ boundaries were then overlaid with the District Boundary. Where the TAZ boundary extended beyond the District boundary, the TAZ boundary population was decreased to match the percent of land within the District (for example, if 90 percent of a TAZ was located within District boundaries it was assumed that 90 percent of the population of the TAZ was served by the District). Figure 2-2 shows the existing population provided by class. BLACK & VEATCH Population and Land Use 2-1
Wastewater Collection System Master Plan LEGEND Collection System Modeled Collection System East Trunk Sewer Planned Developments Existing Land Use Single Family Multi-Family Commercial Industrial Institutional School Open Space Agriculture ROW Vacant SBWRP District Boundary City of Highland City of San Bernardino 0 Feet 5,500 1 inch = 5,500 feet Figure 2-1 Land Use & Major Developments Figure2_1 April 12, 2013
23,600 1,800 19,400 93,500 Non- Student Total ial Population = 93,500 Total Non-ial Population = 44,800 Figure 2-2 Existing 2012 Population by Class The residential population provided by the SANBAG TAZ data was compared to the District s billing database as well as 2010 Census data. Dwelling unit data in the District s billing database seems to confirm the existing population with a population density roughly between 3 and 3.5 persons per household. Both the District s billing database and Census data verify the TAZ population projections for the District s service area. 2.2.2 Evaluation of Large Water and Wastewater Use Customers Customers who use large quantities of water or wastewater warrant a separate analysis to determine whether they are contributing significant flows to the sewer. This typically occurs with industrial customers who use large quantities of water for processing. A list of large water and wastewater users was obtained from the District and their usage was compared with the projected flows estimated from population. This analysis indicated that there were no users contributing a disproportionate amount into the system so flows were not point loaded for these customers. The customers reviewed are listed in Table 2-1 and Table 2-2. BLACK & VEATCH Population and Land Use 2-3
Table 2-1 Top Water Customers CUSTOMER NAME San Bernardino County Unified School District (SBCUSD) AVERAGE DAILY WATER DEMAND (gpd) 6,097 Patton State Hospital 5,093 San Manuel Mission Indians 2,737 San Manuel Bingo & Casino 1,986 Stubblefield Construction 1,458 Valencia LEA Mobile Home Park 1,178 East Highland Ranch 1,053 City of Highland 871 Lynwood Owners Association 817 gpd gallons per day Top customer list provided by District and based on revenue Table 2-2 Top Wastewater Customers CUSTOMER NAME AVERAGE DAILY WASTEWATER FLOW (gpd) San Manuel Mission Indians 2,737 SBCUSD 2,624 San Manuel Bingo & Casino 1,795 Stubblefield Construction 1,458 Valencia LEA Mobile Home Park 1,023 Victoria Village Apartments 826 Sunset Ridge Apartments 767 CS Aventerra LP 743 Highland Palms Homeowners 719 Village Lakes Homeowners Association 691 gpd gallons per day Top customer list provided by District and based on revenue 2.2.3 Future Population Projections Future population projections were made based on the projected growth by TAZ in the RTP, which includes about 1,020 new residents per year (assuming straight-line growth). The information from the RTP was supplemented with development information from the City of Highland in the form of the Highland Housing Activity September 2012 Map, as well as other specific development information including specific plans and sewer studies. Potential population projections were calculated for each of the identified planned developments based on available land use and/or dwelling unit information. The potential populations for each planned development were then compared to the growth projected in the RTP. Many of the planned developments are smaller, and BLACK & VEATCH Population and Land Use 2-4
it appears that the additional population is accounted for in the RTP projections; however, the potential population growth calculated for the four largest developments appears to be significantly higher than that projected in the RTP. To be conservative in future flow estimates, the larger population was assumed for this Master Plan. These developments are shown on Figure 2-1 and the adjusted population is summarized in Table 2-3. Table 2-3 Planned Developments Projected Populations Harmony DEVELOPMENT CUSTOMER TYPE Non- Student RTP POPULATION PROJECTIONS 6,341 146 759 627 ADJUSTED POPULATION PROJECTIONS 17,838 434 868 830 Arnott Ranch 265 1,050 Highland Hills Ranch 1,759 5,851 Greenspot Village and Marketplace 500 303 2,750 4,500 Note: In general, adjusted population projections were calculated based on available dwelling unit estimates, and assuming a population density of 3.5 persons per household. For the Harmony development, more specific land use data was available. Adjusted population projections for the Harmony development are based on the land use details described in the Draft Harmony Specific Plan (2012). The maximum allowable dwelling unit densities per acre of land use were assumed, as well as a population density of 3.5 persons per dwelling unit. The adjusted population projections estimate that the total residential population for the four largest planned developments is approximately 27,500, while the RTP projections estimate a total residential population of approximately 8,900 for these same areas. Likewise, the adjusted population projections estimate that the total non-residential population for the four largest planned developments is approximately 6,600, while the RTP projections estimate a total nonresidential population of approximately 1,800 for the same areas. Again, to be conservative in future flow estimates, the larger populations were assumed for this Master Plan. Figure 2-3 summarizes the 2035 total population projections as provided by the RTP versus the adjusted population projections accounting for the higher growth rates in the larger developments listed in Table 2-3. BLACK & VEATCH Population and Land Use 2-5
RTP 2035 Projections Adjusted 2035 Projections 30,051 30,254 5,016 26,504 132,033 Non- Student 9,501 26,613 150,657 Total ial Population = 132,033 Total Non-ial Population = 61,571 Total ial Population = 150,657 Total Non-ial Population = 66,368 Figure 2-3 Projected 2035 Population by Customer Type Note: The adjusted projections include the maximum potential densities for Harmony identified in the Draft Harmony Specific Plan. Based on the two population models, four growth scenarios, shown in Figure 2-4, were evaluated to bracket potential growth. These scenarios include: RTP. The original projected growth from the RTP with a 2035 residential population of 132,000. This is based on an annual growth of 1,426 persons per year. Delayed RTP. Assumes that no growth has occurred in the last 5 years, and the recovery will occur at approximately the same rate of 1,426 people per year, as originally anticipated in the RTP. This projection has a 2035 population of 126,300. Adjusted RTP. Assumes that no growth has occurred in the last 5 years, but that the recovery will include rapid growth and the adjusted projections will be met by 2035. This projection will include a growth rate of approximately 2,490 residents per year with a 2035 population of 150,700. Aggressive. Assumes that no growth has occurred in the last 5 years. It further assumes that the specific development areas will be built out in the next 5 years, by 2017. From 2017 to 2035, it assumes that the remaining growth projected in the RTP will be occurring. This projection has a growth rate of 5,160 people per year from 2012 to 2017, and a growth rate of 1,740 people per year through 2035. This results in a 2035 projected population of 150,700. BLACK & VEATCH Population and Land Use 2-6
160,000 150,000 140,000 150,700 Aggressive Adjusted RTP 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 RTP Delayed RTP 132,000 126,300 90,000 93,500 80,000 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 Figure 2-4 ial Population Projections In order to position the District to address growth-related capacity issues, the aggressive growth projections were used for the hydraulic modeling. Recommended capacity improvements will be tied to specific development areas or other triggers, so that the District can adjust the timing of capital improvements based on actual growth. In 2012, the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) finalized its 2012-2035 Regional Transportation Plan (RTP Update). The RTP Update is a long-range regional transportation plan that provides a blueprint to help achieve a coordinated and balanced regional transportation system in the SCAG region. The SCAG region is comprised of six counties: Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura. Currently, SANBAG is updating its population projections based on the RTP Update, with expected completion in 2014. Based on the regional population trends presented in the RTP Update, it is expected that SANBAG s 2014 population projections will not differ significantly from those presented in the RTP utilized in this Master Plan. BLACK & VEATCH Population and Land Use 2-7