Labour Market Information (2015-2024) Engineers, Geoscientists, Technologists and Technicians in B.C. As part of its Labour Market Information Project, the Asia Pacific Gateway Skills Table provides in-depth and regional forecasting for 31 key Engineer, Geoscientist, Technologist and Technician occupations in B.C. The 10-year outlook (2015 to 2024) presents labour demand/supply scenarios for these skilled workers, who are both the current efficient functioning and future growth of the B.C. economy. Three investment scenarios, based on varying economic conditions, were evaluated to generate our data: low, moderate and high. Overall, we forecast economic activity in B.C. to be generally positive, and our modelling shows minimal impact on labour market trends between these three scenarios. The high investment scenario will generate only 785 more job openings than the low investment scenario (a 2.5 per cent variation). This overview focuses on the moderate scenario. Overview Engineers, Geoscientists, Technologists and Technicians apply scientific knowledge to solve problems in sectors from manufacturing to construction to information technology. As the professionals tasked with applying science to solve concrete business problems, they are directly linked with the province s innovation, economic productivity and growth. This forecast shows B.C. faces a considerable demand for new Engineers, Geoscientists, Technologists and Technicians over the next 10 years. We forecast a net of 11,555 new, additional jobs by 2024 among the 31 occupations. With the addition of retirement, 31,150 job openings will need to be filled over the 10 years of the forecast. From 2015 to 2019, labour market expansion will drive job openings. However, over the course of the 10- year period, retirement will account for the majority of job openings, with one quarter of workers today expected to retire and leave the labour market in the next decade. We anticipate the rate of supply lagging job openings throughout the entire 10-year outlook up to 10 per cent in the first five years. Although attrition continues to be the primary driver of job openings, its impact has declined from previous forecasts. This decline is attributed to two things: more workers are remaining in the workforce after the age of 65; and the impact of the baby boom generation moving out of the workforce is lessening as many have already left the workforce. To meet demand, B.C. industries and employers will have to rely on more challenging supply channels than simply recruiting experienced workers. We forecast a heavier reliance on New Entrants (newly trained and new to the labour workforce) and Immigration (workers from other countries) to meet demand, rather than more convenient uptakes through Inter-professional (experienced Canadian workers moving into a new occupation) and Inter-provincial (experienced workers from out of province) hiring. What is clear from the data is that without direct and sustained action, the Asia Pacific Gateway will face a range of labour market challenges over the next 10 years. The Asia Pacific Gateway Skills Table wishes to acknowledge the funding support from the Government of Canada s Sectoral Initiatives Program. The opinions and interpretations in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Canada. We gratefully acknowledge the financial support of the Province of British Columbia through the Ministry of Jobs, Tourism and Skills Training. Additional 2015 EGTT LMI Products Industry Outlooks Regional Outlooks Occupational Snapshots APGST LMI Forecast Backgrounder More information can be found at www.lmionline.ca or contact the Skills Table at info@apgst.ca or 604.684.1471. Page 1 of 5
Demand In the first five years, anticipated labour market expansion will account for more than half of job openings before the pace of anticipated economic growth slows. Over the course of the 10-year period, attrition will account for 57 per cent of job openings. The growth rate in the number of replacement jobs is expected to decrease from 4.6 per cent in 2015 to 1.3 per cent in 2024, showing the impact of the retiring workforce, while still growing, is now slowing. The demand in forecasted numbers for Civil Engineers and related Technologists and Technicians is very similar. Despite similar occupation titles, there should not be any implied pairing or clear ratio between types of Engineers, and Technologists and Technicians. For instance, Technologists and Technicians undertaking civil work will be spread across more occupational categories than just Civil Engineering Technologists and Technicians, including drafting, architectural and other categories, as well. By numbers, Civil Engineers have the most job openings (4,060, 13 per cent) and net new positions (1,629, 14.1 per cent). Geological Engineers and Architectural Technologists and Technicians are the occupations with the fastest growth rate (24 per cent), owing to expansion. Region Average Annual Jobs Demand and Job Openings for EGTT Total Job Openings 2015-2019 Total Job Openings 2020-2024 Jobs Created by Expansion 2015-2019 Jobs Created by Expansion 2020-2024 British Columbia 79,987 18,398 12,749 10,019 3,221 Lower Mainland 61,466 15,038 10.239 8,894 3,058 North 2,608 344 291 85 4 Southeast 7,356 1,427 1,013 537 71 Vancouver Island Coast 8,556 1,568 1,216 493 88 Jobs Created by Attrition Region 2015-2019 2020-2024 % of Total Job Openings 2015-2024 British Columbia 8,379 9,528 57.49% Lower Mainland 6,144 7,181 52.72% North 259 287 85.98% Southeast 890 942 75.08% Vancouver Island Coast 1,075 1,128 79.13% Page 2 of 5
Supply Labour supply in B.C. is expected to grow by 10,720 workers in the selected occupations over the 10-year forecast. During the first five years, supply will lag job openings by more than 10 per cent owing to expansion, making recruitment increasingly challenging. In particular, 2018 to 2019 will see widespread shortages in regions outside the Lower Mainland, with Northern and Southeast B.C. the most heavily affected. The supply lag is expected to decrease to two per cent by 2024. Integration will be paramount as New Entrants and Immigration will be relied on to meet more than 90 per cent of supply requirements, rather than experienced Canadian workers through Inter-provincial and Inter-professional channels. Region Average Number of Qualified Workers New Entrants Immigration Inter-provincial (BC) & Interregional Inter-professional British Columbia 83,177 15,812 12,059 393 2,186 Lower Mainland 63,976 12,047 11,887-1,278 2,046 North 2,702 569-1 37-3 Southeast 7.601 1,531 62 792-16 Vancouver Island Coast 8,897 1,653 66 819 165 New Entrants Overall, more than half (52 per cent) of the new supply in these occupations will come from New Entrants. However, New Entrants will make up 95 per cent of the new supply in Northern B.C. and two-thirds in other regions. Software Engineers and Designers has the highest total number of New Entrants (2,631, 64 per cent). Immigration Just over 40 per cent of new workers will be immigrants to Canada. Civil Engineers will have the highest reliance on Immigration by numbers (1,800, 46 per cent) while Engineering Inspectors and Regulatory Officers will have the highest percentage (277, 55 per cent). Immigration is predominantly a supply channel for the Lower Mainland (48 per cent of new workers). Northern B.C. (zero per cent), Southeast B.C. (three per cent) and the Vancouver Island Coast (two per cent) regions will have very little of their new supply from other countries. Inter-provincial Overall, a net inflow of one per cent of new workers will move to B.C. from other provinces over the 10-year period. The Lower Mainland is a net exporter (five per cent) of workers to other regions among the 31 occupations, and inflow from other regions and provinces adds a significant percentage of new workers in the Southeast (33 per cent) and Vancouver Island Coast (30 per cent) regions. There is also a wide variance among occupations: Technical Occupations in Geomatics and Meteorology will rely on Interprovincial mobility for 17 per cent of their new supply, while Petroleum Engineers will export 15 per cent of new supply to other provinces. Provincial migration trends are affected positively by the economic conditions in Alberta, which has been taken into account in this forecast. Page 3 of 5
Inter-professional Only seven per cent of new workers will be experienced professionals who move into the 31 occupations from other occupations. Among regions, there is a variance from the Southeast (-1 per cent) and Northern (0 per cent) regions to the Lower Mainland (8 per cent). Among occupations, 90 per cent of new workers will be from other occupations for managerial occupations like Engineering Managers and Supervisors, Petroleum, Gas and Chemical Processing and Utilities. Labour Force Supply Data below is presented as base case and is from the moderate scenario. Considerations Page 4 of 5
Integration is a key theme for industries who rely on Engineers, Geoscientists, Technologists and Technicians, as new supply will be driven by New Entrants and workers coming from other countries. The high reliance on Immigration to meet new supply needs creates risk for employers, as the levers that control the flow of Immigration are not in their control. Strategies and programs should be undertaken to manage the needed growth in the first five years from expansion. These could include retaining mature workers, and offering job sharing, flexible working conditions, and some form of contracting in times of fast but temporary growth. Focus should be on retention: keep workers working for you and help them stay in B.C. In a tight labour market, managing succession and building comprehensive succession plans and experienced worker retention programs can be central tools for expanding and maintaining a workforce. Develop strong mature workforce recruitment and retention programs. Review hiring and job requirements with a view of transferability from other occupations and other sectors. Page 5 of 5