PNC 2011, 19-21 October 2011, Bangkok Climate Change and Urban Flood Management A/Prof Zoran Vojinovic UNESCO-IHE Delft, The Netherlands
Institute for Postgraduate Education, Training and Capacity Building in Water, Environment and Infrastructure
UNESCO-IHE Since 1955 160 Staff (80 Academic, 80 Support) 300 Guest Faculty 4 Water and Environment Academic Programmes: - 220 MSc participants ) From about 80 different countries - 100 PhD fellows ) - 250 Short Course Participants R&D: 170 Publications / year
Connecting the Community of UNESCO-IHE Community 14,000 Alumni 0-50 51-150 151-300 301-500 501-850 851-1200
Climate Change and Urban Flood Management
Is Climate Change the biggest threat to Sustainable Urban Flood Management?
Urban Flooding an overwhelming flow of water on urban area that is normally dry and which under certain circumstances can cause unprecedented losses and devastation.
What kinds of floods can be experienced?
What are the root causes of floods?
Root causes of floods Hydrological processes, and Climatological effects. Nature (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
Hydrological processes
Climate Change a significant change in the distribution of weather patterns over long periods.
Causes of Climate Change ( climate forcings or forcing mechanisms ) Increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, Changes in solar radiation, Volcanic eruptions, and Variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.
The major greenhouse gases Water vapor, Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), Methane (CH 4 ), and Ozone (O 3 ).
The major sources of Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Burning of fossil fuel, Deforestation, and Urbanisation.
Greenhouse gas effects
Build up of energy and warming of the atmosphere! Global warming - increase in temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans. Greenhouse gas effects
CO 2 Concentration Change in CO 2 Concentrations Projected 2100 700 650 Ice Ages 600 550 500 450 Current 400 350 300 250 200 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 150 Years Before Present
Impacts Bangkok, Hurricane Katrina, 16th August October 2005 2011 Drought in Africa, June 2011
Root causes of floods Nature (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
Root causes of floods Technology Nature (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
Technical root causes System related
Root causes of floods Technology Nature (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
Social root causes Historical and cultural, Urbanisation and population growth, Organisational, financial Regulatory, Legal, etc. Society Technology Nature (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
(million) 12000 世界 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 7,000+ members in over 120 countries Professions: Science & research, utilities, consultants, regulators, manufacturers Scope > All aspects of water management -> water and wastewater 0 BC400 Leading Edge of science and practice BC200 AD1 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200
Billions 10 9 8 7 6 5 Population Growth Approaching figure of 80% of world s population lives in urban areas!!! 4 3 Less Developed Regions 2 1 More Developed Regions 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
Development of World Cities 1950 World Cities exceeding 5 million residents Data source: U.N. Population Division
Development of World Cities 2000 World Cities exceeding 5 million residents Data source: U.N. Population Division
Development of World Cities 2015 World Cities exceeding 5 million residents Data source: U.N. Population Division
Rapid population growth means Rapid urbanisation More flooding and pollution Shrinking of agricultural sector Increase in poverty and slum areas Increase in crime (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
Piecemeal organisational approach in the water sector
Piecemeal approach between sectors Water sector Land use planning Transport and communication Forestry Other services (e.g., gas, electricity, etc.) (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
Impacts of piecemeal insitutional and organisational approach Ineffective decisions and poor planning practices, potential for even greater disasters;
Undeveloped Area Developed Area Q Q t t
Social root causes Society Technology Nature (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
Causes related to human mind Decisions Society Technology Nature (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
How can humans make wrong decisions? Unintentionally: incompetence, inability to distinguish right from wrong, unawareness, etc. Intentionally: wrong values (e.g., money, power) and priorities, ignorance, selfishness, etc. (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
Causes of flood risk Decisions Society Technology Nature (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
The nature of urban flood risk Dynamic: In time (throughout short and long periods of time), In space (from one place to another), In form (primary residual technological institutional legal ) Invisible (we don t see it until we experience it) In most cases it is impossible to be completely eliminated It is a function of many variables (often grouped into two: hazard and vulnerability) (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
Storm Hazard Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) 41
Vulnerability the state of being prone to or susceptible to harm 42
Types of Vulnerability Physical Economic Environmental Social largely based on qualities (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
So, how should we then address flooding and flood risk...
Conventional approach: Technocratic practice (technology/science driven, does not reflect social aspects) Materialistic (places material means in the center of focus) Considers economics and probability as central aspects of risk analysis Piecemeal The Way Forward? Space Matter Time
Risk Assessment Methodologis Quantitative, numerable, scientific, value-free!!!! RISK = Probability x Consequence, if 0.5 <RISK<1 then RISK = Low Standards for flood protection are based on cost-benefit analysis!!!! Lack of qualitative aspects: perceptions, social and cultural values, ethics, etc. What is socially acceptable (or socially just) standard of flood protection?
The need for Paradigm Shift New paradigm: Sociotechnical praxis Human oriented (places humans in the center of focus) Considers ethics and social justice as central aspects of risk analysis Holistic Space Qualities Matter Time From cost-effective to socially-acceptable!
Addressing natural root causes Reduction in GHG Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
Addressing technical root causes Adaptable systems (flexible and modular structures, multipurpose systems, designing for exceedance, RTC, etc.) Consideration of all types of floods Greater synergies in developments as well as implementation Joint solutions with other water authorities as well as other sectors Sociotechnical frameworks (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
Multipurpose system
Designing for exceedance
Addressing social root causes Holistic and long-term planning Organisational Institutional Financial Legal Active stakeholder participation, empowerment, awareness, education, etc. Social justice (fairness, maximising welfare, equality, promoting virtue) (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
Addressing root causes related to human mind Holistic thinking and capacity building Greater awareness Change of attitudes Change of values Combining perceptive and analytical thinking Ethics Responsive to social needs and concerns (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
Is Climate Change the biggest threat to Sustainable Urban Flood Management?
I don t think so
The Starting Point! Decisions Society Technology Nature (Vojinovic and Abbott, 2011)
If you want things to stay as they are, things will have to change Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa (1896-1957) Thank You!!