ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Staff Report
March 14, 2013 To: From: Subject: Transit Committee Darrell Johnson, Chief Executive Officer Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Overview Since the last update in November 2012, volatility in California gasoline prices continues with a recent move above $4 per gallon. As was the case last year, escalation in crude oil prices, refinery maintenance, and speculation in the commodities markets continue to drive gasoline price fluctuation. While supply continues to be available, contingency plans have been updated to prepare for an increase in passenger demand for transit services should it develop. Recommendation Receive and file as an information item. Background California fuel prices are influenced by issues affecting supply and demand typical of any commodity. Economic growth, geopolitical instability, weather, infrastructure problems, and diminished reserves are among the causal factors that influence cost and availability. Unlike other states, California also mandates the production of unique blends of more expensive summer and winter grades of gasoline tailored to help meet seasonal air quality goals. Fuel prices have been an on-going concern, particularly since 2008 when prices vaulted past $4 per gallon for the first time as shown in Attachment A. Last year, prices moved higher much earlier in the year than in past years, before dropping again in June and July. Unlike prior years, 2012 saw a major spike upward in California gasoline prices in October as refinery and logistics problems combined to create spot shortages in fuel availability. For the first time since the late 1970 s, media clips showed California motorists lining up to buy gasoline. Fall prices managed to set a new record of around $4.66 per gallon before dropping to about $3.55 per gallon in December 2012. Orange County Transportation Authority 550 South Main Street / P.O. Box 14184 / Orange / California 92863-1584 / (714) 560-OCTA (6282)
Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Page 2 Of the issues with fuel that can impact transit demand, the greatest driver is fuel availability as demonstrated in 1973 and 1979 when political crises in the Middle East caused a major drop in domestic crude oil inventories. Prolonged shortages and fuel rationing caused a major flight to transit nationwide. However, as supply was restored, many former transit users returned to auto travel. While fuel prices may influence demand, the shift to transit is gradual and usually most noticeable on those higher speed transit services tailored to weekday long-distance commuters such as express bus and commuter rail. The most significant causal factor associated with transit demand is the state of the economy. As shown in Attachment B, the unemployment rate for both the State and Orange County remains high. Not surprisingly, Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) bus ridership continues to lag well below the record levels set in 2008 before the recession as shown in Attachments C1, C2, and C3. Discussion Since the last contingency plan update in November 2012, gasoline prices dropped through the end of December, but started rising again in January. Echoing the trend started last year, prices have climbed quickly to over $4.20 per gallon. Analysts seem to agree that the price increases were caused by refinery issues associated with maintenance and the seasonal switch to summer gasoline blends. As this report is written, prices have stabilized and analysts continue to argue about the likelihood prices will drop or continue to move higher. Meanwhile, staff continues to monitor transit ridership trends that may suggest the need for additional capacity. Leading Indicators As gasoline prices increase, long-distance commuters may turn to higher speed transit services such as Express Bus and commuter rail with connections to Stationlink shuttles. Attachments D, E1, E2, E3, and F show ridership trends since 2008 and the spikes in demand associated with past fuel price episodes. Vanpools are effective alternatives to solo driving and have been gaining in popularity. Attachments G1 and G2 show how OCTA s vanpool program has shown steady growth since 2008.
Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Page 3 Bus ridership on OCTA s system during 2012 remained essentially flat compared to 2011, and Metrolink ridership has also been fairly steady. Capacity remains on both systems to accommodate additional demand in the unlikely case fuel prices continue to rise to such an extent that demand for transit service escalates sharply. Staff continues to monitor ridership and, as trends appear, additional analysis is performed to identify situations where service levels require adjustments. It should be noted that additional OCTA bus service was added to the system during the current fiscal year to address schedule maintenance issues. OCTA will continue to promote the use of carpools and vanpools. Metrolink Service Contingency With the delivery of new rail cars, Metrolink has extra rail cars that can be used as a contingency fleet for use in lengthening trainsets in order to accommodate a sharp increase in demand. Approximately 68 additional rail cars could be pressed into service if necessary. Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan The contingency plan has been updated to help guide OCTA s response to a fuel crisis episode resulting in a major increase in demand for transit services. The plan is based on the following eight elements: Contingency fleet of reserve buses Monitor service capacity Allow increased passenger loads Reactivate multi-disciplinary Fuel Crisis Task Force Monitor and adjust resources Promote alternative travel modes and work plans throughout the region Add service capacity subject to need validation and budget authority Improve Metrolink service attractiveness The contingency plan is outlined in more detail in Attachment H. Summary Oil and gasoline price volatility continues. In addition to unanticipated problems caused by political events, weather, and infrastructure breakdowns, routine infrastructure maintenance can also impact fuel prices. Since January 2013, California prices have risen quickly and again exceed $4 per gallon. While
Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Page 4 OCTA bus system ridership on the whole has shown little if any growth during the past year, some commuters have sought out alternative travel modes such as Express Bus, commuter rail, and vanpool. In the event fuel pricing and supply issues cause a major increase in demand for transit services, both OCTA and Metrolink can add capacity if necessary. Staff will continue to monitor transit utilization and provide periodic updates to the Board of Directors as demand trends are identified. In the meantime, OCTA has updated the Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan. Attachments A. Gasoline Monthly Cost Per Gallon B. Annual Unemployment Rate for California and Orange County 2003-2012 C1. OCTA Fixed-Route Average Weekday Boardings 2008-2013 C2. OCTA Fixed-Route Average Saturday Boardings 2008-2013 C3. OCTA Fixed-Route Average Sunday Boardings 2008-2013 D. Average Boardings 2008-2013 for OCTA Express Bus Service E1. Ridership Orange County Metrolink E2. Ridership - OC Line E3. Ridership - IEOC Line E4. Ridership - 91Line F. Average Boardings 2008-2013 for OCTA Stationlink G1. Active Vanpools by Month 2008-2013 G2. Vanpool Passenger Trips by Month 2008-2013 H. Orange County Transportation Authority Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Revised March 2013 Prepared by: Approved by: Scott Holmes Manager, Service Planning and Customer Advocacy 714-560-5710 Beth McCormick General Manager, Transit 714-560-5964
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment A
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment B
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment C1
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment C2
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment C3
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment D
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment E1
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment E2
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment E3
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment E4
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment F
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment G1
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment G2
ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY Fuel Crisis Contingency Plan Update Attachment H
ATTACHMENT H ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY FUEL CRISIS CONTINGENCY PLAN Revised March 2013 Overview As fuel prices rise, interest in public transportation as an alternative to private vehicle travel also increases. As demand increases, available capacity is reduced, and at some point, additional service will need to be deployed to accommodate growth in ridership. To prepare for a significant increase in demand, the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) has developed the following fuel crisis contingency plan. It is based on maintaining additional reserve capacity that can be deployed to supplement those services where a depletion of capacity has been verified, with the budget authority to do so. The plan is based on the following components: 1. Contingency fleet of reserve buses 2. Monitor service capacity 3. Allow increased passenger loads 4. Reactivate multi-disciplinary Fuel Crisis Task Force 5. Monitor and adjust resources 6. Promote alternative travel modes and work plans throughout the region 7. Add service capacity subject to need validation and budget authority 8. Improve Metrolink service attractiveness In detail, the plan elements are: Contingency Fleet of Reserve Buses and Commuter Rail Cars Approximately 49 40-foot buses comprise the OCTA fixed-route contingency fleet. The buses can be made service-ready within days. With the delivery of new Rotem commuter rail cars, Metrolink s excess 68 rail cars could serve as a contingency fleet to lengthen trainsets if needed. 1
Monitor Service Capacity OCTA is actively monitoring passenger activity to identify repeated cases of ridership levels in excess of load ratio policy guidelines. Initial growth in ridership is likely to be targeted toward selected service categories such as commuter rail, express bus and commuter rail feeder services. OCTA s and Metrolink s on-going rider data gathering programs are being used to pinpoint those services and times of day where demand is clearly increasing to determine if available capacity is being depleted. Indicators of possible excess loads such as pass-up reports, passenger complaints, and operator reports are being monitored. Allow Increased Passenger Loads Current loading policy guidelines specify peak hour loads can average up to 130 percent of seated capacity for local bus routes. Should demand increase sharply, more riders can be accommodated by lifting the load ratio to 150 percent, thereby increasing the number of riders served with existing service levels. Express bus loading policy specify loads can average 100 percent of seated capacity but may be relaxed upward to permit an average 120 percent should demand increase sharply. Reconvene Multi-Disciplinary Fuel Crisis Task Force Should the crisis persist, the OCTA multi-disciplinary Fuel Crisis Task Force will be reconvened to review the effectiveness of agency responses, and, if necessary, to develop strategies to strengthen mitigation measures. Periodic reports and updates will be prepared. The task force is composed of representatives from the Planning, External Affairs, Finance and Administration, Human Resources, Capital Programs, and Transit divisions. Monitor and Adjust Resources Fuel availability for transit vehicles is being monitored and delivery status is updated on a regular basis. Coach operator and maintenance manpower will be scheduled to work overtime in the initial response to a significant increase in demand requiring service augmentation. Should the increase in demand continue to escalate, manpower levels to operate and maintain OCTA buses may be increased. OCTA recall of former employees or hiring and training for new employees will be implemented as necessary and as approved. Promote Alternative Travel Modes and Work Plans Throughout the Region A critical component of the fuel crisis contingency plan is the public outreach and information programs helping motorists enhance their awareness of travel alternatives. 2
Should the crisis persist, a multi-agency, multi-media promotional campaign will be developed regarding service options for both short and longer-distance trip making. High speed and longer distance alternatives such as Metrolink commuter rail and express bus services would be promoted along with information regarding schedules, connections to feeder bus services, and associated fares. Use of carpools and vanpools will continue to be promoted and contact with employee transportation coordinators (ETC s) will be a primary distribution source to provide information to area employers. The OCTA vanpool seat finder and the Regional 511 Ride Match databases will assist the public in finding available spaces in existing vanpools. Vanpooling and other forms of public transportation are promoted in countywide rideshare events. New vanpool promotions will be introduced to increase public awareness. Add Service Capacity Subject to Need Validation and Budget Authority Mitigation measures to address capacity depletion include adjustment of trip times and the addition of extra buses where necessary. In the event capacity must be inserted into the system between standard service change dates, temporary bus schedules will be utilized, and supplemental passenger information will be distributed in the form of revised timetables, Rider s Alerts, and updated web site information. Improve Metrolink Service Attractiveness OCTA staff worked with Metrolink staff to implement a short ride fare structure applied to travel within Orange County as part of the Metrolink Service Expansion Program. The reduced fares offered make Metrolink service affordable for a larger segment of the transit community. Should demand for commuter rail service grow beyond available capacity, Metrolink may expand capacity by adding additional cars to existing train sets. 3