Group of Experts on Renewable Energy (GERE)

Group of Experts on Renewable Energy (GERE) Status of Renewable Energy in the ECE Region Geneva, 18 November 2014 This project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) supports this initiative on the basis of a decision adopted by the German Bundestag. 1

The Assignment Research of consultants contracted by the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ), producing 2 separate reports: - Assessment of Activities of Multi- and Bilateral Donors n the Area of Renewable Energies in the ECE Region (August 2014), and - Baseline Conditions on Renewable Energies in the ECE region (September 2014) Assignment supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) Input to various documents prepared / compiled by UNECE for Main sources used by consultants include: Committee on Sustainable - IEA Data Services - Energy Balances of OECD and of Non-OECED Energy countries incl. GERE - IRENA Renewable Energy Country Profiles - REN21 Renewables Interactive Map - REN21, Renewables Global Status Report 2014 - IEA/IRENA Global Renewable Energy Policies and Measures Database IEA & World Bank, Global Tracking Mechanism report () - World Bank, Global Tracking Framework report (V.3, 2013) - Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2

The Assignment Motivation: The SE4All initiative embodies three objectives to be achieved by 2030: access to modern energy services for all, doubling the share of renewable energy uptake, and doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency. Goal: to provide an overview regarding where the ECE region stands in RE uptake the starting point Observed elements related to renewable energies (RE): Status / role of RE in energy balances RE-E, RE-H/C and RE-T installed capacities RE resource potentials RE strategic planning documents RE-related legal and regulatory framework RE-related targets RE regulatory policies and support schemes 3

Geographic coverage - classification of (56) UNECE member States in the report (1) Northern America (NA) incl. 2 countries, (2) European Union (EU-28) together with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA-4) and 3 European Microstates (Andorra, Monaco,San Marino), abbreviated as EU.EF.3 - altogether 35 countries, (3) Western Balkans (WB) 5 countries, (4) Eastern Partnership (EP) 6 countries, (5) Central Asia (CA) 5 countries, and (6) Other countries (I.R.T.), actually covering Israel, Russian Federation and Turkey 4

Volume of RES in GFEC [PJ; logarythmic scale] Share of RES in GFEC [%] Exemplary set of charts for an observed element e.g. RE in total GFEC (PJ and %) (1) Volumes and shares of RES in GFEC by sub-region (,, -) 1,000,000,000 30 100,000,000 20 10,000,000 10 1,000,000 0 100,000-10 10,000-20 1,000-30 100-40 10-50 1-60 NON-OECD OECD WORLD ECE ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-WB ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-I.R.T. 5

Exemplary set of charts for an observed element e.g. RE in total GFEC (PJ and %) (2) Volumes and shares of GFEC and RES in GFEC by ECE sub-region in 4,471; 3% 25,686; 16% Volume of GFEC [PJ] 168; 1% 185; 1% 1,307; 10% Volume of RES in GFEC [PJ] 5,078; 3% 813; 0% ECE 162,350; 42% WORLD Total 389,299; 100% 74,088; 46% ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-WB ECE-EP 123; 1% ECE 13,158; 23% WORLD Total 57,414; 100% 5,366; 41% ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-WB ECE-EP 52,214; 32% ECE-CA ECE-I.R.T. 6,009; 46% ECE-CA ECE-I.R.T. 18 16 Share of RES in GFEC [%] 16.0 16.2 14 12 12.6 10 8 6 4 7.9 3.6 4.3 5.8 8.9 2 0 ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-WB ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-I.R.T. ECE WORLD 6

US CA DE RU IT FR NO SE ES TR AT PL FI GB RO PT DK CH CZ NL IS BE UA GR HU RS LV TJ KG BG KZ IL SK BY LT GE HR SI IE AL UZ EE BA ME MK AZ AM CY LU MD MT TM 3.82 4.98 4.57 4.43 8.55 13.13 11.59 10.67 33.67 31.19 23.98 23.78 23.67 23.57 48.76 46.93 46.90 40.27 40.15 40.12 35.85 74.58 60.43 54.02 316.55 297.51 293.18 195.19 191.03 175.70 152.97 120.93 99.58 96.22 90.51 79.41 70.76 63.76 63.35 62.58 587.67 581.82 502.20 444.46 419.82 354.91 1,301.89 916.29 905.61 4,064.43 Exemplary set of charts for an observed element e.g. RE in total GFEC (PJ) (3) Renewable energy sources in GFEC by UNECE Member State, (PJ) 10,000 [PJ] 1,000 100 ECE average: 253.04 PJ 13 MS above, 39 MS below 10 1 7

The ECE region in the context of basic socio-economic, energy and climate change considerations SN Main socio-economic, energy and climate change related indicators Indicator ECE average World average ECE region vs WORLD index (factor) NoC 1) above / below ECE NoC above / below WORLD 1 GDP per capita (current US$, ) 31,944 10,259 3.11 18 / 34 35 / 17 2 Total Primary Energy Supply (PES) energy intensity - PES/GDP (MJ/000 US$) 5,679 7,684 0.74 32 / 20 22 / 30 3 Energy self-sufficiency (%) 93.2 2) 100.0 0.93 8 / 44 8 / 44 4 Cost of fuel import as percentage of GDP (%) 4.20 38 / 11 3) 5 Electricity consumption per capita (kwh) 7,736 3,174 2.44 10 / 42 41 / 11 6 Installed electrical capacity per capita (W) 2,085 765 2.72 13 / 39 42 / 10 7 Share in total global emission of CO2 39.45 100.0 0.39 8 Emission of CO2 per capita (tco2) 9.9 4.5 2.21 10 /42 37 / 15 9 Emission of CO2 per GDP (kg CO2/current US$) 0.311 0.439 0.71 25 / 27 19 / 33 10 Emission of CO2 per total PES (tco2/tj) 54.7 57.1 0.96 23 / 29 18 / 34 Notes: 1) NoC - number of UNECE Member States that are over or under the average value for the ECE region, based on data for 52 countries. 2) The ECE average number is high due to 8 countries, which are net exporters of energy, with the self-sufficiency indicator considerably over 100% (Norway: 694%, Azerbaijan: 477%, Kazakhstan: 234%, Turkmenistan: 213%, Russian Federation: 180%, Canada: 162% and Denmark: 117%). 3) Based on data for 49 countries. 8

Socio-economic circumstances GDP per capita by UNECE member State (current US$/cap) ECE region: 31,944 current US$/cap (18 MS above, 34 MS below) WORLD: 10,259 current US$/cap (35 MS above, 17 MB below) 9

Energy intensities Economic wellbeing provides better conditions for the promotion of energy efficiency measures. Energy is used in a wasteful manner in lower-income countries. Low-income countries do not add sufficient economic value per unit of consumed energy. Such unfavourable circumstances represent important potential for introduction and implementation of energy efficiency and RE programmes on a large-scale. Introducing renewable energy may face technical limitations beyond the economic or financial ones that apply in most countries. At risk of technical challenges in particular are small countries. 10

Electricity use and installed electrical capacities per capita A vast majority of ECE member States demonstrate potential for increased use of electricity per capita in the future - driven by aspirations for improved quality of life. Capacity additions seem reasonable and justified primarily in member States with per capita installed power generation capacities around and below the global average (765 W/cap). This growth potential is an opportunity for renewables-based electric power provided that such projects are competitive locally with traditional technology. 11

Self-sufficiency in PES and electricity generation by ECE sub-region (,, and -) 460 110 420 105 380 100 340 95 300 90 260 85 220 80 180 75 140 70 100 65 60 60 20 55 NON-OECD OECD WORLD ECE ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-WB ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-I.R.T. Self-sufficiency Production of Primary Energy / Total Primary Energy Supply [%] Self-sufficiency Electricity Generation / Electricity Consumption [%] The ECE region is well balanced in terms of electricity production and a bit less in terms of PES. The most notable oscillations in electricity self-sufficiency in WB (due to specific hydrological circumstances in -) The CA and the I.R.T. sub-regions are huge exporters of PES and also of electricity, while the EU.EF.3 sub-region reaches only 60% self-sufficiency in PES, the lowest within the ECE region. 12

Renewable energy resource potentials 45 40 35 38 39 30 29 Wind 25 20 15 10 5 0 22 21 11 High 3 0 0 0 0 0 High to Medium 18 15 9 8 3 3 Medium 2 9 2 2 5 0 Medium to Low 0 22 14 12 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 Low Unknown Not applicable Solar Hydro Biomass Geothermal Ocean The ECE region is a highly promising region to deploy nearly any kind of RE technologies. Further research and field surveys (biomass), measurements (hydro, wind) and exploratory drilling (geothermal) is required to permanently improve the renewable energy resource assessment. Feasibility studies are required, based on the application of state-of-art RE technologies and updated data on costs in order to refresh the assessment of technical and economic potentials. 13

Role of UNECE member States in global installed capacities by RE-technology (status as of end-2013) Wind power: 8 ECE member States are among the top 10 countries of the World Solar PV: 7 ECE member States among the top 10 Concentrated solar thermal power (CSP): 2 ECE member States among the top 10 Hydropower: 3 ECE Member States among the top 6 Geothermal power: 2 ECE Member States among the top 6 Solar water heating collectors: 7 ECE Member States among the top 12 Biofuels production: 8 ECE Member States among the top 16 14

Renewable energy strategic planning documents National energy strategies; 32 countries (62%) have adopted long-term national strategies for the energy sector as a whole. Together with programmes or policies as called in some countries, the total number is 35 countries (67%) altogether. Long-term energy strategies have been passed in all countries of the ECE-WB sub-region and in most ECE-AP and ECE-CA countries Preparation of separate documents on RE strategies is not widely practiced; in 7 countries (13%). Strategic plans for RE sub-sectors (e.g. wind, solar, hydro etc.); in 16 countries (31%). Specific RE sub-sector programmes and investment plans; in 22 countries (42%). National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP) are the major documents that determine the longterm outlook for RE development, in most cases, by 2020. In line with the last RES Directive /28/EC, they are mandatory to all EU MSs (28) and since 2012, also to the Contracting Parties to Energy Community Treaty (8). The available data indicate that as many as 39 countries (75%) have NREAPs or similar. Without sound RE-policy framework in place remains 3 countries. 15

RE-related targets Type of most frequently used targets Share of energy from renewable sources in gross final energy consumption (GFEC) Share of energy from renewable sources in energy consumption in transport Share of renewable energy in Final Energy Consumption (FEC) Share of renewable energy in total Primary Energy Supply (PES) Share of electricity generated from RE-sources (RES-E) in total electricity generated Share of renewable energy in energy for heating and cooling 16

RE-related targets Statistics on used targets Horizontal cross-sectoral (gross) final energy consumption related targets are most popular targets that have been introduced in 36 countries (69%), followed by: Consumption-related sectoral targets for renewable energy in transport are in 35 countries (67%); Production-related sectoral targets for the power sector, either in terms of installed power generation capacities (24 countries 46%) or electricity generation or consumption (29 countries 56%; Production-related sectoral targets for heating/cooling, either in terms of capacity or energy, are present in 18 countries (35%); Horizontal cross-sectoral primary energy related targets have not been introduced in more than 12 countries (23%). 17

RE regulatory policies and support schemes (1) Renewable energy policy support measures in force 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% ECE ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-I.R.T. ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-WB ECE NA EU.EF.3 I.R.T. EP CA WB 4.7 9.7 5.5 4.3 2.0 1.8 3.0 average number of policy measures in the field of renewables support The number of active policy measures in force might serve well for focusing the discussion on the possible UN/ECE efforts. 18

3 - Policy Sup 4 - Regulator RE regulatory policies and support schemes (2) Share of countries having at least one type of renewable energy policy and measure (6 categories) in force (IEA/IRENA database) The IEA/IRENA database deals with information of tremendous value to both policy and industry decisionmakers. UN/ECE could try to facilitate active participation of its member States in the IEA/IRENA database. 100% 75% 50% 12 MS 4 MS 2 MS 5 MS 1 MS Data Countries of ECE in the IEA/IRENA groups: ECE-NA (0 of 2) ECE-EU.EF.3 (4 o Andorra Liechtenstein Monaco San Marino ECE-I.R.T. (0 of 3 ECE-EP (2 of 6): Georgia Republic of Mo ECE-CA (5 of 5): Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan ECE-WB (1 of 5) The Former Yu 25% 1 - Economic 2 - Informati 0% ECE ECE-NA ECE-EU.EF.3 ECE-I.R.T. ECE-EP ECE-CA ECE-WB ECE NA EU.EF.3 I.R.T. EP CA WB 19 5 - Research (RD&D) 6 - Voluntary

Major inconsistencies REN21: By comparing the information provided within the Renewables Global Status Report (GSR) and the Renewables Interactive Map (MAP), significant inconsistencies have been identified: of nearly 300 policies implementations stated within GSR and MAP, only 82% are coherently referred to in both sources; while 33 are referred to by the MAP exclusively and 5 by the GSR only. REN21 vs IEA/IRENA: Cross-referencing information provided by REN21 (GSR and MAP) and IEA/IRENA Global Renewable Energy Policies and Measures Database on the 4 categories that appear to be perfectly overlapping (Feed-in tariffs, Capital subsidy, Public investment, Tradable RECs), substantial discrepancies appear: of 140 statements by either of the REN21 services 47 are disputed, and 10 more identified as missing in IEA/IRENA database. This means that either IEA/IRENA or REN21 or both are incomplete and/or partially wrong. 20

Major data gaps The most pressing issue is lack of complete geographical coverage. 49 ECE member States individually and further 6 on pair-by-pair within IEA energy balance data services 44 ECE member States within IEA/IRENA database 33 ECE member States within RES-Legal Database The various approaches of individual information sources leads to limited comparability of information as the data structures are not easily aligned (e.g. only 4 of the 34 IEA/IRENA policy types can be aligned with any of the 12 RES support policies of REN21) It appears that nobody collects information on validity of non-existence of the reference. There is no information on the information not being there (whether such status is being claimed or just not known) Further consolidation of information between various data sources and improvement of reliability, accuracy and geographical coverage of provided information seems one of the main challenges. Could and how UN/ECE could contribute? 21

Thank you for your attention Marko Košir Lead Consultant MKosir2@gmail.com Tomaž Lajovic RES Legal and Regulatory Expert Tomaz.Lajovic@gmail.com +386 (0)31 381115 +386 (0)41 735711 22