Renewable Energy Zones for the Africa Clean Energy Corridor

Renewable Energy Zones for the Africa Clean Energy Corridor GRACE WU RANJIT DESHMUKH International Energy Studies Group Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Energy and Resources Group University of California at Berkeley TIJANA RADOJICIC KUDAKWASHE NDHLUKULA International Renewable Energy Agency SAIREC, CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA OCT 4, 2015 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 1

Multi-criteria Analysis for Planning Renewable Energy (MapRE) Identify cost-effective, environmentally sustainable, and socially-equitable RE zones. Inform long-term transmission planning and leverage existing and planned electricity infrastructure. Apply consistent approach across Southern and Eastern African Power Pools to promote power trade and greater regional integration. 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 1

RE zoning study in the larger context 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 1

LBNL MapRE Methodology Combine multi-criteria spatial decision-making with energy economics. 1. Potential wind, solar PV, and solar CSP RE technologies zoned; planned and existing geothermal plants mapped. 2. Mapped existing and proposed transmission and substation infrastructure. 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 1

RESOURCE ASSESSMENT 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 1

IDENTIFY PROJECT OPPORTUNITY AREAS & ESTIMATE ATTRIBUTES 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 1

CREATE ZONES & AGGREGATE ATTRIBUTES 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 1

SCORE ZONES AND CREATE OUTPUTS 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 1

SOLAR ZONES: Zone attributes Area of zone (km2) Annual electricity generation potential (MWh) Capacity factor Capacity value for wind (correlation of generation profile with demand) Human footprint score Score for colocation with other RE technologies Slope Population density WIND ZONES: 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 9

Zone attributes DISTANCE TO NEAREST MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 10

DISTANCE TO NEAREST WIND PLANT Zone attributes DISTANCE TO NEAREST MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 11

DISTANCE TO NEAREST GEOTHERMAL PLANT DISTANCE TO NEAREST WIND PLANT Zone attributes DISTANCE TO NEAREST MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 12

DISTANCE TO NEAREST LOAD CENTER DISTANCE TO NEAREST GEOTHERMAL PLANT DISTANCE TO NEAREST WIND PLANT Zone attributes DISTANCE TO NEAREST MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 13

DISTANCE TO NEAREST TRANSMISSION LINE DISTANCE TO NEAREST LOAD CENTER DISTANCE TO NEAREST GEOTHERMAL PLANT DISTANCE TO NEAREST WIND PLANT Zone attributes DISTANCE TO NEAREST MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 14

Zone attributes: Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) Wind Solar PV CSP Generation Chosen turbine (Class I,II, or III) Class II turbine only Crystalline Generic Parabolic CSP No storage 6 hour storage Transmission Road Total Distance to transmission line or substation Distance to the nearest road Generation + Transmission + Road 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 15

KEY RESULTS Spatial unevenness & interconnections The abundant yet uneven high quality wind, solar PV, and CSP resources demonstrate the importance of regional collaboration and grid interconnection. Total LCOE of RE zones Wind Solar PV CSP 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 16

KEY RESULTS Wind capacity value Consideration of wind capacity values substantially increases the geographic distribution and abundance of favorable wind zones. Annual average capacity factor Adjusted capacity factor in the top 10% of annual demand hours 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 17

KEY RESULTS Siting for multiple objectives Many countries with sufficient renewable energy potential can develop zones that are cost-effective and have low environmental impact. This is also true for proximity to load centers and transmission considerations. Total LCOE (USD/MWh) Average human footprint score (100 most impact, 0 least impacted) 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 18

KEY RESULTS CSP water availability Considering access to surface water, for cooling or cleaning, considerably reduces the number of suitable zones. CSP projects within 10 km of surface water 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 19

KEY RESULTS Co-location opportunities Many zones are suitable for the development of multiple RE technologies, which may improve transmission capacity utility, minimize land use, and increase return on investment. Mean Colocation score 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 20

Anyone Anyone Anyone with Microsoft Office Anyone and GIS experts GIS experts PRODUCTS & OUTPUTS 1 2 3 4 5 FULL REPORT DRAFT Detailed REPORT assumptions Detailed and assumptions methods and methods INTER- ACTIVE PDF MAPS Proprietary (ArcGIS) required or proficiency in another ZONE RANKING TOOL Data interaction and stakeholder inputs INPUT & OUTPUT DATA Richer data visualization and basic analysis using freely available GIS software GIS TOOLS Proprietary (ArcGIS) required or proficiency in another 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 21

Anyone Anyone Anyone with Microsoft Office Anyone and GIS experts GIS experts PRODUCTS & OUTPUTS 1 2 3 4 5 FULL REPORT DRAFT Detailed REPORT assumptions Detailed and assumptions methods and methods INTER- ACTIVE PDF MAPS Proprietary (ArcGIS) required or proficiency in another ZONE RANKING TOOL Data interaction and stakeholder inputs GIS TOOLS Proprietary (ArcGIS) required or proficiency in another INPUT & OUTPUT DATA Richer data visualization and basic analysis using freely available GIS software 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 23

MORE INFO WEBSITES FOR DOWNLOADING AND VIEWING DATA: http://mapre.lbl.gov/ http://globalatlas.irena.org/ Grace Wu: grace.cc.wu@berkeley.edu Ranjit Deshmukh: rdeshmukh@lbl.gov Tijana Radojicic: TRadojicic@irena.org Kuda Ndhlukula: kndhlukula@gmail.com 10/4/2015 RENEWABLE ENERGY ZONES 1