Regional Competitive Industry Analysis

Regional Competitive Industry Analysis Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties June 2017 Yamhill Polk Marion Michael Meyers, Economist (503) 229-6179 michael.meyers@oregon.gov Jill Cuyler, Research Analyst (503) 229-5484 jill.cuyler@oregon.gov Equity, Strategy, & Communications Division One World Trade Center 121 SW Salmon Street, Suite 205 Portland, OR 97204

Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 3 INTRODUCTION... 4 SECTION 1: SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY... 4 Regional Indicators... 4 Competitive Industry Indicators... 5 Employment Growth Projections... 6 Caveats and Limitations... 6 SECTION 2: OVERVIEW OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMY... 7 Employment, Total Payroll and Average Wage per Job... 7 Employment Growth... 7 Manufacturing Employment and Wages... 8 Unemployment Rate... 9 SECTION 3: REGIONAL COMPETITIVE INDUSTRIES... 10 Location Quotient Analysis... 10 Shift-Share Analysis... 11 Regional Employment Projections by Industry... 16 Page 2 of 17

Regional Competitive Industry Analysis Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties Executive Summary Lying in the heart of the Willamette Valley, this region s economy is grounded in natural resources and state government. Marion County is home to Oregon s capitol and second largest Metropolitan Statistical Area, Salem. As such, state government is an important industry to the region s economy. Polk and Yamhill counties are more rural and rely on natural resources for their economic base, although Marion County also has a significant economic base in natural resources. The region had the fourth fastest employment growth rate between 2005and 2015 amongst the state s regions, growing 9.3 percent compared to the state rate of 8.8 percent. The private sector average annual wage is 22 percent lower than the statewide average, due in large part to the region s dependence on lower paying industries in agriculture, food, and beverage manufacturing. Nonetheless, the region has high paying, competitive industries in forestry and wood products, medical equipment, and other manufacturing subsectors. Manufacturing was 13 percent of the region s private sector employment in 2015, slightly higher than the statewide average of 12 percent. With a location Food and Beverages is the quotient of 1.23, manufacturing is very important to the most competitive industry region and its competitive advantages. Food group in the Midmanufacturing is the largest manufacturing subsector Willamette Valley. in the region, accounting for nearly a third of manufacturing employment in the region. Wood products and miscellaneous manufacturing (led by medical equipment) are the next largest manufacturing subsectors. Industries in agriculture, food, and beverage manufacturing experienced some of the largest competitive share percent and job gains in the region between 2005 and 2015. Miscellaneous and medical equipment manufacturing were other competitive industries with strong competitive share gains. Wood product manufacturing endured the largest competitive share job losses between 2005 and 2015 amongst competitive industries in the region. The region is fortunate to have a large number of emerging traded sector industries that have gained competitive advantages and present further opportunities for growth. Some of those industries include educational support services, e-commerce, professional, scientific, and technical services, and software. Page 3 of 17

Private sector payroll employment in the region is projected to grow by 11 percent between 2014 and 2024, less than the statewide rate of 16 percent. Health care, construction, and professional and business services are projected to grow the fastest. Manufacturing is projected to grow slower than the statewide average, but provide many jobs in the region. Introduction The purpose of this report is to present a competitive industry analysis of the regional economy consisting of Marion, Polk, and Yamhill counties. Regional trends in employment and wages are analyzed and compared to trends in Oregon and the U.S. This report provides data and analysis to help economic development practitioners, policy makers, and businesses identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that pertain to their regional economy. The information in this report can be used to help guide strategic economic development efforts in the region. This report is composed of four sections. Section one outlines the data sources and methodology behind the creation of this report. The second section provides an overview of the regional economy by analyzing employment and wage trends over time. Section three supplies a framework to identify industries in the region that may have a competitive advantage in developing or expanding regional industry specialization. Section four analyzes ten year employment projections of the region s main industries and identifies industries with above average growth potential. Section 1: Sources and Methodology This report is based on analysis of statistical data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Oregon Employment Department (OED), and U.S. Census Bureau. The majority of data is presented for traded sector industries only. However, non-traded sector employment data is provided as part of OED s projections (Table 9). The methodology for this report uses a series of indicators to provide a framework for evaluating the competitive strengths and growth opportunities of the regional economy. The following indicators are used for this report. Regional Indicators Section two begins with a comparative analysis of the regional economy focusing on private sector business establishments, employment, total payroll, and average wages to show the geographic distribution and characteristics of employment in each region. Recent employment and wage trends are also analyzed and compared to the state. Page 4 of 17

This is followed by an analysis of manufacturing employment and wages. Employment and average annual wages of leading manufacturing subsectors are presented, along with their location quotients. A location quotient measures the employment concentration of a given industry in a region compared to that industry s employment concentration in the nation as a whole. Location quotients above 1.0 indicate that an industry s share of employment in the region is greater than its share of employment nationwide. For example, an industry with a location quotient of 2.0 has twice as much employment locally as the national average for that industry. Location quotients are a simple way to help identify industries in the region that have a competitive advantage as demonstrated by a greater than average employment concentration. An analysis of manufacturing establishments by size class follows, which shows the distribution of manufacturers in the region amongst four different size classes. This analysis shows how much a region may be dependent on small, medium, or large-size manufacturers. The unemployment rate analysis reveals how well the region has done at creating and retaining jobs for its working-age population. The analysis compares the regional unemployment rate to rates from Oregon and the U.S., which shows whether the region has performed better or worse than average. This comparative analysis also provides insight into how autonomous the region s economy is from Oregon and the U.S. Competitive Industry Indicators Section three begins with two detailed analyses that attempt to identify industries that have a competitive advantage in the region. A detailed location quotient analysis by four digit NAICS codes shows industries in the region that appear to have a competitive advantage based on high location quotients. This analysis includes all traded sectors of the economy, not just manufacturing. Industries with high location quotients and higher than average wages are highlighted. Following the location quotient analysis is a shift-share analysis. Shift-share analysis, like location quotient analysis, is useful in identifying industries with a competitive advantage in the region. Unlike a location quotient analysis that is a point-in-time analysis, shiftshare analysis looks at industry performance over time to measure how employment in an industry changed in relation to national and industrial trends. If a region s industry consistently outperforms its peers nationwide over a period of time this indicates a growing competitive advantage for that industry. The shift-share analysis examines the ten-year growth rates for regional and nationwide industry employment. Employment change over the past ten years for each industry is broken out by change due to national total employment trends, change due to national industry employment trends, and change due to competitive advantage. Tables 6, 7, and 8 present competitive share percent changes and competitive share job gains and losses for industries in the region that had the largest gains and losses in competitive advantage. Page 5 of 17

Employment Growth Projections Section four examines employment growth projections for the major industries in each region. Current projections cover the period from 2014 to 2024. Caveats and Limitations Employment and wage data throughout the report comes from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data from the BLS and OED. Data was also used from the U.S. Census Bureau s Local Employment Dynamics (LED) program, which is also based on QCEW data. All of these sources are limited to employment and wages covered under unemployment insurance. The final table in this report (Table 9) is not limited to covered employment and includes total non-farm employment. A substantial amount of industry employment and wage data for Oregon counties is confidential and not published by BLS or OED. Estimates were created for confidential three and four digit NAICS industries by county. The primary method used to create estimates was wage share calculations from LED data. Unlike BLS and OED employment and wage data, LED data includes wages for many industries for which employment is confidential. As a result, one can produce employment estimates for industries with confidential employment by calculating the share of wages in a particular industry compared to other confidential industries under the same parent industry and applying that ratio to the amount of unpublished confidential employment amongst those industries. Estimates were done for industries with at least $3 million in annual payroll. Local knowledge and analyst judgment were used to vet the reliability of final employment data. In just in few cases, more reliable employment figures from other sources such as Hoovers (Dun & Bradstreet), newspapers, or company websites were substituted for wage share employment estimates. In these instances, the wage column reads N/A in relevant tables. The manufacturing establishments by size data in Table 3 is a combination of two data sets. The total number of manufacturing establishments comes from QCEW data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The percent of manufacturing establishments by employment size-class data comes from County Business Patterns (CBP) data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The two data sets are combined in this table because the QCEW data is more accurate in its total count of establishments, but it does not include size class data for counties. The CBP data does have size class data for counties, but its overall number of establishments by county is not as accurate as the QCEW. Combined, one can estimate the number of establishments by employment-size class. Tables 6, 7, and 8 include ten year employment change analyses by industry. Due to the administrative nature of QCEW data, changes in industry employment can occur that are not the result of actual economic changes within the industry. Some, but not all, of these Page 6 of 17

so-called non-economic changes were identified in the ten year analyses and industry employment adjustments were made so that industry employment trends could be more accurately captured. Section 2: Overview of the Regional Economy Employment, Total Payroll, and Average Wage per Job Private sector employment in this region accounted for 10 percent of Oregon s total private sector employment in 2015. The 2015 private sector average annual wage in the region was $37,077, 22 percent lower than the statewide average. Marion County accounts for almost three-quarters of the region s total private sector employment. Marion and Yamhill counties have similar average wages ($37,491 and $38,293 respectively) while Polk County has a lower average wage ($31,137). Table 1: Employment, Total Wages, and Average Wage per Job, Private Sector, 2015 Area Employment Total Payroll Average Wage % of Region Employment % of Statewide Ave. Wage Marion 109,871 4,119,149,756 $37,491 71.5% 78.5% Polk 13,775 428,918,897 $31,137 9.0% 65.2% Yamhill 29,939 $1,146,454,275 $38,293 19.5% 80.2% Region 153,585 $5,694,522,928 $37,077 100.0% 77.6% Oregon 1,508,680 $72,079,481,599 $47,777 N/A 100.0% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2015. Employment Growth The region s ten year private sector employment growth ranked 4 th in the state. Total private sector employment in the region increased by 9.3 percent between 2005 and 2015, higher than the statewide average growth rate of 8.8 percent. Private sector employment growth in the region was fastest in Polk and Yamhill counties (14.2 and 12.3 percent) between 2005 and 2015, while Marion County grew at 7.9 percent, slower than the statewide average. Page 7 of 17

Table 2: Change in Private Sector Employment, 2005-2015 Area 2005 Employment 2015 Employment Employment Change Employment Change Rank Marion 101,801 109,871 7.9% 14 Polk 12,059 13,775 14.2% 8 Yamhill 26,659 29,939 12.3% 9 Region 140,519 153,585 9.3% 4 Oregon 1,386,917 1,508,680 8.8% N/A Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages. Manufacturing Employment and Wages Manufacturing was 13 percent of the region s private sector employment in 2015. With a location quotient of 1.23, manufacturing is very important to the region s economy and competitive advantages. Food manufacturing is the largest manufacturing subsector in the region, accounting for nearly a third of manufacturing employment in the region. Wood products and miscellaneous manufacturing (led by medical equipment) are the next two largest subsectors. The region is similar to the state in its composition of small, medium, and large size establishments. Page 8 of 17

Table 3: Manufacturing Employment and Wages, 2015 NAICS Industry Employment Location Quotient Average Wage 31-33 Manufacturing 19,646 1.23 $42,459 311 Food Manufacturing 5,839 2.98 $32,391 321 Wood Product Manufacturing 2,061 4.17 $42,788 339 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 1,759 2.31 $56,562 312 Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing 1,699 5.84 $35,530 332 Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 1,409 0.75 $46,606 333 Machinery Manufacturing 1,128 0.78 $53,261 337 Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing 1,101 2.24 $32,382 336 Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 1,002 0.48 $37,904 326 Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 653 0.73 $36,518 334 Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 630 0.46 $64,160 331 Primary Metal Manufacturing 508 1.00 $91,981 323 Printing and Related Support Activities 428 0.74 $35,049 322 Paper Manufacturing 418 0.87 $82,421 325 Chemical Manufacturing 389 0.37 $55,113 327 Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 245 0.48 $43,171 315 Apparel Manufacturing 212 1.21 $29,369 314 Textile Product Mills 135 0.90 $27,079 Source: Business Oregon with data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon Employment Department, U.S. Census Bureau (2014-2015), and other public documents. Table 4: Manufacturing Establishments by Size, 2015 Percent of Manufacturing Establishments by Employment-Size Class Area Total Manufacturing Establishments 1-19 20-99 100-249 250 or More Marion 378 74.0% 19.4% 4.3% 2.3% Polk 84 71.4% 20.6% 6.3% 1.6% Yamhill 267 75.5% 20.3% 2.5% 1.7% Region 729 74.3% 19.9% 3.8% 2.0% Oregon 5,850 74.3% 19.0% 4.4% 2.3% Source: Total establishments from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages; employment-size class data from U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns, 2014. Unemployment Rate The region s unemployment rate largely mirrored Oregon s between 2005 and 2010, but has remained slightly above it every year since. However, it does continue to decrease, and was nearly equal to the statewide rate in 2015. Page 9 of 17

The region reached its highest unemployment rate over the ten year period, 11 percent, in 2009. The lowest unemployment rate over the ten year period, 5.2 percent, occurred in 2007. 12% Chart 1: Average Annual Unemployment Rate 2005-2015 10% Unemployment Rate 8% 6% 4% 2% Region Oregon U.S. 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Section 3: Regional Competitive Industries Location Quotient Analysis Agriculture, food and beverages, and forestry and wood products are the industry groups with the highest location quotients in the region. Only about half of the region s high location quotient industries pay above average wages, due in large part to lower paying industries in agriculture and food and beverages. Medical equipment and supplies manufacturing and industries in metals and machinery are additional traded sectors with high location quotients that pay higher than average wages. Page 10 of 17

Table 5: Industries with Highest Location Quotients Private Sector, 2015, U.S. Base Area, Industries with Employment Greater than 100 and Location Quotient 1.2 or Greater, Industries with Average Wage above Region Average Shaded NAICS Industry Employment Location Quotient Average Wage 1153 Support Activities for Forestry 1,147 57.75 $41,431 1114 Greenhouse, Nursery, and Floriculture Production 4,372 22.95 $30,168 1119 Other Crop Farming 1,891 22.71 $31,357 3114 Fruit and Vegetable Preserving and Specialty Food Mfg. 4,202 18.93 $31,150 1133 Logging 1,103 16.41 $65,243 1151 Support Activities for Crop Production 4,046 9.63 $18,716 3121 Beverage Manufacturing 1,701 6.22 $35,589 1113 Fruit and Tree Nut Farming 1,426 5.58 $27,596 3212 Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Mfg. 427 4.45 $25,919 3311 Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing 498 4.34 $93,255 3219 Other Wood Product Manufacturing 1,202 4.31 $36,911 3211 Sawmills and Wood Preservation 429 3.61 $59,749 3362 Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manufacturing 662 3.43 $33,269 3113 Sugar and Confectionery Product Manufacturing 311 3.32 $32,679 1112 Vegetable and Melon Farming 424 3.31 $28,427 3391 Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing 1,245 3.13 $63,181 2123 Nonmetallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying 344 2.90 $53,491 3371 Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cabinet Mfg. 835 2.70 $33,498 7212 RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Recreational Camps 188 2.34 $17,276 3342 Communications Equipment Manufacturing 268 2.34 $57,049 1121 Cattle Ranching and Farming 454 2.27 $37,020 3119 Other Food Manufacturing 548 2.16 $49,437 3332 Industrial Machinery Manufacturing 306 2.09 $38,550 4249 Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods Merchant Wholesalers 840 1.97 $46,855 3221 Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Mills 251 1.90 $93,255 3255 Paint, Coating, and Adhesive Manufacturing 122 1.54 $56,301 3323 Architectural and Structural Metals Manufacturing 726 1.52 $47,756 7224 Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) 729 1.51 $13,939 3118 Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing 572 1.49 $24,557 3399 Other Miscellaneous Manufacturing 514 1.41 $40,529 3152 Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing 189 1.32 $28,754 Source: Business Oregon with data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon Employment Department, U.S. Census Bureau (2014-2015), and other public documents. Shift-Share Analysis Sugar and confectionary product manufacturing experienced the highest competitive share percent gains between 2005 and 2015. Other industries in Food & Beverages also had high competitive share gains. Page 11 of 17

Other crop farming and support activities for crop production, and miscellaneous and medical equipment manufacturing were other major traded sector industries that experienced high competitive share percent gains between 2005 and 2015. Amongst competitive traded sector industries, wood product manufacturing endured the largest competitive share job losses between 2005 and 2015. Cattle ranching and farming and industrial machinery manufacturing experienced the largest competitive share percent losses amongst traded sector industries between 2005 and 2015. A diverse group of emerging traded sector industries in region experienced high competitive share percent gains between 2005 and 2015, including educational support services, motor vehicle parts manufacturing, other general purpose machinery manufacturing, other financial investment activities, e-commerce, professional, scientific, and technical services, and software. Page 12 of 17

Table 6: Competitive Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Gains, 2005-2015 Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Greater than 1.2 and Employment Greater than 100 Employment Location NAICS Industry 2015 Quotient Competitive Share Percent Competitive Share Jobs 3113 Sugar and Confectionery Product Manufacturing 311 3.32 367.0% 247 4482 Shoe Stores 488 1.81 137.1% 263 1151 Support Activities for Crop Production 4,046 9.63 94.9% 1,825 3399 Other Miscellaneous Manufacturing 514 1.41 89.9% 270 3371 Household and Institutional Furniture and Kitchen Cabinet Man 835 2.70 67.0% 431 3121 Beverage Manufacturing 1,701 6.22 64.5% 576 3118 Bakeries and Tortilla Manufacturing 572 1.49 53.4% 192 4452 Specialty Food Stores 472 1.58 46.7% 154 2361 Residential Building Construction 1,343 1.50 36.8% 456 3255 Paint, Coating, and Adhesive Manufacturing 122 1.54 35.8% 35 6232 Residential Intellectual and Developmental Disability, Mental H 2,044 2.59 35.5% 458 2379 Other Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 170 1.20 32.7% 41 6213 Offices of Other Health Practitioners 1,301 1.23 31.6% 229 2383 Building Finishing Contractors 1,615 1.69 27.9% 437 3362 Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manufacturing 662 3.43 27.5% 158 2389 Other Specialty Trade Contractors 1,187 1.50 25.9% 261 1119 Other Crop Farming 1,891 22.71 25.8% 465 4249 Miscellaneous Nondurable Goods Merchant Wholesalers 840 1.97 21.6% 161 4812 Nonscheduled Air Transportation 267 5.14 20.5% 50 3152 Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing 189 1.32 19.8% 50 1133 Logging 1,103 16.41 18.6% 208 3391 Medical Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing 1,245 3.13 14.2% 153 4442 Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores 281 1.45 13.1% 32 4854 School and Employee Bus Transportation 417 1.66 12.8% 42 3119 Other Food Manufacturing 548 2.16 12.1% 49 7224 Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) 729 1.51 11.8% 75 3114 Fruit and Vegetable Preserving and Specialty Food Manufacturin 4,202 18.93 10.5% 411 3323 Architectural and Structural Metals Manufacturing 726 1.52 9.5% 68 3342 Communications Equipment Manufacturing 268 2.34 8.7% 34 6243 Vocational Rehabilitation Services 1,029 2.41 7.8% 70 3311 Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing 498 4.34 7.2% 36 1112 Vegetable and Melon Farming 424 3.31 5.2% 21 3212 Veneer, Plywood, and Engineered Wood Product Manufacturing 427 4.45 4.9% 32 6212 Offices of Dentists 1,588 1.36 4.5% 59 2123 Nonmetallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying 344 2.90 3.5% 14 4884 Support Activities for Road Transportation 213 1.71 3.0% 5 1153 Support Activities for Forestry 1,147 57.75 2.0% 23 3221 Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Mills 251 1.90 1.6% 5 6113 Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools 2,334 1.48 1.5% 28 1114 Greenhouse, Nursery, and Floriculture Production 4,372 22.95 0.6% 32 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon Employment Department, and U.S. Census Bureau. Page 13 of 17

Table 7: Competitive Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Losses, 2005-2015 Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Greater than 1.2 and Employment Greater than 100 Employment Location NAICS Industry 2015 Quotient Competitive Share Percent Competitive Share Jobs 4859 Other Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation 203 1.56-62.6% -124 5621 Waste Collection 272 1.28-41.1% -123 1121 Cattle Ranching and Farming 454 2.27-31.4% -148 3332 Industrial Machinery Manufacturing 306 2.09-17.9% -74 6214 Outpatient Care Centers 1,228 1.27-17.2% -150 2373 Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction 529 1.34-13.6% -94 3219 Other Wood Product Manufacturing 1,202 4.31-12.9% -283 3211 Sawmills and Wood Preservation 429 3.61-8.8% -56 2371 Utility System Construction 896 1.45-7.6% -60 7212 RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Recreational Camps 188 2.34-5.5% -9 4413 Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores 917 1.30-3.6% -31 6233 Continuing Care Retirement Communities and Assisted Living F 3,188 2.83-2.8% -64 2381 Foundation, Structure, and Building Exterior Contractors 1,450 1.40-1.4% -28 1113 Fruit and Tree Nut Farming 1,426 5.58-0.4% -5 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon Employment Department, and U.S. Census Bureau. Page 14 of 17

Table 8: Emerging Industries with Highest Competitive Advantage Percent Gains, 2005-2015 Shift-Share Analysis, Private Sector, U.S. Base Area, Industries with LQ Less than 1.2 and Employment Greater than 100 Employment Location NAICS Industry 2015 Quotient Competitive Share Percent Competitive Share Jobs 6117 Educational Support Services 176 1.02 739.5% 142 3363 Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing 116 0.16 279.4% 89 3339 Other General Purpose Machinery Manufacturing 186 0.54 258.6% 134 5239 Other Financial Investment Activities 201 0.34 203.8% 114 4541 Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses 295 0.67 189.5% 167 5629 Remediation and Other Waste Management Services 178 1.00 160.5% 100 5416 Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services 600 0.36 153.0% 303 5112 Software Publishers 176 0.41 143.0% 89 6219 Other Ambulatory Health Care Services 380 1.03 125.1% 181 3335 Metalworking Machinery Manufacturing 209 0.88 119.8% 119 5417 Scientific Research and Development Services 317 0.37 114.4% 158 4247 Petroleum and Petroleum Products Merchant Wholesalers 110 0.86 109.7% 58 5619 Other Support Services 432 1.10 96.1% 208 3364 Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing 171 0.27 87.8% 77 6239 Other Residential Care Facilities 223 1.05 69.0% 92 4453 Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores 172 0.87 62.3% 62 4231 Motor Vehicle and Motor Vehicle Parts and Supplies Merchant W 273 0.64 44.1% 86 7211 Traveler Accommodation 1,036 0.43 42.9% 300 6215 Medical and Diagnostic Laboratories 162 0.48 39.9% 38 6244 Child Day Care Services 1,047 0.98 36.9% 260 4921 Couriers and Express Delivery Services 329 0.46 35.9% 83 5617 Services to Buildings and Dwellings 2,327 0.90 31.2% 494 5221 Depository Credit Intermediation 1,963 0.90 28.1% 450 4532 Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores 293 0.80 27.8% 82 4521 Department Stores 2,071 1.18 27.4% 508 6216 Home Health Care Services 478 0.28 24.8% 64 4483 Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores 170 0.96 24.4% 39 4251 Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers 580 0.49 19.8% 80 4481 Clothing Stores 1,539 1.18 19.0% 259 3116 Animal Slaughtering and Processing 185 0.29 18.2% 29 6211 Offices of Physicians 3,759 1.15 15.2% 420 7139 Other Amusement and Recreation Industries 1,593 1.00 14.6% 181 4471 Gasoline Stations 1,191 1.02 14.4% 144 4539 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers 480 1.18 13.0% 52 6116 Other Schools and Instruction 313 0.63 10.6% 20 4431 Electronics and Appliance Stores 782 1.17 10.2% 75 3231 Printing and Related Support Activities 428 0.74 9.3% 51 2382 Building Equipment Contractors 2,251 0.90 7.6% 158 5411 Legal Services 1,104 0.76 6.0% 65 3327 Machine Shops; Turned Product; and Screw, Nut, and Bolt Manu 328 0.69 5.6% 16 6242 Community Food and Housing, and Emergency and Other Relief 233 1.15 4.8% 9 4461 Health and Personal Care Stores 896 0.67 4.6% 37 4841 General Freight Trucking 995 0.77 4.4% 41 Source: Business Oregon; data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oregon Employment Department, and U.S. Census Bureau. Page 15 of 17

Employment Projections by Industry Total private sector payroll employment is projected to grow by 21,500 jobs between 2014 and 2024, an 11 percent increase. This is less than the projected statewide growth rate of 16 percent. Construction, health care, and professional and business services are projected to experience the greatest percent increases in employment. Health care, professional and business services, and manufacturing are projected to experience the greatest absolute increases in jobs. Manufacturing employment in the region is projected to increase 9 percent, less than the 12 percent statewide projection. Page 16 of 17

Table 9: Regional Industry Employment Forecast, 2014-2024 Linn, Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties Includes Linn County due to OED regional groupings 2014 2024 Change % Change Total employment 251,700 276,300 24,600 10% Total payroll employment 238,700 261,700 23,000 10% Total private 187,100 208,600 21,500 11% Natural resources and mining 17,800 19,700 1,900 11% Mining and logging 1,800 1,700-100 -6% Construction 11,300 13,400 2,100 19% Manufacturing 25,800 28,000 2,200 9% Durable goods 14,500 15,900 1,400 10% Wood product manufacturing 3,500 4,100 600 17% Nondurable goods 11,300 12,100 800 7% Food manufacturing 6,300 6,800 500 8% Trade, transportation, and utilities 38,300 41,500 3,200 8% Wholesale trade 5,800 6,200 400 7% Retail trade 25,400 27,500 2,100 8% Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 7,100 7,800 700 10% Information 1,600 1,600 0 0% Financial activities 10,000 10,500 500 5% Professional and business services 17,400 20,300 2,900 17% Administrative and support services 9,200 10,900 1,700 18% Private educational and health services 36,200 41,800 5,600 15% Health care and social assistance 29,400 34,600 5,200 18% Health care 25,000 29,600 4,600 18% Leisure and hospitality 19,800 21,600 1,800 9% Accommodation and food services 17,400 19,100 1,700 10% Accommodation 1,400 1,500 100 7% Other services and private households 8,900 10,200 1,300 15% Government 51,600 53,100 1,500 3% Federal government 2,100 2,000-100 -5% Federal post office 800 700-100 -13% State government 23,600 24,600 1,000 4% State education 1,600 1,600 0 0% Local government 25,900 26,500 600 2% Local education 14,100 14,400 300 2% Self-employment 13,000 14,600 1,600 12% Source: Oregon Employment Department Page 17 of 17