Education, training and skills: Forecasting skills supply and demand by 2020 Peter Szovics Cedefop 1
Figures to think about 74.1 million low-skilled in Europe (2010Q2) Only 9.3 % of adults participate in LLL (2009) 14.4 % represents early school leavers (2009) Around 3.3 million vacancies not filled in 2010Q2 (although 23 million unemployed) Unemployment rate, EU 27: 9.8 %, September 2010 2
What might the future look like? 2020 skills race? a new focus on skills and employment policy based on anticipation, matching skills with jobs EU 2020 Youth on the move Early school leavers under 10 % and 40 % of younger generation should have tertiary degree An agenda for new skills and jobs employment rate at least 75 % (Employment guidelines) ET 2020 A new impetus for European cooperation in VET 3
Interaction of skills with jobs Labour supply Labour demand Consumer demand Demographic change population unemployed employed vacancies Technological change EQF, Europass, ECTS, ECVET, EQARF, ESCO, Sector councils Environmental change Regulation and governance Globalisation 4
European skills observatory new model Supplying the right skills that are needed Ensuring skills created get used High and intermediate skills and jobs boost economic growth Forecasting (macro trends) Employers survey Sectoral studies (green skills) Matching 5
Framework for demand and supply of skills Supply of skills Module 5: Stocks of people by qualifications, (QMOD) Module 6: Flows and graduate numbers, (FlowMOD) Population/Labour Force by ISCED category Module 1: E3ME Employment Module 4: Replacement demand by occupation / qualification (RDMOD) Job openings by ISCED category Demand for skills Module 2: Expansion Demand by occupation (EDMOD) Module 3: Expansion Demand by qualification (QMOD) Module 7: Imbalances (Supply-Demand), 3 ISCED levels (BALMOD) 6
On the way to recovery Million jobs 245 Scenarios on the employment impact of the recession (EU-27 + NO and CH) 240 No recession scenario 235 Current baseline scenario - 5 million 230-7 million (job losses in 2008-09) - 10 million + 7 million additional jobs 225 220 215 By 2020: 80 million job opportunities (7 million additional jobs + 73 million jobs due to replacements) 210 205 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Cedefop 2010 7
Continuing trend towards a service economy Employment by industry 2000-2020 (EU-27 + NO and CH) Million jobs 70 60 50 Distribution & transport Business & other services 40 Non-marketed services 30 Manufacturing 20 Construction 10 0 Primary sector & utilities 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Cedefop 2010 8
Knowledge- and skills-intensive intensive jobs on the rise Changing occupational structure 1990-2020 (EU-27 + NO and CH) Plant; machine operators and assemblers Elementary occupations Legislators, senior officials and managers 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Professionals Technicians and associate professionals Craft and related trades workers Clerks 1990 2000 2010 2020 Skilled agricultural and fishery workers Service workers; shop and market sales workers Source: Cedefop 2010 9
More workers with better qualifications Supply trends 2000-2020: Labour force by qualification (EU-27 + NO and CH) Million people 300 250 High qualification Medium qualification Low qualification 200 21 % 28 % 35 % 150 48 % 50 % 100 50 % 50 31 % 22 % 15 % 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: Cedefop 2010 NB: Labour force aged 15 years and older Forecast 10
Early warning: potential skill mismatch Net demand change by occupations and qualifications 2010-2020 (EU-27 + NO and CH) High-skilled non-manual occupations 2.4 6.2 Skilled non-manual occupations -2.1 0.5 2.6 Skilled manual occupations -4.2-0.7 0.6 Low qualification Medium qualification High qualification Elementary occupations -1.0 2.4 0.7 Source: Cedefop 2010-6 -4-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Million jobs 11
Key findings Employment in 2020: 235 million (~ pre-crisis peak, 2008) 7 million new jobs + 73 million jobs due to replacements Jobs becoming more knowledge- and skills-intensive Impact of globalisation and technological change: sectoral employment structure demand for new and different types of skills Jobs employing highly qualified people: > 1/3 Jobs requiring medium-level qualifications: ~ 1 in 2 12
Implications for policies Adaptation of workforce and their skills to new requirements and structural change retraining, active LM measures, up- and re-skilling Prevention of skill mismatch lower drop-out rates, guidance and counselling, social policies, migration, recognition of non-formal & informal learning, learning outcome approach INVOLVEMENT OF STAKEHOLDERS AND SOCIAL PARTNERS 13
Demand and Supply trends in Portugal, 2000-2020 upskilling 14
Employment levels by occupations in Portugal, 2010 and 2020 (000s) job polarisation 15
Thank you! Contact details for more information Cedefop: www.cedefop.europa.eu skills-analysis@cedefop.europa.eu 16