Building together the workforce of today and tomorrow Loukas Zahilas Cedefop 18 June 1
Challenges and goals: being responsive to the crisis and thinking ahead Short term goals: widen and upgrade skills while retaining people in jobs for recovery meet current skills shortages in other jobs/sectors supplement and support work-based learning Strengths: flexible labour market (short-time work) + VET have cushioned impact on employment more attention to CVT, i.e. on adults, more recognition of non-formal learning push effect on partnership and joint policies VET becoming more popular in some countries Risks: disadvantaged at the end of the queue; high youth unemployment, long-term unemployed, low-skilled fail to notice accelerated change in composition of jobs, skill needs and supply 18 June 2
Thinking beyond recovery Changes in population and labour force by age, -2020 (EU-27 + NO and CH) Millions 8 7.6 50+: from 1/3 in 2007 to nearly 1/2 of the population in 2020: highest share of low-qualified 6 4 2 0 Population Labour Force 1.3 1.1 5.1 40+: highest share of medium-level qualifications Young people: more highly qualified than ever; but still too many leaving education & training early Women: better qualified than men, still lower activity rates People with migrant background: low qualifications & employment but also unrecognised skills Skill mismatches & imbalances Labour force and 2020 by age, gender and qualification (EU-27 + NO and CH) Low qualification Males Females 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 18 June 3-2 -4-6 -8 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Millions 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020-6.4 Source: Cedefop -3.1-2.9-2.0-2.5 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 -1.8 Medium qualification Males Females 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 High qualification Males Females 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 Source: Cedefop
Towards knowledge- and skills-intensive intensive jobs Routine jobs and those replaceable by technologies or moving to low wage countries are on decline Plant; machine operators and assemblers Elementary occupations Legislators, senior officials and managers 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Professionals Technicians and associate professionals High share of innovative and creative occupations for professionals, technicians and service workers Craft and related trades workers Clerks 2020 1990 Source: Cedefop Skilled agricultural and fishery workers Service workers; shop and market sales workers 18 June 4
250 200 150 100 50 0 Qualification demands are rising Low qualifications Medium qualifications High qualifications >1/3 jobs for high-level qualified people 1 ìn 2 jobs for medium-level qualified 22% 29% 35% 49% 50% 50% 29% 21% 15% Source: Cedefop, 18 June 5 Million jobs 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
80 million job opportunities by 2020 More jobs for the better qualified Job opportunities -2020 change by occupational groups EU27+NO&CH Change in occupational groups -2020 by qualifications Legislators, senior officials, managers Professionals Technicians, associate professionals Clerks Service workers, shop and market sales workers Skilled agricultural & fishery workers Craft & related trades workers Plant & machine operators, assemblers Elementary occupations -2 3 8 13 millions Total job openings Replacement demand Expansion demand -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 millions low qualification medium qualification high qualification 18 June 6 Source: Cedefop
Skill needs in the printing and publishing sector (EU27+2) 18 June 7
Most of 2020 workforce already in work: time to make a case for skills Participation in LLL still below 10% Less than 4% of the 78 million low-qualified in LLL Most of the learning of employed people is non-formal % 90 80 70 60 Formal education and training Non-formal education and training 50 40 30 20 10 0 SE FI DE SK NL BG EE UK CY AT CZ SI BE FR EU27 LT LV ES PT IT PL GR HU Note: Data source is Adult Education Survey, 2007 For FR, SI data are provisional. Data source: Eurostat Percentage of employed population aged 25 to 64 participating in formal and non-formal education and training Up- and reskilling not only for young people, but for all, employed and unemployed, women and men, employees and managers 18 June 8
Skills strategies to drive growth and inclusion 18 June 9
Improve matching of skills and jobs Anticipating skill needs and understanding composition of jobs and skills (e.g. greening skills) Labour market intelligence, information and guidance Defining a language common to work and education/training: focus on learning outcomes and task description Adapting standards and curricula Better skill mix: key competences + transferable occupational + specialised skills more focus on intrapreneurship/capacity to manage change combining skills from different occupational areas Setting strategic skills policies at macro and micro-level Making better use of people s skills Raising awareness of citizens and employers VET s benefits 18 June 10
Flexible routes to skills and competences Access, progression and qualifications through several routes: less linear approach to learning recognition Breaking barriers for vertical and horizontal educational and occupational mobility: VET HE, parity of esteem Quality assurance and trust Individualised learning paths, documentation of learning outcomes, competence-based assessment (formative, summative), guidance Shaping conducive learning environments: content, methods educational leadership, role of teachers and trainers, motivation learners as co-creators of the learning process Use of European tools: EQF, Europass, ECVET, ECTS 18 June 11
Meeting the goals through partnerships Consistent cooperation between VET providers and enterprises Wider partnerships: VET providers, HE providers, social partners, guidance, employment & support services; accreditation bodies Complementarity between central and regional/local authorities Shared responsibility of governments, employers and individuals Better links, coherence and synergy between education and training, employment, social and economic policies and tools New framework & objectives: EUROPE 2020, Education & training 2020, VET communication, Bruges Communiqué VET for excellence and inclusion 18 June 12
European education & training and working area Lissabon Strategy 2000-10 Education & training work programme VET higher on policy agenda Common tools & instruments: main success Learning outcomes since 2002 enhanced cooperation in VET Different systems common objectives Taking stock ECVET EQF NQF National VET reforms Ownership Involving social partners Peer learning Validiation 18 June 13 QA
Thank you for your attention Cedefop s reports on Skills supply and demand available on http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/en/files/3052_en.pdf Update on qualifications framework developments available soon Skills for green jobs (in cooperation with ILO) in summer VET policies (Copenhagen process) will be presented in Dec. www.cedefop.europa.eu 18 June 14