Scenarios for future emissions of air pollutants in China

TF HTAP / TFIAM Workshop on Global Emissions Scenarios to 2050 Scenarios for future emissions of air pollutants in China Shuxiao Wang IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria February 12, 2015

Outline Introduction of THU emission scenarios Comparison with CLE & NFC scenarios Implementation of additional control measures Uncertainties in the future projections Available information on costs for control measures

Introduction of scenario design Timeline: 2020, 2030 Pollutants: SO 2, NOx, PM, OC, BC, NMVOCs, NH 3 Scenarios Energy strategy End-of-pipe Control Strategy Business as usual (BAU) End-of-pipe control (EOP) Alternative energy policy + End of pipe control (ENE+EOP) Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) Current legislation and enforcement (as of the end of 2010) Current legislation and enforcement (as of the end of 2010) New energy-saving policies are released and enforced more stringently New energy-saving policies are released and enforced more stringently Current legislation and enforcement (as of the end of 2010) New pollution control policies are implemented, representing progressive approach towards future environmental policies Same as EOP Technically feasible control technologies would be fully applied by 2030

China s emissions under different scenarios NOx 36% -39% -56% -72% BAU EOP ENE+EOP MFR 26% -25% SO 2-53% -66% Wang, S. X., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2014 BAU EOP ENE+EOP MFR

China s emissions under different scenarios -8% -38% PM 2.5-57% -79% BAU EOP ENE+EOP MFR NMVOC 27% -11% -27% -55% Wang, S. X., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2014 BAU EOP ENE+EOP MFR

Comparison with NFC & CLE scenarios 40,000 SO2 40,000 NO X 35,000 35,000 Emissions/kt 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 IIASA-NFC IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU Thu-EOP Emissions/kt 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Total emission control plan since 2011 IIASA-NFC IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU Thu-EOP 5,000 5,000 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 18,000 PM 2.5 2,500 BC Emissions/kt 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 IIASA-NFC IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU Thu-EOP Emissions/kt 2,000 1,500 1,000 IIASA-NFC IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU Thu-EOP 4,000 500 2,000 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 0 2005 2010 2020 2030

Emission by sector: Power plant Energy technology 2005 2010 Grate boilers 8% 1% Pulverized coal combustion Fluidized bed combustion 85% 91% 7% 8% Control technology 2005 2010 CYC (PM) 12 12 WET (PM) 88 88 WET (PM) 8 0 ESP (PM) 92 93 HED (PM) 0 7 Implementation of new emission standard WET (PM) 8 0 ESP (PM) 92 100

Emission by sector: Transportation

Emission by sector: Industry New emission standards released after 2010 Different BC/PM2.5 New emission standards released after 2010 New emission standards released after 2010

Emission by sector: Residential 5,000 SO 2 1,600 NO X Emissions/kt 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU Emissions/kt 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 7,000 PM 2.5 1,400 BC 6,000 1,200 Emissions/kt 5,000 Coal consumption, 4,000 2010 2030 3,000 IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU Emissions/kt 1,000 Biofuel consumption, 800 2010 2030 600 IIASA-CLE Thu-BAU 2,000 CLE: reduce 29.1% 1,000 400 CLE: reduce 50.5% 200 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 BAU: increase 38.6% 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 BAU: reduce 37.1%

Power generation technologies MFR: aggressive development of non-fossil power, retirement of small coalfired power plants, and promotion of advanced coal-fired power. 35% 20% 45% 2005 2010 2020 2030 2020 2030 THU-BAU THU-MFR Share of power generation technologies

Technologies for industry Industry Technology 2005 2010 BAU MFR 2020 2030 2020 2030 Crude steel Arc furnace 11.8 11.2 14.0 18.0 25.0 40.0 Cement industry Share of energy-efficient production technologies Precalcined kiln<4000t/d Precalcined kiln>4000t/d 30.2 30.0 27.6 23.9 26.5 15.0 14.9 45.0 53.5 61.2 71.5 85.0 Glass production Float process 80.0 85.0 95.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Coke production Machine coke oven 81.9 87.0 96.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Caustic soda Ion-exchange production membrane process 34.0 57.0 67.0 75.0 80.0 98.0 Soda production Combined-soda process 39.5 42.0 45.0 48.0 49.0 56.0 Nitric acid production Dual-pressure process 38.0 54.0 67.0 80.0 75.0 95.0 Industrial boiler CFB 10.0 11.0 15.0 18.0 19.0 25.0

End-of-pipe control for power & industry Coal-fired power plants Precalcined cement kiln 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% LNB+SCR LNB+SNCR LNB 70% 60% 50% 40% LNB+SCR LNB+SNCR LNB 30% 20% NOC 30% 20% NOC 10% 10% 0% 0% THU-MFR THU-MFR Industrial process Glass production Brick production Control technology Base year MFR 2005 2010 2030 CYC 5 0 0 WET 25 20 0 ESP 68 75 0 HED 3 5 100 CYC 40 30 0 WET 8 20 0 ESP 0 20 0 HED 0 0 100

Transportation sector BAU MFR

Cooking and hot water in residential sector 2005 2010 2020 2030 2020 2030 2005 2010 2020 2030 2020 2030 Urban THU-BAUTHU-MFR Rural THU-BAUTHU-MFR Energy tech. Control technology Base year MFR 2005 2010 2030 CYC (PM) 23 14 0 Residential boilers WET (PM) 63 78 50 HED (PM) 0 0 50 Briquette utilization (SO 2 ) 0 0 100 Coal stoves advanced coal stove 0 0 100 Biomass stoves advanced biomass stove 0 0 50 Biomass pellet stove 0 0 50

Uncertainty of the GDP growth rate If the GDP growth rate was one percent higher (HGDP) or one percent lower (LGDP), the total NO X emissions will be 7.5%-9.0% higher (or lower) than the corresponding scenarios.

High uncertainty in energy consumption 210 180 150 120 90 60 other renewable hydro nuclear oil&gas coal 30 0 2020 2030 2050 THU-BAU THU-MFR Chinese Academy of Engineer, 2011 BAU Coal Other renewable & nuclear 2020 63% 8.3% 2030 60% 8.9% MFR 2030 52% 15.8% Coal Oil & gas other renewable & nuclear 2020 57% 27% 9% 2030 45% 28% 19% 2050 33% 26% 32% By 2050, the non-fossil energy will account for 66% of total energy. (China Energy Research Institute, 2014)

Impacts of policy enforcement failure 13%-29% higher If the control of heavy-duty diesel vehicle failed (HDF), i.e. the NO X removal rates of Euro Ⅳ, Euro Ⅴ, and Euro Ⅵ were assumed to be 50%, 50%, and 75% respectively, NOx emissions would be 13-29% higher 1.2%-29% higher If 25% of the installed SCR system were not actually effectively operated in power plants, NOx emissions would be 1.2-29% higher.

Available cost information in China Energy technology/industrial process Control technology Power plant China local data Local data Transport China local data Euro I-IV:Local data Euro V-VI:European data Industry Residential Steel, cement, glass, brick: Local data Other industries: adapted from foreign data or estimated Expert estimates Steel, cement: Local data Other industries: adapted from foreign data or estimated Estimated from similar technologies in the industrial sector

Available cost information in China Available at http://abacas-dss.com/abacas/abacassystem.aspx

Thanks for your attention!

Policies considered in the reference scenario Energy saving policies: GDP per capita should be over 20,000 USD (at 2005 price) National Population Development Strategy CO 2 intensity would be 40%-45% lower in 2020 than that of 2005 Medium and Long Term Development Plan for Renewable Energy Medium and Long Term Development Plan for Nuclear Power Special Plan for Medium and Long Term Energy Conservation National Natural Gas Utilization Policy The Residential Target for Building a Well-off Society Limits of Fuel Consumption for Passenger Vehicles (Stage I, II) Limits of Fuel Consumption for Light Duty Commercial Vehicles (Stage I, II) Pollution control legislation: Integrated Emission Standard ofair pollutants (GB16297-1996) Emission Standard ofair Pollutants for Thermal Power Plants (GB13223-2003) Emission Standard of Air Pollutants for Cement Industry (GB4915-2004) Emission Standard of Air Pollutants for Industrial Kiln and Furnace (GB9078-1996) Emission Standard of Air Pollutants for Coal-burning Oil-burning Gas-burning boilers (GB13271-2001) Vehicle Emission Standards (Stage I-IV for light duty vehicles; Stage I-V for heavy duty diesel vehicles; Stage I-II for motorcycles; Stage I-II for non-road mobile machine) Emission standard of air pollutant for bulk gasoline terminals, gasoline transport, and gasoline terminals (GB20950-2007, GB20951-2007, GB20952-2007) Limit of harmful substances of adhesives, interior architectural coatings, and solvent coatings for woodenware (GB18581-2009, GB18582-2008, GB18583-2008)

Driving forces and service demand Items 2005 2010 2020 2030 GDP (2005 price)/10 9 CHY 18322 31165 65741 117718 Population/billion 1.306 1.340 1.440 1.474 Urbanization rate/% 43.0 49.7 58.0 63.0 Power generation/twh 2500 4205 6690 8506 Share of coal-fired power generation/% 77 75 74 73 Thermal efficiency of coal-fired power plants/% 31.5 35.7 38.0 40.0 Crude steel production/mt 353 627 710 680 Cement production/mt 1069 1880 2001 2050 Urban residential building area per capita/m 2 19.2 23.0 29.0 33.0 Rural residential building area per capita/m 2 29.7 34.1 39.0 42.0 Vehicle population per 1000 persons 24.0 58.2 191.2 380.2 Share of new and renewable energy/% a 6.4 7.5 8.3 8.9 CO 2 emission per GDP/(t/10 6 CHY) 322 267 182 120 a including hydro power, solar energy, wind energy, ocean energy, and nuclear energy; excluding biomass.

Emission by sector: Industry

Projection of the energy consumptions BAU EOP ENE+EOP MFR BAU EOP ENE+EOP MFR Industry Transportation Coal Other renewable & nuclear 2010 58.2 11.0 2010 82.9 9.2 BAU EOP 2020 73.6 22.9 2030 81.7 33.0 BAU EOP 2020 106.8 14.0 2030 118.8 17.7 ENE+EOP MFR 2020 62.8 20.0 2030 66.5 22.1 ENE+EOP MFR 2020 83.8 17.2 2030 80.3 24.5