Takahisa Yokoyama Canon Institute of Global Studies CIGS symposium 11th December 2013 Framework of Strengthened Bilateral Mechanism for Low-carbon Technology Transfer 1
Establishing bilateral architecture Key points: Strong coordination is necessary: To make low-carbonization shown in Z650 scenario to happen in developing countries, an architecture to support national climate policy in developing countries is essential through establishing strong coordination between developing countries and industrialized countries. Particularly in building a large-scale energy infrastructure with long-term financial support. (GRAPE analysis) UNFCCC process is slow : However, UNFCCC process is slow in time-scale to deal with the climate change and the world may need well coordinated actions to supplement the UNFCCC mechanism urgently.
AWG-KP Kyoto Protocol CDM (JI) UNFCCC s approaches on Mitigation & Adaptation UNFCCC AWG-LCA Copenhagen Accord Cancun Agreement Durban Agreement AWG-Durban Platform for Enhanced Action Approaches: - Kyoto protocol - NAMAs - Various approaches - Adaptation Committee - Green Climate Fund: - MRV for Mitigation Action - Registry for NAMAs - Technology mechanism - Climate technology centre & network - Standing committee on finance Uncertainty in the UNFCCC approaches Potential for GHGs emissions reduction, financial assistance, technology transfer & deployment, time-scale & etc Agreed in 2015: come into effect and implemented from 2020 A protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties(para2, 1/CP.17) 3
Fundamental policy of the Action Plan Government initiatives: enhance coordination for technology transfer based on bilateral action plan. Top down approach may lead the way to deployment of low carbon dioxide emission technology and their diffusion to regions Technology- centered policy approach : Technology will be major part of solution. Appropriate technologies, which meet certain technology performance standards, should be adopted Finance : provide a technology fund through international fund body, guaranteed by government of industrialized country. Existing Finance Institutions (JICA, AFB, KfW etc) are important channels and they have generated significant amount of climate change financial flows (2009 UNEP); or newly established international body provided by developed country, but specific to technology transfer. Simplified MRV: emission reductions by third party auditing such as ISO. 4
Bilateral agreement for International coordination Industrialized country Bilateral agreement Developing country Plat form coordinating technology transfer & finance <technology standard, regulation, IPR> International technology funds National communication reports Project/program Registry MRV(third party auditing ) government initiative setting technology performance standard long-term partnership investment guarantee promote technology deployment across the country 5
Focusing on the Rest of Asia 6
20000 15000 10000 5000 Energy demand by region - BAU - 0 Mtoe 2010 2030 2050 Other Asia India China Japan EU15 USA Others Energy demand in the rest of Asia is glowing beyond EU15 in 2030. (The rest of Asia)
Emission (Gt CO2) Contribution to global CO2 emission reduction by region under Z650 scenario 58 53 48 43 38 33 28 23 18 BAU 54Gt Z650 19Gt 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 China 31% India 13% 8% The Rest of Asia Other Developing 16% USA 14% EU15 5% Japan 1% Other Industrialized 11% Contributions of developing countries share more than 70% of the global emission reduction. 8
Emission (Gt CO2) Sector s contribution to CO2 emission reduction in the Rest of Asia 6 5 4 3 BAU 5.4Gt Z650 2.8 Gt 2 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Reduction rate in 2050 Energy Saving Power Generation Energy conservation Power generation Transportation Stationary CCS Transportation Stationary CCS 20 49 14 11 6 Power sector is the largest contributor to CO2 emission reductions. 9
Key technologies toward low carbon emission power generation Key technologies before 2030 are high-efficiency fossil-fired power. Toward 2050 key technologies are renewables & nuclear power. Fossil-fired power still plays a major role. 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 TWh 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 fossil fuel nuclear renewables
6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Low carbon technologies for power sector A mix of nuclear, renewables, and fossil-fuel with CCS will be needed 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 - Medium term : reduce coal share of fuel mix, incorporate natural gas, LWR & wind power into power sources - Short term : clean coal technology (minimum fuel consumption & environmental burden ) solarpv wind biomass hydro FBR LWR hydrogen natural gas+ccs natural gas oil coal - Long term : increase LWR & wind power, incorporate FBR, PV into power sources natural gas combined with CCS
Additional investment more than pays for itself in the form of fuel saving worth of USD 3.5 trillion. Cost and Benefit (2010-2040) Differences from REF Scenario 4 3 2 Trillion USD However, share of additional investment in GDP (0.29%) in the rest of Asia is anticipated higher than in developed countries: China 0.20%; India 0.49%; US 0.14%; EU 0.11%; JPN 0.05% 1 0 JPN US EU15 CHN IND Rest Less burden on GDP of Asia Additional Investment Fuel Saving 12
Example of technology needs in Indonesia (excerpt) High Efficiency Power Generation: Clean Coal Technology, CHP Technology, etc. Energy Efficiency in Industrial sector (cement, iron & steel, pulp & paper, fertilizer, textile, mining, lime calcination, chemical, etc.) Energy Efficiency in Industrial Equipments (Industrial process, electrical motor, boiler, compressor, furnace, Refrigeration, heater, room conditioning, cooling tower, electrical system, combustion, pump, lighting, steam distribution, waste heat recovery, etc. Energy consumption efficiency in transportation including using gas for vehicles including improvement of public transportation Carbon Capture Sequestration (CCS) Renewable Energy: Biomass, Wind, Solar, Ocean, Geothermal, Hydro electric, etc. Climate modification technology LESSONS LEARNED & BEST PRACTICE OF TNAs IN INDONESIA NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE Workshop on sharing best practices with conducting TNAs Bangkok, Thailand, 27-29 June 2007
Example of Strengthened Bilateral Mechanism Action Plan on Climate Change Plus (scope: power generation) Outline: Agreement to make power generation more clean and effective and reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from the power sector with actions to: 1) strengthen national policy on improvement of energy efficiency of power plants and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from power plants through setting technology performance standards 2) improve the environmental performance of power plants as a whole to reduce regional environmental pollutions 3) strengthen building and integration and management of the country s electricity grids 4) make power generation infrastructure climate-friendly including renewable energy infrastructure 5) continue deployment of high-efficiency power generation across the country
Transfer of Clean Coal Technology fuel consumption minimum + environmental burden minimum Lower carbon dioxide emissions Coal-fired (conventional) Plus environment integrity Coal-fired (higher efficiency) +better environment control (NOx, SO2,PM, Hg) +byproduct utilization (construction material, fertilizer, etc)
We are ready.japan s expertise on RD&D of high-energy efficiency power generation Coal Super critical Ultra SC 41-43% Advanced- USC 50% Existing technology Emerging technology LNG Combined cycle 1100 43% 1350 50% 1500 52% 1600 54% 1700 C CC 57% IGCC IGCC 1200 C 42% IGCC 1300 C 43% IGCC 1500 C 48% IGCC 1500 C 50% Fuel cell IGCC: Integrated Coal gasification Combined cycle IGFC: Integrated Coal Gasification Fuel Cell MCFC: Molten carbonate Fuel Cell SOFC: Solid oxide fuel cell LNG-MCFC >55% LNG-SOFC >55% IGFC >55% By METI etc 16
Thank you!