From the experienced team of analysts that brought you the highly acclaimed Steel and its raw materials in 2005 Revised & Updated for 2008 Steeland its Raw Materials A Global Market Outlook to 2020 A long-term strategic study, available in two interdependent volumes Volume 1: A Strategic Outlook for the Steel Industry to 2020 Volume 2: A Strategic Outlook for the Steel Raw Material Industry to 2020 Includes an interactive CD-ROM consumption forecast model by product and region Includes key company coverage and data for over 75 steel companies worldwide I would positively recommend Metal Bulletin Research as a unique provider of steel and its raw materials market analysis and forecasts Michael Amez, Manager, A.T. Kearney, USA www.metalbulletinresearch.com marketing@metalbulletinresearch.com +44 (0) 20 7779 7999
Is the global steel industry still poised for sustained profitability? Acommon theme surrounding the global steel industry in recent years has been a robust longterm outlook for steel demand from the emerging economies, and constraints on supply growth for both steel production and its raw materials. The prices of coking coal, iron ore, energy and scrap have rocketed to unprecedented highs culminating in steel prices breaking the $1,000/tonne barrier. However, is the industry still poised for sustained profitability, strengthened by industrial consolidation, or is a turning point in the current super-cycle to be expected led by over-capacity and the subsequent fall in prices? This 400 page report published by Metal Bulletin Research (MBR) provides a detailed and authoritative analysis of past trends and forecasts to 2012 and further out to 2020 for the complete supply chain of the world steel industry for all the key products and sectors: World steel demand by region and end-user sector The world steel industry by region: structure, capacity, costs, the leading steel companies and their strategies The demand and supply of raw materials, energy and sea freight This report is presented in two volumes: Volume 1: Volume 2: Global steel consumption Global steel production and raw materials supply The report includes a CD-ROM which contains the interactive spreadsheet-based forecasting model. This takes regional GDP, investment and trade forecasts and calculates forecasts of steel consumption by product, steel production by process route and region, and raw materials requirements. Order both volumes and save 1/3 off the full price! See back page for details 2
Key areas this major study addresses include: How long will the steel and raw material price boom continue for? When, if at all, can we expect a severe market down-turn? Is the industry poised for sustained profitability or can we expect a turning point in the current super-cycle resulting from over-capacity and leading to dramatic falls in steel prices? Will there be an impending steel crisis in China s domestic market? To what degree will the global credit crunch affect global steel consumption? What are the trends for regional consumption by production route, consumption per capita and steel intensity forecasts for the medium term period to 2012, and a longer term outlook to 2020? Which steel end-user sectors are growing and which are declining? Raw materials and energy prices have followed steel prices in their upward climb. The former due to shortages in the mines and the transport chain serving them, the latter due to high oil prices and eventually to environmental penalties associated with combating climate change. Are these temporary phenomena or will they be part of the steel landscape for future years? Where are prices for iron ore, scrap, coking coal, coke and freight heading? How and why will climate change and emissions policies have a fundamental impact on steel production costs, competitiveness and the location of steelmaking? How are new steel technologies and management processes responding to the new economics of raw materials and climate change. Where should new steel capacity be built and for which products? What are the problems facing Japan, S Korea and Taiwan, and why do their steel industries face decline? What strategies are the traditional industries of North America and Europe adopting to face new and emerging threats and challenges? Key features included in this report: 400 pages, 450 tables and charts and a 5,000 line interactive Excel consumption forecast model by product and region, access to analysts and spreadsheets 3
An in-depth strategic study on the global steel & raw materials industry available in two interdependent volumes Volume 1: A Strategic Outlook for the Steel Industry to 2020 Reviews of regional steel consumption trends Analysis of steel trade trends, capacity changes and company strategies Regional review of macroeconomic trends: investment, industry, etc. 2007 Apparent consumption, trade, production by region and product The prospects of the key steel consuming sectors: construction, engineering, automotive, pipelines etc. by region and globally The relationship between steel demand and the wider economy Steel consumption by region and major product group to 2012 & 2020 Billets & blooms Slabs Plate HR coil and sheets CR coil and sheets Galvanised coil and sheets Tin mill products Rail and heavy sections Rebar and wire rods Other sections and bars Volume 2: A Strategic Outlook for the Steel Raw Material Industry to 2020 Technology and raw materials trends Environmental issues Competitive advantage and likely future trade patterns Supply and demand balance Operating costs Steel production by region and process route 2007, 2012, & 2020 Raw materials requirements to 2012 & 2020 Scrap DRI Iron Ore Sea Transport Coal Energy 4
Volume 1 A Strategic Outlook for the Steel Industry to 2020 The prospects for key steel consuming sectors Steel usage trends Global business environment The growth and stagnant sectors from a steel perspective Detailed analysis and forecasts of steel use by the major user industries worldwide Individual chapters providing detailed analysis and statistics for: Construction; Automotive; Shipbuilding; Railway equipment; Domestic appliances; Packaging; Pipelines and OCTG; Plant and machinery Steel product demand and supply trends by major world regions Regional analysis and forecasting of economic, production and consumption forecasts for each major steel product Strengths and weaknesses of each region Forecasting methodology Key consumer sector trends by region Trends in steel production, consumption and trade out to 2020, and the regional product mix Steel company consolidation trends, capacity data, new investment and strategy analysis for the major steel companies in each region Greenfield/brownfield capacity additions in each region Statistical databank Detailed historical and forecast statistical tables and analysis of production, trade and consumption for 2008-2020: by major country/region by each steel product including slabs, billets, plate, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil, plate, galvanised, tinplate, heavy sections/rails, reinforcement bar and products, other long products Price analysis, forecasts and strategy implications Detailed analysis and forecasts of steel product prices Relationship between prices and costs Margin analysis Scenario analysis and strategy conclusions Individual chapters for: China; South Asia; Industrial Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan); SE Asia; the Commonwealth of Independent States; Europe; North America; South and Central America; Middle East/North Africa; Africa; Australasia Key products featured: Billets & blooms, Slabs, Plate, HR coil and sheets, CR coil and sheets, Galvanised coil and sheets, Tin mill products, Rail and heavy sections, Rebar and wire rods, Other sections and bars Key company data for over 75 companies, covering the majority of steel production in each world region. Includes: ArcelorMittal, ThyssenKrupp, Riva, Salzgitter, Voestalpine, US Steel, Nucor, Baosteel, Posco, SAIL, Tata Steel, Gerdau, Magnitogorsk, Severstal, Bluescope, JFE, Nippon Steel, Erdemir and many more 5
Volume 2 A Strategic Outlook for the Steel Raw Material Industry to 2020 Crude steel production and raw materials demand analysis Global production by process route Regional costs and comparative advantage analysis in steelmaking affecting location and choice of process route The impact of climate change and emissions control on future steelmaking Location of steelmaking and the trade in semis Steel raw materials and the supply chain Supply and demand analysis and forecasts for: ferrous scrap, iron ore; metallics (scrap, DRI/HBI, pig iron); coke and coking coal markets The ferrous scrap market Types of scrap collection and distribution, how the price is fixed Scrap generation by region The elasticity of scrap supply with respect to price Trends in scrap trade Legislative/recycling issues DRI/HBI and pig iron The growth of DRI and pig iron Supply and demand analysis of production, consumption and trade and price trends Technical and cost developments Iron ore supply How prices are fixed and future contract/spot trends Trends in supplying countries, the main companies and their strategies Concentration and market dominance, profits in ore and steel Trends in the use of pellets, lump and sinter - the factors affecting choice The politics of the iron ore business and the future role of China The supply of coal and coke Blast furnace practices and future coal and coke requirements Coke production and trade future trends The main suppliers of metallurgical coal and their strategies Price setting differentials between steam and metallurgical coal Transportation The method of transportation Trends in freight rates and their impact on steel trade Futures market and price trends in bulk freight rates The implications for steel makers Environmental/technical changes Environmental impact reduction: greenhouse gas emissions by process route and alternatives Cost reduction measures: the scope for steel production performance improvement in existing plants Cost reduction: the introduction of new steel technologies Relative cost of different steelmaking routes Cost modelling utilising differing assumptions on process routes Relating analysis to actual regional differences in steelmaking costs The impact of technology Impact on future costs, given possible and likely changes in raw material, energy and transport costs Forecast supply, demand balances and price analysis Trade and production by region current patterns The issue of splitting steelmaking from rolling, and the future trade in semis The impact of changes in input and transport costs on steel production locations The demand and price dynamics for steel raw materials Key price and margin analysis and forecasts 6
Undeniably Metal Bulletin Research is an information provider throwing an objective light on often bifurcated information. Essential! Krista Van Bergen, SteelFORCE Asia NV The report is an indispensable tool for: CEOs, board members, strategic planners, marketing directors of steel companies and mining companies worldwide Investors, fund managers, and financiers of steel and mining projects Government policy makers and planners Steel traders Trade associations Consultants and market researchers Business schools Biographies Brian Levich Brian is MBR s Head of Research and specialises in the steel and raw material sectors. He has written numerous major studies on the steel industry and has conducted extensive consultancy and market research for a number of major steel producers, consumers, and financial institutions. Mike Mytton Mike is a renowned industry consultant and works in the areas of business planning, financial modelling, logistics and market studies. He has wide experience in Europe, CIS, Asia and Latin America carrying out feasibility studies, due diligence for banks and acting as an advisor in M&A activities. Stuart Reynolds Stuart is an industry economist who spent over 25 years with Atkins Management Consultants, carrying out steel investment, privatisation and restructuring plans worldwide, particularly in the EU and Central European regions and Asia, as well as industry strategy studies for engineering, construction and related sectors. Dr Philip Rogers Philip is an internationally recognised dry bulk shipping expert. As well as being Head of Research at leading shipbroking companies for the past 20 years he is also Professor and Dean of Copenhagen Business School s MBA in Shipping and Logistics. He has extensive practical experience including many years at sea serving on bulk carriers, tankers and general cargo ships. Order both volumes and save 1/3 off the full price! See back page for details Key features of this report include: 400 pages 450 tables and charts 5,000 line interactive Excel consumption forecast model by product and region Access to analysts Access to spreadsheets 7