Noé van Hulst Secretary General International Energy Forum
Outline Main Global Energy Trends Key Global Energy Challenges IEF Role in Energy Dialogue
Main Global Energy Trends World Energy Demand Grows Significantly Fossil Fuels Dominate the Energy Mix Increasing Interdependence
Key Global Energy Challenges Availability Oil & Gas Resources Deliverability Investment Affordability Oil Price Sustainability CO 2 Emissions
Proved Oil Reserves at end 2007 (1237.9 thousand million barrels) Canada USA 2.2% 2.4% Mexico & other L. America 3.0% Venezuela 7.0% Africa 9.5% W.Europe 1.9% Middle East: 61% of world total BP Statistical Review FSU 10.4% Iraq 9.3% Kuwait 8.2% Saudi Arabia 21.3% Iran 11.2% UAE 7.9% China 1.3% Indonesia 0.4% juin 2003 S205 Asia Pacific 1.6%
Oil Production Middle East - Below Potential (Reserves at end 2007, Production for 2007) BP Statistical Review Rank Country Reserves (Gbbl) Production (Mbd) World 1237.9 81.53 1 Saudi Arabia 264.2 10.41 2 Iran 138.4 4.40 3 Iraq 115.0 2.15 Middle East Volume Share Reserves 755.3 Gbbl 61.0 % Production 25.2 Mbd 30.8% Rank Imports from the Middle East Volume (Mbd) Share 1 Asia 13.3 62.7 % 2 Europe 3.0 21.2 % 3 USA 2.2 16.3 %
Spare Capacity An Important factor in Global Oil Supply Security August 2008 In addition IEA countries hold emergency oil reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net oil imports of the previous year. Global Oil Supply 86.8 mbd IEA Monthly Oil Market Report, September 2008 OPEC (Crude Oil) 32.6 mbd 9.5 mbd Spare Capacity 2.7 mbd 1.3 mbd Saudi Arabia (Crude Oil)
Natural Gas Production M.East - Below Potential (Reserves at end 2007 Production for 2007) Rank Country Reserves (tcm) Production (bcm) World 177.36 2940 1 Russia 44.65 607.4 2 Iran 27.8 111.9 3 Qatar 25.6 59.8 4 Saudi Arabia 7.17 75.9 5 UAE 6.09 49.2 BP Statistical Review Middle East (*) Volume Share (%) Reserves 73.21 tcm 41.3 % Production 355.8 bcm 12.1%
Cumulative Investment in Energy-Supply Infrastructure 2006 2030 ($ billion in Year 2006 dollars) 2968 Oil 246 $5 360 billion IEA WEO 2007 Reference Scenario 1377 769 OECD Transition Economies Developing Countries Inter-Regional Transport 1716 Gas 82 $4 229 billion 657 1774
Volatility of Spot Oil Prices Rolling Variance of Daily Spot Price of WTI Relative to the Mean of the Past 20 Days (month) 80 Standard deviation 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 01 Sep 08
Mission of IEF Enhance and deepen global consumer-producer dialogue High-level platforms involving governments and industry What? How? Promote more stable and transparent energy markets Practical ways to improve: Market transparency in oil & gas Investment conditions
Joint Oil Data Initiative Improve global oil market stability and predictability What? How? Support sound planning and enhance global energy security Enhance international oil market transparency through exchange and release of monthly oil data at the global level
Key Results IEF Rome 20-22 April 2008 Investment Tackle Key Uncertainties (e.g. biofuels, skill shortages, scarcity fear) Transparency Boost JODI and Extend to Gas Sustainability Boost Energy Efficiency and Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
Key Points Joint Statement - Jeddah 22 June 2008 Increase Upstream and Downstream Investment to Increase Supply Promote Energy Efficiency to Dampen Demand Improve Transparency and Regulation of Financial Markets Enhance Transparency of Oil Data through Improvement and Extension of JODI Strengthen Collaboration between IEA/OPEC/IEF on Shared Analysis of Oil Market Intensify Development Assistance to Least-developed Countries Improve Co-operation between IOCs/NOCs/Service Companies
Key Messages More Oil & Gas Needed in Coming Decades Middle East Oil & Gas Key to Global Markets Growing Interdependence of Consumers & Producers Achieve Results in Improving Investment, Transparency & Sustainability towards Mexico 2010 IEF Catalyst for Action-oriented Global Energy Dialogue
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