Information Analytics Expertise NOVEMBER 23, 214 WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 9 th Annual GPCA Forum Blake Eskew, Vice President IHS Energy - Oil Markets & Downstream +1 713 331 4 Blake.Eskew@ihs.com 214 IHS
Short Term Volatility has Returned to the Oil Market Strong supply growth has gained the upper hand over geopolitical concerns in shaping oil price trends Exceptional growth in non-opec especially in the United States along with recent increases in Libya now have global oil supply growth running at more than double the pace of demand growth. In response, oil prices have declined markedly from the $11 range (Brent), which was quite stable from early 211 through summer 214 The response of OPEC and other market players is still uncertain Regardless, global fundamentals will continue to shape long-term prices, while short-term volatility has returned 214 IHS 2
Contents LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS Crude oil markets Natural gas markets Petrochemical Feedstock markets SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENTS 214 IHS 3
Primary Energy Demand will be Led by Gas with Notable Growth in Oil and Renewables Million Tons of Oil Equivalent 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Global Growth in Demand by Source of Energy from 214 to 24 Gas Oil Coal Nuclear Renewables Hydro Other Notes: Oil includes international marine/aviation bunkers; does not include biofuels, which at the primary energy level are not associated with petroleum. Coal includes steam and coking coal. Renewables include solar, wind, geothermal, and tide/wave/ocean energy. "Other" includes biofuels, solid waste, biomass, and net trade of electricity and heat. 214 IHS 4
Global Light-Duty Vehicle (LDV) Fleet Doubles by 24 TODAY 9 million vehicles on the road Rivalry Scenario 24 Fleet nearly doubles Increase in smaller vehicles More powertrain diversity Source: IHS Energy 214 IHS 5 69-2
Demand Growth for Oil Products will Decelerate over Forecast Millions of Barrels per Day 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Global Refined Product Demand 2 to 24 Percentages are annual average growth rates for 214-4 Residual fuel oil.3% Naphtha 1.% Diesel / gas oil.8% Gasoline.6% Other products 1.% Jet fuel 1.1% 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 214 IHS Source: IHS Energy 6
Most oil consumed in 24 58 million b/d has yet to be developed or even discovered World Crude and Condensate Production Outlook Million Barrels per Day 1 9 8 Yet to find 7 6 5 4 3 Fields in production 2 1 Segregated condensate 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 58 mbd of new production needed by 24 214 IHS Source: IHS Energy 7
Most Upstream Cost Elements above 28 Peak Upstream Cost Changes Index: 2 = 1 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 Q4 28 Q2 29 Q4 29 Q2 21 Q4 21 Q2 211 Q4 211 Q2 212 Q4 212 Q2 213 Q4 213 Steel Offshore rigs Equipment Yards/fabrication Bulk materials Offshore inst. vessels Land rigs Engrg and PM Const labor Subsea 214 IHS Source: IHS CERA 8
Upstream returns are much lower in recent years, due to high costs and project complexity Upstream ROCE 3% 25% 2% 5%-15% Returns 15% 1% 5% % 199 1991 Production - Weighted Average Upstream ROCE 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 Upstream Returns 15%-2% Returns 21 22 23 24 Brent Dollars per Barrel 2%-25% Returns $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 1-15% Returns $2 $ 25 26 27 28 29 Brent Price Source: IHS Upstream Competition Service Notes: ROCE data include Anadarko, Apache, BG Group, BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Eni, ExxonMobil, Hess, Marathon Oil, Occidental, Repsol, Shell, Statoil, and TOTAL. Upstream ROCE defined as [Upstream Net Income / Upstream Year-End Net Capitalized Costs]. 21 211 212 213 214 IHS 9
The Crude Price Outlook to 24 Brent Crude Oil Price, Annual Average to 24 214 IHS 1
Exceptional US production growth keeping a lid on oil prices; Since 28 US output up 3.5 million b/d Million Barrels Per Day 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Change in Crude Oil Production since 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 United States Canada Saudi Arabia Rest of the world 3.5 1.2.7-3.4 214 IHS Source: IHS Energy 11
The Great Revival in US Crude Production Million Barrels Per Day 12 1 US Crude Oil Production Outlook to 22 Outlook 8 6 4 2 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 Tight Oil Alaska Gulf of Mexico Lower 48 conventional 214 IHS Source: IHS 12
Contents LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS Crude oil markets Natural gas markets Petrochemical Feedstock markets SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENTS 214 IHS 13
Strong Growth for Power and Exports Drive US Gas Demand US L48 Gas Demand Growth Relative to 28 Bcf Per Day 3 25 2.9 Bcf per day year-over-year growth 2 15 1 5 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 Coal displacement Power growth LNG exports Industrial NGVs Mexico exports 214 IHS Source: EIA and IHS Energy 14
North American Gas Supply is Plentiful and Low Cost Breakeven Henry Hub Price for Natural Gas Resources in 17 Analyzed Unconventional Plays 25 years consumption (66 Tcf) 5 years consumption (1211 Tcf) IHS estimates total North American resources at about 3,4 Tcf Source: IHS CERA, Fueling North America s Energy Future. Note: Proved, possible, and potential resources. 112-6 214 IHS 15
Global Liquefaction Capacity Set to Increase Strongly from 216 Million Metric Tons 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 22 24 Global Liquefaction Capacity - Rivalry Scenario 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 214 IHS Source: IHS Energy 16 22 222 224 226 228 Africa OECD Asia Non-OECD Asia CIS Europe Latin America North America Other Middle East Qatar Australia 23 232 234 236 238 24
LNG Supply Competition is Increasing Growing and Diversifying Supply Potential Global liquefaction inventory Australia Qatar Malaysia Indonesia Algeria Russia Nigeria USA Trinidad Egypt Oman Iran Brunei Papua New Guinea Yemen Abu Dhabi Angola Peru Norway Equatorial Guinea Colombia Canada Mozambique Tanzania Cyprus Libya Iraq Cameroon Israel Brazil Namibia Source: IHS Energy Global Liquefaction Inventory More than 25 mt of applications for export permits have been proposed to the regulator in the USA. Total Inventory: 1,156 mt Existing, 296mt Under Construction, 122mt Potential, 738mt N.B. An "inventory" of projects, not an outlook. Potential projects have varying degrees of likelihood. 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 Million tons per year 214 IHS 214 IHS 17
Japan is the foundation of global LNG demand, non - OECD Asia is the center of future growth potential with Europe in the balancing role Global LNG Demand Rivalry Scenario Million Metric Tons 7 6 5 Middle East 4 Non-OECD Asia 3 Americas 2 Europe 1 OECD Asia 214 IHS 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 224 226 228 23 232 234 236 238 24 OECD Asia Europe Americas Non-OECD Asia Middle East Post 22 growth in Middle Eastern LNG demand New markets like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Singapore; along with Indonesia and Malaysia. Chinese demand overtakes S. Korean demand by 22 and could rival Japan s demand in 23s. Latin America: growing reliance on LNG. Bolivia and shale uncertainty Europe plays the balancing role. Return of some nuclear generation in Japan, Source: IHS Energy mature market. 18
Outlook is for Continued Wide Disparity between Oil and Gas Prices Brent Crude Oil and Regional Gas Prices to 24 (Constant 213 US$) Notes: Europe gas price is IHS CERA's proprietary estimate of the average long-term, oil-linked gas contract price in Continental Europe (includes Portugal, Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Germany and Turkey). Historic Asia gas price represents the average cost for landed LNG into Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Outlook is the average contracted price for LNG into Asia. US gas price is for Henry Hub spot price. 214 IHS 19
Contents LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS Crude oil markets Natural gas markets Petrochemical Feedstock markets SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENTS 214 IHS 2
Petrochemical Feedstocks will be Supplied from an Increasingly Mixed Supply Base Global Olefins Feedstock Million Metric Tons 6 5 4 3 2 1 25 21 215 22 225 Ethane Propane/Butane Naphtha Gasoil/Heavy Liquid Source: IHS Energy Coal/Others Global Feedstock Growth: 213-225 Source: IHS Energy Gasoil/ Heavy Liquid 8 Global Olefins Feedstock Global Feedstock Growth: 213-225 Coal/ Others 5 Naphtha 62 Ethane 42 22 Million Metric Tons Propane/ Butane 57 214 IHS 214 IHS Global Demand for Petrochemicals vs. Oil.9 25 21 215 22 225 214 IHS 21 Index (25 = 1) 2.1 2 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 Source: IHS Energy Global Demand for Petrochemicals vs Oil Aromatics Olefins Crude Oil Gasoline 214 IHS
Global LPG Production is Growing Most Rapidly in the US, the Middle East and in Asia Million Metric Tons 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Global LPG Production by Region Million Barrels Per Day 11 1 8 6 5 3 2 2 25 21 215 22 North America Middle East Asia/Pacific Africa Latin America Europe/CIS 214 IHS 22
Residential / commercial still claims the largest share of demand, but chemicals use will continue to gain share Global LPG Demand by End Use Million Metric Tons Million Barrels Per Day 5 11.4 4 9.7 8.1 3 6.5 2 4.9 3.2 1 1.6. 2 21 22 Other Engine Fuel Chemical Refinery Industrial Residential/ Commercial 2 LPG End Use Share 6% 7% 11% 9% 7% 214 LPG End Use Share 4% 5% 8% 21% 27% 48% 47% Residential/ Commercial Chemical Industrial Engine Fuel Refinery Residential/ Commercial Chemical Industrial Engine Fuel 214 IHS 23
NGL Growth the Result of Both Gaseous Tight Oil and Wet Gas Wells Total US NGL Production Million Barrels Per Day 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 25 21 215 22 Refining Bakken Eagle Ford Million Metric Tons Per Year Other Gas Based Supply Marcellus / Utica Barnett / Woodford / Niobrara 142 113 85 57 28 214 IHS 24
Strong Ethane and Propane Growth Supply-Driven Market Affecting Price and Exports Millions of Barrels per Day 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. US NGLs from Gas Processing Million Metric Tons Per Year 142. 2 25 21 215 22 Ethane Propane n-butane i-butane Natural Gasoline 214 IHS 25 113 85 57 28
While the situation is still evolving, ethane exports will become a new feature of the NAM market Million Barrels per Day 2. US Ethane Demand with Enterprise Exports* Million Metric Tons Per Year 41 1.5 1..5 31 21 1. 2 25 21 215 22 Base Chemical PriceSensitive Other Exports 214 IHS *Includes Enterprise but not Targa exports 26
Surplus US propane supply will push into export markets after accounting for new propane dehydro (PDH) units US Propane Demand Thousand Barrels per Day 2, 1,6 1,2 8 4 2 25 21 215 22 Res/Com Base Chemical-Ethylene Price Sensitive Chemical Chemical-Ref. Propylene Chemical-PDH Industrial Farm Other Exports 214 IHS 27
Long Term Conclusions Peak oil demand is on the long-term horizon a result of high prices and transportation sector efficiency gains Tight oil supplies from North America have limited crude price increases but longer-term cost pressures will sustain elevated prices Gas supplies are plentiful and relatively cheap but markets are demand limited even as new demand segments emerge Naphtha, NGLs and coal are all important regional feedstocks for the next decade Oversupplied NGL markets will provide regional low-cost feedstock for petrochemical producers 214 IHS 28
Contents LONG TERM FUNDAMENTALS Crude oil markets Natural gas markets Petrochemical Feedstock markets SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENTS 214 IHS 29
Today s Oil Market is in a State of Turmoil Dated Brent outlook lowered to $88/barrel (bbl) in 215 and $86/bbl in 216, due to weaker fundamentals and uncertainty over OPEC actions to support prices Demand-supply fundamentals for 215-16 softer than before. Non-OPEC liquids supply growth to outpace world liquids demand growth for a second consecutive year in 215 (at 1.5 million barrels per day [MMb/d] versus 1.1 MMb/d), led by United States Libya production assumed to average 7, barrels per day (b/d) in 215-16 but with high volatility 214 IHS 3
The Turmoil may be Persistent OPEC cuts may be insufficient to support prices, due to differing incentives among OPEC members US tight oil production likely to be resilient in face of lower prices. IHS Energy believes that most US tight oil production additions are resilient at West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices as low as $7/bbl. US crude discounts narrow currently, but expected to deepen in 215. Discounts expected to narrow in 216 as restrictions on US exports are loosened, or companies begin to self-classify and send processed condensate cargoes. 214 IHS 31
Brent to Average under $9 in 215-16 Quarterly Average Price per Barrel $13 $12 $11 $1 $9 $8 $7 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 Dated Brent and Other Benchmark Crude Oil Price Outlook to 216 Outlook 4Q15 Dated Brent LLS WTI 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 214 IHS 32
Thank You! Blake Eskew, Vice President IHS Energy - Oil Markets & Downstream +1 713 331 4 blake.eskew@ihs.com 214 IHS 33