Crop Production Costs For 2017 (& Other Stuff)

Crop Production Costs For 2017 (& Other Stuff) BASA AGM, Cartwright December 12, 2016............................... Roy Arnott, P.Ag. Farm Management Specialist 204-523-6424 roy.arnott@gov.mb.ca

Planning Should Start with COP s The corner stone of your Production, Management, or Marketing plan should start with calculating Cost of Production (COP). Knowing your COP (per bushel) is the first step in deciding what is a profitable or breakeven price. Cost : Benefit needs to be evaluated for every change to your crop plan.

Outline: Grain Markets & Yields Fertilizer Costs COP Summary & Analysis AgriInsurance Analysis Fixed Costs Land Equipment MYFARM Calculator *NEW* &Other Tools

Grain Market Outlook For 2017?? CAUTION: Objects in the Mirror are Closer Than They Appear!

New Crop Prices (Sept. Delivery) December 2015 Canola $10.25 RS Wheat $6.53 Oats - $2.95 Flax - $12.08 Soybeans - $10.02 W Wheat - $5.45 Barley - $4.00 Corn - $4.55 Peas - $8.82 December 2016 Canola $10.75 RS Wheat $6.25 Oats - $3.20 Flax - $12.50 Soybeans - $11.50 W Wheat - $5.00 Barley - $3.50 Corn $4.25 Peas - $7.00

RA#5 Yield per Acre - 2017 140.0 $14.00 120.0 $11.50 $12.00 $10.75 100.0 $10.00 Yield Per Acre 80.0 60.0 $6.25 120.0 $8.00 $6.00 $ Per Unit 100.0 40.0 55.0 80.0 $3.50 $3.20 $4.25 $4.00 20.0 42.0 36.0 $2.00 0.0 Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn $0.00 Yield $/unit Manitoba Agriculture

$500.00 RA#5 Crop Production Costs ($/Acre) - 2017 $450.00 $30.00 $400.00 $30.00 $130.84 $350.00 $300.00 $120.16 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $/Acre $250.00 $200.00 $122.17 $119.63 $125.50 $128.17 $150.00 $310.64 $249.17 $100.00 $191.00 $190.29 $174.71 $149.25 $50.00 $0.00 Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn A. Operating Costs B. Fixed Costs C. Labour

$/Acre $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 HRS Wheat Costs (1990-2017) Seed & treatment Fertilizer Chemicals

$200 Canola Costs (1990-2017) $150 $/Acre $100 $50 $0 Seed & treatment Fertilizer Chemicals

Managing Risk - Fertilizer Pricing Timing of fertilizer purchases has been as important to overall profitability as better than average commodity marketing. Moving forward, we have to treat fertilizer as we treat our commodities.must be strategically purchased in our farm plan.

Fall vs. Spring Purchase True or False Fertilizer is always priced lower in the previous fall than in the spring? Almost True but not always. Based on long term data - Roughly 15% increase from fall to spring.

$900 Urea Nitrogen Fall vs. Spring Prices (2001-2017) $800 $700 $600 Price ($/MT) $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Previous Fall Spring Previous Fall Trend Spring Trend

$1,600 11-52-0 Fall vs. Spring Prices (2001-2017) $1,400 $1,200 Price ($/MT) $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Previous Fall Spring Previous Fall Trend Spring Trend

Fertilizer Spring vs. Fall Price Change % Price Change 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 13.3% 16.6% 20.7% 17.5% 17.3% 13.1% 0.0% Average Increase 2001-2017 Average without 2009 Average without 2008 and 2009 46-0-0 11-52-0

$200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 10 year Total Benefit of Fall Buying Fertilizer Average MB Farm that buys - 160 MT 46-0-0 & 50 MT 11-52-0 $41,600 $144,160 $10,000 $8,985 $21,596 $32,000 Savings Interest Cost Storage Cost @ $20/MT 46-0-0 (160 MT) 11-52-0 (50 MT) $22,615 $90,564 Net Savings

$/Acre $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Canola Seed Cost (1990-2017)

$600.00 RA#5 Crop Marginal Returns ($/Acre) - 2017 $500.00 $400.00 $/Acre $300.00 $200.00 $100.00 $0.00 -$100.00 Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn Gross Revenue Margin Over Operating Margin Over Operating & Fixed

110.0 100.0 RA#5 Breakeven Yields (per Acre) - 2017 103.9 90.0 85.8 86.7 80.0 73.1 Yield Per Acre 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 23.2 34.4 30.6 50.1 26.9 49.9 46.6 20.0 16.5 10.0 0.0 Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn Breakeven Yield Over Operating Costs Breakeven Yield Over Op & Fixed Costs

RA#5 Breakeven Price ($/unit) - 2017 $10.00 $9.00 $8.74 $8.53 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.87 $5.65 $/Unit $5.00 $5.21 $4.00 $3.43 $3.72 $3.63 $3.00 $2.15 $2.75 $2.54 $2.00 $1.47 $1.00 $0.00 Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn Operating Costs Operating & Fixed Costs

RA#5 Breakeven Yields (per Acre) - 2017 140.0% 120.0% 100.0% 113.2% 100.2% 121.6% 104.1% 108.2% 84.8% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn Target or Average Yield as % of B/E Yield

$180.00 RA#5 Crop Marginal Returns 'Stress Test' - Price Down 10% & Yield Down 5% ($/Acre) - 2017 $160.00 $161.71 $140.00 $120.00 $115.92 $122.13 $124.33 $/Acre $100.00 $80.00 $60.00 $101.61 $63.02 $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn Margin Over Operating Costs

$60.00 RA#5 Crop Marginal Returns 'Stress Test' - Price Down 10% & Yield Down 5% ($/Acre) - 2017 $40.00 $42.08 $20.00 $/Acre $0.00 ($20.00) ($4.24) ($20.55) ($6.04) ($6.51) ($40.00) ($60.00) ($80.00) ($62.49) Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn Margin Over Op & Fixed Costs

$30.00 RA#5-80% Insured Value AgriInsurance Risk Analysis - 2017 8.00% $25.00 6.79% 7.00% 6.00% $20.00 4.98% 5.00% $ Per Acre $15.00 $10.00 2.41% 3.39% 2.77% $25.88 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% $5.00 1.64% $5.61 $6.04 $11.88 $7.82 $6.13 1.00% $0.00 Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn 0.00% 80% Insured Value Premium $/Acre Premium % of Insured Value

$120.00 RA#5 Costs Not Covered By 80% Insured Value AgriInsurance - 2017 $100.00 $80.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $/Acre $60.00 $40.00 $30.00 $62.76 $71.58 $69.69 $55.80 $60.49 $20.00 $26.95 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn Operating Costs Fixed Costs Labour

$450.00 RA#5-80% Insured Value AgriInsurance Risk Analysis - 2017 160% $400.00 $350.00 137% 131% 125% 132% 148% 123% 140% 120% $300.00 100% $ Per Acre $250.00 $200.00 $150.00 $342.38 86% 73% 70% 70% 72% $380.99 81% 80% 60% $100.00 $250.40 $238.34 $230.52 $221.62 40% $50.00 20% $0.00 Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn 0% 80% Insured Value Coverage of Operating Costs Coverage of Total Costs

$25.00 RA#5-70% Insured Value AgriInsurance Risk Analysis - 2017 7.00% 5.95% 6.00% $20.00 5.00% $ Per Acre $15.00 $10.00 4.34% 2.54% $19.85 4.00% 3.00% $5.00 1.08% $3.23 $3.70 1.69% $9.06 $5.13 $4.23 2.18% 2.00% 1.00% $0.00 Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn 0.00% 70% Insured Value Premium $/Acre Premium % of Insured Value

$140.00 RA#5 Costs Not Covered By 70% Insured Value AgriInsurance - 2017 $120.00 $100.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $/Acre $80.00 $60.00 $30.00 $40.00 $67.32 $91.67 $98.48 $95.76 $81.56 $101.94 $20.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn Operating Costs Fixed Costs Labour

$400.00 RA#5-70% Insured Value AgriInsurance Risk Analysis - 2017 132% 140% $350.00 $300.00 121% 116% 111% 117% 109% 120% 100% $250.00 $ Per Acre $200.00 $150.00 $299.58 75% 64% 62% 62% 63% $333.37 72% 80% 60% $100.00 $219.10 $208.54 $201.70 $193.91 40% $50.00 20% $0.00 Canola Wheat Soybeans Barley Oats Corn 0% 70% Insured Value Coverage of Operating Costs Coverage of Total Costs

Fixed Cost Management Gross Revenue = Price x Yield Per Acre Margin Over Operating Cost = Gross Revenue Operating Costs Margin Over Operating 35% Operating Costs 65%

Fixed Cost Management Owner Withdrawl 5% Equipment Cost 12% Land Cost 18% Operating Costs 65%

Land Buy More, Rent More, or Neither? Land prices in MB have risen significantly over the past number of years. Cash rental rates have also increased. Can we afford to farm land at these rent prices or afford to buy land at these prices? Fast answer is..depends.

Cash Rent Based on Gross Revenue Average range of cash rent across western Canada is 18 to 22% of gross revenue. 2017 = $350 to $450 per acre gross revenues. $63 to $100 per acre cash rent

Cash Rent Based on Investment Return on Land Value (Landowner check & balance) Gross Revenue x 5 = $1,750 to $2,250/ac x 6 = $2,100 to $2,700/ac x 8 = $2,800 to $3,600/ac x10 = $3,500 to $4,500/ac Too Cheap Reality? Insanity Do you believe that farmland values are solely based on profitability??

Cash Rent Based on Investment Return on Land Value (Landowner check & balance) (cont.) Land market value $2,100 per acre x Long Term Investment Rate (5yr) 2.5 % + Property taxes $12.00 per acre Total Cash Land Rental $64.50 per acre Based on Reality

Cash Rent Based on Investment Return on Land Value (Landowner check & balance) (cont.) Land market value $3,600 per acre x Long Term Investment Rate (5yr) 2.5 % + Property taxes $12.00 per acre Total Cash Land Rental $102.00 per acre Based on Reality

Land Planning Based on Gross Revenue or Margin Over Operating? What if we have: Flat or falling commodity prices? Increasing interest rates? Increasing production costs? How long can we make decisions on land and equipment based only on gross revenue?? Shrinking Margin Over Operating is going to be a real challenge down the road.

Machinery Investment What is Acceptable? (12 to 15% of Gross Revenue/acre) Machinery Investment range for most farms is 50% to 200% of gross revenue ($175 to $700) per acre. Generally, lower investment costs should be accompanied by higher repair costs in your budget. Sprayer, $75 Trucks, Grain Cart, Augers, Harrow, etc., $75 Drill & Planter, $75 4WD Tractor, $100 Combine & Swather, $175

NEW!! MYFARM Crop Management Calculator Cost of Production / Marketing / Management 2017 Crop Year Based on the Crop COP (simple & easy to use) Cash costs on annual basis (bushel, ac & total) Use it for: pre season planning; growing season management; & crop marketing before and after the crop is in the bin.

MYFARM Crop Mgmt Calculator Cost of Production: Costs per bushel, per acre, & total farm. Gross revenue estimates. Marketing: Breakeven prices & yields Avg. price sold to date. B/E price on remaining unsold production. Management: Fertilizer, seed and grain storage required. Op. Expense ratio. AgriInsurance values and coverage estimates. Avg. & B/E land and machinery payment per ac What If? Analyzer

MYFARM What If? Analyzer What If? Printed: 2 Crop Price (Change %, +/-) 0% Crop Yield (Change %, +/-) 0% Fuel Cost (Change %, +/-) 0% Rese Fertilizer Cost (Change %, +/-) 0% Defau Added Machinery Lease Annual Payment ($) $0 Added Machinery Purchase Annual Payment ($) $0 Acreage Change - Land Purchase (Additional Annual Payment) $0 0 Acres Purchased Acreage Change - Land Sale (Reduced Annual Payment) $0 0 Acres Sold Acreage Change - Land Rental Payments Per Acre (+/-) $0 0 Acres (+/-) Land Rental Rate (Change $/acre, +/-) $0 Hired Labour Cost (Change +/- $) $0 Owner Withdrawl (Change +/- $) $0 Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate - USD (Change $, +/-) $0.00 (0 cent change from current value, affects fertilizer cost and grain mark Calculates the impact of the what if changes on costs, revenues and marginal returns.

Reseeding Decision Tool - Canola *** Enter/select changes to items in BLUE only *** Farm Information: MASC - Risk Area RA #2 MASC - Soil Zone E MASC - Individual Productivity Index (IPI) 1.00 MASC AgriInsurance Coverage level 80% Calculated MASC Probable Yield (bu/ac) 34.6 Original Crop Canola Reseeded Crop Canola Estimated Market Price ($/bu) $10.89 Damaged Canola Plant Stand Evaluation: Plants/m 2 Field Sample Plant Counts/m 2 15 * enter up to (5) plant counts in the boxes to the right * leave entries blank if less than (5) counts were taken * 10.8 plants/m 2 = approx. 1 plant/ft 2 Average Plant Count/m2 15.0 Plant Count - Yield Factor 0.75 Estimated Yield (bu/ac) 26.0 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) $282.60

Reseeding Decision Tool - Canola Canola Reseeding Evaluation: Reseed Date 1st week June Date - Yield Factor 0.8953 Estimated Reseed Yield (bu/ac) 31.0 Estimated AgriInsurance Reseeding Indemnity ($/ac) $75.36 Estimated Seed Company Reimbursement ($/ac) $0.00 Reseed Seed Costs ($/ac) $60.00 Reseed Machinery Costs ($/ac) $15.00 Estimated Gross Revenue ($/ac) $337.95 (net reseeding indemnity, reimbursements & expenses) Estimated Benefit (Cost) of Reseed Decision ($/ac) $55.35

Sclerotinia Treatment Decision Tool *** Enter/select changes to items in BLUE only *** Risk Factor Possible Answers Risk Points Number of Years Since last Canola Crop One to two years 10 Disease Incidence in Last Host Low (1% to 10%) 5 Crop Density Normal 5 Rain in the Last Two Weeks Less than 10 mm (0.4") 0 Weather Forecast Regional Risk for Apothecia Development Variable 10 Low Numbers 10 Estimated Canola Yield 40 bu/ac Estimated Price $10.75 $/bu Estimated Fungicide Cost $21.88 $/acre Estimated Application Cost $8.00 $/acre

Sclerotinia Treatment Decision Tool Sclerotinia Treatment Profitability Analysis Low High Potential Infection Range 15% 25% Potential $ Return/acre $2.37 $23.87 Potential Return on Investment 8% 80% Profit Probability 100% Spray Decision - Likely Beneficial to Spray Created and maintained by Manitoba Agriculture Farm Management December, 2017 Roy Arnott Darren Bond Farm Management Specialist Farm Management Specialist

Livestock Price Slide Calculator Printed: 2016-11-23 *** Enter changes to values in BLUE only Input Data: Contracted Price ($ per cwt.) $ 188.50 Base or Projected Weight (lbs.) 550 Weight Increments (lbs.) 25 Price Slide - Initial (cents per lb.) 10 Price Slide - Increments (cents per lb.) 2 Price Slide Calculation 6 Cent Price Slide 8 Cent Price Slide 10 Cent Price Slide 12 Cent Price Slide 14 Cent Price Slide Weight $/cwt Price/Hd $/cwt Price/Hd $/cwt Price/Hd $/cwt Price/Hd $/cwt Price/Hd 500 $ 191.50 $ 957.50 $ 192.50 $ 962.50 $ 193.50 $ 967.50 $ 194.50 $ 972.50 $ 195.50 $ 977.50 525 $ 190.00 $ 997.50 $ 190.50 $ 1,000.13 $ 191.00 $ 1,002.75 $ 191.50 $ 1,005.38 $ 192.00 $ 1,008.00 550 $ 188.50 $ 1,036.75 $ 188.50 $ 1,036.75 $ 188.50 $ 1,036.75 $ 188.50 $ 1,036.75 $ 188.50 $ 1,036.75 575 $ 187.00 $ 1,075.25 $ 186.50 $ 1,072.38 $ 186.00 $ 1,069.50 $ 185.50 $ 1,066.63 $ 185.00 $ 1,063.75 600 $ 185.50 $ 1,113.00 $ 184.50 $ 1,107.00 $ 183.50 $ 1,101.00 $ 182.50 $ 1,095.00 $ 181.50 $ 1,089.00 625 $ 184.00 $ 1,150.00 $ 182.50 $ 1,140.63 $ 181.00 $ 1,131.25 $ 179.50 $ 1,121.88 $ 178.00 $ 1,112.50 650 $ 182.50 $ 1,186.25 $ 180.50 $ 1,173.25 $ 178.50 $ 1,160.25 $ 176.50 $ 1,147.25 $ 174.50 $ 1,134.25 Current Market Value Price Slide Lbs. Price/cwt. Baseline Market Weight (lbs.) 550 $ 188.50 Ending Market Weight (lbs.) 650 $ 181.88 Calculated Current Market Price Slide (cents per lb) 6.62

Farm Software & Worksheets (Crops) http://www.gov.mb.ca/ agriculture/businessandeconomics/financialmanagement/farmsoftware-andworksheets.html Farm Machinery Custom & Rental Rate Guide Calculator - 2016/17 Crop Land Purchase Values 2016 Crop Land Rental Rate - 2016 Crop Share Lease 2017 FertPlan - 2017 Grain Bin and Farm Building Rental Cost Planner Grain Drying Cost Calculator Sclerotinia Treatment Decision Tool (Canola and Sunflower versions)

Farm Software & Worksheets (Critters) http://www.gov.mb.ca/ agriculture/businessandeconomics/financialmanagement/farmsoftware-andworksheets.html Price Slide Calculator - 2017 Calf Creep Feed Calculator - 2016 Cow Replacement Value - 2016 Cow Overwinter Cost 2016 Cow Share Lease - 2016 FeedPlan FencePlan Hay Storage Cost Pasture Rental Rate 2016 Standing Hay Cost - 2017

Questions? For more information Visit our website: www.manitoba.ca/agriculture Follow us on Twitter: @MBGovAg View our videos on YouTube: www.youtube.com/manitobaagriculture Contact me: Roy Arnott, P.Ag. roy.arnott@gov.mb.ca Killarney GO Office - 204.523.6424