Toronto, ON September 27, 2007 Natural Gas Update Presentation to: Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) General Meeting Thomas Kiley, President and CEO Northeast Gas Association
Topics Winter Outlook Gas Supply Task Force Status of Infrastructure
NGA Members Non-profit trade association Local gas utilities (LDCs) serving New England, New York, and New Jersey Several interstate pipeline companies LNG importer (Distrigas) and LNG trucking companies Over 250 associate member companies, from industry suppliers and contractors to electric grid operators www.northeastgas.org NY VT NH MA RI CT NJ ME
Winter Outlook U.S. gas production projected to increase by 1.7% this year over last Canadian exports to Northeast U.S. through June 2007 were up 11% over same period last year LNG imports in U.S. projected to be over 45% higher this year than last 2007 imports through July were 562.9 Bcf, compared to total 2006 figure of 583.5 Storage levels in positive position, 8% above average; refills close to target level expected by Nov. 1st Companies serving region on-track with maintenance Commodity price has been fairly stable within bandwidth Looking ahead, weather, as always, is the biggest variable in supply/price dynamic Infrastructure developments underway Several projects expected online by winter
North American Drilling North American drill count is 50 rigs higher than year ago levels. Source: U.S. FERC, Market Oversight
Underground Storage Levels, U.S. Storage levels as of September 14 were 3.1 Tcf, 8% above the 5-year average; goal is to be full (roughly 3.4 Tcf) by Nov. 1 each year Source: U.S. EIA, data released 9-20-07
Price: Recent History, EIA Short-Term Forecast Natural Gas Prices 20 18 Forecast 16 14 Dollars per thousand cubic feet 12 10 8 6 4 Henry Hub Spot Price 2 Composite Wellhead Price 0 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2007
NGA Gas Supply Task Force Members: all LDCs in region, interstate pipelines (including TransCanada), LNG transporters Purpose: to help deal with meeting winter supply needs and deliverability within the Northeast region Tasks: Monitor regional deliverability of its members gas supplies during periods of peak demand or supply curtailment; Advise region s energy, regulatory and policy officials; also Update ISOs in region of meetings, outcomes
NGA Interface with ISOs Electric & Gas Operations Committee, NGA and ISO-NE Meets periodically, provides updates on system issues (only publicly available information discussed transparency requirements) Operations communications protocol being updated NY ISO will participate at late October meeting of NGA s gas control committee NGA on behalf of its NE Gas Supply Task Force will notify ISO- NE, NY ISO, PJM when Task Force meets, summary of any actions or status Key issue remains level of non-firm transportation arrangements among gas-fired power generators
Existing & Proposed LNG Import Terminals, Northeast Green = under construction Orange = approved by U.S. FERC Purple = approved by Quebec & Canadian regulators Blue = permits received Yellow = proposed, in regulatory process 12 13 NEWFOUNDLAND 14 QUEBEC ONTARIO 9 8 10 11 MARYLAND 1 Distrigas terminal, Everett, MA, in operation since 1971 2 4 Updated by NGA based on public information as of 9-07. Locations approximate. Not all pipeline systems shown. Original map outline by FERC. 3 5 7 6 Proposed Terminals 1. Crown Landing LNG, Logan Township, NJ: 1.2 Bcf/d (BP) 2. Safe Harbor Energy, off south shore, Long Island, NY: 2 Bcf/d (Atlantic Sea Island Group) 3. Broadwater Energy, offshore Long Island, NY: 1 Bcf/d (TransCanada and Shell US Gas & Power) 4. KeySpan LNG, Providence, RI: 0.5 Bcf/d (KeySpan & BG LNG) 5. Weaver s Cove LNG, Fall River, MA: 0.4 to 0.8 Bcf/d (Hess LNG) 6. Neptune LNG, Off Cape Ann, MA: 0.4 Bcf/d (SUEZ Energy Resources) 7. Northeast Gateway Project, Off Cape Ann, MA: 0.4 to 0.8 Bcf/d (Excelerate Energy) 8. Quoddy LNG, Pleasant Point, ME: 0.5 Bcf/d (Quoddy Bay LLC) 9. Downeast LNG, Robbinston, ME: 0.5 Bcf/d (Kestrel Energy Partners) 10. Canaport LNG, St. John, NB: 0.75 to 1 Bcf/d (Irving Oil, Repsol) 11. Maple LNG, Goldboro, NS: 1.0 to 2.0 Bcf/d (Keltic Petrochemicals, 4Gas, Suntera) 12. Rabaska, Levis-Beaumont, QU: 0.5 Bcf/d (Gaz Métro, Gaz de France, Enbridge) 13. Cacouna Energy, QU: 0.5 Bcf/d (TransCanada, Petro-Canada) 14. Grassy Point LNG, Placentia Bay, NL (Newfoundland LNG Ltd.)
Planned Northeast Pipeline Projects Prepared by NGA, 9-07, based on publicly available information. Project locations approximate. Columbia, DTE Energy, KeySpan, Millennium National Fuel Gas, Empire Connector Project Iroquois, MarketAccess Expansion VERMONT Tennessee, Northeast ConneXion NE Tennessee, Atlantic Supply Expansion M&NE, Phase IV Expansion Tennessee, Essex Middlesex Project Tennessee, Northeast Passage Spectra/KeySpan, Islander East Spectra/Algonquin, Cape Cod Expansion Iroquois, Brookhaven Lateral Williams, Leidy to Long Island Williams, Sentinel Expansion Project Spectra/Texas Eastern, TIME II Spectra/Algonquin, Ramapo Expansion
Construction Update: 2007-08 Project Summary Development Planned In- Service Stagecoach Expansion Phase II expansion, to add 13 Bcf of storage in NY, near PA border In-service, 9-07 Completed Northeast ConneXion NE Cape Cod Expansion Texas Eastern TIME II Yankee LNG Storage Northeast Gateway NE-07 Project Canaport LNG Maritimes & Northeast IV Add l 136,000/day into NE on Tennessee Pipeline 38,000 Dth/d extending Algonquin system on Cape Cod 150,000 Dth/d expansion of Algonquin from Ohio to NJ 1.2 Bcf LNG storage tank in Waterbury, CT Offshore LNG project, near Gloucester, MA; sponsored by Excelerate Energy Millennium Pipeline (NiSource, DTE Energy, KeySpan); Empire State Connector (National Fuel); Ramapo Expansion (Algonquin); MarketAccess Expansion (Iroquois) LNG import facility in Saint John, New Brunswick; joint project of Repsol and Irving Oil Added compression in Maine to enable near doubling of throughput to region, from 400 to ~ 800 MMcf/d Under construction Nov. 2007 Under construction Nov. 2007 Under construction Nov. 2007 Initial fill underway Anticipated to be available for dispatch, this winter Under construction Dec. 2007 Construction underway Nov. 2008 Under construction; 46% complete as of Aug. 2007; in Sept., Irving announced proposal to add 3 rd tank Nov. 2008 Construction underway Nov. 2008
Northeast Gateway LNG Under construction. Planned in-service date: Dec. 2007 Approximate location shown in yellow box. Photos of current construction can be found online at: www.northeastgatewayconstruction.com
Northeast Gateway Energy Bridge TM Project Subsea Pipeline To Shore STL Buoy Energy Bridge Regasification Vessel Flexible Riser Subsea Manifold Anchor Lines
Millennium Pipeline Under construction. Planned in-service date: Nov. 2008 Photos of current construction can be found online at: www.millenniumpipeline.com
Canaport LNG Under construction. Planned in-service date: Nov. 2008 Illustration of final project above; Photos of current construction can be found online at: www.canaportlng.com
Maritimes & Northeast IV Under construction. Planned in-service date: Nov. 2008 Quebec Quebec City New Brunswick Fredericton Prince Edward Island Maine Moncton VT PNGTS Bangor Saint John Point Tupper Goldboro Westbrook Portland Emera Brunswick Pipeline Nova Scotia Halifax H NH MA Tennessee Boston Algonquin MNP Phase IV - 5 New Compressor Stations - 2 Station Upgrades - 2 Miles 30-inch Loop Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline Existing Compressor Stations Emera Brunswick Pipeline New Compressor Stations
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