Towards sustainable production and use of biofuels Stefan Bringezu Presentation Internatioal Seminar on Energy and Resource Productivity UCSB 17 Nov 2008 Santa Barbara Director Material Flows and Resource Management Member of the International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management
The presentation Historical sketch on the socio-industrial metabolism Current trends relevant for biofuel use Land use change and implications Options for more efficient and sustainable resource use Conclusions and metabolic outlook 1
Ancient stages of metabolic development The pre-industrial era 2
Ancient stages of metabolic development The industrial era 3
Current stage of metabolic development The agrofuels and biomaterials phase 4
Global final energy consumption in 2006 Source: REN21 (2007). 17 3 Nov 2008 Stefan Bringezu 5
Routes for primarily energetic use of biomass 6
Global production of liquid biofuels 2007 Source: REN21 (2007). 2007: 1.8% of global fuel 2008: 3.5% (ethanol 5.46%, biodiesel 1.5%) Source: SCOPE. Source: OECD/FAO 2008. 17 3 Nov 2008 Stefan Bringezu 7
International trade in biofuels 2007 Ethanol Source: OECD 2008b data compiled from F.O. Licht s (2008). Biodiesel Source: OECD 2008b Data compiled from LMC (2007a). 8
Policy driving biofuel demand and supporting production: targets, mandates, subsidies Blending mandates in at least 36 states/provinces and 17 countries at the national level until 2006 Mostly 10 15% for ethanol, and 2 5% biodiesel Various forms of subsidies, tax exemptions, feed-in tariffs etc. Intentions: - provide income to farmers, support rural development - energy security - climate mitigation Backed by earlier research indicating a. GHG benefits b. significant potentials for fuel cropping...both depending on assumptions on available land and yields 9
Greenhouse gas savings of biofuels compared to fossil fuels Sources: own compilation based on review of Menichetti/Otto 2008 for bioethanol and biodiesel; RFA 2008 for biomethane, bioethanol from residues and FT diesel. 10
Methodological caveats: An example - Effect of depreciation on GHG savings of biodiesel from palm oil Source: IFEU et al. 2007. 11
Global crop yields grow slower than in past 5years moving averages Source: based on FAOSTAT online data 2008. 12
Cereal yield increase came down to meet growth rate of world population Source: UN population statistics online; FAOSTAT online. 13
Global production of livestock products is increasing Source: OECD-FAO (2008) Note: Selected livestocks products include beef, pork, poultry, sheep meat and milk. *Data for 2010 are projections. 14
Global trends of population, yields and diet: cropland will be expanded for feeding the world with protein rich meals 160 Population Index 2004 = 100 140 120 100 80 60 2004 2030 Cropland Cropland per capita Cereals yields in DC Meat consumption in DC Source: UN population statistics ; FAO (2003, 2006); estimates based on Gallagher report 2008 15
Land use for fuel crops Actual land use 24-28 Mha for biofuels (2% gobal cropland) Trends for expansion particular in tropical countries (high yields) Brasil: - Sugare cane 9 mill ha in 2008 (up 27% since 2007) - Potential area for soybeans: 100 mill ha (23 Mha in 2005) - expansion at the expense of grasslands, savannahs (Cerrado) and tropical forests Indonesia: - oil palm plantations often on cleared forest land (2/3) - applications for expansion: 6 mio ha -> 25 mio ha - forest clearing 1/4 on peat soils 17 Nov 2008 Stefan Bringezu 16
Estimates of future global biofuels use and crop land requirement - 1/2 - Notes: *) lower value from linear interpolation of estimates for 7% biofuels to 14% biofuels (the latter as average of more domestic supply and more imports), upper value for 14% and more domestic supply. **) The lower figure takes into account the avoided land use benefits of co-products, 2nd generation technologies from wastes and residues and assumes significant improvements in yield. The higher estimate is a gross figure, for the low yield scenario, not taking into account the anticipated benefits of co-products and without a positive contribution from 2nd generation technologies. 17
Estimates of future global biofuels use and crop land requirement - 2/2 - Notes: ***) The lower figures refer to the OLSR version, higher figures for the PCCR version of the EPPA model (MIT Emissions Predictions and Policy Analysis Model). OLSR stands for Observed Land Supply Response and considers the response in land conversion in recent years representative of the long-term response. PCCR means Pure Conversion Cost Response and simulates unrestricted conversion of natural forest and grassland as long as costs are covered by returns. ****) The least amount of land is required when palm oil and sugarcane is considered (142 Mha), whereas soybean and maize crops at indicative yields require 600 Mha. Source: own compilation after sources indicated in table. 18
Implications of land use change GHG emissions - The "carbon debt" - Fargione et al. 2008 19
Implications of land use change GHG emissions - mitigation by 1st generation biofuels questionable GHG balance estimate*, in 2030 10% biofuels could substitute fossil fuels emitting 0.8 Gt CO 2 LUC induced additional emissions: 0.44 to 1.7 Gt CO 2 *Ravindranath et al. 2009 20
Example of a net consuming country: Global land use of Germany for biomass consumption Policy targeted BAU: biofuel demand will contribute to expansion of global crop land 21 Source: Bringezu et al. 2008
Biofuels for German supply: Land use change will induce GHG emissions Gross production land for Biodiesel Net consumption land for all agricultural goods (additonal to basis of 2004) In 2030 BAU I BAU II BAU I BAU II Land requirements in Mha 7.21 6.88 2.49 3.44 of which: Palm oil Indonesia 0.56 1.09 0.19 0.55 of which: Soya beans Brazil 6.65 5.79 2.29 2.89 GHG Emissions absolute from LUC in Mt CO 2 -Equivalents a 37 54 13 27 GHG Mitigation through Biodiesel b -14-17 -14-17 Net-Effect GHG for Biodiesel a plus b Year when GHG saving begin 2039 2050 23 37-1 10 GHG Mitigation through Biomass c -25-35 -25-35 Net-Effect GHG for Biomass a plus c 12 19-12 -8 In particular biodiesel imports will lead to increased GHG emissions due to land use change - even in case of successful certification 22 Source: Bringezu et al. 2008
Implications of land use change Biodiversity loss losses due to habitat change, invasive species, pollution benefits from mitigated climate change can not compensate losses by habitat conversion for decades Source: Eickhout et al. 2008. 23
We can do better Options for a more efficient and sustainable use of resources Increasing yields and optimizing agricultural production Restoring formerly degraded land Stationary use of bioenergy Use of waste and production residues Cascading use of biomass Mineral Based Renewable Energy Systems Increase efficiency in fuel consumption Improving diets and reducing food waste 24
Energy yields for different use paths of biomass: Higher potential of stationary use Energy yield in [GJ/ha] Source: SRU 2007 (adapted from LFU 2004: Arnold et al. 2006; DENA 2006; FNR 2005b: 2005a; 2006a; Keymer & Reinhold 2006; Schindler & Weindorf 2006) Note: SRP = short-rotation plantation, BtL = biomass-to-liquid, PP = power plant, CHP = combined heat and power, EtOH = ethanol, SB = sugar beet 25
CO 2 avoidance from alternative uses of land Wood substituting coal provides still highest benefit Source: Edwards et al. (2007) 26
Stationary use of biofuels provides communities in DCs with high valued power supply Source: http://www.sonne-ueber-mbinga.de/ Location: Mbinga/Tansania 27
Multifunctional Biomass Systems Schematic Overview Land use - Production of Biomass Wood (short/long term rotation) Perennial herbaceous crops (e.g. miscanthus) Other crops (oilseed, sugar, starch) Multiple utility Material use Construction Food/fodder Chemicals Pulp and Paper Other Waste-to-energy + Recycling: cascading Energy use Electricity Heat Fuels Source: after Dornburg (2004). 28
Comparative LCA: biomass vs. fossil resources Median in inhabitant equivalents per 100 ha 100 0-100 -200-300 Energy (electricity/heat) Fuels Acidification Potential Eutrophication Potential Global Warming Potential Non-renewable Energy Consumption Commodities Source: Weiß et al. 2004, ZAU 29
Estimates of bioenergy potential: significant contribution of residues and waste Source: IEA 2007b after Berndes et al., 2003; Smeets et al., 2007; Hoogwijk et al., 2005a. 30
Biofuels Germany: Alternative strategies with lower global land requirements and higher GHG mitigation potential Global land use can only be reduced significantly by changes on demand side 31
What will drive the car of the future? Developing countries long for mobility Ferrari F430 runs on biofuel Source Fotos: Jeff McNeely 32
Designing cars different: there are significant potentials for energy and resource efficiency short-medium term long term Loremo: 450 kg 1.5 l/km Pac car: 32 kg 4.8 g hydrogen/100km 33
Conclusions for a more sustainable resource management Using biomass for capturing solar energy is rather inefficient Biomass is better used for material purposes Energy should then be recovered from waste and residues Cascading need to be further explored and developed Enhancing efficient u s e of biomass and minerals may be more rewarding than increasing the supply 34
Future features of metabolic development Resource efficiency and carbon recycling 35
Many thanks for your attention! stefan.bringezu@wupperinst.org