ADMS-Airport and its application to PSDH and the R3/Mixed Mode consultation for Heathrow Study conducted for DfT David Carruthers Cambridge Environmental Research Consultants OMEGA International Conference on Airport Air Quality London, October 14 2008
Contents Key Factors affecting AQ at Airports Features of ADMS-Airport Model Set-Up and Emissions AQ Monitoring at Heathrow Model Performance and Results
1) Key factors affecting air quality at airports
Key factors affecting air quality at airports Emissions Background concentrations Meteorology Near field dispersion processes Chemical reactions
2) Features of ADMS-Airport
Features of ADMS-Airport An extension of ADMS-Urban Gaussian type model nested in regional trajectory model Includes chemical reaction scheme, meteorological preprocessor, Monin-Obukhov and mixed layer scaling for boundary layer structure Allowance for up to 6500 sources: road (1500, each with up to 50 vertices), point, line area and volume (1500), grid sources (3000) and up to 500 runway sources (exhaust modelled as moving jets) Other airport features Hour by hour time varying data Multi-segment line sources e.g. taxi ways GIS link displays line, volume and runway sources
Features: MODELLING EXHAUSTS AS MOVING JETS - TAKE-OFF Models engine exhausts as moving jet sources As the aircraft accelerates buoyancy and emissions increasingly spread along the runway the exhaust jet sees a faster ambient wind speed, this affects the plume rise The plume from the faster aircraft rises less than that from a slower aircraft
Local and Regional Scales Box model domain Main model domain First source Backgound monitoring site U Main model nested within large, area-wide trajectory model
3) Model Set-Up and Emissions
Heathrow: SCENARIOS 2010 Segregated Mode (2010SM) 2015 Segregated Mode (2015SM) 2015 Segregated Mode with Easterly Preference (2015EP) 2015 Segregated Mode with No Cranford Agreement (2015NoC) 2015 Mixed Mode (2015MM) 2015 Mixed Mode with traffic mitigation (2015MMRd) 2030 Mixed Mode (2030MM) 2020 Third Runway (2020R3) 2030 Third Runway (2030R3)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 280 290 300 310 320 330 340 350 100 200 300 400 500 600 Heathrow: METEOROLOGICAL DATA 2002 0 0 3 1.5 6 3.1 10 5.1 16 8.2 (knots) (m/s) Wind speed 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270
Heathrow: BACKGROUND CONCENTRATIONS, AVERAGE 60 50 Annual Average (µg/m³) 40 30 20 % Harwell 220 to 330 330 to 60 % 135 to 220 % Wicken Fen 60 to 135 Lullington Heath % % Rochester % Harwell % Wicken Fen 184 to 4 % 4 to 184 Lullington Heath % % Rochester NOx NO2 O3 PM10 10 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year
Heathrow: EMISSION SOURCES Gridded sources for all of London (LAEI,NAEI) Roads local to Heathrow from LAEI (London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory) and the Heathrow Inventory (Heathrow area road traffic data from Hyder) LTO: taxi-in, taxi-out, landing, approach, initial climb, climb out (AEA) Other: APU, airside vehicles, car parks, taxi ranks modelled as area or volume sources (AEA)
Heathrow: ANNUAL NOx EMISSIONS, ROAD & AIRPORT 6000 5000 4000 t/yr) NOx emissions (t 3000 Road Airport 2000 1000 0 2002 Base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 MM 2030 R3
Heathrow: PRIMARY NO2 EMISSIONS 25% 20% Road Traffic Primary NO2 15% 10% 5% Heathrow area Rest of London 0% 2002 2010 2015 2020 2030 Year Industrial sources: 10% primary NO2 assumed Primary NO2 for aircraft depends on thrust 100% - 4.5%; 85% - 5.3%; 30% - 15.0%; 7% - 37.5%
Heathrow: TRAFFIC EMISSION FACTORS Light duty vehicles, arabic numerals: 4, 5, 6 Heavy duty vehicles, roman numerals: IV, V, VI Motorcycles, arabic numerals: 4, 5, 6 but may have different entry dates from the light duty vehicles Euro 5 and V Euro 6 and VI Petrol cars Jan 2010 - Petrol LGVs Jan 2011 - Diesel cars Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Diesel LGVs Jan 2011 Jan 2016 HDVs Oct 2008 Jan 2013
Heathrow: TRAFFIC EMISSION FACTORS RIGID HDV 12 EURO V & VI rigid (urban, 2010) 10 emission factor (g g/km) 8 6 4 2 EURO V EURO VI P07 - EURO V P07 - EURO VI 0 0 50 100 150 speed
Heathrow: TRAFFIC EMISSION FACTORS ARTIC HDV 12 EURO V & VI articulated (urban, 2010) 10 emission factor (g g/km) 8 6 4 2 EURO V EURO VI P07 - EURO V P07 - EURO VI 0 0 50 100 150 speed
Heathrow: CURRENT AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS TAKE-OFF 1 BA have developed a method to relate information on take-off thrust to be derived from information on actual take-off weight The methodology is based on analysis of an extensive set of FDR and weight data for the fleet at Heathrow The method has been extended for use with airlines The method has been extended for use with airlines other than BA and aircraft outside the data set by adding 5% to the estimate of thrust to account for uncertainties
Heathrow: CURRENT APU EMISSIONS NOX BA defined 6 APU class, each aircraft at Heathrow was assigned to one the classes Model emission indices were derived by BA from the detailed manufacturers data PM10 BA found a large variability in modal PM10 emission rates The variability was found to be reduced if the PM10 emission rates were expressed as a function of the corresponding NOX index Three classes of APU were defined with different NOX-PM10 relationships
Heathrow: FUTURE AIRCRAFT EMISSIONS TAKE-OFF Based on judgement by Qinetiq on evolution of aircraft engines for current fleet and future fleet. Takes into account manufacturers targets, technology expectations Emissions primarily characterised in terms relative to CAEP/4 limits Higher average take-off thrust settings on R3
4) AQ Monitoring at Heathrow
Heathrow: AMBIENT MONITORING SITES 1
Heathrow: MONITORED NOX CONCENTRATIONS NO x trends with 2002 and 2010 predictions (mg/m 3 ) NO x concentration 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16 LHR17 LHR18 LHR2 predicted LHR5 predicted LHR6 predicted LHR8 predicted LHR10 predicted LHR11 predicted LHR14 predicted LHR15 predicted LHR16 predicted LHR17 predicted LHR18 predicted 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year
Heathrow: MONITORED NO2 CONCENTRATIONS NO 2 trends with 2002 and 2010 predictions /m 3 ) NO 2 concentration (mg/ 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16 LHR17 LHR18 LHR2 predicted LHR5 predicted LHR6 predicted LHR8 predicted LHR10 predicted LHR11 predicted LHR14 predicted LHR15 predicted LHR16 predicted LHR17 predicted LHR18 predicted 0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Year
Heathrow: MONITORED NO2/NOX RATIO 0.8 NO 2 / NO x ratio trend NO 2 / NO x ratio 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16 LHR17 LHR8 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year
5) Model performance and Results
250 70 200 LHR10 60 LHR10 lled NOx (ug/m3) Model 150 100 50 LHR6 LHR11 LHR5 LHR14 LHR8 LHR15 LHR16 LHR2 Model lled NO2 (ug/m3) 50 40 30 20 10 LHR16 LHR11 LHR5 LHR15 LHR14 LHR6 LHR8 LHR2 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 Measured NOx (ug/m3) 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Measured NO2 (ug/m3) Scatter plot comparison of monitored and modelled annual average NOX and NO2
Box and whisker plot of the ratio of modelled to monitored NO x concentration 10 Ratio of NO x concentration 1 LHR2 Box and whisker plots for the ratio of (calculated/monitored) concentrations, NO X (top) and NO 2 (bottom). 0.1 LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16 10 Box and whisker plot of the ratio of modelled to monitored NO 2 concentration The lines indicate the 75 th, 50 th and 25 th percentiles and the lines extend from the 95 th to 5 th percentile. Ratio of NO 2 concentration 1 0.1 LHR2 LHR5 LHR6 LHR8 LHR10 LHR11 LHR14 LHR15 LHR16
LHR2 diurnal variation ADMS-Airport (solid line) compared with measured data (dotted line), different runway use 160 140 D LHR2-LHR8 Measured D LHR2-LHR8 Modelled A LHR2-LHR8 Measured A LHR2-LHR8 Modelled 120 (ug/m3) NOx concentration 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Hour of the day
181000 200 Base Case NOX 180000 175 150 179000 125 100 No orthing (metres) 178000 75 177000 50 40 176000 30 175000 20 10 174000 5 2 173000 1 503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000 Easting (metres) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000
181000 80 Base Case NO2 180000 70 179000 60 Norrthing (metres) 178000 50 177000 40 176000 35 175000 30 20 174000 10 173000 0 503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000 Easting (metres) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Base Case ozone 181000 180000 179000 178000 45 42 39 36 Northing (metres) 177000 176000 175000 33 30 27 24 174000 21 173000 18 15 503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000 Easting (metres) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000
181000 181000 50 50 180000 45 180000 45 179000 40 179000 40 Northing (metres) 178000 177000 176000 175000 174000 173000 503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000 Easting (metres) 181000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 PM10 due to -All sources (top left) -Airport and other airport sources (top right) -Road sources (bottom) Northing (metres) 180000 179000 178000 177000 176000 175000 174000 173000 35 30 25 20 10 5 4 3 2 1 Northing (metres) 178000 177000 176000 175000 174000 173000 503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000 Easting (metres) 503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000 Easting (metres) 50 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 45 40 35 30 25 20 10 5 4 3 2 1 35 30 25 20 10 5 4 3 2 1 0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Page 41, Adding Capacity at Heathrow Airport: Consultation Document, Department for Transport, November 2007
Predicted NO 2 concentrations 2002 Base Case 2010 SM 2015 SM 181000 180000 179000 178000 Northing (metres) 177000 176000 175000 174000 173000 503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000 Easting (metres) 2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 R3 181000 180000 179000 178000 Northings (metres) 177000 176000 175000 174000 173000 503000 504000 505000 506000 507000 508000 509000 510000 511000 512000 Eastings (metres)
Scenarios: ANNUAL AVERAGE CONCENTRATION OF NOx and NO2 ACROSS THE DOMAIN 90 80 70 Annual average e (µg/m³) 60 50 40 30 Average NOx Average NO2 20 10 0 2002 base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 R3 2030 MM
Scenarios: NUMBER OF PROPERTIES & POPULATION PREDICTED TO EXCEED NO2 LIMIT Case Properties Population 2002 Base 7336 17581 2010SM 1386 3126 2015SM 56 139 2015MM 91 199 2015MMrd 35 75 2030MM 0 0 2020R3 0 0 2030R3 0 0
Scenarios: NUMBER OF PROPERTIES PREDICTED TO EXCEED NO2 LIMIT 8000 7000 Properties Exceed ding 40µg/m³ 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2002 base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 R3 2030 MM
Scenarios: PERCENTAGE AREA OF DOMAIN EXCEEDING NO2 LIMIT 25 Percentage area exc ceeding 40µg/m³ 20 15 10 5 0 2002 base 2010 SM 2015 SM 2015 MM 2020 R3 2030 R3 2030 MM
Scenarios: PDFs OF ANNUAL AVERGAE NO2 CONCENTRATIONS 0.12 0.1 0.08 ity Probabili 0.06 2002 Base 2015MM 2030MM 2030 R3 0.04 0.02 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Annual average NO2 (µg/m³)
Scenarios: AREA EXCEEDING NO2 LIMIT AS A FUNCTION OF AIRPORT AND ROAD NOX EMISSIONS 4500 Average NOx Emissions fr rom Road Traffic (t/yr) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Size = Area Exceeding 40µg/m³ 2015 MM 2030 MM 2002 Base 2030 R3 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Average NOx Emissions from Airport (t/yr) 2010 SM 2015 SM 2020 R3
Conclusions Key factors affecting pollutant concentrations in the neighbourhood of airports include the following: Emissions including primary NO 2 Background concentrations e.g. O 3 Meteorology Near field dispersion processes Chemical reactions Heathrow Mixed Mode and R3 Consultation period over; DfT preparing response