Finding Global End Use Markets for the Growing LPG Supply March 7, 2017 Dr. Walt Hart, Vice President, IHS Natural Gas Liquids Walt.Hart@ihsmarkit.com
2 Finding Global End Use Markets for the Growing LPG Supply Crude & Natural Gas LPG Production LPG Demand Chemical Demand for LPG LPG Trade LPG Prices Parting Thoughts
Crude and Natural Gas Outlook 3
US natural gas demand growth will be driven by the power sector and LNG exports 4
US Gas production is expected to recover in mid 2017 5
North America gas supply is huge and low cost 6
US oil supply has hit bottom, and is set to push higher even with oil prices in the $50s 7
8 A roughly balanced oil market suggests further price gains are likely to be limited Upside Risk: Thin spare capacity Downside Risks: US or Libya overproduction; Lower global economic growth 8
9 Global conventional base production average aggregate decline rate of ~3% requires new tranches of supply Global base production aggregate decline rate is 2.8% (CAGR) from 2015-40
10 We expect crude oil and natural gas to maintain a price differential Brent Crude Oil and Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Constant 2015 USD/barrel Constant 2015 USD/MMBTU Brent Crude Oil (constant USD/barrel) Henry Hub natural gas (constant $/MMBTU) 0 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
LPG Production Outlook 11
LPG production growth remains strong in the US and Canada, but other regions are also growing quickly 12
Most global LPG growth is driven by only a few regions that already have more LPG than they need 13
Middle East LPG production will continue to grow but not all will be exported 14
LPG Demand Outlook 15
Global LPG demand growth will continue to be led by Asia and the Middle East 16
Residential / Commercial LPG demand is growing steadily but chemicals demand is growing faster 17
Roughly half of global LPG demand is in five countries 18
China and India are the major drivers of global residential / commercial demand growth 19
20 China s LPG demand growth will be a mixture of residential / commercial and chemical end uses Demand excludes re-exports
21 India s LPG demand growth will be nearly all for residential / commercial end uses Demand excludes exports
22 Saudi Arabia s LPG demand is dominated by chemicals Demand excludes exports
Japan s LPG demand is likely to decline driven by a gradual decline in residential / commercial demand 23
The US must export propane because domestic demand can t keep up with shale-based production even at lower oil prices 24
US butane exports will also increase as domestic demand is saturated and export terminal capacity becomes available 25
Chemical Demand for LPG 26
27 Top Ten Petrochemical Markets for LPG by Country 2016 estimate (Million Tonnes LPG): United States 26.9 Saudi Arabia 14.5 China 6.2 Japan 3.9 Netherlands 3.5 Iran 2.3 United Kingdom 2.2 Russia 2.1 Thailand 2.1 Korea 1.8 Source: IHS
28 Global ethylene production growth is coming mainly from ethane <2 million ton increase in ethylene from LPG during 2015-25
29 Typical Yields of Ethylene Cracker Feedstocks (%) Ethane has a much higher yield to ethylene than heavier feedstocks
Global propylene production growth is coming mainly from on purpose methods such as PDH 30
31 Global polypropylene demand is mainly driven by Asia ~27 million ton increase in South and East Asia during 2015-25
32 Ethylene production growth in NE Asia is coming mainly from naphtha and coal ~1.4 million ton increase in ethylene from LPG during 2015-25
33 NE Asia propylene production growth is coming mainly from on purpose methods such as PDH Coal / methanol to propylene will grow faster than PDH; PDH growth ~6.7 million tons during 2015-25
LPG Trade Outlook 34
The US will remain the world s largest LPG exporting country *approximate 35
36 Dramatic increases in US exports have resulted in major changes in global LPG trade flows X X X More Less Mostly Gone
Global exports will need to move to meet with demand from Asia 37
With Latin America saturated and Europe very competitive, most incremental US exports will need to move to Northeast Asia 38
The majority of imports to Northeast Asia will likely come from the US / Canada by the end of the decade 39
40 The Middle East should continue to dominate imports to Southeast Asia Other is mostly from other Asia countries
The Middle East is ideally situated to supply India 41
Waterborne LPG exports have become increasingly rich in propane 42
LPG Prices 43
Propane prices weakened against crude oil for about a decade 44
US propane prices have been depressed by a lack of export terminal infrastructure 45
US normal butane prices will also need to maintain a differential to other global benchmarks 46
Parting Thoughts 47
48 Parting Thoughts In the long term global oil prices are likely to rise to reflect the expense of obtaining oil from more challenging sources Global LPG supply is being driven by only four main sources: the Middle East, the US, Russia and China all but one of these are gas processing-based supplies About half of global LPG demand is centered in five countries and not all of these domestic markets are growing Global demand is underpinned by residential / commercial end uses, but chemical feedstocks continue to be the market clearing mechanism If growth from premium demand sources such as res / com is lower than we forecast, it is likely there will be downward pressure on global prices to stimulate chemical demand There is enough polypropylene demand to consume forecast PDH production, but that assumes PDH will compete with other on-purpose propylene production The US is likely to overtake the Middle East as the primary exporter to Northeast Asia by the end of the decade Waterborne cargoes are becoming increasingly rich in propane, while butane rich markets exist in the fastest growing country markets If US export terminal capacity keeps up with export demand, US LPG price trends are likely to more closely follow the price trends of the other international LPG benchmarks
For more information about this report or IHS in general, please contact Dr. Walt Hart Vice President, NGL Research & Consulting +1 832 679 7240 Walt.Hart@ihsmarkit.com IHS Customer Care: Americas: +1 800 IHS CARE (+1 800 447 2273); CustomerCare@ihs.com Europe, Middle East, and Africa: +44 (0) 1344 328 300; Customer.Support@ihs.com Asia and the Pacific Rim: +604 291 3600; SupportAPAC@ihs.com IHS TM ENERGY COPYRIGHT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER 2016 IHS. For internal use of IHS clients only. No portion of this report may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent, with the exception of any internal client distribution as may be permitted in the license agreement between client and IHS. Content reproduced or redistributed with IHS permission must display IHS legal notices and attributions of authorship. The information contained herein is from sources considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the opinions and analyses that are based upon it, and to the extent permitted by law, IHS shall not be liable for any errors or omissions or any loss, damage, or expense incurred by reliance on information or any statement contained herein. In particular, please note that no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no reliance should be placed on, any projections, forecasts, estimates, or assumptions, and, due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events and results may differ materially from forecasts and statements of belief noted herein. This report is not to be construed as legal or financial advice, and use of or reliance on any information in this publication is entirely at client s own risk. IHS and the IHS logo are trademarks of IHS.