Tropical Timber Trends The Role of Tropical Softwoods PRESENTED BY: Frances Maplesden INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION
CONTENT Tropical timber supply Tropical timber production and trade Primary and SPWPs Major trends and issues Tropical softwoods Relative importance in tropical trade Future trends Conclusions
TROPICAL TIMBER SUPPLY
Forest area/total area (%) 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Forest Cover, ITTO Producers, 1980-2005. 1980 1990 2000 2005 All producers Latin America Asia Africa
Tropical Forest Plantations REGION AREA OF PRODUCTIVE FOREST PLANTATIONS (1) (000 hectares) ROUNDWOOD PRODUCTION FROM PLANTATIONS, 2004 (2) (000 m 3 ) PLANTATION SHARE OF ROUNDWOOD PRODUCTION (2) Asia-Pacific 26 640 66 800 46.1 Africa 3 528 3 580 8.0 (%) Latin America & Caribbean 8 036 84 900 63.4 TOTAL 36 136 155 280 47.9 (1) Source: FAO 2005 adapted by STCP (2) Source: STCP fieldwork
Supply - Policy Issues Deforestation and forest degradation of natural forests Legality: wood supply, industry and trade Climate change International, government and consumer responses CITES listings Responsible purchasing - Government procurement policies; EU TTAP CSR policies EU FLEGT measures Certification and SFM
Certified Forest as a Percentage of Total Forest Area by Region, 2005-2006 60 50 40 30 20 10 2005 2006 % of total forest area certified 0 North America EU/EFTA Oceania EECCA Africa Latin America Asia Source: UNECE 2006
TROPICAL TIMBER PRODUCTION AND TRADE
Tropical Log Production, Major Countries 2003-2006 30000 Volume 1000m3 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 Brazil Malaysia India Indonesia Nigeria
Tropical Log Exports, Major Countries 1996-2006 8000 7000 Volume 1000 m3 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Malaysia PNG Gabon Myanmar Congo, Republic of
Tropical Log Imports, Major Countries 1996-2006 Volume 1000 m3 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 China India Japan Taiwan P.O.C. Thailand Total EU
Tropical Log Price Trends Jan 2004- Sep 2007 Price index (Jan 1997=100) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Meranti SQ & Up African Mahogany L-MC Sapele L-MC Keruing SQ & Up Obeche L-MC Iroko L-MC Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Source: ITTO Market Intelligence Service
Tropical Sawntimber Production, Major Countries 2003-2006 Volume 1000m3 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 Brazil Malaysia India Indonesia Thailand
Tropical Sawnwood Exports, Major Countries 1996-2006 4000 3500 Volume 1000 m3 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Brazil Cameroon
Tropical Sawnwood Price Trends, Jan 2004 - Sep 2007 150 Price index (Jan 1997=100) 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Meranti Sapele khaya Jatoba/Courbaril Iroko Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Source: ITTO Market Intelligence Service
ITTO Consumer Country Imports of Primary and Secondary Products, 1991-2006 14 Value (US$ billion) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Primary Secondary 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
China Exports of SPWPs, 2000-2006 Value (US$ million) 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Wood furniture Builder's Woodwork Mouldings Other SPWPs 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: COMTRADE
Imports of Wood Furniture and Parts from ITTO Producers, by Major Importers, 2005 3500 3000 2500 Value US$ million 2000 1500 1000 500 0 EU Total Japan USA Netherlands UK France
Imports of SPWPs from ITTO Producers, by Major Importers, 2005 700 Value US$ million 600 500 400 300 200 100 Builders woodwork Other SPWP Mouldings 0 USA Japan UK Germany France Belgium Canada
Trade Issues US economic downturn; Japan declining market; rapidly growing Chinese and Indian economies Market access: public procurement, certification China remains a formidable competitor for SPWPs Tropical producer SPWP trade well below potential Statistical discrepancies
TROPICAL SOFTWOODS
Tropical Coniferous Natural Forest Area REGION FOREST AREA (million ha) Tropical Asia-Pacific 1.3 Mexico 16.5 Other Central America & 4.6 Caribbean South America 0.3 Tropical Africa 0.5 TOTAL 23.2 Source: ITTO estimate 2002
Natural forests Pinus spp (Mexico - 55 endemic species, Honduras, Guatemala, Caribbean countries) Agathis-araucaria-podocarps (PNG, Fiji Islands, Indonesia, Myanmar, Malaysia, Southern Indo-China, Philippines) Plantations Major Commercial Tropical Softwood Species, Location Brazilian pine plantations predominantly in temperate regions. Pinus taeda, Pinus elliotii (Brazil) Pinus caribaea (Fiji Islands, Malaysia) Pinus merkusii (Indonesia) Araucaria (PNG)
Log Production, ITTO Producers, 2006 Production (million m3) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Africa Asia-Pacific Latin America &Carribean Coniferous Non-coniferous
Sawn Production, ITTO Producers, 2006 25000 Production (1000 m3) 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Africa Asia-Pacific Latin America/Caribbean Coniferous Non-coniferous
Plywood Production, ITTO Producers, 2006 16000 Production (1000 m3) 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Africa Asia-Pacific Latin America/Caribbean Coniferous Non-coniferous
CONCLUSIONS Forest coverage declining in ITTO producer countries; pressure will continue to restrict supply from natural forests; role of plantations in supply will increase. China s role in tropical trade is both as main market for primary products and formidable competitor in SPWP markets. Demographic changes will impact on future tropical trade. Public concerns about legality, climate change and deforestation will continue to intensify. Tropical product prices stable or rising reflecting greater demand, disruptions in log supply, export restrictions. Softwood exports from tropical countries insignificant in global and EU trade. Softwood plantations will expand although limited impact on EU markets expected.
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