2 Richard Overview of current situation M. Taylor, Executive Director International Hydropower Association (IHA) Recent developments in the hydropower market 1. Current situation 2. Synergy with other renewables 3. Financial challenges 4. Measuring sustainability performance 1
1 Current situation 2
The Global Electricity Supply by source Graph 2: Estimated Global Power Generation 2010 (*20 267 TWh) Other renewables (Source: IHA Activity Report 2011)
Existing Global Electric Power Capacity at the end of 2010 15% 5% 3% 76% Hydro Wind Biomass Solar PV Geo. Solar Th. Tidal Hydropower Wind Biomass Solar PV Geothermal Solar Thermal Tidal 1,010 GW 198 GW 62 GW 40 GW 11 GW 1.1 GW 0.3 GW Source: REN21 Renewables 2011 Global Status Report
Run-of-river hydro Hydropower typology, covering all scales of development Storage hydro Pump-storage hydro
Baseload and flexible generation Ex: France Nuclear Thermal Hydropower Demand Pumping Time (daily fluctuations) Source: EDF
Proportion of Hydropower Developed, by Region ~50% 75% 22% 7% 33% ~70% 2008 hydro production: ~ 3200 TWh/y Realistic potential production: ~ 9000 TWh/y (Sources: EIA 2010 and IHA 2010, CHA, 2011)
Running out of potential? 163,000 CANADA TOTAL (MW) 17,664 25,000 11,524 20 77 74,000 4,307 200 33,137 8,540 25 11,775 8,785 4,200 12,608 44,100 3,955 1,600 909 300 854 3,000 6,795 4,500 5,029 10,270 5,500 3,700 37,459 8,349 614 922 3 8,499 Undeveloped potential Aggregate of planned projects Developed Potential 403 Canada re-evaluating its potential (Courtesy of Canadian Hydropower Association)
New Hydropower Development 2010 Status of the Hydropower Sector Hydro under construction Asia and South America most active in development, China leads with 110 GW of new hydro targeted by 2020 Europe and North America continue to develop new hydro capacity with increased commitments Funding impedes more rapid development in Africa, although several projects are now underway.
2 Synergy with other renewables 10
The International Renewable Energy Alliance (REN Alliance) International Geothermal Association International Hydropower Association International Solar Energy Society World Bioenergy Association World Wind Energy Association Work priorities Potentials Scenarios Sustainability Finance Optimization Bridging the gap between practice and policy
Synergy with other renewables Hydropower Wind (MW) Load Hydro Wind Time (in hours) Schematic illustration
REN Alliance Policy Statement (TWh/y) IHA 2011 13
Regional Supergrid? -Strong international transmission grid -High flexibility in generation and demand with technical connection requirements for all resources -A revised power system control architecture for active control of distributed resources -Coherent energy systems overall Adapted from: concept of a EUMENA Supergrid based on HVDC power transmission as Electricity Highways to complement the conventional AC electricity grid, as developed by TREC in 2003.
3 Financial challenges 15
Electricity Generation Cost, by technology Eurelectric/VGB levelised costs of electricity (at 5% discount rate) 250 200 USD / MWh 150 100 50 0 Nuclear EPR Coal Bk Coal Br Coal Bk USC w/cc(s) Gas CCGT Onshore wind Offshore wind (Close) Offshore wind (Far) Hydro large (River) Hydro Large (Pump) Solar PV Solar thermal Investment costs O&M Fuel costs Waste management Carbon costs * Eurelectric - Union of the Electricity Industry in Europe (EU27 + Norway + Switzerland + Iceland + Turkey) * VGB PowerTech - European technical association for power and heat generation Source: IEA Projected Costs of Generating Electricity; 2010 Edition
Financial Characteristics Construction periods Financing challenge of hydro vs thermal plants of similar capacity New build Indicative cost Modernization Time period (~100 years)
Financial Characteristics The Clean Development Mechanism 2,786 projects registered by the UNFCCC CDM Executive Board by the start of February 2011. 822 (30%) are hydropower projects. Energy Efficiency 9% Other 11% Landfill gas 6% Hydro 30% Hydropower projects represent 51% (79,775,000) of the total credits delivered for renewable energy projects (157,533,000) so far. Trans-boundary CDM s have been approved and hydro projects are the first to be included. Biomass Energy 12% Methane Avoidance 13% Wind 19%
4 Measuring sustainability performance for decision making 19
Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Forum Stakeholder engagement 24 countries involved 1,308 stakeholders attended engagement activities 3,800 stakeholders receiving email updates during the consultation period Around 3,000 hits to the draft Protocol webpage IHA 2011 20
Field trials 20 trials of with draft Protocols, covering six continents, with projects of all types, sizes and life-cycle stages IHA 2011 21
Protocol documents Background document: Four methodology documents for four stages of development: Early stage Preparation Implementation Operation
Sustainability Profile: Presentation of Results P-1: Consultation & Communications P-23: Downstream Flow Regimes P-2: Governance 5 P-22: Reservoir Planning P-3: Demonstrated Need & Strategic Fit P-21: Water Quality 4 P-4: Siting & Design P-20: Erosion & Sedimentation 3 P-5: Environmental & Social Impact Assessment & Management P-19: Biodiversity & Invasive Species 2 P-6: Integrated Project Management P-18: Public Health 1 P-7: Hydrological Resource P-17: Cultural Heritage P-8: Infrastructure Safety P-16: Labour & Working Conditions P-9: Financial Viability P-15: Indigenous Peoples P-14: Resettlement P-13: Project-Affected Communities & Livelihoods P-10: Project Benefits P-11: Economic Viability P-12: Procurement
Statements of support clear success BMZ, Germany valuable tool WWF important Citi Bank We would like to congratulate IHA The World Bank
Hydro4LIFE Hydro4LIFE is a European Commission-funded project to assist the implementation of the Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol in the European Union. The project is 50% co-funded by the European Commission s Life+ Environment Policy and Governance programme, and 50% by IHA, with a total budget of 1.2 million. It runs from 1st September 2010 to 1st September 2013 and is coordinated by IHA. Sustainability Partners whose projects for assessment using the Protocol are situated within the European Union will participate in Hydro4LIFE.
IHA Sustainability Partners Partners engage with IHA to commit to applying the Protocol Sustainability Partners receive invaluable experience in the use of the Protocol, and the option to disclose sustainability performance at the earliest opportunity Each partnership includes: training; two Protocol assessments, one carried out by an accredited assessor; raised profile as a Sustainability Partner Ten partners signed up by July 2011
www.hydrosustainability.org 14 July 2011 Overview and governance 27
Conclusions Growing Demand and the Changing Role of Hydropower Hydropower is an advanced technology and can compete in modern markets Through water impoundment, hydropower (especially pumped storage) can absorb excess power in the grid at times of low demand and release it when needed Hydropower can help meet the increasing need for water management (growing demand for water and adaptation to intensifying drought and flooding) Demand is growing for regional water and energy development (power pools and river basin approaches), hydropower stands to play a major role here Hydropower s operational flexibility can work in synergy with other renewables, promoting greater penetration of variable sources Playing field is improving for all renewable technologies, but financial models need to be more technology specific Stakeholder confidence increased through sustainability Protocol
Reservoir Management Downstream Flow Regimes Communications and Consultation 5 4 Governance Environmental and Social Management Water Quality 3 Hydrological Resource Erosion and Sedimentation 2 1 Asset Reliability and Efficiency Biodiversity and Invasive Species 0 Infrastructure Safety Public Health Financial Viability Cultural Heritage Project Benefits Labour and Working Conditions Indigenous peoples Project-Affected Communities and Livelihoods Resettlement Thank you!