Energy as a Global Issue Summer School «Giacomo Ciamician» Sesto-Sexten (BZ), Italy June 22 rd 26 th, 2015 Vanni Lughi Department of Engineering and Architecture, University of Trieste, Italy vlughi@units.it
The key strategic framework
Energy as a Global Issue
Energy: A global issue - complexity Health Water Environment Security Energy Economy Food Population
Energy and Health
Energy and Population
Energy and Population DeLong JP et al, PLoS ONE 5, e13206 (2010) Installed power per capita [W] Energy might not be sufficient to sustain stabilization of the population
Energy, stability and security
Energy, stability and security Center for preventive action, US Council on Foreign Relations
Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change Mauna Loa observatory, Hawaii
Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change Carbon concentration always changes over time but never at the rate and to the levels that we have seen over the past 50 years
Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change Carbon emissions are antropogenic
Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change Moberg et al., Nature 433 (2005) Carbon concentration and temperature are correlated
Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change Temperature seems to be raising
Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change
Energy and the environment Emissions and climate change
The true evidence for global warming
Energy, Environment, and Economy
Energy and Economy
Energy and Food Food vs Energy dilemma (food cropland substituted by energy crops) Link between prices of food and prices of energy
Energy: A global issue - complexity Health Water Environment Security Energy Economy Food Population
Energy and complexity - a different standpoint - Complexity arising from large number of players and strong interconnectedness E.g.: Integration of different energy sources Smart grid
Energy Supply Chain
Energy Supply Chain Electricity
Energy Supply Chain Energy for transportation
Energy Supply Chain Thermal energy
Energy Supply Chain «Production» (Transformation) Storage Distribution End use Losses
Complexity of the Energy Supply Chain
Complexity of the Energy Supply Chain MASTER IN COMPLEX ACTIONS NEXT GENERATION LEADERS SISSA TRIESTE
Complexity of the Energy Supply Chain MASTER IN COMPLEX ACTIONS NEXT GENERATION LEADERS SISSA TRIESTE
Complexity of the Energy Supply Chain
Complexity of the Energy Supply Chain - global
Energy Supply Chain - Definitions
Losses in the energy supply chain
Efficiency in transformation and distribution (activate animation)
End-of-chain energy efficiency and saving The value more than doubles! (activate animation)
Energy: towards a carbon-free system
Global Energy Data
Long-term energy demand growth
Energy Transitions
Energy: Orders of Magnitude
Energy: Common units
Primary energy world consumption Million tonnes oil equivalent BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 BP p.l.c. 2015
Mtoe Global Energy Consumption 16000 14000 12000 World OECD BRICS 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Enerdata Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2014
Primary energy regional consumption pattern 2014 Percentage BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 BP p.l.c. 2015
Energy demand: Global imbalance
Primary energy sources: price dynamics
Price dynamics: the effect of shale gas
Price of energy from new sources
Price and Grid Parity Lessons learned from the photovoltaic technology Breyer C, Gerlach A. Global overview on grid parity Progress in photovoltaic: research and applications 2012. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. DOI 10.1002/pip.1254
Price and consumption Consumption per capita (toe), 2014 statista.com; BP energy statistics review 2015
Price and Subsidies Global subsidies for fossil fuels : 523 B$ in 2011 (+ 27% from 2010) Global subsidies for renewables: 88 B$ in 2011 (+ 24% from 2010) International Energy Agency Renewable Energy Status Report 2013
Energy Trading Dynamics
Energy Trading Dynamics
Future Trends
Scenarios (GEA)
Scenario Shell (source-focused)
Scenario IEA (2013)
Scenario WWF (EcoFYS)
Scenarios by Enerdata Global Energy Scenarios, Enerdata, 2015
Scenarios by Enerdata Global Energy Scenarios, Enerdata, 2015
Energy: towards a carbon-free system Global Energy Scenarios, Enerdata, 2015
Energy: what happened in 2014 Stabilization of energy consumption and of CO2 emissions, despite economic growth Interesting cases: EU28, India, China Global Energy Trends, Enerdata, 2015
Energy: what happened in 2014 Decrease of coal demand Gas demand was stable Global Energy Trends, Enerdata, 2015
A possible game changer: shale gas Projected shale gas extraction in EU-27 Estimates from: Macroeconomic impacts of shale gas extraction in the EU, 2014
Fossil fuel reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios at end 2014 Years BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 BP p.l.c. 2015
Oil is in fact going to end
Alternative resources Hydropower - Nuclear power - Geothermal enrgy - Tidal energy (non-solar alternative resources) Wind power Photovoltaics Biomass Waves
Alternative resources Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global Final Energy Consumption, 2013 REN21, 2015, Renewables 2015 Global Status Report
Alternative resources Average Annual Growth Rates of Renewable Energy Capacity and Biofuels Production, End-2009-2014 REN21, 2015, Renewables 2015 Global Status Report
Alternative resources Estimated Renewable Energy Share of Global Electricity Production, End- 2014 REN21, 2015, Renewables 2015 Global Status Report
Alternative resources
Energy Supply Chain «Production» (Transformation) Storage Distribution End use Losses
Imagine Future Scenarios Production Photovoltaics Electric grid Use Energy Storage Water electrolysis Solar thermodynamic Storage, Transportation, and Distribution (electricity) Fuel Cells Storage, Transportation, Reconversion (Hydrogen) Solar thermal Transportation (heat) short distance Biofuels Transportation (fuel)
Concluding remarks
Trends Diversification of the energy sources (mostly alternative/renewable) Mini- and microgeneration «Democratization» of energy Principle of locality of the source Integration of energy sources Higher complexity Storage Large scale to compensate unpredictability of renewable resources Small scale to enable reliability of local (integrated) systems Key role of social aspects! (see for example the case of photovoltaics in Italy)