Emerging Technologies in Emerging Economies with Emphasis on China & India Jarad Daniels Office of Fossil Energy U.S. Department of Energy 1
Coal is expected to play a key role in growth of Emerging Economies Coal input Mtoe 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 Power generation Other TE Other OECD EU27 Japan US Other DC India China 0 2005 2030 2005 2030 Global CO 2 emissions from coal: 11 GtCO 2 in 2005, 19 GtCO 2 in 2030 Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007, Reference scenario. 2
Electricity Generation by Fuel Type in 2005 (%) China, India, and USA Operational Capacity by Fuel Type (2005) INDIA USA CHINA 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Coal Gas Oil Hydro Nuclear Others / Renewables Country Total Capacity (MW) Coal Capacity (MW) India 116,860 67,296 USA 991,794 327,551 China 379,895 272,243 Data Source: Platts UDI, 2005 3
Age of Existing Coal-Fired Units in 2005 (Number of Units) in India, China, and USA 600 552 569 Number of Units 500 400 300 200 100 72 20 406 223 133 111 116 105 108 80 China India US 258 63 38 0 0-10 Years Old (1996-2005) 11-20 Years Old (1986-1995) 21-30 Years Old (1976-1985) 31-40 Years Old (1966-1975) 41Years and Older (1965) Data Source: Platts UDI, 2005 4
Capacity (MW) Age of Existing Coal-Fired Capacity in 2005 (MW) in India, China, and USA 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 132,862 112,7,79 5 105,780 82,554 China India US 77,287 40,000 20,000 0 17,12 6 4,937 0-10 Years Old (1996-2005) 25,245 26,631 11-20 Years Old (1986-1995) 19,9,92 2 17,0,015 21-30 Years Old (1976-1985) 6,776 5,956 31-40 Years Old (1966-1975) 2,329 1,8 5 2 41Years and Older (1965) Data Source: Platts UDI, 2005 5
Average Coal-Fired Power Plant Efficiencies China, India, and USA Country Average Efficiency (HHV) (%) OECD 36 USA 33-34 China ~30-32 India ~25-34 China s reported power efficiency is approaching OECD levels following rapid build up of new units over the last 5+ years India is improving too but not as fast as China owing to slower build up and the number of poor performing SEB stations, which represent about 2/3 of India s electricity generation 6
China is shifting rapidly to advanced coal technologies Average efficiency of coal-fired generation: 33.2% LHV Over 8,000 small, low-efficiency units <200 MW First 350 MW subcritical unit commissioned in 1982, first 600 MW subcritical unit in 1989 Has been building mostly large (200-800 MW) subcritical units Focus shifted to add large supercritical and ultrasupercritical units 3% of existing (30 units) and 9% of planned capacity with goal of 50% of new capacity by 2020 Domestic units of 600 MW under demonstration and imported 1,000-MW units under construction Ultra-supercritical units 4 x 1000-MW units recently commissioned 7
India is adopting advanced technologies more slowly Average efficiency of coal-fired generation: 27.6% LHV Poor quality coal (>40% ash) limits performance Currently, 100% subcritical pulverized coal 135 x 200-250 MW units since 1978 and 27 x 500 MW since 1984 commissioned by BHEL 1 st supercritical plant (3 x 660 MW) under construction at Sipat using South Korean technology Ultra-mega projects planned using 800-MW supercritical units 8
Environmental Regulations in China Focus on SO 2 and NOx New SO 2, NO x, and PM Emission Standards (1/1/04) SO 2, NO x, and PM standards within World Bank guidelines SO 2 standards, on par with OECD average, require use of low-sulfur coal and FGD controls Goal: FGD at 60% of thermal capacity by 2010 Government focus on developing cost-effective FGD systems NOx standards relatively modest compared to OECD Can be satisfied by Chinese low-nox burners but have begun importing SCNR and SCR systems PM emission standards require high-efficiency ESPs 9
China has installed SO 2 scrubbers at an astounding rate since 2005 600 500 China coal power Capacity (GWe) 400 300 200 US. coal power China SO2 scrubber 100 US. SO2 scrubber 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year 2006 and 2007 in China: Power plant addition 100 GW/yr Scrubber installation 100 GW/yr Slide Source: Professor Socolow, Princeton University 10
Environmental Regulations in India India does not have SO 2 or NOx stack emission standards for coal-fired power generation India does have PM emission controls and ambient air standards Government focus on improving overall coal conversion process: Reduce ash content of coal Build larger, more efficient units Renovate and modernize existing capacity Build plants closer to mines 11
Coal Technology Status in China and India Technology China India IGCC Gasifiers CFBC Yantai IGCC project under consideration for past decade. Several power and polygeneration projects being developed by major utilities. 37 on coal, 13 on petroleum and 1 on gas (25 Shell, 22 GE, 3 Sasol Lurgi, 1 GTI U-Gas) (35 Operating, 16 Planned) Many domestically built 50-200-MW units $2.5-M DOE/USAID/NTPC feasibility study for 100-MW unit completed. Pursuing a demo project of about 100 MW by NTPC. BHEL developed domestic technology, tested at 6- MW scale. 6 operating on petroleum and petcoke (5 Shell, 1 GE) Technology acquired through licensing. Four domestically built 125-MW units, including 2 firing lignite. 250-MW unit under installation at Neyveli Lignite. CTL/ Polygeneration Supercritical Ultra Supercritical First phase of Shenhua s direct liquefaction plant in Inner Mongolia to start operation in 2008, producing 1.08 million tons of liquid products (diesel, LPG, and naphtha). Total production of two phases is 5 million tons. Also, developing two indirect liquefaction plants with Sasol Polygeneration under study by others, including Hunnan International Technopolis Shenyang (HITS) using coal and waste/garbage and Datang Power (4 plants) using coal Several dozen units commissioned First plant commissioned early 2008 (Huaneng s 4 x 1000-MW Yuhuan Plant) Under study; on January 2007, Investment Commission said go forward, but not a near-term project Original license from Combustion Engineering (USA, now Alstom); scaled up by BHEL. No units constructed yet, but first plant announced by BHEL and TNEB for 2 x 800 plant at Tuticorin, Tamil Nadu. First imported unit 1980-MW (3 x 660 MW) Sipat to be commissioned in 2008 by Doosan Babcock (Korea), which will burn 43% ash coal. Three other projects already awarded to IPPs through tariff-based competitive bidding. Many more supercritical units in pipeline. Initial tie-up with Babcock Borsig. Recently, licensed Alstom boiler technology and Siemens steam turbine technology up to 660 MW. BHEL plans to develop up to 800 MW. No units constructed yet. 12
Thermal Power Technology R&D Priorities China R&D and manufacture of >600-MW SC/USC p.c. units Import state-of-the-art control technology for NO x and SO 2 Introduce large-scale gasification and coal liquefaction Polygeneration of Fuels & Power Focus on Chinese manufacture to control costs by: transfer foreign technologies to select equipment manufacturers via licenses and joint ventures participating in international R&D projects India Introduce large (660-MW) SC and USC plants Promote utilization of IGCC and CFBC Renovate and modernize old units License foreign technology 13
Institutional Capacity for Fossil Fuel RD&D and Technology Adoption Much Greater in China than India Entities Involved in Fossil Fuel RD&D and Manufacture Research Institutes Universities Conventional Technology Manufacturers China Many (w/commercial companies) Many (w/commercial companies) Many India Few Few Two Advanced Technology Manufacturers Few One Government Funding for R&D Significant Limited Government Ministries Responsible for RD&D and Technology Adoption Responsibilities divided (MOST supports R&D and NRDC supports commercialization) Responsibilities overlap (Ministries of Coal, Mines, Power, Petroleum & Natural Gas, and Dept. of S&T) India Note: NTPC has broke ground on national Energy Technology Centre and BHEL has announced 300 crore ($75M) CCT R&D Centre 14
DOE s Office of Fossil Energy Advanced (Coal) Power Systems Goals 2010: 45-50% Efficiency (HHV) 99% SO 2 removal NOx < 0.01 lb/mm Btu 90% Hg removal 2012: 90% CO 2 capture <10% increase in cost of electricity (COE) with carbon sequestration 2015 Multi-product capability (e.g., power + H 2 ) 60% efficiency (measured without carbon capture) 15
2007 World Gasification Survey Highlights What is: 3 Sasol plants in South Africa account for over 30% of world gasification production China has 35 operating gasification plants (11 new since 2004) with total syngas output of about 18% of worldwide production What is Planned: 16 new plants planned for China - 7 in start up growing to almost 25% of worldwide production In terms of product, Fischer Tropsch liquids will have largest share of planned growth, most of which is from single gas-to-liquids project in Qatar 15% of worldwide production 16
Existing and Potential CTL Projects Reference: from Headwaters Inc. J.N. Ward Senate Briefing 1/19/07 17
CTL Plant Size Small 10,000 bbl /day Large 50,000 bbl/day CTL Baseline Plant Economics Bare Erected Cost Coal Feed Rate Total Plant Costs Costs per Bbl day 4,000 t/d $800 M $80,000 25,000 t/d $3,650 M $73,000 Required Selling Price (RSP) range between $41- $60 per bbl - dependant on coal type, region, and plant size (65/45 debt/equity financing) http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/press/2007/07040- Coal_to_Liquids_Study.html 18
Gasifiers GE Energy (Chevron-Texaco) ConocoPhillips E-Gas Shell SCGP Siemens (GSP/Noell) KBR Transport Fuel Gas O 2 HP Steam Dry Coal Slag 19
Criteria Pollutants for All Cases 0.12 Emissions (lb/mmbtu) 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 SO2 NOx PM 0.02 0.01 0.00 GE GE w/co2 CoP CoP w/co2 Shell Shell w/co2 PC-sub PC-sub w/co2 PC-SC PC-SC w/co2 NGCC NGCC w/co2 Source: DOE/NETL Report: Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, May 2007 20
Gallons per/mwh 800 700 600 Comparison of Water Consumption for Various Fossil Plants 500 433 443 452 400 300 200 Cooling Tower Losses Flue Gas Losses Process Losses 511 370 372 301 341 345 283 714 598 639 536 100 0 106 26 77 25 78 29 105 34 E-Gas Shell GE R-C GE Quench 87 0 107 9 95 8 NGCC PC Sub PC Super Note: Cooling water requirements are estimated for generic Eastern US site Source: NETL Power Plant Water Usage and Loss Study revised May 2007 21
CO 2 Emissions for All Cases CO2 Emissions Normalized By Gross Output 2,000 1,780 1,800 1,681 CO2 emissions, lb/mwh 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 1,459 154 1,452 189 1,409 149 225 209 783 86 0 GEE GEE w/ CCS CoP CoP w/ CCS Shell Shell w/ CCS PC-Sub PC-Sub w/ CCS PC-SC PC-SC w/ CCS NGCC NGCC w/ CCS Source: DOE/NETL Report: Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, May 2007 22
Total Plant Cost Comparison 3000 2895 2870 2500 2496 $/kw ($2007) 2000 1500 1000 1841 1549 1575 1172 500 554 0 Avg IGCC Avg IGCC w/ CO2 Capture PC-Sub PC-Sub w/ CO2 Capture Total Plant Capital Cost includes contingencies and engineering fees PC-Super PC-Super w/ CO2 Capture NGCC NGCC w/ CO2 Capture Source: DOE/NETL Report: Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, May 2007 23
Cost of Electricity Comparison 14.00 cents/kwh ($2007) 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 7.79 10.63 6.40 11.88 6.33 11.48 6.84 9.74 2.00 0.00 Avg IGCC Avg IGCC PC-Sub PC-Sub w/ w/ CO2 CO2 Capture Capture January 2007 Dollars, Coal cost $1.80/10 6 Btu. Gas cost $6.75/10 6 Btu PC-Super PC-Super w/ CO2 Capture NGCC NGCC w/ CO2 Capture Source: DOE/NETL Report: Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, May 2007 24
Efficiency to electricity, net (HHV) 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Capturing CO 2 with Today s Technology Significantly Reduces Plant Efficiency 39.5 Gasification -19% 32.1 Avg IGCC Avg IGCC w/ CO2 Capture 36.8 Pulverized Coal Combustion 24.9 PC-Sub PC-Sub w/ CO2 Capture 39.1-32% -30% 27.2 PC-Super PC-Super w/ CO2 Capture Source: DOE/NETL Report: Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, May 2007 25
Capturing CO 2 with Today s Technology is Expensive Cost of Electricity Comparison cents/kwh ($2007) 14.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 Gasification Pulverized Coal Combustion 7.79 11.88 11.48 10.63 +36% +86% +81% 6.40 6.33 0.00 Avg IGCC Avg IGCC w/ CO2 Capture PC-Sub PC-Sub w/ CO2 Capture PC-Super PC-Super w/ CO2 Capture January 2007 Dollars, Coal cost $1.80/10 6 Btu Source: DOE/NETL Report: Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, May 2007 26
Benchmark: $30/tCO 2 Carbon emission charges in the neighborhood of $30/tCO 2 can enable scale-up of most of technologies, if supplemented with sectoral policy to facilitate transition. Form of Energy Natural gas Crude oil Coal Gasoline Electricity from coal Electricity from natural gas Equivalent to $30/tCO 2 ( $100/tC) $1.60/1000 scf $13/barrel $70/U.S. ton 25 /gallon (ethanol subsidy: 50 /gallon) 2.4 /kwh (wind and nuclear subsidies: 1.8 /kwh) 1.1 /kwh $30/tCO 2 is the current European Trading System price for 2008 emissions. At this price, current global emissions (30 GtCO 2 /yr) cost $900 billion/yr, 2% of GWP. Slide Source: Professor Socolow, Princeton University 27
For Additional Information U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy www.fe.doe.gov Jarad Daniels Jarad.Daniels@hq.doe.gov 28