CMAQ/BenMAP-based Health-Benefits Analysis in Support of the Georgia SIPs for O 3 and PM 2.5 Amit Marmur 5 th Annual CMAS Conference, October 16-18, 2006
Overview Overview of BenMAP Summary of O 3 and PM 2.5 sensitivity analysis Quantifying the health benefits from O 3 and PM 2.5 control strategies Preliminary findings and future research
Benefits Analysis with BenMAP: A US-EPA Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program Modeled (or measured) reductions in pollutant levels Reduced morbidity, mortality, health costs
BenMAP Flow Diagram Population based GIS Measured or modeled AQ data examine benefits of various control strategies using AQ modeling examine benefits of reducing measured ambient concentrations to specific levels Concentration-response functions, incident rates and valuation estimates to quantify changes in health endpoints and associated $-benefits Can produce estimates at the population grid scale, county, state, or national level
Reasons to Assess Benefits Evaluate and prioritize various attainment strategy options Consider air quality management across multiple pollutants and regions Communicate impacts to decision-makers, stakeholders and public
Health Effects Quantified in BenMAP Health endpoint Mortality Chronic Bronchitis Nonfatal heart attacks Hospital admissions Asthma ER visits Acute respiratory symptoms Asthma attacks Work loss days Worker productivity School absence rates PM Ozone
Current Mean Values for Health Effects (2000 $) * ** * - WTP: Willingness to pay ** - COI: Cost of illness
Summary of O 3 and PM 2.5 sensitivity analysis
Emission Sensitivities Sensitivity of ozone (ppb) and PM 2.5 (µg/m 3 ) Summer Episode: May 25 - June 25, 2002 (2009) Winter Episode: Nov 19 - Dec 19, 2002 (2009) Regional 10% Emission Reductions Mobile (on-road/non-road), area, non-egu NOx, VOCs, SO 2, NH 3, and primary carbon (PC) Atlanta (full & sub), Macon (full & sub), Chattanooga (full & sub), Floyd County Point Emission Reductions Additional SCRs (NO x ) and Scrubbers (SO 2 ) at seven largest Power Plants in Georgia
Sensitivity of PM 2.5 in Atlanta (FS#8/E.Rivers) Sensitivity 10% Atlanta PC 10% Atlanta SO2 10% Atlanta NOx 10% Atlanta NH3 10% Atlanta VOCs 2 Scrubbers at Bowen 4 Scrubbers at Branch 2 Scrubbers at McDonough 4 Scrubbers at Scherer 4 Scrubbers at Hammond 1 Scrubbers at Wansley 2 Scrubbers at Yates Summer (µg/m 3 ) 0.19 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.00 0.19 0.15 0.11 0.38 0.05 0.09 0.05 Winter (µg/m 3 ) 0.36 0.01-0.02 0.15 0.01 0.07 0.03 0.07 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.06 Annual (µg/m 3 ) 0.25 0.01 0.00 0.09 0.01 0.091 0.098 0.070 0.150 0.030 0.044 0.037 Annual (ng/m 3 /TPD) 85.7 1.9-0.09 22.5 0.11 0.50 0.63 1.39 0.56 0.42 0.44 0.71
Sensitivity of O 3 in Atlanta (Conf. Ave.) Sensitivity 10% Atlanta NO x (20 counties) 10% Atlanta NO x (5 counties) 10% Atlanta VOC (20 counties) 10% Atlanta VOC (5 counties) 2 SCRs at Plant McDonough 4 SCRs at Plant Scherer 2 SCRs at Plant Branch 3 SCRs at Plant Hammond 2 SCRs at Plant Yates Avg response (ppb) 1.36 0.95 0.08 0.07 0.42 0.41 0.07 0.03 0.11 ppt/tpd reduction 35.7 41.1 1.5 2.2 60.4 13.7 4.6 2.2 9.9
Health benefits assessments for the O 3 and PM 2.5 SIPs
Preliminary estimate of $ benefits (all GA) from NO x and VOC controls in Atlanta (20 counties) $-benefits/tpd 40,000 20,000 0-20,000-40,000-60,000-80,000-100,000-120,000 NOx (annual) NOx (summer) VOC (annual) VOC (summer)
Metrics used in O 3 health studies Health endpoint Hospital Admissions, Respiratory Emergency Room Visits, Respiratory Mortality O 3 metric used 24-hr mean; 1-hr max 24-hr mean; 8-hr max; 5-hr mean; 1-hr max 24-hr mean; 1-hr max % of $-benefits* (% w/o mortality) 1.0 (30.0) 0.0 (0.1) 96.5 (n/a) School absences Minor Restricted Activity Days 8-hr mean; 1-hr max 1-hr max 1.3 (36.6) 1.1 (33.3) * - Hubbell et al., EHP 113, 73-82, 2005 (based on ambient data)
Reductions in exposure (ppb*person/tpd) to various O 3 metrics 12,500 Reduction in exposure (ppb*person/tpd) 10,000 7,500 5,000 2,500 0-2,500-5,000-7,500-10,000 1-hr max 8-hr max 24-hr mean 1-hr max 8-hr max 24-hr mean Summer only Annual 10% ground-level NOx 10% ground level VOC SCRs at McDonough SCRs at Scherer
Diurnal patterns in O 3 concentrations: Summer 0.5 65.0 55.0 0.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour O3, ppb 45.0 35.0 25.0 Redcution in O3 (ppb) -0.5-1.0-1.5 15.0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23-2.0 Hour Base 10% NOx reduction McDonough SCR -2.5 10% ground-level NOx reduction SCR at Plant McDonough
Issues to consider (1): Threshold effects Percentage increase in daily non-accidental mortality * per 10-ppb increase in mean 24-hr O 3 * 25 ppb * - Bell et al., The Exposure-Response curve for ozone and risk of mortality and the adequacy of current ozone regulations, EHP 114, 532-536, 2006.
Issues to consider (2): Nighttime exposure 1.06 1.05 Ozone (O 3 ) Metric Comparison * Risk Ratio (per IQR) 1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.98 0.97 2 =31.0 2 =12.9 2 =37.7 2 =25.1 2 =37.0 2 =0.6 2 =0.3 2 =6.9 2 =6.4 24-hr ave 1-hr max 8-hr max rush-hour day-time night-time 24-hr ave 1-hr max 8-hr max rush-hour day-time night-time 2 =3.5 2 =3.9 2 =5.6 RESP CVD * - Darrow et al., International conference on environmental epidemiology and exposure (ISEE/ISEA), Paris, France, 2006.
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Issues to consider (3): Model performance Summer Winter 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5/23/02 5/25/02 5/27/02 5/29/02 5/31/02 6/2/02 6/4/02 6/6/02 6/8/02 6/10/02 6/12/02 6/14/02 6/16/02 6/18/02 6/20/02 6/22/02 11/17/02 11/19/02 11/21/02 11/23/02 11/25/02 11/27/02 11/29/02 12/1/02 12/3/02 12/5/02 12/7/02 12/9/02 12/11/02 12/13/02 12/15/02 12/17/02 24hr (mod.) 24hr (obs.) 8hr max (mod.) 8hr max (obs.) 1hr max (mod.) 1hr max (obs.) 24-hr O3 mean: R=0.68 24-hr O3 mean: R=0.66 8-hr max O3: R=0.88 8-hr max O3: R=0.51 1-hr max O3: R=0.87 1-hr max O3: R=0.35 O3 (ppb) O3 (ppb) 24hr_CMAQ 24hr_JST 8hrmax_CMAQ 8hrmax_JST 1hrmax_CMAQ 1hrmax_JST
$ benefits from various O 3 control scenarios 350,000 300,000 250,000 $-benefits/tpd 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0-50,000-100,000-150,000 All Georgia Ground NOx (annual) Ground NOx (summer) Ground VOC (annual) McDonough (annual) McDonough (summer) Scherer (summer) Ground NOx (25ppb threshold) Ground NOx (summer, 1-hr metric) Ground VOC (summer) McDonough (25ppb threshold) Scherer (annual)
Reductions in exposure to PM 2.5 1.0E07 (ug/m3)*person/tpd (ug/m3)*person 1.0E06 1.0E05 1.0E04 1.0E03 1.0E02 1.0E01 Scrubbers at Branch Scrubbers at Bowen Scrubbers at Hammond Scrubbers at McDonough Scrubbers at Scherer Scrubbers at Wansley Scrubbers at Yates 10% ground-level PC 10% ground-level NH3 10% ground-level NOx 10% ground-level SO2 10% ground-level VOC 1.0E00
Sensitivity 10% Atlanta PC PM 2.5 exposure and benefits Sensitivity 1 (ng/m 3 /TPD) 85.7 10% Atlanta SO 2 1.9 11,700 2.96 10% Atlanta NO x -0.09 2,820 0.75 10% Atlanta NH 3 22.5 95,600 23.2 10% Atlanta VOC 0.11 5,40 0.14 2 Scrubbers at Bowen 4 Scrubbers at Branch 2 Scrubbers at McDonough 4 Scrubbers at Scherer 4 Scrubbers at Hammond 1 Scrubbers at Wansley 2 Scrubbers at Yates 0.50 0.63 1.39 0.56 0.42 0.44 0.71 1- calculated for the 3x3 matrix surrounding FS#8/E.Rivers sites 2- state totals exposure 2 (µg/m3)*person/tpd 324,000 4,160 4,420 7,970 5,950 4,740 4,640 5,570 million-$benefit/tpd 2 78.0 1.10 1.22 2.07 1.62 1.28 1.26 1.53
Another NO x related issue Effect on PM 2.5 Change in PM 2.5 due to a 10% NO x reduction in Atlanta (20 county)
Spatial patterns in reductions of PM2.5 10% NOx 10% PC 10% NH3 Scherer
Summary, preliminary findings and future research A coupled CMAQ/BenMAP model was used to estimate the health benefits of various O 3 and PM 2.5 control strategies. For PM 2.5 related benefits, consistency was observed and benefits were reported for all cases examined. For O 3, the choice of CR function (different O 3 metrics) and season/threshold had a substantial impact on the benefits quantification process. Issues: Ozone season or year-round effects/benefits? Threshold? Reduced nighttime exposure patterns not accounted for in BenMAP Preliminary evidence suggests no (significant) association between nighttime O 3 and health outcomes Are 24-hr RRs a reflection of peak O 3 levels? Model performance Even under the most beneficial O 3 control scenario ($340,000/ton), O 3 related benefits were still substantially lower (per-ton) than PM 2.5 benefits ($140,000-$78,000,000/ton).
Contact Information Amit Marmur, Ph.D. Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA 30354 amit_marmur@dnr.state.ga.us 404-363-7072