Agricultural Business & Investment Barometer France Forecast for the period 2017 February 2018 VDMA
Chapter 1 Statistics Page 2 Current/future economic situation and 2 12 influencing factors 3 Investment intentions in tractors 35 4 Financing forms for tractor investments 47
1 Design of the survey Target group: Farmers with more than 50 ha agricultural area CUMA n = 54 ~ 2.100 operations with tractors (Coopérative d'utilisation du Matériel Agricole = comparable to a machinery ring consisting of farmers) Representativity: Coverage by sample (farms): 42% of farms, 86% of agricultural area Method: Sample Farmers n = 375 ETA n = 78 (Entreprises de Travaux Agricoles = professional contractors) Universe 190.900 operations > 50 ha ~ 4.000 operations CATI (Computer assisted telephone interviewing) Bretagne Pays de la Loire Normandie Nouvelle-Aquitaine Centre Okzitanien Ile-de- France Bourgogne- Franche-Comté Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes Grand Est Hautsde-France Provence-Alpes- Côte d'azur Fieldwork time: 2017-3 -
1 Sample distribution of 2017 Central / North (n = 98) Hautsde-France East (n = 90) Bretagne Pays de la Loire Normandie Nouvelle-Aquitaine Centre Ile-de- France Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes Grand Est Bourgogne- Franche-Comté South East (n = 114) South West (n = 64) West (n = 141) West = Livestock regions Center / North and East = main arable regions South East = small farms / wine / fruits South West = grain corn Okzitanien Provence-Alpes- Côte d'azur - 4 -
1 W Statistics - Distribution of operation type by region - N E S 94 29 18 78 12 8 69 11 10 Farmer (n = 375) ETA (n = 78) 50 8 6 CUMA (n = 54) 84 18 12 n = 507; absolute values Z1: Before we continue, would you please tell me, which of the following situations suits yours the most: Are you? - 5 -
1 Statistics - Distribution of main focus of farm by region - N W O S 48 17 19 61 23 40 Field crop farms (n = 121) Cattle and dairy farms (n = 188) Pig and poultry farms (n = 9) 15 26 16 44 Permanent crops and horticulture farms (n = 12) Mixed farming (no clear operation focus) (n = 24) Other main focuses (n = 21) n = 375 farmers; absolute values; not enough n for further breakdowns S2: Please tell me your main focus of your business. We mean the operating focus you achieve the most turnover in your agricultural enterprise. - 6 -
1 Statistics - Size of cultivated agricultural area by main focus of farm - Farmers Total (n = 375) Field crop farms (n = 121) Cattle and dairy farms (n = 188) 50 99 ha 49% 40% 52% 100 199 ha 34% 39% 32% 200 ha 17% 21% 16% Ø farm size in ha 129 140 127 Q1: How many ha of agricultural area (without forest) do you cultivate? - 7 -
1 Statistics - Share of cultivated crops by farm size - Farmers Total (n = 375) 50 99 ha (n = 120) 100 199 ha (n = 172) 200 ha (n = 83) Cereals 89% 88% 91% 92% Silage maize 45% 46% 44% 45% Grain maize 29% 31% 29% 24% Oilseed rape 32% 23% 38% 45% Sunflowers 12% 14% 9% 12% Soy 4% 5% 2% 5% Special crops (fruit, vegetables, hop, tree nursery, wine etc.) 17% 18% 17% 13% Q1a: Which crops do you grow for the harvest 2017 (including the crops sown in autumn 2016)? - 8 -
1 Statistics - Share of total turnover on the farm by operation type - Total (n = 507) Farmers (n = 375) ETA (n = 78) CUMA (n = 54) Cattle and milk 48% 48% 13% 48% Arable crops (cereals, oilseeds etc.) 35% 35% 38% 33% Pigs 1% 1% <1% <1% Eggs and poultry 2% 2% <1% 3% Special crops (fruit, hop, wine, horticulture etc.) 7% 7% 6% 4% Others. 8% 7% 43% 12% Average values Q16: What share of the total turnover on the farm accounts for the following farm activities? Mainly: agricultural contracting work, construction contracting work and subsidies - 9 -
1 Statistics - Share of total turnover on the farm by region - N W O S Total (n = 375) Central / North (n = 78) East (n = 69) South East (n = 84) South West (n = 50) West (n = 94) Cattle and milk 48% 22% 54% 51% 45% 61% Arable crops (cereals, oilseeds etc.) 35% 61% 41% 21% 31% 29% Pigs 1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 2% Eggs and poultry 2% 5% 1% <1% 4% 2% Special crops (fruit, hop, wine, horticulture etc.) 7% 7% 3% 11% 8% 4% Others. 7% 5% 1% 17% 10% 2% Average values Q16: What share of the total turnover on the farm accounts for the following farm activities? - 10 -
1 Statistics - Share of total turnover on the farm by farm size - Farmers Total (n = 375) 50 99 ha (n = 120) 100 199 ha (n = 172) 200 ha (n = 83) Cattle and milk 48% 52% 45% 46% Arable crops (cereals, oilseeds etc.) 35% 29% 39% 41% Pigs 1% <1% 2% 0% Eggs and poultry 2% 3% 3% <1% Special crops (fruit, hop, wine, horticulture etc.) 7% 8% 5% 4% Others. 7% 7% 6% 9% Average values Q16: What share of the total turnover on the farm accounts for the following farm activities? - 11 -
Chapter 1 Statistics Page 2 Current/future economic situation and 2 12 influencing factors 3 Investment intentions in tractors 35 4 Financing forms for tractor investments 47
2 Business indicators having an influence on farmers sentiment and investment intentions Proved by significance test (t-test) Rating of the development of indicators 2016 1) 2017 %-change Trend*** Index of the agricultural business climate 3.8 19.9 calculated from top and bottom boxes of two questions Evaluation of the current economic situation (Ø) 3.45* 3.33* +3% Expected economic situation in the next 2 to 3 years (Ø) 3.26* 2.91* +11% Expected yield of harvest 2016/2017 (Ø) - 2.59** Income situation regarding the main agricultural products (Ø) - 3.30** Input costs for the production of the main agricultural products (Ø) - 3.40** Policy + Financing (Ø) - 2.87** Tractor investment intentions (%-operations) - 9.7% Ø values: * 1 = very good/ much more favourable; 3 = satisfying/ the same; 5 = very unfavourable/ much worse ** 1 = very positive influence; 5 = very negative influence 1) Source of French data before 2017: COPA COGECA ***Statistical method: The statistics t-test allows us to answer this question by using the t-test statistic to determine a p-value that indicates how likely we could have gotten these results by chance, if in fact the null hypothesis were true (i.e. no difference in the population). By convention, if there is less than 5% chance of getting the observed differences by chance, we reject the null hypothesis and say we found a statistically significant difference between the two samples. - 13 -
Oct.** Dec.* Oct.** Dec.* Oct.** Dec.* Oct.** Dec.* Oct.** Dec.* 2 The sentiment has increased within the past months, as prices for milk and wheat recovered over the past months and harvest 2017 is expected to be superior to last year. - Agricultural business barometer - 50 Index 30 25,8 19,9 Mean 2000-2006 (Germany) 10-10 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 France (n = 507) Germany (n = 850) Source of French data before 2017: COPA COGECA; * no data for France in December; ** German survey took place in September Index computed out of questions 2, 4: How would you rate the current economic situation of your farm? How would you rate the economic situation of your enterprise in the next 2 to 3 years compared to the current situation? - 14 -
Oct. Dec.* Oct. Dec.* Oct. Dec.* Oct. Dec.* Oct. Dec.* 2 The current as well as the future economic situation has developed positively within the past months, mainly due to a positive price development for ag. products such as wheat and milk. - Evaluation of the current and future economic situation - 1,0.. very good / much more favourable 2,5 satisfying/ the same 3,0 2,91 3,5 3,33 very unfavourable/ much worse 4,0. 5,0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Current situation Future situation Source of French data before 2017: COPA COGECA; * no data for December Questions 2, 4: How would you rate the current economic situation of your farm? How would you rate the economic situation of your enterprise in the next 2 to 3 years compared to the current situation? - 15 -
2 Respondents across all regions expect an improvement of their current economic situation within the next 2 to 3 years. - Evaluation of the current and future economic situation by region - Current situation Ø value = 3.33 2017 Future situation Ø value = 2.91 Reference value: 3.0 means the economic situation will remain the same in the next 2 to 3 years. < 3.0 = more favourable > 3.0 = worse West 3.39 Central / North 3.50 East 3.59 West 2.82 Central / North 2.87 East 3.08 South West 3.10 South East 3.13 South West 2.81 South East 2.98 2.55 2.56 to 2.85 2.86 to 3.15 3.16 to 3.45 > 3.45 n = 507; average values; 1 = very good/ much more favourable; 3 = satisfying/ the same; 5 = very unfavourable/ much worse Questions 2, 4: How would you rate the current economic situation of your farm? How would you rate the economic situation of your enterprise in the next 2 to 3 years compared to the current situation? - 16 -
2 The share of respondents evaluating their current economic situation unfavourable has declined compared to 2016. - Evaluation of the current economic situation - 2016 (Total)* (n = 1.500) 2017 (Total) (n = 507) very good = 1 2% 1% 2 16% 16% 3 35% 49% 4 29% 20% very unfavourable = 5 18% 15% Ø value 3.45 3.33 Top-Boxes (1 + 2) 18% 16% 1 = very good; 3 = satisfying; 5 = very unfavourable; difference to 100% = no answer; * Source COPA COGECA Question 2: How would you rate the current economic situation of your farm? - 17 -
2 Especially the regions Central/North and East rate their current economic situation as being less than satisfying. - Evaluation of the current economic situation by region - 2017 Ø value = 3.33 West 3.39 Central / North 3.50 East 3.59 South West 3.10 South East 3.13 2.55 2.56 to 2.85 2.86 to 3.15 3.16 to 3.45 > 3.45 n = 507; average values; 1 = very good; 3 = satisfying; 5 = very unfavourable Question 2: How would you rate the current economic situation of your farm? - 18 -
2 The share of pessimists regarding the current economic situation has declined compared to October 2016, meanwhile the share of optimists remains stable. - Evaluation of the current economic situation - 24 28 26 25 26 19 24 22 19 19 19 19 18 16 15 16 53 50 52 49 48 51 54 52 47 48 44 42 35 40 37 49 23 22 22 26 26 30 22 26 34 33 37 39 47 44 48 35 2012 2012 Oct. 2012 2013 2013 Oct. 2013 2014 2014 Oct. 2014 2015 2015 Oct. 2015 2016 2016 Oct. 2016 2017 very good/good satisfying unfavourable/very unfavourable Source of French data before 2017: COPA COGECA; difference to 100% = no answer Question 2: How would you rate the current economic situation of your farm? - 19 -
2 Respondents across all operation types rate their current economic situation as being on average a bit below a satisfactory level. - Evaluation of the current economic situation by operation type - Total (n = 507) Farmers (n = 375) ETA (n = 78) CUMA (n = 54) very good = 1 1% 1% 0% 3% 2 16% 15% 25% 16% 3 49% 49% 49% 43% 4 20% 20% 20% 27% very unfavourable = 5 15% 15% 7% 11% Ø value 3.33 3.33 3.09 3.28 Top-Boxes (1 + 2) 16% 16% 25% 18% 1 = very good; 3 = satisfying; 5 = very unfavourable; difference to 100% = no answer Question 2: How would you rate the current economic situation of your farm? - 20 -
2 Field crop farmers more often rate their current economic situation as very unfavourable compared to cattle and dairy farmers. - Evaluation of the current economic situation by farm type - Farmers Total (n = 375) Field crop farms (n = 137) Cattle and dairy farms (n = 217) very good = 1 1% 0% 1% 2 15% 12% 13% 3 49% 47% 52% 4 20% 20% 21% very unfavourable = 5 15% 22% 12% Ø value 3.33 3.52 3.31 Top-Boxes (1 + 2) 16% 12% 14% 1 = very good; 3 = satisfying; 5 = very unfavourable; difference to 100% = no answer Question 2: How would you rate the current economic situation of your farm? - 21 -
2 The share of farmers rating their current situation as good is a bit higher on farms with 100 199 ha. - Evaluation of the current economic situation by farm size - Farmers Total (n = 375) 50-99 ha (n = 120) 100 199 ha (n = 172) 200 ha (n = 83) very good = 1 1% 1% 1% 0% 2 15% 14% 18% 14% 3 49% 49% 47% 52% 4 20% 21% 18% 20% very unfavourable = 5 15% 15% 16% 14% Ø value 3.33 3.35 3.32 3.33 Top-Boxes (1 + 2) 16% 15% 19% 14% 1 = very good; 3 = satisfying; 5 = very unfavourable; difference to 100% = no answer Question 2: How would you rate the current economic situation of your farm? - 22 -
2 2017: Respondents are currently less than satisfied with their income situation and the incurring costs needed to run their operation. - Influence of political and economic conditions - overall categories - Income situation regarding... Input costs for the production of... Policy/Financing Expected yield of harvest 2017 vs. harvest result 2016 5... 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1 (very) negative influence (very) positive influence X 2017 n = 507; average values Question 3: How would you currently assess the following conditions with regard to your farm s economic development? Please tell me each time, if you assess the frame conditions as very positive, positive, neutral, negative or very negative. - 23 -
2 2017: Respondents across all regions are less than satisfied with their income situation and the input costs needed to run their operation. - Influence of political and economic conditions - overall categories by region - N W S O Income situation regarding... X Total (n = 507) Central / North (n = 98) Input costs for the production of... X East (n = 90) South East (n = 114) Policy/Financing South West (n = 64) West (n = 141) Expected yield of harvest 2017 vs. harvest result 2016 5... 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1 (very) negative influence (very) positive influence Average values Question 3: How would you currently assess the following conditions with regard to your farm s economic development? Please tell me each time, if you assess the frame conditions as very positive, positive, neutral, negative or very negative. - 24 -
2 2017: Especially ETA s are very dissatisfied with the input costs needed to run their operation. - Influence of political and economic conditions - overall categories by operation type - Income situation regarding... X Total (n = 507) Farmers (n = 375) Input costs for the production of... ETA (n = 78) CUMA (n = 54) Policy/Financing Expected yield of harvest 2017 vs. harvest result 2016 5... 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1 (very) negative influence (very) positive influence Average values Question 3: How would you currently assess the following conditions with regard to your farm s economic development? Please tell me each time, if you assess the frame conditions as very positive, positive, neutral, negative or very negative. - 25 -
2 2017: Field crop farmers are less satisfied with their income situation and the input costs compared to cattle and dairy farmers. - Influence of political and economic conditions - overall categories by main focus of farm - Income situation regarding... Input costs for the production of... X Farmers Total (n = 507) Field crop farms (n = 137) Cattle and dairy farms (n = 2017) Policy/Financing Expected yield of harvest 2017 vs. harvest result 2016 5... 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1 (very) negative influence (very) positive influence Average values Question 3: How would you currently assess the following conditions with regard to your farm s economic development? Please tell me each time, if you assess the frame conditions as very positive, positive, neutral, negative or very negative. - 26 -
2 2017: Larger farms ( 200 ha) are on average less satisfied with their current income situation. - Influence of political and economic conditions - overall categories by farm size - Income situation regarding... Input costs for the production of... X Farmers Total (n = 507) 50 99 ha (n = 120) 100 199 ha (n = 172) 200 ha (n = 83) Policy/Financing Expected yield of harvest 2017 vs. harvest result 2016 5... 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1 (very) negative influence (very) positive influence Average values Question 3: How would you currently assess the following conditions with regard to your farm s economic development? Please tell me each time, if you assess the frame conditions as very positive, positive, neutral, negative or very negative. - 27 -
Input costs for the production of... Income situation regarding 2 2017: The income situation for farms with cash crop and dairy production has a negative influence on their own economic situation. - Influence of political and economic conditions - in detail - Cash crop production (n = 393) Special crop production (n = 83) Dairy production (n = 154) Beef production (n = 201) Pork production (n = 12) Poultry production (n = 27) Cash crops (n = 384) Special crops (wine, horticulture,...) (n = 74) Dairy (n = 155) Beef (n = 181) Pork (n = 10) Poultry (n = 26) External financing condit. for investm. (n = 474) Expected yield of the harvest 2017 (n = 354) X 2017 Average values 5... 4,5 4,0 (very) negative influence 3,5 Question 3: How would you currently assess the following conditions with regard to your farm s economic development? Please tell me each time, if you assess the frame conditions as very positive, positive, neutral, negative or very negative. 3,0 2,5 Price development 2017 vs. 2016: Wheat: +11% (169.3 /t vs. 152.4 /t; Source: Matif) Price development Jan. 2017 vs. Jan. 2016 Milk: +22% (352.36 / 1,000 l. vs. 288.04 / 1,000 l. Source: FranceAgriMer) However, the milk prices are expected to decline below the 300 / 1,000 liters mark in April (Source: LaFranceAgricole) Farmers do not expect the start of new subsidy programs until after the presidential election in April/May 2017. Yield of harvest 2017 expected to increase by more than 30% compared to 2016 (Source: FranceAgriMer) 2,0 1,5 1 (very) positive influence - 28 -
2 The future economic situation is expected to improve within the next 2 to 3 years. - Expected economic situation in the next 2 to 3 years - 2016 (Total) (n = 1,500) 2017 (Total) (n = 507) Much more favourable = 1 1% 3% 2 18% 28% 3 39% 51% 4 28% 11% Much worse = 5 12% 7% Ø value 3.33 2.91 Top-Boxes (1 + 2) 19% 30% 1 = much more favourable; 3 = the same; 5 = much worse; difference to 100% = no answer Question 4: How would you rate the economic situation of your enterprise in the next 2 to 3 years compared to the current situation? - 29 -
2 ETA s are a bit more pessimistic about the future economic situation compared to farmers and CUMA s. - Expected economic situation in the next 2 to 3 years by operation type - Total (n = 507) Farmers (n = 375) ETA (n = 78) CUMA (n = 54) Much more favourable = 1 3% 3% 1% 5% 2 28% 28% 17% 22% 3 51% 51% 52% 66% 4 11% 11% 19% 4% Much worse = 5 7% 7% 12% 4% Ø value 2.91 2.90 3.23 2.80 Top-Boxes (1 + 2) 30% 31% 18% 26% 1 = much more favourable; 3 = the same; 5 = much worse; difference to 100% = no answer Question 4: How would you rate the economic situation of your enterprise in the next 2 to 3 years compared to the current situation? - 30 -
2 Cattle and dairy farmers are more optimistic about the development of the economic situation within the next 2 to 3 years compared to crop farmers. - Expected economic situation in the next 2 to 3 years by main focus of farm - Farmers Total (n = 375) Field crop farms (n = 137) Cattle and dairy farms (n = 217) Much more favourable = 1 3% 3% 3% 2 28% 18% 36% 3 51% 56% 44% 4 11% 16% 9% Much worse = 5 7% 6% 8% Ø value 2.90 3.04 2.83 Top-Boxes (1 + 2) 31% 21% 38% 1 = much more favourable; 3 = the same; 5 = much worse; difference to 100% = no answer Question 4: How would you rate the economic situation of your enterprise in the next 2 to 3 years compared to the current situation? - 31 -
2 The share of large farms ( 200 ha) estimating the economic situation will improve within the next 2 to 3 years is lower compared to the other farm sizes. - Expected economic situation in the next 2 to 3 years by farm size - Farmers Total (n = 375) 50-99 ha (n = 120) 100 199 ha (n = 172) 200 ha (n = 83) Much more favourable = 1 3% 2% 4% 2% 2 28% 29% 31% 21% 3 51% 48% 51% 59% 4 11% 11% 9% 14% Much worse = 5 7% 9% 4% 4% Ø value 2.90 2.97 2.78 2.96 Top-Boxes (1 + 2) 31% 30% 35% 23% 1 = much more favourable; 3 = the same; 5 = much worse; difference to 100% = no answer Question 4: How would you rate the economic situation of your enterprise in the next 2 to 3 years compared to the current situation? - 32 -
2 Compared to the results of the Copa Cogeca survey, the share of respondents expecting their situation to improve has increased. - Expected economic situation in the next 2 to 3 years - 23 20 17 19 18 17 20 20 17 20 20 20 19 22 27 30 44 44 45 38 41 37 40 36 35 40 38 40 39 38 37 51 32 35 37 42 38 44 38 43 46 38 40 38 40 38 33 17 2012 2012 Oct. 2012 2013 2013 Oct. 2013 2014 2014 Oct. 2014 2015 2015 Oct. 2015 2016 2016 Oct. 2016 2017 much more favourable/ more favourable the same worse/much worse Source of French data before 2017: COPA COGECA; difference to 100% = no answer Question 4: How would you rate the economic situation of your enterprise in the next 2 to 3 years compared to the current situation? - 33 -
2 In particular respondents in the western regions expect an improvement of their economic situation over the next few years. - Expected economic situation in the next 2 to 3 years by region - 2017 Ø value = 2.91 West 2.82 Central / North 2.87 East 3.08 South West 2.81 South East 2.98 2.55 2.56 to 2.85 2.86 to 3.15 3.16 to 3.45 > 3.45 n = 507; av. values; 1 = much more favourable; 3 = the same; 5 = much worse Question 4: How would you rate the economic situation of your enterprise in the next 2 to 3 years compared to the current situation? - 34 -
Chapter 1 Statistics Page 2 Current/future economic situation and 2 12 influencing factors 3 Investment intentions in tractors 35 4 Financing forms for tractor investments 47
3 Nearly every fifth tractor investment of the past 12 months was driven by the Loi Macron. - Relevance of the Loi Macron for tractor investments of the past 12 months - Total (n = 507) Farmers (n = 375) ETA (n = 78) CUMA (n = 54) Share of farmers with realised investments 20% 19% 25% 22% Loi Macron influenced investments 18% 18% 10% 8% Loi Macron did not influence investments 82% 82% 90% 92% % farms Questions 7, 9: Did you invest in tractors within the past 12 months, that is from 2016 up to the end of February 2017 (incl. definite purchases in February 2017 or order of machinery)? Thereby we mean those tractors for which you signed a purchase or leasing contract in the past 12 months. How much did the Loi Macron influence you tractor investments in the past 12 months? - 36 -
About 10 percent of the respondents plan to invest in a tractor within the next 12 months. Thereof, nearly half the investments are planned as a new machine. Conclusion: The total tractor market will decrease. - Probably planned (realised) investments in tractors - 3 2016 February 2017 2017 February 2018 Realised investments Planned investments Ø purchase probability Total 19.5% 9.7% 70% New 10.2% 5.2% 74% Used 10.0% 3.2% 68% Still open - 1.6% 67% % farms Questions 7, 8, 10, 12, 13: Did you invest in tractors within the past 12 months, that is from 2016 up to the end of February 2017 (incl. definite purchases in February 2017 or order of machinery)? Thereby we mean those tractors for which you signed a purchase or leasing contract in the past 12 months. Did you invest in a new and/or used tractor? Do you plan to invest in a tractor until the end of February 2018 (taking into account your expectations towards the economic situation in agriculture in the next 12 months)? For your planned tractor investment, could you please estimate in percent how secure a purchase of the machine will be? Is the planned tractor investment rather a new investment or an investment in used machines? - 37 -
3 Respondents in the region South East more often plan to invest in a new tractor. - Probably planned (realised) investments in tractors by region - W N S O Tractor investment Total Tractor investment New Total (n = 507) 10% 5% Central / North (n = 98) 9% 6% East (n = 90) 9% 1% South East (n = 114) 15% 10% South West (n = 64) 10% 1% West (n = 141) 6% 5% % farms Questions 10, 13: Do you plan to invest in a tractor until the end of February 2018 (taking into account your expectations towards the economic situation in agriculture in the next 12 months)? Is the planned tractor investment rather a new investment or an investment in used machines? - 38 -
3 The share of ETA s and CUMA s planning to invest in a new tractor is higher compared to the share of farmers. - Probably planned (realised) investments in tractors by operation type - Tractor investment Total Tractor investment New Total (n = 507) 10% 5% Farmers (n = 375) 9% 5% ETA (n = 78) 24% 10% CUMA (n = 54) 18% 10% % farms Questions 10, 13: Do you plan to invest in a tractor until the end of February 2018 (taking into account your expectations towards the economic situation in agriculture in the next 12 months)? Is the planned tractor investment rather a new investment or an investment in used machines? - 39 -
3 Field crop farms slightly more often plan to buy a new tractor. - Probably planned (realised) investments in tractors by main focus of farm - Tractor investment Total Tractor investment New Farmers Total (n = 375) 9% 5% Field crop farms (n = 137) 9% 5% Cattle and dairy farms (n = 217) 10% 4% % farms Questions 10, 13: Do you plan to invest in a tractor until the end of February 2018 (taking into account your expectations towards the economic situation in agriculture in the next 12 months)? Is the planned tractor investment rather a new investment or an investment in used machines? - 40 -
3 Smaller farms (50-99 ha) more often plan to buy a used tractor. - Probably planned (realised) investments in tractors by farm size - Tractor investment Total Tractor investment New Farmers Total (n = 375) 9% 5% 50 99 ha (n = 120) 7% 3% 100 199 ha (n = 172) 10% 7% 200 ha (n = 83) 13% 7% % farms Questions 10, 13: Do you plan to invest in a tractor until the end of February 2018 (taking into account your expectations towards the economic situation in agriculture in the next 12 months)? Is the planned tractor investment rather a new investment or an investment in used machines? - 41 -
3 Forecast model: Tractor registrations ( 50 HP) in France Update April 2017
Forecast of tractor registrations ( 50 HP) in France update of April 2017 the tractor market initially continues to decline and starts to recover at the second half of the year. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 3 Tractor registrations (> 50 HP) 31.634 28.830 27.034 Prognosis (> 50 HP) 33.108 28.571 27.016 24.968 Difference to previous year -9% -9% -6% -8% 11700 10700 9700 Registration data > 50 PS (Loi Macron effect) Prognosis > 50 PS Independent variables: Wheat price _production_index Current sentiment (Top Boxes) 8700 7700 6700 units Fläche für Grafik Fläche für Grafik -9%* -1%* 5700 4700 3700 2700 1700 Jan. - Apr. - July - Sept. Oct. - Dec. Jan. - Apr. - July - Sept. Oct. - Dec. Jan. - Apr. - July - Sept. Oct. - Dec. -21%* Jan. - Apr. - -4%* July - Sept. Oct. - Dec. Jan. - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 +6%* * Difference between forecast and previous year s registrations - 43 -
3 Forecast of tractor registrations ( 50 HP) in France update of April 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Tractor registrations (> 50 HP) 31.634 28.830 27.034 Prognosis (> 50 HP) 33.108 28.571 27.016 25.370 Difference to previous year -9% -9% -6% -6% 11700 10700 Registration data > 50 PS Prognosis > 50 PS Independent variables: Wheat price _production_index Current sentiment (Top Boxes) 9700 8700 7700 6700 units Fläche für Grafik Fläche für Grafik -9%* -5%* 5700 4700 3700 2700 1700 Jan. - Apr. - July - Sept. Oct. - Dec. Jan. - Apr. - July - Sept. Oct. - Dec. Jan. - Apr. - July - Sept. Oct. - Dec. -21%* Jan. - Apr. - -1%* July - Sept. Oct. - Dec. +11%* Jan. - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Difference between forecast and previous year s registrations - 44 -
3 Forecast of tractor registrations ( 50 HP) in France update of April 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Tractor registrations (> 50 HP) 31.634 28.830 27.034 Prognosis (> 50 HP) 33.108 28.571 27.016 24.437 Difference to previous year -9% -9% -6% -10% 11700 10700 Registration data > 50 PS Prognosis > 50 PS Independent variables: Wheat price _production_index Current sentiment (Top Boxes) 9700 8700 7700 6700 units Fläche für Grafik Fläche für Grafik -13%* 0%* 5700 4700 3700 2700 1700 Jan. - Apr. - July - Sept. Oct. - Dec. Jan. - Apr. - July - Sept. Oct. - Dec. Jan. - Apr. - July - Sept. Oct. - Dec. -21%* Jan. - Apr. - -6%* July - Sept. Oct. - Dec. +3%* Jan. - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 * Difference between forecast and previous year s registrations - 45 -
3 ETA s plan to invest in new tractor s with more HP on average. - Probably planned investments in tractors by horse power classes, farms > 50 ha - Tractors Planned investment 2017 February 2018 (n = 70) Planned investment 2017 February 2018 Ø HP < 80 HP <1% Farmers (n = 39) 138 80-120 HP 48% Operation type ETA (n = 22) 176 121-150 HP 25% CUMA (n = 9) 122 151-200 HP 201-275 HP 276-350 HP 3% 4% 18% 25% Main focus of farm Farm size Field crop farms (n = 12) 148 Cattle and dairy farms (n = 29) 124 50 99 ha (n = 9) 118 100 199 ha (n = 18) 140 > 350 HP 0% 200 ha (n = 12) 165 Ø HP 140 % of machines; filter: Farms with planned investments in tractors = low base Question 14: Please tell me, how much Horse Power will each of your planned tractor(s) have? - 46 -
Chapter 1 Statistics Page 2 Current/future economic situation and 2 12 influencing factors 3 Investment intentions in tractors 35 4 Financing forms for tractor investments 47
4 The average share of own resources/cash is quite low regarding the total investment sum. - Share of different financing forms for new tractors by operation type - Share of different financing forms of the total planned investment sum (volume)! Total (n = 35) Farmers (n = 22) ETA (n = 8) CUMA (n = 5) Own resources/ cash 6% 7% 0% 0% Bank financing with credit/ interest rate subsidies 11% 10% 18% 28% Bank financing without credit/ interest rate subsidies 44% 43% 57% 72% Manufacturer financing 28% 29% 0% 0% Governmental financing 3% 4% 0% 0% Leasing 8% 7% 25% 0% Average values; filter: Investment in new tractors planned; difference to 100% = don t know yet = low base Question 15: Concerning your planned investments in new tractor(s): What percentage of the invested sum will presumably account for the following financing possibilities? - 48 -
Your contact. Janine Heimann VDMA Agricultural Machinery Lyoner Straße 18 60528 Frankfurt Phone: +49 69 6603 1314 E-Mail: janine.heimann@vdma.org VDMA