Risk Proofing The Rotation Will Gemmill Jock Willmott
Agenda Risk Proofing the Rotation The Challenges creating risk Meeting the Challenges mitigating risk Summary rotations of the future
The Challenges 1. Static or falling yields Source: Strutt & Parker
The Challenges 1. Static or falling yields Winter Wheat 1st Wheat 2nd Wheat Winter Barley Spring Barley Winter OSR Spring Beans 2016 8.9 9.2 8.8 6.7 6.4 2.9 3.9 % change from 2015-13% -15% -5% -19% -9% -23% -7% 2015 10.2 10.9 9.3 8.3 7.0 3.7 4.2 2014 10.1 10.1 9.8 8.1 7.0 3.8 4.2 2013 8.5 8.9 7.7 7.3 6.0 3.4 3.5 2012 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.4 6.6 3.9 4.9 2012 16 5 year average 9.1 9.3 8.7 7.5 6.5 3.5 4.0 % change from 5 year average -2% -1% 0% -11% -3% -18% -2% Source: Strutt & Parker
The Challenges 1. Static or falling yields 2. Weed, pest and disease resistance i. Blackgrass, Ryegrass ii. Cabbage Stem Flea Beetle iii. Septoria
The Challenges 1. Static or falling yields 2. Weed, pest and disease resistance i. Blackgrass, Ryegrass ii. Cabbage Stem Flea Beetle iii. Septoria 3. Loss of pesticides and fewer active ingredients i. 4 active ingredients lost for every 1 gained 4. Reducing soil fertility and organic matter 5. Lower profitability
Meeting the Challenges mitigating risk 1. Maintaining Yield 2. Extending the rotation 3. Mitigating the cost of resistance 4. Improving soil health and structure i. Sludge, compost, cover crops?
Meeting the Challenges: 1. Maintaining Yield Maintaining high yields is key Wheat to remain cornerstone of rotations Likely to be grown less intensively in the rotation Year to year consistency likely to be more difficult: Top 10% - maintain consistency Recognise their constraints Tend to stick to winning formula Team Training On the ground agronomic knowledge Critical to application timings Plant counts and understanding where yield is lost
Meeting the Challenges: 2. Extend the Rotation UK Cropped Area (Ha) 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 2014 2015 2016 Spring Barley Oilseed Rape Beans Combinable Peas Source: DEFRA
Meeting the Challenges: 2. Extend the Rotation First Wheat (Milling) First Wheat Second Wheat OSR Spring Beans OSR Spring Barley First Wheat (Feed) Spring cropping needs to suit the soil type, could include: Sugar Beet Peas Double spring break for black grass control Smaller autumn drilling workload enables delayed drilling OSR 1 in 5 minimum, reduce flea beetle and disease pressure Quality wheat following a pulse OSR after early harvested Gp 1 wheat eg. Skyfall Late harvested spring barley followed by spring crop
Meeting the Challenges: 2. Extend the Rotation 700 600 Farm Gross Margin ( /ha) based on S&P 5yr average yields Accepting a lower Farm Average Gross Margin 70 lower by including Barley and Beans 500 400 300 200 100 0 W Wheat OSR S Beans S Barley Farm Average Average 5yr Rotation Average 3yr Rotation
Meeting the Challenges: 2. Extend the Rotation Spring Cropping is higher risk! How do we mitigate this? Cultivate dry and cultivate early Appropriate depth of cultivation to remove compaction Appropriate crop choice to soil type Following crop choice eg. spring barley followed with another spring break
Meeting the Challenges: 3. The cost of Resistance Resistance massively increasing costs: 1. Increasing unit cost of chemical 2. Increasing rates of herbicides and fungicides 3. More drilling capacity required Active/Product Name Nov 2006 Nov 2016 500g/ha Metazachlor 16 13.20-17 400g Propyzamide (Dow Kerb) 20.00 11.20-44 Glyphosate 360g/l 1.55/litre 1.65/litre +6 200g Cycloxydim (Laser) 27 34 +26 600g Carbetamide (Crawler) 10.40 10.70 +3 400g Pendimethalin 5.40 5.40-100g DFF + 400g Flufenacet (Liberator) 43 59 +37 150g Tri-allate (Avadex) 1.60 2.47 +55 60g Flufenacet+299g Pendimethalin (Crystal) Iodosulphuron+Measosulphuron (Atlantis) % 7.00 12.00 +71 73.50kg 85.50/kg +16 Source: Strutt & Parker
Meeting the Challenges: 3. Mitigating Resistance Grass weed resistance Later drilling Less winter cropping Potential fallowing Annual patches of crop destruction Insecticide resistance Eliminating/reducing frequency of rape in rotation Septoria Resistance Significantly increasing potential risk Loading business with cost Timing is critical linked to team training Variety selection
The on farm cost of Resistant Blackgrass Control Case Study - Bedfordshire The cost to the business of controlling grass in the two main crops has increased from 65/ha to 134/ha in the wheat 72/ha to 103/ha in the OSR Costing the business an additional 52/ha over the wheat/osr area Most of the increase has been in the wheat crop, higher rates, more products and product price inflation From 2007/11 2012/16 10% Less wheat grown
Crusoe (C) Skyfall (C) Gallant KWS Trinity RGT Illustrious Cordiale KWS Lili KWS Siskin Zulu (C) Claire Britannia Spyder KWS Basset KWS Barrel Scout JB Diego (C) KWS Santiago (C) Grafton Viscount Relay Dickens Revelation Leeds Evolution Reflection Graham Costello Yield t/ha Meeting the Challenges: 3. Variety Selection 11 9 7 5 Untreated Treated 3 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Source: AHDB RL Trials 2016
Summary Rotations of the future Rotation must be Profitable Yield Costs Rotation Must be Sustainable Resistance Adapting to change, margins, climate Soil management is key Appropriate cultivations, early, dry and deep if necessary Addition and maintenance of Organic Matter for soil resilience Sludge, Compost, FYM, digestate
Summary Rotations of the future Will be less winter sown crops Harder to keep fields in blocks Consistency will be key Likely to make use of double spring break Won t always grow winter cereal after a break crop Don t believe one cultivation regime is answer Plough Min till A combination will likely be required Direct Drill
Summary Rotations of the future How will they be de-risked? Higher drilling capacity to enable delayed and spring drilling Focus on appropriate cultivations for spring crops to mitigate weather extremes Wider rotations to reduce frequency of OSR and Winter Wheat to mitigate pest, weed and disease pressures Resilient soils to mitigate drought and flood regimes Achieved through cultivation, organic matter addition and drainage Variety selection appropriate to mitigate disease pressures Team training and management skill!