Conference on the Caribbean: a 20/20 Vision Washington, DC June 19, 2007 Panel: Energy for Competitiveness Juan Benavides jbenavid@uniandes.edu.co Universidad de los Andes (Colombia)
Contents Diagnostics -in a nutshell Policy principles and goals Opportunities and challenges Proposal
Diagnostics -in a nutshell One world-class hydrocarbons exporter (T&T) Oil-dominated energy e consumption o (approx. 93% of commercial energy use) Vertically integrated electricity firms in the smaller countries (Barbados, Dominica, Granada, St. Lucia and St. Vincent)
Diagnostics -in a nutshell Electricity prices in the Caribbean may be as much as six or seven times higher than in the US High costs of energy imports hinders competitiveness, increases macroeconomic vulnerability Economies of coordination and scope in regulation and energy policy in CARICOM
Policy principles and goals Transform the opportunity set funded by oil and gas economic o c rents (T&T) Consolidate sector and regulatory institutions Diminish dependence on oil imports and promote consumption efficiency Raise electricity firms performance
Opportunities and challenges The world LNG market is soaring LNG market expected to almost double between ee 2005 and 2010, 0, delivering e around 40% of global gas supply growth in 5 years (IEA Natural Gas Review 2005) In Europe and North America domestic natural gas production cannot keep up with hd demand d 91.2% of proven gas reserves lie outside of the main OECD market
Opportunities and challenges The world LNG market is soaring Impending economies of scale in sea transport t (240,000 m3) will cut costs, enlarge global gas markets and increase competition Trinidad and Tobago was the 7 th largest exporter of LNG in 2003 Sustained presence abroad implies switch to a new array of marketing, innovative contracting ti and hedging strategies t
Opportunities and challenges Diversification and the role of renewable energies On-going g demonstration-effect o effect ect projects to learn and deepen Solar energy in Barbados and some Eastern Caribbean islands Petrojam partnership with Brazilian Coimex to build a 40-million gallon ethanol plant to increase ethanol content in gasoline (from 5% to 10%)
Opportunities and challenges Diversification and the role of renewable energies Jamaica a investment e t in wind farming. Goal to reach a 15% level of diversification in its electricity mix by 2015 Set in motion processes fixing inappropriate policies, legislation and regulations Discipline to structure bankable projects and financing. i Role of CREDP
Opportunities and challenges Modernization o of electricity ect c ty policy and firms performance Monopolistic structure and outdated regulation creates barriers to entry of both conventional and renewable generation Space in large Caribbean countries for the participation of IPPs (Dussan 2006) Jamaica and Guyana have a serious electricity losses problem (22% and 35%, respectively)
Opportunities and challenges Modernization of electricity policy and firms performance Facilitate new entry Introduce regulatory incentives to improve service quality and create value Bottleneck: regulatory enforcement capacities
Proposal Focus on institutional capacities How to do vs. what to do Strengthening of permanent regional capabilities in energy regulation and policy formulation Capitalise on regional synergies and put together disperse technical talent in energy matters
Proposal Permanent Caribbean Forum on Energy Deepening the Energy Task Force experience Backed by regional universities and independent experts
Proposal Would support regulatory modernization and energy policy customizing by request Would facilitate industry and governments shaping of expectations in energy Would provide analytical support to on- going CARICOM initiatives (CREDP, Eastern Caribbean Gas Pipeline and the geothermal and electricity interconnection project) Would propose incentive compatible financial structures for regional projects
Conference on the Caribbean: a 20/20 Vision Washington, DC June 19, 2007 Panel: Energy for Competitiveness Juan Benavides jbenavid@uniandes.edu.co Universidad de los Andes (Colombia)