Renewable Energy Advances in the Heartland Kimberly Gencur Svaty 2017 Energy & Environment Policy Forum October 18, 2017
248,000 jobs $85 billion Data: Navigant, February 2017
12,000 jobs $10 billion
Top Lines in Kansas Goal to be powered 50% by renewable energy by January 2019. Mid-2017, Kansas joined the "5 Gigawatt Club," making Kansas only the 5th state in the nation to surpass the 5,000 MW of installed capacity milestone. Kansas generated 30% of its electricity from wind power from February 2016 through January 2017, ranking third in the nation for wind energy as a share of total electricity generation and fifth in the nation for installed capacity.
Top Lines in Kansas Wind Projects Installed wind capacity: 5,103.47 MW* State rank for installed wind capacity: 5th Wind projects online: 35* Wind projects under construction: 2 Wind capacity under construction: 874 MW Corporate purchasers include: Target, Google Energy, Microsoft, and Yahoo! Installed wind generation has doubled five times in Kansas since 2001 Current Wind Generation From February 2016 through January 2017, wind energy provided 30.0% of all instate electricity production. Number of homes powered by wind in 2016: 1.3 million (Source: AWEA)
Top Lines in Kansas Environmental Benefits Generating wind power creates no emissions and uses virtually no water. 2016 annual state water consumption savings: 3.6 billion gallons 2016 equivalent number of water bottles saved: 27.2 billion 2016 annual state carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions avoided: 6.4 million metric tons 2016 equivalent cars' worth of emissions avoided: 1.4 million Policy Kansas achieved its 20% by 2020 RPS a full five years ahead of schedule in 2015. In June of 2016, Governor Brownback called for an increase in the state s voluntary RPS goal to 50% by January 2019 an aggressive, but doable goal which will bring more than $4 billion in new investment to Kansas and create another 6,500 new jobs while attracting new corporate purchasers of a key Kansas commodity our wind power. With a stable regulatory and policy environment, Kansas again is a leader in wind energy development, providing thousands of jobs and billions of dollars in new investment across all parts of Kansas.
Top Lines in Missouri Installed Wind Capacity (MW): 659 MW State Ranking for Installed Capacity: 24th Under Construction Wind Capacity: 300 MW Wind Projects Online: 7 Number of Wind Turbines: 349 Percentage of In-State Energy Production: 1.4% Equivalent U.S. Homes Powered: 104,000
Top Lines in Missouri Wind Industry Employment: 1,001 to 2,000 Wind Manufacturing Facilities: 11 Total Project Investment: $1.4 billion Annual Land Lease Payments: $1-5 million Annual Water Savings (gallons): Equivalent Bottles of Water Saved: CO2 Emissions Avoided (metric tons): Equivalent Cars Worth of Emissions Avoided: 7.6 billion 57.5 billion 12.2 million 2.6 million POLICY A 2008 ballot initiative replaced Missouri s existing voluntary targets with a mandatory renewable portfolio standard (RPS) that requires investor owned utilities to supply 15% of their electricity sales with renewable resources by 2021. Wind energy has historically been the renewable resource of choice to meet renewable standards requirements in Missouri.
Enough U.S. wind power for 24 million homes, led by Texas Most wind power Texas (20,320 MW) Iowa (6,911 MW) Oklahoma (6,645 MW) California (5,656 MW) Kansas (4,451 MW) Source: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Annual Market Report Year Ending 2016
Wind energy is on sale in America: 66% off Source: Lazard, Version 10.0, 2016
New wind build strongest in the Midwest Source: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Annual Market Report Year Ending 2016
Cost of wind power falling with economies of scale Source: LBNL
Wind PPA prices are low
Wind capacity under construction stretches across 19 states Source: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry First Quarter 2017 Market Report
Wind provided 30% of new U.S. generating capacity over the past 5 years Source: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Annual Market Report Year Ending 2016
Wind power is increasing on the grid, reliably integrated The SPP grid across 14 states got 52% of its electricity from wind on February 12, 2017 Iowa now generates over 35% of its electricity year-round from wind 14 states produce over 10% of their in-state electricity from wind Source: U.S. Wind Energy Share of Electricity Generation, by State AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Annual Market Report Year Ending 2016
Operation & Maintenance
Fastest Growing Job in America Wind Turbine Technician
Wind will generate $85 billion in economic activity through 2020 mostly in rural areas
Each new turbine = 44 years of full-time employment Data: Navigant, February 2017
Jobs across America Top states for wind jobs in 2015 Texas (24,001-25,000) Oklahoma (7,001-8,000) Iowa (6,001-7,000) Colorado (6,001-7,000) Kansas (5,001-6,000) Source: AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Annual Market Report Year Ending 2015
Roughly 500 component part facilities in 43 states including Kansas and Missouri. At least 78% of the value of a wind turbine produced domestically compared to 25% in 2005.
Future of wind energy Successes Innovation driving down price Achieved 67% reduction in cost per kilowatt hour last 5 years Improved forecasting Continued R & D is driving new markets & buyers Made in America success story Reduced water consumption Energy Storage is on the forefront of change for the wind industry. Predict the cost per kilowatt hour to decrease by 41% in 5 10 years Impacts of energy storage on the wind industry will become clearer as the market evolves and distinct strategies emerge.
Trend: Major brands cutting costs & pollution with wind Source: Non-utility purchases by year of announcement, inc. physical and virtual PPAs, direct ownership, and large-scale REC purchases from a single wind farm, AWEA U.S. Wind Industry Annual Market Report Year Ending 2016
Trend: New turbines reaching higher winds and more areas Wind resource at 80-meter turbine hub height Wind resource at 110 meters
Reasons for falling wind costs include Economies of scale (turbines, companies) Technology accessing higher winds Optimized siting Predictive O&M More transmission U.S. manufacturing Policies more predictable
Wind power is increasingly cost-competitive 2016 Unsubsidized Levelized Cost of Energy ($/MWh) WIND Source: Lazard, Version 10.0, 2016
Future of Wind Energy Challenges Policy stability Transmission investment Innovation is leveling the playing field Solar technology advances & rapid price decline Other disruptive technologies likely in the next 5 10 years
88% of new wind capacity is in states that voted for Trump Source: AWEA 2016 U.S. Wind Industry Market Report
Wind thrives on Republican turf Source: AWEA Market Database Pro
Questions? Kimberly Gencur Svaty 2017 Energy & Environment Policy Forum October 18, 2017