The Value of Model Predictive Control Industrial Applications CT505 Name Maina Macharia Title Process Technical Consultant Date March 25/26,2015 www.rockwellautomation.com www.us.endress.com
MPC Web Enabled Composition Controller views
Typical Project KPI Monitor& Tracking 3
MPC Performance Metrics 4
NGL Fractionation ROI Example 5
Biofuel ROI Example Estimated Capital Investment Justification Calculations Margin Calculations ( /m3) year 0 year 1+ Selling Price of EtOH + DDGS $ 746.60 Pavilion Project $ 1,096,190 Budgeted Capacity 240,000 m3 per year Corn Cost $ 519.40 Maint. Agreement $ 75,275 Avg Ethanol Price $ 528 /m3 Gas Cost $ 0.08 PLC/DCS programming $ - Corn Price $ 186 /MT Enzyme Cost $ 10.50 Instrumentation $ - $ - DDGS MT/M Liters 0.90 MT/M Liters Electrical Cost $ 10.00 PC Hardware/Comm. $ 7,000 $ - DDGS $/Ton $ 243 /MT Denaturant Cost $ 15.18 Internal Engineering $ - Denaturant Costs $ 0.76 /Liter Total Variable Cost $ 555.16 Travel and Living $ 46,200 $ - Denaturant Percentage 2.0% Gross Margin $ 191.44 Total $ 1,149,390 $ 75,275 Enzyme Costs $ 10.5 /kl Capacity Increase Est Margin BTU/gallon 26500 3.0% 7,200 m3/y 25% Kj/BTU 1.055056 4.0% 9,600 m3/y $ 191.442 gallon/litre 0.2641721 Natural Gas 7385.983517 kj/lit 7385.983517 Natural Gas Costs $ 0.01040 /MJ Increase Ethanol yield Base Yield (lit/kg) Est. Annual Costs for natual gas $ 18,427,503 per year 0.80% $ 1,014,421 per year 0.3571 1.20% $ 1,521,631 per year 2.800 kg/lit Natural Gas Savings 0.0% $ - per year 0.0% $ - per year Benchmark Metrics Moisture Increase in DDGS yield New Plant Capital Investment 700 per m3 0.0% $ - per year APC Capital Investment 160 per m3 0.0% $ - per year APC Benefits Metric 8 per m3 Estimated Production Margin $ 951,020 per year Estimated Yield and Energy Savings $ 1,014,421 per year Expected Savings $ 1,965,440 per year 6
Large Markets Project Results Chemicals and CPG CMM Polymers Bio-fuels Typical Spray Benefits Dryers Typical Crushing/Grinding Benefits Process Typical Types Benefits Typical DDGS Benefits Evap/Dryer 5 Evaporators 8% production Kilns & Drying PE, PP, PS, PC Water 4 to12% Balance ethanol 2 to 5% production 4 to 8% prime product increase Energy Centers increase Stockpile Blending yield increase Ethylene Plants Fermentation Styrene Plants 2 to 5% ethanol yield 30 to 60 % moisture Process Types Process 2 to 5% Types energy 35 to 75% product increase Distillation variability reduction Crude Refining 20 to Milk 50% Powder consumption off-spec Cement reduction variability reduction Gas Plants Process Types product Coffee reduction 20 Minerals to 40% product Corn Ethanol 5 to Laundry 10% energy Detergent variability Fertilizer reduction 20-40% transition time reduction Typical Project Payback: Cane Ethanol consumption Conc. reduction juice 10 Ammonia to 30% off-spec reduction 3 to 9 months! 1 to 2% DDGS yield 3 to 7% feed stock increase Bio-diesel product reduction wastage reduction production capacity increase 3 to 6% energy use/gallon 7
Large Markets Project Results CPG Spray Dryers Evaporators Energy Centers Crystallizers French Fry Machines Process Types Milk Powder Coffee Laundry Detergent Conc. Juice French Frys Sugar CMM Typical Crushing/Grinding Benefits Kilns 2 to 5% & Drying production increase Stockpile Blending Process 2 to 5% Types energy consumption Cementreduction 20 Minerals to 40% product variability Fertilizer reduction 10 Ammonia to 30% off-spec product reduction Chemicals and Polymers Process Typical Types Benefits 4 to PE, 8% PP, prime PS, product PC yield increase Ethylene Plants 35 Styrene to 75% product Plants variability Crude reduction Refining 20-40% Gas Plants transition time reduction 3 to 7% feed stock wastage reduction Biofuels Typical DDGS Benefits Evap/Dryer Water 4 to12% Balance ethanol Fermentation Distillation increase Process Types reduction Corn Ethanol 1 to Cane 2% DDGS Ethanol yield increase Bio-diesel production capacity increase 2 to 5% ethanol yield 3 to 6% energy use/gallon 8
Dryer Moisture Soft Sensor Results Moisture Results = 49% Improvement Before MPC After MPC The Business Value is Achieved by raising the bar with Confidence Hot Air Product In 8-15% solids Solids In Product Out 45-55% solids Hot Air Cold Air Powder Out 9
Dryer and Evaporator Balance Value Plant Obedience (reduced variability) enables: Moisture Lift moisture targets to Limit or revised uplift Evaporator capacity Optimize Solids to current UCL to reduce variability Dryer capacity Improve evaporation capability within proven heat envelope Improve Quality & Consistency Optimize Evaporator & Dryer Efficiency Squeeze more value from the existing asset Produce more product with the same operating profile Reduce Variable Cost Sell more free water Enable product mix flexibility to gain more higher value products Reduce Rework - Product & Cost Reduce Energy Dryer & Evaporation Balancing reduces the energy cost profile per tonne of product produced. Hot Air Product In 8-15% solids Solids In Product Out 45-55% solids Hot Air Cold Air Powder Out 10
Spray Dryer Dairy spray dryer Inlet temp controlled with gas valve Exhaust temp controlled with feed pump speed Feed is pumped through nozzles and the backpressure from the nozzles is a key constraint Inlet temp sp to valve output, response of pid algorithm Inlet temp to nozzle press, response of exhaust temp pid algorithm rejecting disturbance from inlet temp change. Exhaust temp to nozzle press, response of exhaust temp pid algorithm. As with Inlet temp, omitting the overshoot will cause cycling and possibly trip the dryer.
Large Markets Project Results CPG Typical Spray Benefits Dryers Evaporators 5 8% production increase Energy Centers Process 30 to Types 60 % moisture variability reduction 20 Milk to 50% Powder off-spec product Coffee reduction 5 to Laundry 10% energy Detergent consumption Conc. juice reduction CMM Crushing/Grinding Preprocessing Kilns & Drying Stockpile Blending Process Types Cement Minerals Fertilizer Ammonia Chemicals and Polymers Process Typical Types Benefits 4 to PE, 8% PP, prime PS, product PC yield increase Ethylene Plants 35 Styrene to 75% product Plants variability Crude reduction Refining 20-40% Gas Plants transition time reduction 3 to 7% feed stock wastage reduction Bio-fuels Typical Benefits DDGS Evap/Dryer Water 4 to12% Balance ethanol production capacity increase Fermentation Distillation Process increase Types 3 to 6% energy use/gallon Corn reduction Ethanol 1 to Cane 2% DDGS Ethanol yield Bio-diesel 2 to 5% ethanol yield increase 12
Rotary Cement Kiln Typical Layout Raw Material Feed Stream Fuel Addition Fuel Addition Fuel Addition
Production Rate 4 Months Before/ After MPC 220 tph Without Pyroprocessing MPC Solution Multiple Slowdowns 190 tph =+14 % 220 tph 220 tph With Pyroprocessing MPC Solution
Large Markets Project Results CPG Typical Spray Benefits Dryers Evaporators 5 8% production increase Energy Centers Process 30 to Types 60 % moisture variability Milk reduction Powder 20 Coffee to 50% off-spec product Laundry reduction Detergent 5 to Conc. 10% juice energy consumption reduction CMM Typical Crushing/Grinding Benefits Kilns 2 to 5% & Drying production increase Stockpile Blending Process 2 to 5% Types energy consumption Cementreduction 20 Minerals to 40% product variability Fertilizer reduction 10 Ammonia to 30% off-spec product reduction Chemicals and Polymers Process Types Polymers PE, PP, PS, PC Ethylene Plants Styrene Plants Crude Refining Gas Plants Biofuels Typical DDGS Benefits Evap/Dryer Water 4 to12% Balance ethanol production Fermentation capacity increase Distillation Process increase Types 3 to Corn 6% energy Ethanol use/gallon Cane reduction Ethanol 1 to Bio-diesel 2% DDGS yield 2 to 5% ethanol yield increase 15
Before & After APC Comparison variables (PV-SP) Before APC STD After APC STD APC Improvement AIC201 12.23 4.48 63% AIC202 148.5 46.03 69% DIC241 2.540 1.29 49% DIC251 2.402 1.58 34% PIC402 0.01739 0.0032 82% AIC402 0.00254 0.000296 88% AIC403 0.00535 0.002977 44%
AIC201/AIC202)H2 concentration in Loop 1&2 reactor
Transition:V30G Z30S, APC OFF time: 7.5 hours
Transition: V30G Z30S, APC ON time: 3.3 hours 19
Large Markets Project Results CPG Typical Spray Benefits Dryers Evaporators 5 8% production increase Energy Centers Process 30 to Types 60 % moisture variability reduction 20 Milk to 50% Powder off-spec product Coffee reduction 5 to Laundry 10% energy Detergent consumption Conc. juice reduction CMM Typical Crushing/Grinding Benefits Kilns 2 to 5% & Drying production increase Stockpile Blending Process 2 to 5% Types energy consumption Cement reduction 20 Minerals to 40% product variability Fertilizer reduction 10 Ammonia to 30% off-spec product reduction Chemicals and Polymers Process Typical Types Benefits 4 to PE, 8% PP, prime PS, product PC yield increase Ethylene Plants 35 Styrene to 75% product Plants variability Crude reduction Refining 20-40% Gas Plants transition time reduction 3 to 7% feed stock wastage reduction Biofuels DDGS Evap/Dryer Water Balance Fermentation Distillation Process Types Corn Ethanol Cane Ethanol Bio-diesel 20
BioEthanol Process Overview Waterbalance MPC MPC Objectives: Optimize plant throughput Maximize ethanol and DDGS yield Minimize energy/gallon ethanol Fermentation MPC Distillation/Sieves MPC Dryers/Evap & TO MPC 21
The Challenge: Cascading Dryers Optimize NG energy in drying 2 lines, 2 dryers/line, 2 parallel lines Natural gas Dryers A, B Wet Cake Dryer A Dryer A moisture Dryer B Dryer B moisture DDGS Product Dryer C moisture Dryer D moisture Dryer C Dryer D Natural gas to Dryers C, D Copyright 2011 Rockwell Automation, Inc. All rights reserved. 22
Dryer Operations Snap-shot Inlet Dryers Outlet Dryers
The Challenge: Cascading Dryers 0.0201 MMBTU/lb 0.0275 MMBTU/lb Wet Cake Dryer A Dryer A moisture Dryer B Dryer B moisture DDGS Product Dryer C Dryer C moisture Dryer D Dryer D moisture 0.0221 MMBTU/lb 0.0354 MMBTU/lb Copyright 2011 Rockwell Automation, Inc. All rights reserved. 24
The Solution: Natural gas Dryer Optimization Task MPC Operator Minimize the Natural gas use Controlling moisture targets of each dryer Dryer constraint handling Recording of moisture levels Frequency of Natural gas target change Automatically computes dryer loading to minimize Natural gas Targets incorporate current moisture levels and are proactively adjusted Uses models of the process to proactively manage constraints Once per minute Once per minute Not done because it was too complex Targets set at installation and reactively changed once out of spec Only reactively changes moisture if equipment alarms are triggered Every 2 hours Depends on the operators judgment
Actual plant Results: Reduced Variability & Increased Stability Plant Key Performance Indicators Mean Value Change STD Value Change Abs Rel Abs Rel Plant Production Rate Total Corn Grain Feed [lbs/min] +15.30% -34.71% 200 Proof Flow [gpm] +17.61% -41.99% Specific Energy Consumption Total Gas [BTU/gal-EtOH] -11.70% -44.16% Natural gas for Dryers [lbs/gal-etoh] -3.73% -38.56% Total Natural gas [lbs/gal-etoh] -8.53% -46.50% Ethanol Yield Gallons of Ethanol per Bushel of Grain +0.59% -48.49% Significant reduction in standard deviation of all variables
Fermenter Data Reduced Residual Sugars (USA) Without Fermenter MPC Fermenter MPC online 27
Fermenter data Increased Ethanol Conc. Without Fermenter MPC Fermenter MPC online 28
Who is Windsor Utilities? 29
Pressure Locations 30
Drinking Water -System Overview Total daily supply capacity: 349 ML (92MGD) Reservoir storage capacity: 118 ML (31MG) Number of treatment plants: 2 Number of pumping stations: 3 Number of Elevated Storage Tanks: 2 Length of water main: 1,100 km (690 Miles) The Albert H. Weeks Water Treatment Plant supplies an average of 140 ML (37 MG) of water to City residents per day.
The Opportunity 238 Main Breaks per year (average) 44 average age of distribution water main (one of the oldest in Ontario/Canada) Increasing Electricity costs Inconsistent system pressures during peak/low demand periods
APC Faceplate in FTView P = Pressure Control M= Manual Control R = Running S = Stopped O = Optimized M = Manual VSD VSD
Before MPC Pump start/stop cycles
Results After with MPC When were the pumps started?
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