Solar Power - for Sustainable Energy International Symposium, Monday 5th of May, Stockholm External Cost of Solar Electricity - and the context Philipp Preiss Institute of Energy Economics and Rational use of Energy (IER) Department for Technology Assessment and Environment University of Stuttgart Philipp Preiss May, 5th 2008
Presentation Outline Aims and principles of Impact Pathway Approach (IPA) Important pollutants and impacts considered Example for impact assessment from emission to external costs Specification of Solar Electricity Technologies LCI data and corresponding external costs analysis Context Comparison with external and internal, i.e. social costs of other new technologies state of the art 2010 Social costs solar electricity - state of the art 2030 Summary Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 2
Aim of the External Costs - Methodology: helps to take into account all externalities in a consistent way when making decisions: Investment decisions Technology Assessment (subsidies, research support) Consumer decisions (e.g. by adjusting prices, by internalisation of external costs) Cost-benefit analyses, esp. for environmental and health regulation Green accounting Philipp Preiss May, 5th 2008
Basic principles 1) Pressures, e.g. emissions of substances to environmental media have to be estimated (LCI) 2) Assessment of effects/impacts (e.g. health risk) caused be the pressures relation between pressure and impact is in general not linear and impacts depend on time and location of pressure Bottom-up approach needed to account for the complex pathways: the Impact Pathway Approach (IPA) Philipp Preiss May, 5th 2008
Impact Pathway Approach (IPA) first part Emission = LCI data Transport and Chemical Transformation Damage Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 5
Pressures included: Classical air pollutants (NH 3, NMVOC, NO X, PPMco, PPM2.5, SO 2 ) Greenhouse gases Heavy metals & radio nuclides POPs & Dioxins Noise and Landuse change Impacts included: Human Health Crops and building materials Biodiversity Climate Change. Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 6
Example: Classical air pollutants From dust, SO 2, NH 3, NO x & NMVOC emission to air via dispersion and chemical transformation to concentrations and depositions of: Fine primary particles with diameter below 2.5 µm (PPM2.5) Coarse primary particles with diameter between 2.5 and 10 µm (PPMco) Secondary Inorganic Aerosols (SIA): ammonium nitrate and sulphate particles Dry and wet deposition of oxidized and reduced nitrogen Dry and wet deposition of sulphur Ozone (SOMO35: sum over means of 35 ppb) Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 7
Quantification of Impacts and Costs Relation between pressure and impact Concentration Response Function (CRF): Example: Additional Years of Life Lost =Σ conc. PPM2.5 * Population * 6.5 10-5 Number of Years of Life Lost [YOLL] due to 1 tonne of fine dust PPM2.5 emitted at a location in Europe leads to a range of ca. 0.01 to up to 15 life years lost depending on location and height of release. Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 8
Impact Pathway Approach Weighting and Aggregation Emission Damage Transport and Chemical Transformation Monetary Evaluation Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 9
Basic principles - Part 2: Quantification of Costs Preferences of society are expressed, and effects are transformed into monetary units: allows transfer of values units are conceivable direct use of results in CBA and for internalising via taxes possible. ( however, e.g. utility points would give the same ranking). Philipp Preiss May, 5th 2008
Monetary Valuation Health end-points Euro per case / per YOLL Increased mortality risk (infants) 3,000,000 New cases of chronic bronchitis 200,000 Increased mortality risk - YOLLacute 60,000 Life expectancy reduction - YOLLchronic 40,000 Respiratory hospital admissions 2,000 Cardiac hospital admissions 2,000 Work loss days (WLD) 295 netto Restricted activity days (netrads) 130 Minor restricted activity days (MRAD) 38 Lower respiratory symptoms 38 LRS excluding cough 38 Cough days 38 Medication use / bronchodilator use 1 Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 11
Quantification of Costs Monetary value: 40,000 Euro per Year of Life Lost Damage costs Example: 0.5 YOLL per tonne PPM2.5 * 40,000 Euro per YOLL = 20,000 Euro per tonne PPM2.5 and other air pollutants? Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 12
Concentration change of ozone [µg*day/m 3 ] due to NO x emission of a power plant close to Luxemburg Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 13
Population Distribution Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 14
Population * Delta Conc.* CRF numb. of life years lost Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 15
Specification of Solar Electricity Technologies at present solar PV, roof (900 kwh/m 2 a) solar PV, open space (900 kwh/m 2 a) solar thermal, parabolic trough (1900 full load hours, > 2000 kwh/m 2 a) energy carrier Technology net el. power at el. peak load el. efficiency at el. peak load availability factor (full load hours) tech. life time spec. Investment costs (overnight capital costs) spec. demolition costs (greenfield ) fixed costs of operation PV [MW] [%] [h/a] [a] [ /kwel] [ /kwel] [ /kwel/yr] poly cristalline, roof 0.00312 15 1071 25 9400 0 94 poly cristalline, open space 0.00312 15 1071 25 6500 0 65 solar thermal solar trough 80 13.2 1900 30 3360 3 50.4 Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 16
Material and Resource Use Relative to Photovoltaic (IER 2005) Material and Resource Use Relative to Photovoltaic Iron / Copper [%]; Bauxite [ ]. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Iron Copper Bauxite Hard Coal Lignite Gas CC Nuclear (PWR) Photovoltaic 5 kw Wind 1500 kw (5,5 m/s) Wind 1500 kw (4,5 m/s) Hydro 3,1 MW Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 17
Life Cycle Analysis LCI data derived with tool: Balance Solar PV open space (SO 2 ) Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 18
Emissions Relative to a Fossil Fueled Power Plant (present), 400% source (CASES 2008) 350% 300% 250% 200% hard coal condensing power plant solar PV, roof solar PV, open space solar thermal, parabolic trough 150% 100% 50% 0% CO2 CH4 NOx NMVOC PPM2.5 PPMco SO2 Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 19
External costs of Solar Electricity Technologies (2010 in Euro-Cent 2000, EU27) different impact categories External Costs [Euro-Cent per kwh] 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 solar PV, roof solar PV, open space GHG Radio Envi Hum solar thermal, parabolic trough Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 20
External costs of Solar Electricity Technologies (2010 in Euro-Cent 2000, EU27) different pollutants External Costs [Euro-Cent per kwh] 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 solar PV, roof solar PV, open space GHG HM SO2 PPM25 PPMco NOX NMVOC NH3 solar thermal, parabolic trough Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 21
External costs of Solar Electricity Technologies (2010 in Euro-Cent 2000, EU27) different life cycle stages External Costs [Euro-Cent per kwh] 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 solar PV, roof solar PV, open space dismantling operation construction solar thermal, parabolic trough Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 22
Context! Total Private Costs [Euro-Cent 2005 per kwh] in 2010 (CHP by Exergy & solar PV EU_mid, at present - New Technologies!) MCFC (biogas) SOFC (natural gas) MCFC (natural gas) biomass (w oodchips) CHP w ith an extraction condensing turbine biomass (straw ) CHP w ith an extraction condensing turbine hard coal CHP w ith backpressure turbine natural gas combined cycle CHP w ith backpressure turbine hard coal CHP w ith extraction condensing turbine natural gas CHP w ith extraction condensing turbine solar thermal, parabolic trough solar PV, open space solar PV, roof w ind, off-shore w ind, on-shore hydropow er, pump storage hydropow er, dam (reservoir) hydropow er, run of river >100MW hydropow er, run of river <100MW hydropow er, run of river 10MW natural gas, gas turbine natural gas combined cycle lignite IGCC lignite condensing pow er plant hard coal IGCC hard coal condensing pow er plant light oil gas turbine heavy oil condensing pow er plant nuclear pow er plant Private Costs 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 23
Context! Total External Costs [Euro-Cent 2005 per kwh] in 2010 with GHG at 19 Euro per tonne CO 2equiv. MCFC (biogas) SOFC (natural gas) MCFC (natural gas) biomass (w oodchips) CHP w ith an extraction condensing turbine biomass (straw ) CHP w ith an extraction condensing turbine hard coal CHP w ith backpressure turbine natural gas combined cycle CHP w ith backpressure turbine hard coal CHP w ith extraction condensing turbine natural gas CHP w ith extraction condensing turbine solar thermal, parabolic trough solar PV, open space solar PV, roof w ind, off-shore w ind, on-shore hydropow er, pump storage hydropow er, dam (reservoir) hydropow er, run of river >100MW hydropow er, run of river <100MW hydropow er, run of river 10MW natural gas, gas turbine natural gas combined cycle lignite IGCC lignite condensing pow er plant hard coal IGCC hard coal condensing pow er plant light oil gas turbine heavy oil condensing pow er plant nuclear pow er plant 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 24
Context! Total Social Costs [Euro-Cent 2005 per kwh el ] in 2010 MCFC (biogas) SOFC (natural gas) MCFC (natural gas) biomass (woodchips) CHP with an extraction condensing turbine biomass (straw) CHP with an extraction condensing turbine hard coal CHP with backpressure turbine natural gas combined cycle CHP with backpressure turbine hard coal CHP with extraction condensing turbine natural gas CHP with extraction condensing turbine solar thermal, parabolic trough solar PV, open space solar PV, roof wind, off-shore wind, on-shore hydropower, pump storage hydropower, dam (reservoir) hydropower, run of river >100MW hydropower, run of river <100MW hydropower, run of river 10MW natural gas, gas turbine natural gas combined cycle lignite IGCC lignite condensing power plant hard coal IGCC hard coal condensing power plant light oil gas turbine heavy oil condensing power plant nuclear power plant Private Costs ExternalCosts 2010 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 25
Total Social Costs [Euro-Cent 2005 per kwh] Ranking in 2010 solar PV, roof solar PV, open space SOFC (natural gas) MCFC (biogas) MCFC (natural gas) solar thermal, parabolic trough light oil gas turbine heavy oil condensing pow er plant natural gas, gas turbine biomass (straw ) CHP w ith an extraction condensing turbine hydropow er, pump storage hydropow er, dam (reservoir) hydropow er, run of river 10MW hydropow er, run of river <100MW w ind, off-shore hard coal IGCC hard coal condensing pow er plant w ind, on-shore natural gas combined cycle lignite IGCC lignite condensing pow er plant natural gas combined cycle CHP w ith backpressure turbine natural gas CHP w ith extraction condensing turbine biomass (w oodchips) CHP w ith an extraction condensing turbine hydropow er, run of river >100MW hard coal CHP w ith backpressure turbine nuclear pow er plant hard coal CHP w ith extraction condensing turbine Total costs Euro 2005 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 26
An estimation of Social Costs [Euro-Cent 2005 per kwh el ] in 2030 25 Social costs [Euro-Cent per kwh] 20 15 10 5 0 External Costs 2030 Private Costs 2030 solar PV, roof solar PV, open space solar thermal, parabolic trough Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 27
Summary - Conclusions IPA is necessary to estimate actual impacts of emissions because they can be very site specific Total social costs and not only environmental performance nor only private costs have to be taken into account External costs of solar electricity are low Social costs of solar electricity decreases in future. However, they will be still up to an order of magnitude higher than conventional technologies. More information ExternE: http://www.externe.info EcoSenseWeb: http://ecosenseweb.ier.uni-stuttgart.de NEEDS project: http://www.needs-project.org CASES project: http://www.feem-project.net/cases Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 28
Acknowledgements - NEEDS and CASES project - Life Cycle Inventory Data and Private Costs Data: Dr. Markus Blesl and Dipl.-Ing. Oliver Mayer-Spohn - External Costs, EcoSenseWeb: Dipl.-Ing. Volker Klotz Philipp Preiss Stockholm, May 5th 2008 29