UN Climate Council Words in red are defined in vocabulary section (pg. 9) To minimize the negative effects of global climate change, scientists have advocated for action to limit global warming to no more than 2 C (3.6 degrees F) relative to the preindustrial level (prior to 1750, before the Industrial Revolution). Achieving the temperature goal of no more than 2 C will require that greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations be stabilized at a level well below 450 ppm (parts per million). Earth has already experienced almost 1/2 of the 2.0 C. In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 C (1.4 F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. As a member of the United Nations Climate Council you will work within teams to identify and address the major factors behind climate change. Using Climate Interactive s C-Learn Climate Simulation Tool, you will analyze and understand the degree of change that needs to be achieved through your solution. Identify three of the greatest factors contributing to climate change. Factors include methods of electricity generation, certain lifestyles, transportation, deforestation, etc. List them below: Factor Why did your team choose this factor? Gather information regarding climate change and GHG emissions. Read through briefing memo (pg. 2-4). On a separate page, note at least 5 unanswered questions you need to answer before confirming your choices. After conducting further research, review your list of the top three factors and modify as necessary. Factor Why did your team choose this factor? 1
UN Climate Council Brief Global Emissions by Source United States Environmental Protection Agency, Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html Global Emissions by Gas At the global scale, the key greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are: Carbon dioxide (CO2) - Fossil fuel use is the primary source of CO2. The way in which people use land is also an important source of CO2, especially when it involves deforestation. Land can also remove CO2 from the atmosphere through reforestation, improvement of soils, and other activities. Methane (CH4) - Agricultural activities, waste management, and energy use all contribute to CH4 emissions. Nitrous oxide (N2O) - Agricultural activities, such as fertilizer use, are the primary source of N2O emissions. Fluorinated gases (F-gases) - Industrial processes, refrigeration, and the use of a variety of consumer products contribute to emissions of F-gases, which include hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Global greenhouse gas emissions can also be broken down by the economic activities that lead to their production. Energy Supply (26% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - The burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions. Industry (19% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas emissions from industry primarily involve fossil fuels burned on-site at facilities for energy. This sector also includes emissions from chemical, metallurgical, and mineral transformation processes not associated with energy consumption. (Note: Emissions from electricity use are excluded and are instead covered in the Energy Supply sector.) Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (17% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas 2
emissions from this sector primarily include carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from deforestation, land clearing for agriculture, and fires or decay of peat soils. This estimate does not include the CO2 that ecosystems remove from the atmosphere. The amount of CO2 that is removed is subject to large uncertainty, although recent estimates indicate that on a global scale, ecosystems on land remove about twice as much CO2 as is lost by deforestation. Agriculture (14% of 2004 GHG emissions) - global greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture mostly come from the management of agricultural soils, livestock, rice production, and biomass burning. Transportation (13% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector primarily involve fossil fuels burned for road, rail, air, and marine transportation. Almost all (95%) of the world's transportation energy comes from petroleum-based fuels, largely gasoline and diesel. Commercial and Residential Buildings (8% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - Greenhouse gas emissions from this sector arise from on-site energy generation and burning fuels for heat in buildings or cooking in homes. (Note: Emissions from electricity use are excluded and are instead covered in the Energy Supply sector.) Waste and Wastewater (3% of 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions) - The largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in this sector is landfill methane (CH4), followed by wastewater methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Incineration of some waste products that were made with fossil fuels, such as plastics and synthetic textiles, also results in minor emissions of CO2. Trends in Global Emissions: Global Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fuels 1900-2008 Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have significantly increased since 1900. Emissions increased by over 16 times between 1900 and 2008 and by about 1.5 times between 1990 and 2008. 3
Emissions by Country In 2008, the top carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters were China, the United States, the European Union, India, the Russian Federation, Japan, and Canada. These data include CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, as well as cement manufacturing and gas flaring. Together, these sources represent a large proportion of total global CO2 emissions. 2008 Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Combustion and some Industrial Processes (million metric tons of CO2) Emissions and sinks related to changes in land use are not included in these estimates. However, changes in land use can be important - global estimates indicate that deforestation can account for 5 billion metric tons of CO2 emissions, or about 16% of emissions from fossil fuel sources. Tropical deforestation in Africa, Asia, and South America are thought to be the largest contributors to emissions from land-use change globally. In areas such as the United States and Europe, changes in land use associated with human activities have the net effect of absorbing CO2, partially offsetting the emissions from deforestation in other regions. Research sites for additional background and solutions: United Nations Environment Program - http://www.unep.org/ United State Environmental Protection Agency - http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ United States Energy Information Administration - http://www.eia.gov/ United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - http://unfccc.int/essential_background/kyoto_protocol/items/1678.php Natural Resources Defense Council - http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/solutions/ 4
Solutions Factor #1: Solution #1: Solution #2: Solution #3: 5
Factor #2: Solution #1: Solution #2: Solution #3: 6
Factor #3: Solution #1: Solution #2: Solution #3: 7
Final Project Prepare a 1-2 page final report on your findings. List the top 3 factors contributing to climate change and the reasons why you chose those factors. Then outline how you will address those factors and why you chose those solutions. Visit C-Learn: Climate Simulation http://climateinteractive.org/simulations/c-learn/simulation Enter in the following data and run the program. Based on your solutions, estimate the following: 1) The year that emissions will stop growing in developed and developing countries (see Climate Simulation instructions for definitions of developed and developing countries). 2) The year that emissions will go down in developed and developing countries. 3) The percent of the annual reduction % 4) If part of your solution includes reducing deforestation include that number (this is on a scale of 0 to 1, 0 being no reduction, 1 being high level of reduction) or increasing afforestation (this is on a scale of 0 to 1, 0 being no increase in afforestation, 1 being high increase). Print your results from the main page and attach with your final report. 8
Vocabulary: Afforestation: The establishment of a forest or stand of trees in an area where there was no forest Business as usual: A scenario used for projections of future emissions assuming no action, or no new action, is taken to lessen emissions. Carbon dioxide: A naturally occurring chemical compound composed of two oxygen atoms each covalently double bonded to a single carbon atom. It is a gas at standard temperature and pressure and exists in Earth's atmosphere in this state, as a trace gas at a concentration of 0.039 per cent by volume. Some carbon dioxide is produced by plants during respiration. Carbon dioxide is produced by combustion of coal or hydrocarbons, the fermentation of sugars in beer and winemaking and by respiration of all living organisms. It is exhaled in the breath of humans and other land animals.] The environmental effects of carbon dioxide are of significant interest. Carbon dioxide is an important greenhouse gas, absorbing heat radiation from Earth's surface which otherwise would leave the atmosphere. Burning of carbon-based fuels since the industrial revolution has rapidly increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, increasing the rate of global warming and causing anthropogenic climate change. It is also a major source of ocean acidification since it dissolves in water to form carbonic acid, which is a weak acid as its ionization in water is incomplete. Carbon sequestration: A natural or artificial process by which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere and held in solid or liquid form. Also known as carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Deforestation: The removal of a forest or stand of trees where the land is thereafter converted to a non-forest use. Examples of deforestation include conversion of forestland to farms, ranches, or urban use. Gas flaring: A gas flare, alternatively known as a flare stack, is a gas combustion device used in industrial plants such as petroleum refineries, chemical plants, natural gas processing plants, as well as at oil or gas production sites having oil wells, gas wells, offshore oil and gas rigs and landfills. In industrial plants, flare stacks are primarily used for burning off flammable gas released by pressure relief valves during unplanned over-pressuring of plant equipment. During plant or partial plant startups and shutdowns, flare stacks are also often used for the planned combustion of gases over relatively short periods. Greenhouse gas: A greenhouse gas (sometimes abbreviated GHG) is a gas in an atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect. The primary greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Industrial Revolution: This was the transition to new manufacturing processes in the period from about 1760 to sometime between 1820 and 1840. This transition included going from hand production methods to machines, new chemical manufacturing and iron production processes, improved efficiency of water power, the increasing use of steam power and the development of machine tools. It also included the change from wood and other bio-fuels to coal. It began in Great Britain and within a few decades had spread to Western Europe and the United States. The Industrial Revolution marks a major turning point in history; almost every aspect of daily life was influenced in some way. In particular, average income and population began to exhibit unprecedented sustained growth. Kyoto Protocol: The international Treaty intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It adds additional provisions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Methane: A chemical compound with the chemical formula CH 4 (one atom of carbon and four atoms of hydrogen). It is the main component of natural gas. The relative abundance of methane makes it an attractive fuel. However, because it 9
is a gas at normal conditions, methane is difficult to transport from its source. Atmospheric methane is a potent greenhouse gas (per unit, more so than carbon dioxide). Nitrous Oxide: Nitrous oxide, commonly known as laughing gas, is a chemical compound with the formula N 2 O. It is an oxide of nitrogen. It is used in surgery and dentistry for its anesthetic and analgesic effects. It is also used in rocketry and motor racing to increase the power output of engines. Nitrous oxide gives rise to NO (nitric oxide) on reaction with oxygen atoms, and this NO in turn reacts with ozone. As a result, it is the main naturally occurring regulator of stratospheric ozone. It is also a major greenhouse gas and air pollutant. idered over a 100-year period, it has 310 times more impact per unit mass (global warming potential) than carbon dioxide according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Per capita: By or for each person. Preindustrial: Pre-industrial refers to the time before the advent of the Industrial Revolution, which occurred from 1760 to 1830 (different historians give different time periods). 10