Adding Value to Forest Resources: Pathways to New Opportunities Community Input Session: Forest Diversification Strategy Town of Grand Falls - Windsor June 15 th, 2016 Presented by Peter Milley, FCMC
Presentation Overview How Did We Get Here Disruptive change Our Current Context Fibre, harvest, industry Moving Forward From Here Assets, opportunities, new directions Making It Happen Challenges, risks, changes Your Thoughts? Ideas?
How Did We Get Here? Some major things changed in some important markets! And, we probably weren t paying really close attention.
How We Got Here Disruptive Change Ebay launches Kijiji Source: RISI, PPPC, NRCan, Halifax Global Estimates, American Newspapers Association, SEC
How We Got Here Disruptive Change North American graphic paper demand since 2000 (million tonnes) Source: NRCan Canadian Forest Service Selective Cuttings
How We Got Here Market Shifts
How We Got Here Market Shifts
How We Got Here Market Shifts Housing demand changes most significant Household formations in US 770,000 in 2014 Same as 2008 - < ⅓ level in 2012 which was short-lived spurt Well below sustained level of 1.5 1.75 million needed for normal housing demand and market US single-family housing starts up in 2014 from 2013 768,000 units < ½ levels that prevailed pre-2005-06 Multi-unit starts significantly increasing share Approaching Canadian levels Owner-occupied housing 61.1% in US Below 2004 peak of 69.2% and decline continues
How We Got Here Production Impacts
Our Current Context What do these changes mean here in Newfoundland and Labrador?
Our Current Context
Our Current Context Source: NL Forestry and Agrifoods Agency
Our Current Context Source: NL Forestry and Agrifoods Agency
Our Current Context Market factors drive fibre availability / costs Closed sawmills = no wood chips for pulp / paper Closed pulp / paper mills = no market for chips Existing wood-fuelled generating facilities experience supply and production disruptions Softwood harvests at 50 60 % of allowed, sustainable levels across country
Our Current Context One paper machine operating vs. seven in 2005 Number of operating sawmills reduced significantly only three sizable mills today Total harvest 2014 roughly 1.7 million m 3 59.1% of 2000 peak harvest Estimated reduction in forest related economic activity (GDP Contribution) in Newfoundland and Labrador - >$500 million in past decade Sector employment loss estimated > 1,000 since 2005
Current Context Changed Balance Historic Symbiotic Relationship Efficient and Effective
Current Context Changed Balance A New Symbiotic Relationship Needs to Be Found
Moving Forward From Here New Pathways New Kinds of Opportunities
Moving Forward From Here There is a base to build from Significant forest resources, though not enormous volumes Organising fibre flows to reduce costs, getting to right scale will be challenging But critically important to success Potential to repurpose existing industrial assets? Producing new things at old industrial sites? Potential for new technologies, new products? New combination has to utilise entire tree as did old industry
Moving Forward From Here CLT LVL EWP Systems Traditional platform advanced wood products most likely, and viable foundation for new sector
Moving Forward From Here Oil Chemicals, rubber, plastics 4% volume // 42% value Liquid transportation fuels 70% volume // 43% value Bunker fuels, asphalt 26% volume // 15% value Source: Browne, T., FP Innovations Thinking Differently About Resource Trees??? Hemicelluloses to chemicals 2.5% volume // 6% value Lignin / Materials 2.5% volume // 3% value Cellulose to dissolving pulp 37% volume // 76% value Black liquor, other solids to heat / power 53% volume // 15% value Source: Browne, T., FP Innovations
Moving Forward From Here Source: Queen s Institute of Energy and Environmental Policy Platforms more interconnected than generally recognised / acknowledged
Single product project unlikely viable cannot absorb all feedstock costs Moving Forward From Here
Moving Forward Some Examples UPM leads the integration of bio and forest industries into a new, sustainable and innovation-driven future. We develop new innovative and sustainable businesses. Biofuels, biocomposites and biochemicals are based on our extensive knowhow and strong position in the forest biomass sourcing and processing value chain. When we at UPM look into the forest, this is what we see: A future where every single wood fibre is used innovatively and efficiently. A world where bio and forest industries are integrated to create new high quality alternatives to non-renewable materials. Profitably and responsibly. Stora Enso is transforming from a traditional paper and board producer to a renewable materials growth company. Our focus is on consumer board, packaging solutions, biomaterials and wood products. Our heritage and knowledge in forestry gives us a strong platform to build for future competitiveness. Important building blocks in our strategy include fibre-based packaging, plantation-based pulp, innovation in biomaterials and sustainable building solutions.
Making It Happen Go New Places Growth Not in Traditional Markets Add Value Profitability Tough with Commodities Try New Products / Markets FAIL Try Again
Success Making It Happen Meeting challenges making changes Figure out a new, replacement symbiosis Focus on research, development, innovation Build relationships with significant, existing networks Try new ideas some will fail Try other new ideas
Over to You!! Thoughts? Ideas? Discussion? Questions?
Halifax Global Inc. Peter.Milley@halifaxglobal.com www.halifaxglobal.com EXCEPTIONAL PLANNING EXTRAORDINARY PERFORMANCE A copy of this presentation is available for download at www.halifaxglobal.com