China Energy Transition (2050): Coal-fired plant peaking load and V2G will be the core of deregulated electricity market designs supporting Green and low carbon electricity revolution Wang Zhongying Wangzhy @eri.org.cn Mar.17, 2016 国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所 Energy Research Institute National Development and Reform Commission
Coal consumption conflicts to the sustainable of social and economic development
Seriously environment issues!
2015 Coal-fired plant Coal and Smog 0-200 201-400 401-1000 1001-1500 >1500 Coal consumption density in 2012 Smog in January of 2013
PM2.5 density in November and December of 2014
Coal consumption is key issue for China Energy Transition: By 2050, coal should be controlled in 1 billion tce and the total fossil energy consumption could not exceed one third of total primary energy 20.8 bt CO 2 10.4-16 bt 12.6 bt 10 bt <2C IPCC Global 1990 Global 2050 China 2050 Energy growth 2% China 2050 Energy growth 1.5%
Energy transition trend: energy supply and demand reform focusing on power sector--abandoning coaldominated energy development concept Demand side power system transition: 60% electrification by 2050; Supply side green power transition: RE-dominated or mainstreamed power supply system; Continuously decreasing coal consumption for power generation use: technology innovation, coal power for peaking load, and fossil fuel accounting for less than 30% by 2050 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 能源消费总量 ( 万吨标准煤 ) 增速 (%) 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 China energy consumption trends since 1978 reform 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00-5.00
Strategy: Coal and Oil must reduction, Synchronously for Wind and Solar must quick Development, Natural Gas Development for meeting RE shortage Primary Energy Structure: non-fossil ratio 2020: 15% to 20% 2030: 20% to 33% 2050: 33% to 66% Final Energy Structure Electrification: 24% (now) to 60-65% (2050) Primary Energy Supply (2050) 65-75tce to 35tce Final Energy Consumption (2050) 48tce to 32tce
High RE Penetration Will Help Bring Back Clear Water and Blue Skies 10,00 Units: billion tons 35% THE World is also beautiful! 9,00 8,00 7,00 30% 25% 30,0 25,0 20,0 Units: million tons 6,00 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 20% 15% 10% 5% 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 1990 2000 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 China SO2 Emission High Penetration Scenario China Nox Emission High Penetration Scenario 2050 China's SO 2 and NO X Emission in High Penetration Scenario 0,00 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 China USA EU China Share of Global 2050 China's CO 2 Emission in the Global Contrast in High Penetration Scenario Note: China's data after 2010 is scenario data And data of other countries is trend prediction Data from IEA ETP 2014 0%
HIGHER ELECTRIFICATION RATE BRING HUMAN SOCIETY INTO MORE HIGHER LEVEL OF CIVILIZATION FORMATION 4.0 3.5 Units: billion tce 54% 59% 62% 70% 60% 51% 3.0 47% 50% 2.5 2.0 33% 37% 41% 40% 1.5 26% 30% 1.0 20% 0.5 10% 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0% Coal Oil products Nature Gas Electricity consumption Bio fuel SWH Geo thermal Electrification share
RENEWABLE POWER IS THE ESSENTIAL REPLACEMENT FOR FOSSIL ENERY 16000 TWh 100% 14000 12000 71% 82% 78% 88% 84% 91% 86% 90% 80% 70% 10000 57% 67% 60% 8000 46% 53% 50% 6000 4000 2000 22% 28% 23% 34% 29% 41% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 COAL NAT_GAS FUELOIL NUCLEAR Hydro WIND SOLAR MUNI_WASTE BIOGAS STRAW WOOD GEOTHERMAL WAVE RE share Non-fossil energy Share 0%
Wind Power and Solar Power Will Become Important Pillars of the Future Power Supply 3000000 2050:2690GW 2040, 2204GW 2500000 2050:2400GW 2040, 2056GW 2000000 1500000 1000000 2020,307GW 500000 2020,174GW 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 0 Wind PV&CSP Development Phase Diagram of Wind and Solar power in High Penetration Scenario
Action and Policy to ensure the realization of high penetration of RE by 2050 Economic transition: annual productivity for 50 million EVs by 2040 By 2020: 10 million Evs; by 2030 20 million and 30 million EVs, cumulatively with 100 million EVs or 40% of the total cars Energy transition: wind power and solar power development By 2020:300 GW for wind power, 200 GW for solar power By 2030:1100 GW for wind power, 1000 GW for solar power Power system reform: 5-10 years and a fully-competitive power market by 2025 RE can play full roles: smart/intellegient energy Production and consumption RE can reach everywhere: smart/intellegient network Energy internet Reform on state-owned companies Market shall decide the resource allocation Exception: state security Legal and regulation system to administer a country Citizens (market): negative activity list (what are not allowed) Government: positive activity list (what must be done)
Future Electricity System: It will be Reliable and Flexible (after 2030) By 2050: 500 million vehicles, in which 400 million EVs, which will take peaking load 870GW By 2050: Still have 900 GW coal-fired plant, but only for peaking load By 2050: Wind and Solar total 5100 GW, but we have peaking load power 1770 GW, which account 34.7% of wind and solar power 2.500.000 2.000.000 One day of 2050 in China 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 - T001 T002 T003 T004 T005 T006 T007 T008 T009 T010 T011 T012 T013 T014 T015 T016 T017 T018 T019 T020 T021 T022 T023 T024 NUCLEAR COAL Hydro NAT_GAS WIND WOOD SOLAR GEOTHERMAL BIOGAS STRAW MUNI_WASTE HEAT WAVE FUELOIL PUMPED_HYDRO
Do not ever think about that we can escape, our every each step determine the final outcome, our foot steps are moving towards the end of own chosen target. Milan Kundera